Transcript Action Plan 2014-16: lines of activity

A Vision of Change for the Mediterranean
Michelangelo Celozzi - Secretary General
Set Plan Conference 2014
10th December 2014, Rome
1
The World Energy Scenario
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s
about the future.”
(Niels Bohr)
The World Energy Scenario
The evolution of the energy scenario
•
extraordinary evolution, caused by the emergence of new technologies
•
in the last decade, new technologies with the greatest impact were not
renewable ones (solar, wind), but new technologies for the extraction of
hydrocarbons
Example
100
80
60
40
20
0
82 %
18 %
RES (excl. Hydro)
Fossil Fuels
incidence (%) on 2013 world energy
production mix
the same weight
of 25 years ago.
Source
IEA World Energy Outlook
2013
The Impact of Technology
In a few years these new extraction techniques have enabled the
exploitation of hydrocarbons, previously considered not accessible for
technical or economic reasons.
Extraction technologies
Impact
• Techniques of hydraulic fracturing • drastically reduction of the production cost of
and horizontal and pluri-directional
at least two types of non-conventional
drilling
hydrocarbons (shale and tight*).
Transformation technologies
Impact
• Gas To Liquid (GTL) technologies • diversification of energy products for end-use
End-use applications
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Impact
• Flexibility vs Economy
* Shale: from clastic sedimentary rock; Tight: from sandy formations with low permeability
The Impact of new reserves 1-2
Worldwide availability evolution
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013
8000
600
7.000
7000
past proven
reserves
6000
5000
Unconventional
known resources
3000
1000
500
Past proven
reserves
400
4000
2000
500
300
200
1.300
30
current global
yearly demand
0
100
Unconventional
known
resources
160
3,2
Global yearly
demand
0
OIL (billion of barrels)
concentrated in a few Countries
(mainly Middle Eastern Countries)
• more than 5 times the proven reserves
• coverage of the current global yearly demand for
more than 2 centuries
• present in several areas, including North America
NB: Potential reserves gas appraisal (methane
hydrates*): between 1.000 and 5.000 trillions m3
GAS (trillion m3)
concentrated in a few Countries (mainly
Middle Eastern and North African
Countries and Russia)
• more than 3 times the proven reserves;
• coverage of the current global yearly
demand for more than 160 years
• present in several areas
* Methane hydrate is a cage-like lattice of ice inside of
which are trapped molecules of methane
The Impact of new reserves 2-2
The USA case
Oil production growth (million b/day)
16
Gas production 2013 (billion m3)
15
14
2007
12
10
10
8
6
4
2
0
unconventional
gas
2013
6.8
280
400
conventional
gas
next 4-5
years
(appraisal)
NB: In two years (2008-2009) the gas production
increased by 15% (more than 80 billion m3/year,
most of the total Italian consumption)
(SOURCE: BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 2014; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013)
Open issues
• Which will be the impact on the base power generation
(nuclear and coal-fired)?
• Oil price will still be the energy reference price : it is correct?
• Reference gas prices currently fall: it will go up, will go down
or stay the same?
• Reference conditions suggest that it will fall. If it is correct,
when and how?
• If Reference gas prices will go down, which will be the role of
RES (range of technologies on the grid parity)?
• If gas become cheaper than coal, which will be
environmental advantages (and the consequent impact of
this issues on the final price)?
• The future reference mix of generation will be gas-RES. It is
true, wrong or partially true?
And Med-TSO?
Build a framework of rational hypothesis of evolution for the electricity sector
Med-TSO approach for
Job and Security in the
Area
Uncertainty
How to manage it?
