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South East London sub-region Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton

Opinion Research Services

Issues for Discussion…

• What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London?

• What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses?

• Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region?

• What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market?

• How might things change over the longer-term?

Presentation Overview

• Introduction • Current housing market • Population growth • Migration and economy • Recent market changes

Introducing ORS

• Generic social research organisation – Spin-out company from Swansea University – Established in 1988, not primarily commercial – 40 full-time staff – Specialise in quantitative and qualitative research methods • Research includes – Housing & planning – SHMAs, need/demand analysis – Health – promotion/primary/secondary care – Local government – Panels/BVPI/employees – Emergency services – police and fire

Housing Research Portfolio

• Greater London Authority – Regional SHMA 2008 • Quality Reviews for EERA and GOEM – Identifying good practice in Strategic HMA work • Further Strategic HMA work – Bedfordshire, LCB East, LCB West, Milton Keynes, Greater Norwich, Exeter/Torbay, West Cornwall, Birmingham, South East Wales, Neath Port Talbot • Over 60 further local housing studies • English Partnerships – Accredited consultants for SHMA work

The PPS3 Vision PLAN MONITOR MANAGE

SHMA SHLAA Housing Trajectory & Mix Annual Monitoring Report Housing & PDL Targets (Local & Regional)

What is an SHMA?

• The Vision – a key tool to inform policy and help shape strategic thinking in housing and planning • The Basics – a robust evidence base – promotes joint working – not a snap-shot survey but an ongoing process – provides estimate of the need for affordable housing and demand for market housing – helps understand requirements of niche groups •

‘an exercise of judgement, rather than a simple analysis of factual material’ (North West RSS EiP Panel Report 08 05 07)

Approach in South East London

• Household survey – personal interviews – addresses selected at random – detailed interviews – overall sample size = 7,250 households – Bexley 1,250 – Bromley 1,250 – Greenwich 1,500 – Lewisham 1,500 – Southwark 1,750 • Secondary data analysis • Stakeholder engagement – Developers – RSLs – Estate and Letting Agents – Private Landlords – Housing Front-line Staff – Planners – Supporting People Commissioners – Lenders – HEIs – Business Community – Neighbouring Authorities

Different Levels of SHMA Impact

• Regional – Developing regional housing policy evidence base – Informing Regional Housing Strategy reviews – Assisting with reviews of Regional Spatial Strategy • Sub-regional – Deepening understanding of housing markets at the strategic (usually sub-regional) level – Developing an evidence base for sub-regional housing strategy • Local – Developing an evidence base for Local Development Documents – Assisting with production of local Core Strategies

Current Housing Market

OVERVIEW OF THE AREA

Index of Multiple Deprivation

Source: CLG

Housing Tenure

Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Private Rented Stock: 2001

Source: SHMA 2008

Private Rented Stock: 2008

Source: SHMA 2008

South East London: Current demographics compared to all England

Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate

South East London: Projected population growth to 2001-26

Source: GLA 2007 Round Population Projections

Increase in Number of Dwellings 2001-2007

Source: Census 2001, VOA 2007

Housing Market Drivers

MIGRATION AND LOCAL ECONOMY

International Migration 2001-06

Source: ONS Migration Unit

UK Migration 2002-2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Number of SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Net SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Net Migration 2001-06 UK Bexley

In-migrants 51,800 Out-migrants 52,700

Net Change -900 International

In-migrants Out-migrants

Net Change TOTAL

3,800 3,300

+500 -400 Bromley Greenwich Lewisham Southwark

74,900 75,000

-100

70,800 81,000

-10,200

80,800 88,700 102,700 116,800

-21,900 -28,100

9,400 10,400

-1,000 -1,100

17,200 10,700

+6,500 -3,700

22,400

-9,400

43,100 9,900 16,200

+12,500 +26,900 -1,200

Source: ONS Migration Unit

Household Income: Existing vs. Migrant Households Household Income Mean (£ pa)

Bexley

All Households In-migrants Out-migrant

34,200 38,700 38,900 Bromley Greenwich 32,000 Lewisham 37,400 Southwark 29,900 47,200 41,100 36,100 42,400 42,100 38,000 Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Household Income

Source: SHMA 2008

Household Income: Households with Incomes less than £20,000 Household Income (£ pa)

Bexley Bromley

Mean Income

34,200 Greenwich 32,000 Lewisham 37,400 Southwark 29,900

Median Income % under £20K

25,800 22,200 19,200 16,800 40% 48% 52% 56% Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Employment Sector Trends

Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

Employment Sector Trends

Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

Housing Market Drivers