Transcript WP6: Socio-Economic Impacts

MED-CSP
MED-CSP
Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
WP0: Introduction
WP1: Sustainability Goals
WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies
WP3: Renewable Energy Resources
WP4: Demand Side Analysis
WP5: Scenario & Market Strategies
WP6: Socio-Economic Impacts
WP7: Environmental Impacts
MED-CSP
Socio-Economic Impact of the MED-CSP Scenario
The scarcity of freshwater resources is challenging food independency and social stability of a growing population in MENA. Efficient production
and use of freshwater is a vital issue in this region. The pressing need for sea water desalination leads to higher energy demand and to an
unavoidable additional burden for the national economies. There is no sustainable solution for water security based on fossil or nuclear energy, and
moreover, there is a growing conflict between domestic consumption and export of fossil fuels. At present, we experience increasing pressure on
fossil fuel resources on a global scale, and a painful elevation of fuel prices. Renewable energies and in a first place concentrated solar thermal
power offers a solution. Renewable energies can relieve the national economies from energy and water subsidies through:
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lower cost of primary energy
lower external costs of energy
income from export of solar electricity
income from export of saved fuels
income from emission trading
In the coming decades, the MENA countries are facing an era of strong economic growth. In the long term, this process would place the MENA
economies on equal eye level with Europe. However, the increasing scarcity of water and the elevated cost of fossil fuels will burden their economic
development just in the critical phase of this period, possibly depriving them from their right to follow this path of economic equalization. At the end
of the oil-age, the MENA countries must now shift to their more plentiful and long-lasting domestic energy sources: renewable energies. This
process requires not more than adequate initial investment by the governments of the EU-MENA region. The benefits are numerous: The direct
costs of energy production and the external (social) costs of the damages induced by power generation can be reduced. Additional national income
can be generated by exporting not only saved fuels, but also renewable electricity to Europe. The availability of fossil fuels will be stretched over
centuries and its consumption reduced to a level compatible with the environment. Oil wars will become obsolete. Future generations will still be
able to use the valuable oil and gas resources while the MENA region will become wealthy and economically strong. The fact that renewable
energies are much more evenly distributed than oil or gas reserves will lead to an eye-level approximation of the national economies of the EUMENA region. The economic gap between countries like Yemen and Spain will slowly disappear to the benefit of both.
Arable land resources in MENA and world wide are disappearing at a speed of several hectares per minute. Concentrating solar multipurpose
plants in the margins of the desert could generate solar electricity for domestic use and export, freshwater from seawater desalination and provide
shade for agriculture and other human activities. Such plants could turn waste land into arable land and create labor opportunities in the agriculture
and food sector. Tourism and other industries could follow. Desertification could be stopped.
Using solar energy means manufacturing machines that use renewable energies. It means replacing minerals from the subsoil by capital goods.
Renewable energies require a lot of labor on all industrial levels from base materials like steel, glass and concrete to civil engineering and high
tech-applications. Increased industrial activities will create job opportunities and reduce the brain-drain from MENA to the industrial countries.
Solar energy and saltwater are unlimited resources if used in a way compatible with environmental and socio-economical constraints. The
economic figures of most renewable energies indicate clearly that within a manageable time span they will become much more cost effective than
fossil fuels. Renewable energies are the least cost option for energy and water security in MENA. It is obvious that it does not make any sense
to wait. This process must start immediately.
MED-CSP
Technology Learning Curves: CSP is not an Exception
MED-CSP
Specific CSP-Component Cost
$/Unit
Cost Learning Curves of CSP Components
350
300
5 MW
250
50 – 100 MW
200
200 – 400 MW
150
100
50
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Collector Field $/m²
Storage $/kWh
2060
MED-CSP
Specific Investment of Power Technologies
Spec. Invest. $/kW
Wind
Photovoltaics
Geothermal
Biomass
CSP Plants
Wave / Tidal
Hydropower
Oil / Gas
Coal
10000
9000
2000
1550
5500
11714
2500
3098
3000
1800
550
1150
2010
1280
2830
4530
2000
3388
2500
1800
540
1150
2020
950
1590
3249
1700
4662
2250
1800
530
1150
2030
930
1250
2791
1670
4332
2100
1800
520
1150
2040
920
1010
2700
1660
4185
2050
1800
510
1150
2050
900
910
2654
1650
4134
2000
1800
500
1150
Specific Investment [$/kW]
8000
Wind
Photovoltaics
Geothermal
Biomass
CSP Plants
Wave / Tidal
Hydropower
Oil / Gas
Coal
7000
6000
increased solar share
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
MED-CSP
Electricity Cost of Power Technologies (Example)
LEC New Plants c/kWh
Wind
Photovoltaics
Geothermal
Biomass
CSP Plants
Wave / Tidal
Hydropower
Oil / Gas
Coal
Discount Rate 5 %
2000-$
Egypt
2000
6.2
31.9
19.1
7.6
7.9
0.0
2.9
5.4
4.0
2010
5.2
14.7
7.4
6.2
7.1
0.0
3.0
5.8
4.2
2020
3.8
7.4
5.3
5.4
5.2
0.0
3.1
6.2
4.5
2030
3.7
5.8
4.5
5.3
4.5
0.0
3.1
6.7
4.8
2040
3.7
4.6
4.4
5.2
4.1
0.0
3.2
7.2
5.1
Electricity Cost of New Plants
[c/kWh]
30
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
2050
3.6
4.2
4.3
5.2
4.0
0.0
3.3
7.8
5.5
MED-CSP
General Parameters used for the Scenario Calculations
and Example for Typical Electricity Costs in the Starting Phase
MED-CSP
/DLR 2004/
Fuel Cost (2000)
Crude Oil
25.0 $/bbl
15.1
Heavy Fuel Oil
184 $/t
15.1
Natural Gas
4.2 $/GJ
15.1
Coal
49.0 $/t
6.0
Discount Rate
Insurance
O&M
Flh
ST Coal
ST Oil
CC NG
Wind
CSP
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
$/MWh
$/MWh
$/MWh
$/MWh
Present
/oilnergy.com/
Fuel Cost (2004)
36.0 $/bbl
21.7
270 $/t
22.1
6.0 $/GJ
21.6
55.0 $/t
6.8
5.0%
real
ST Coal
0.5%
3.5%
5000
ST Oil
0.5%
2.5%
5000
CC NG
0.5%
2.5%
5000
$/kW
1150
850
550
1280
3100
1800
4350
2000
c/kWh
4.5
6.7
5.3
7.4
8.2
6.2
6.4
8.2
Life/y
40
30
30
15
40
50
30
30
Wind
0.5%
1.5%
2000
$/MWh
$/MWh
$/MWh
$/MWh
CSP
0.5%
3.0%
8000
Effic. Fuel Esc.
