Transcript Slide 1

ENHANCING SAFETY PERFORMANCE
THROUGH RISK PERCEPTION
AND
RISK TOLERANCE
Joseph M. Deeb, Ph.D., CPE, M.Erg.S.
ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc
Singapore
June 23, 2006
Publication Number: 2006.1394
1
Objectives

Business Impact

Background

Introduction and Facts

Methodology

Factors Influencing Risk Perception

Applications of Risk Perception techniques
2
Risk Perception
Business Impact

Supports any business vision of “Zero Injury, Nobody Gets
Hurt”

Break through safety performance plateau:
 Augment safety programs with risk perception learnings
 Provide tools to better perceive and avoid risk
 Reduce/Eliminate incidents
3
Background
ACCIDENT RATE
SAFETY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
Human Factors is the focal point
FACILITIES
Safety Systems - OIMS
OIMS
HUMAN FACTORS
TIME
View Graph /M2- 5
6%
Unsafe Practices; Procedures
Not Followed
12%
68% of incidents are
due to lack of hazard
recognition and, risk
perception and
mitigation
48%
14%
Lack of Hazard
Recognition & Risk Mitigation
Equipment Failure
Lack of Leadership and
Communication
20%
Environmental Conditions
4
Introduction & Some Definitions

What is Perception?
 Process to add meaning to received information
 Depends on knowledge and experience

What is Risk Perception?
 Process of determining likelihood and severity of injury
 Determined by availability of risk in memory

Behavior is determined by perceived rather than actual risk

Risk Tolerance – Is the subjective level of acceptable risk

Hazard – Is a condition or set of circumstances that has the
potential of causing harm or contributing to injury, illness, or
property damage
5
Demonstration
6
Demonstration
7
Few Facts About Perception of Risk
•
Subjective assessment of risk is as important as quantification of
risk.
•
Hazards not perceived or recognized will not be acted on.
•
In general, people’s perception of risk is lower than actual risk.
•
Disagreement about risk should not be expected to evaporate
with the presence of evidence.
•
Strong initial views are resistant to change because they
influence the way that subsequent information is interpreted.
•
New evidence appears reliable if it is consistent with one’s initial
beliefs.
8
Methodology

Reviewed wide range of literature
 Technological Threats e.g. Nuclear power
 Health Threats e.g., AIDS
 Lifestyle Risks e.g., Smoking, alcohol consumption

Proposed a Cognitive Incident Stages Model (CISM)

