US-China Barometer 2013

John S. & Marilyn Long U.S.-China Institute for Business & Law University of California, Irvine

The stated purpose of the Long Institute is to “…develop important relationships between the U.S. and China...” Toward that end the Institute annually publishes the US-China Barometer, a measure of perhaps the most important relationship between countries in the world. The Barometer provides a multidimensional representation of the relationship based on a compilation of most recent and pertinent data. Public and political opinion are eschewed. Indeed, we would hope that objective metrics would influence opinions rather than vice-versa.

We have endeavored to collect and present the data objectively by using mostly third-party sources such as the World Bank. Where both American and Chinese sources exist we have discovered some substantial discrepancies – a good example is in Foreign Direct Investment. In the future we will collaborate with our colleagues in China toward determining the best ways to manage such discrepancies.

We are also considering developing a summary statistic combining the various measures as a sort of index of the relationship that might be compared over the years. However, this effort is thwarted in two ways: First, the mathematical problem is not trivial – combining the numbers is a bit like comparing apples, oranges, and puppies. Second, important details are lost in a summary statistic. So we deliver the Barometer as a 20-slide power-point presentation with interpretive notes (see below each slide)and the data sets (right click then choose “edit data”)imbedded. Users and viewers are most welcome to adapt the presentation to their own purposes. Just don’t change the data.

We expect and seek your criticism so that we might improve the Barometer in future years. Feel free to comment on our choice of metrics and our own biases that we have had trouble seeing. Please send your comments to John L. Graham at [email protected]

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Differences The presentation is broken down into two sections. The first presents important differences across the two countries. The hope is that the differences will subside with the continued economic integration of the U.S. and China. We also look forward to improvements in both countries on all dimensions.

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 United States China Source: World Bank (WDI)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Life expectancy at birth (years)

United States China Hong Kong SAR Source: World Bank (WDI)

1 0 4 3 2 9 8 7 6 5

Homicide rate (per 100,000)

United States China Source: UNDOC.org

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment

United States China Source: World Bank (WDI)

Internet users (%)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: World Bank (WDI) United States China

Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)

9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 United States China Source: World Bank (WDI)

10 5 0 25 20 15

CO2 emissions (metric ton per capita)

United States China Source: World Bank (WDI)

100 90 80 30 20 10 0 70 60 50 40

Corruption Perception Index (scores)

United States China Hong Kong SAR Source: transparency.org

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Piracy rates for computer software (% unlicensed use)

United States China Hong Kong SAR Source: bsa.org/globalstudy

4 2 0 12 10 8 6

Unemployment rates (%)

United States China Source: World Bank (WDI)

Interaction The second group of slides presents measures of the increasing interaction of the two countries. In almost respects we see a strengthening of the bi-lateral relationship.

200 150 100 50 0 450 400 350 300 250

Trade in goods ($ billion)

U.S. exports to China Chinese exports to U.S.

Source: census.gov

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500

Total U.S.-China trade in goods and U.S. trade deficit in goods ($ billion)

Total trade U.S. trade deficit Source: census.gov

4 3 2 1 0 10 9 8 7 6 5

Historical dollar/yuan exchange rate

yuan/dollar Source: databank.worldbank.org

Chinese holdings of U.S. treasuries ($ billion)

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Chinese holdings Source: treasury.gov

30 20 10 0 70 60 50 40

Foreign direct investment ($ billion)

U.S. to China China to U.S.

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Travel between countries (thousands of passengers)

From United States From China Source: tinet.ita.doc.gov

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

Educational exchange students

From United States From China Source: iie.org

Chinese language training in higher education in U.S. (number of students)

70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 U.S. students 1983 1990 1995 1998 2002 2006 2009 Source: mla.org

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

U.S. patents granted to invention teams that include both American and Chinese citizens

U.S. patents granted Source: patft.uspto.gov

WTO complaints pending and settled

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: wto.org

pending settled