Flexibility
Security
Efficiency
A more Integrated Euro Mediterranean
System
Share the
Scenario
Share the Criteria
A regional grid
planning
Members of Med-TSO
17 Countries - 19 TSO
Albania - OST
Algeria – SONELGAZ, GRTE, OS
Egypt - EETC
France - RTE
Greece - ADMIE
Israel - IEC
Italy - TERNA
SI
Jordan – NEPCO
Libya – GECOL
FR
SI
IT
Morocco - ONE
Montenegro - CGES
Palestine - PETL
Portugal - REN
TR
ME
ES
AL
PT
TR
GR
TN
MA
TN
Spain - REE
Slovenia - ELEKTRO-SLOVENIJA
MA
DZ
PS
IL JO
LY
EG
Tunisia - STEG
Turkey - TEIAS
9
The Cooperation Framework
EU
(CommissionParliament)
LAS
(Energy
Dept.)
PAM
(Energy
Panel)
MED-TSO
UfM
ENTSO-E
MEDREG
10
EC- Med-TSO – Medreg
A Euro Mediterranean Partnership
• Share a common vision and objectives for a Euro
Mediterranean Regional Electricity Market
• Role of Med TSO and Medreg, as EC long term institutional
partners for Euro Mediterranean Relationships in the
Energy sector
• The EC supports Med TSO in its mission aiming at the
integration of a regional electricity market in the long term
by coordinating the development plans and the operation of
the grids
Med TSO – Medreg
Cooperation Protocol
• Constitution of a Joint WGs: regular meetings (each semester) for
information exchange and agreement cooperation actions, also with
Institutional Stakeholders, like the EC DG Energy and the League of
Arab States – Energy Department
• First bilateral actions :
Investment Mapping Report, on the basis of results of the Master
Plan of the Mediterranean Interconnections (Med TSO, 2013)
Workshops on some practical selected topics, like the state of the art
and priorities in harmonization of rules of connection or mechanisms
for promoting network investments in international interconnections
• Other potential common coordinated actions:
 Exchange of good practices - “Regulatory Benchmarking”
 Specific “Joint Workshops” on ad-hoc basis
EC Med TSO Cooperation:
the Mediterranean Project
• Objective
Integration of Mediterranean Electricity Systems
• Common Vision
Infrastructures development as condition for the Regional
Development
• Integration Tool
Multilateral Cooperation, in the framework of a partnership
with the European Commission: a set of coordinated
activities, jointly elaborated and developed by the experts of
the Mediterranean TSOs
Strategy Plan 2015 - 2017
1. Rules – Common Set of Rules for a Mediterranean Power System and
Transmission Grid Code
Common rules for the operation and development of interconnections
2. Infrastructures – Planning and development of a Euro Mediterranean Reference
Electricity Grid
Coordinated development planning of interconnections, based on specific tools
(Energy Scenario, Market Study, CBA and CBCA Methodologies )
3. International Electricity Exchanges – Promoting the development of a
Mediterranean Electricity System
Methodologies, procedures and mechanisms for sharing resources through cross
border exchanges, based on inter-grid complementarities and efficient use of
generation infrastructures, allowed by the interconnection of the grids.
4. Knowledge Network – Creation of a knowledge network
Creation of a common background to support the Mediterranean Integration
5. Database – Database in the Mediterranean Electricity Sector
Sharing of information to promote the cooperation and development of the
Mediterranean Electricity Grid
Knowledge Network
Approach
• Cooperation Agreements with Engineering Departments
of Universities and Research Centers from the Med-TSO
countries for developing common initiatives for knowhow development and exchange, aimed to create an
Integrated Mediterranean Electricity System
• Cooperation with operators coming from the different
Mediterranean contexts, for students training (i.e. a Postgraduate one year international Master on Large Grid
Engineering, hereby creating a network of experts in new
electrical grid technologies).
• Main Area of interest : Large Grids Engineering and
System Integration
Technology vs Knowledge
The evolution of the energy scenario has a strong impact on prices (still
ongoing)
The new technologies have led to an impact on this framework.
• The energy scenario evolution impacts the development of the
electricity systems
• An incentive for the integration of the regional electricity systems
• New impulse for R&I in large grid engineering and system integration
technologies (i.e. Hybrid Grid AC/DC)
To lay the foundations of a new R&I production chain
Linking TSOs and University/Research Institutes
A vision of change for the Mediterranean
17