40%
1.0%
40%
1.0%
48%
1.0%
37%
1.0%
13.5%
35%
0.0%
Hydro Geothermal
0.5%
0.5%
3.0%
4.0%
2600
7500
Biomass
0.5%
3.5%
3700
MED-CSP
ct/kWh
Cost of Electricity from Coal, Gas & Nuclear Energy
cost of CO2Sequestration
MED-CSP
International Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
equiv. to
40 $/bbl
Crude Oils
Natural Gas
MED-CSP
MED-CSP
Solar vs. Fossil Energy Costs during Market Introduction
with Varying Return on Investment and Fuel Escalation
2020
2015
2050
Start: 2006
Fuel Cost in $/barrel
70
possible from today’s
perspective
60
50
IEA
scenario
40
30
20
10
0
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000 1000000
Installed Capacity in MW and 1000 m³/d
fossil fuel cost:
escalation rates from 0.4 to 1.2 %/y
equivalent solar energy cost:
return on investment from 6 to 12 %/y
Source:
IEA
MED-CSP
Dollars per cubic meter
Dollars per cubic meter
MED-CSP
The present status of water pricing
in the MENA Region /Saghir 2003/
a) Irrigation Sector
b) Municipal Sector
MED-CSP
State of the Art of Seawater Desalination
Parameter
Heat
Electricity Steam
Temperature
Cost
Product
Water
Quality
Unit
kWh/m³
kWh/m³
°C
$/m³
ppm
Multi-Stage-Flash
Distillation
25-80
3-5
90-120
0.7-1.8
< 50
Multi-Effect Distillation
25-80
1-2
55-120
0.3-1.5
< 50
Reverse Osmosis
-
3-10
-
0.3-1.5
300-500
Sources:
La Desalacion como alternativa al PHN, Gobierno de Aragon, 2001
Review of Water Resources and Desalination Technologies, Sandia 2003
MED-CSP
Cost of Water in $/m³
Cost of Water desalted by CSP in Cogeneration with MED
for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Electricity Cost 4 ct/kWh
3.0
Cost Range in Selected Remote Regions
2.5
Cost Range of City Water in MENA
2.0
1.5
14 % Interest Rate
1.0
9 % Interest Rate
0.5
4 % Interest Rate
Cost of Irrigation
0.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
2060
MED-CSP
Electricity Cost in $/kWh
Cost of Electricity by CSP in Cogeneration with MED
for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Water Cost 0.50 $/m³
0.120
Peaking Load
0.100
14 % Interest Rate
0.080
9 % Interest Rate
0.060
0.040
4 % Interest Rate
Base Load
0.020
0.000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
MED-CSP
Alternatives for Sustainable Energy and Water in MENA
 Oil/Gas: High Cost Escalation
Growing Domestic Needs will compete with Exports
Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)
 Coal:
Less Cost Escalation than Oil & Gas
MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer
New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment
Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)
 Nuclear: Despite of massive subsidies < 1 % Market Share
MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer
New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment
Security vs. Cost (Nuclear Waste Disposal, etc. etc.)
 Solar:
Cost De-Escalation and High Growth Rates
MENA will export Oil/Gas + Solar Power
New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment
Climate + Security + Low Cost
MED-CSP
Population density in persons/km² in the EU-MENA Region
Source: LandScan 2004
MED-CSP
Satellite View of the EU-MENA Region at Night
MED-CSP
Projection of a future Trans-Mediterranean Grid interconnecting
the Best Sites for Renewable Energy Use in EU-MENA
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
EURO-MED
possible
further interconnections
MED-CSP
Population density in persons/km² in the Middle East
Source: LandScan 2004
MED-CSP
Population density in persons/km² in Maghreb and Southern Europe
Source: LandScan 2004