Identified 8 main factors that can influence perception of risk

Integrated factors into selected safety programs

Incorporate the findings into sites’ own safety programs
 Enhance employee perception of risk
 Reduce/eliminate incidents
9
Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM)
Exposure to hazardous
situation
Sensory Register
(sense organs: eyes,
ears, etc...)
No
Information Processing Box
Yes
Recognition of
Hazard
Yes
Decision
Working
Memory
No
Action
Selection
No
Risk
Perception
Action
Choice
Yes
No
No
Action execution
(Decision to avoid)
Yes
No
Unsafe
behavior
No
Ability to
mitigate
Yes
Chance
Accident
 Allow individuals to:
 close the gap between actual
and perceived risk
Perception of
Hazard
Attention Resources
Long-term Memory
knowledge and experience
No
Goals of Risk Perception Process
 properly determine the
likelihood and severity of
injury to one’s self and
others (Consequence).
 Human information processing is
critical to help and motivate
employees to take actions and
make interventions that will
encourage safer behavior
(Consequence becomes
Antecedent).
Ability to
avoid
Yes
Safe
behavior
Yes
Chance
No Accident
10
Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM) & Culture
Source
Channel
Receiver
Noticeability
Attention
Memory
Comprehension
Attitudes
Beliefs
Motivation
Culture is a
cognitive framework
that influences
how we process
information
Culture is a
collection of values,
beliefs, traditions,
and behavior patterns
Behavior
Wogalter, DeJoy, & Laughery, 1999
11
Factors Influencing Risk Perception
Risk Acceptance
Influenced by:
Goggles
- Overestimate/Underestimate
- Familiarity
Bare Arms
Contacting Ladder
- Cost of Compliance
- Voluntary Exposure
- Social Influence
Metal Ladder
Wet Clothing
Contacting Ladder
Bare Wet Feet
Contacting Ladder
Risk
Perception
Factors
Electrical Cord
In Water
1. Underestimating/Overestimating
capabilities
2. Familiarity - Complacency
3. Severity of Consequences - Injury
4. Cost of Compliance - Time & Effort
5. Voluntary Exposure - Risk Taking
6. Controllable & Understood Hazards
7. Social Influence - Peer Pressure/Role
Models
8. Personal Experiences
12
Factors Influencing Risk Perception
Factors
Definitions
Underestimate/Overestim People tend to overestimate the value of their
ate Risk Magnitude
experience and capabilities and underestimate
associated risk.
Familiarity
Working in a familiar situation encourages people to take
more risk.
Severity of Consequence When fear of injury or penalty seems low, people are
more willing to take risks. People's acceptance of risk is
based on the seriousness of the potential outcome and
on how severely they might be injured.
Voluntary Exposure
People who voluntary take risks, such as speeding on a
highway or working without a hard hat, perceive their
action as less dangerous.
13
Factors Influencing Risk Perception Cont’
Factors
Definitions
Personal Experience
Personal stories - preferably told by the person involved
- of accidents and dangers create attention and
increases risk perception in an audience.
Understood Hazards
Hazards that can be clearly explained cause less alarm
than those that are not understood and are viewed as
uncontrollable.
Cost of Compliance
If the cost of noncompliance is very low, people are less
likely to perceive an action as a risk. As an example,
more people will risk getting a $20 speeding ticket than a
$200 ticket. Cost associated with compliance can be a
strong motivator to change risk perception.
Social Influence
Employees can become role models, benefiting
themselves and others, or can be negative influences.
14
Risk Perception and the ABC Model
Antecedents
Behavior
Consequences
(Any trigger that leads people to
act in a specific way)
(What we do, How we
act, Observable action)
(What Occurs as a result of the
action)
Not wearing eye
protection when
required
• Injury
• Availability
• Peer pressure
• Rushing
• Training/Demos
• Mild consequence
• Policies/Procedures
• Supervisor feedback
• Always did it like this
• Incentive/Disincentive
Cognitive Behavior
Change
• Penalty
• Peer approval
• Comfort
• Convenience
• Save time
• Feedback
Reality Behavior
Change
15
Altering Risk Perception
Underestimate/Overestimate

Awareness to employees about underestimation and overestimation of situation and, how they
lead to lower/higher risk perception.
 Training/communication/methodologies/tools about how best to avoid
underestimation/overestimation of situation.
Familiarity

Strong warnings and emphasis on clear, explicit hazards. Train employees on how familiarity
breeds lower risk perception.
Severity of Consequences

Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both
presentations and warning signs/situations.
Cost of Compliance


Minimize the cost of noncompliance by designing a safer system.
Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both
presentations and warning signs/situations.
Voluntary Exposure

Training employees to understand and appreciate the difference between power of choice (lower risk perception) and no
perception). Lower risk perception can create an environment of unawareness of actual dangers and deficiencies.
choice (higher risk
Controllable and Understood Hazards

Part of the training programs, we need to discuss the complexity of people and their integral contribution to most workplace hazards and injuries.
This will increase:
1) the perceived value of ongoing safety interventions and,
2) the beliefs that a safe place (on and off the job) requires total commitment and involvement of all employees.
Social Influence

As part of the safety presentations and awareness training, employees need to understand what social influence and transition figure mean, how
they work and, how they can be applied. The training should focus on the premise that: if employees see others complying with safety rules, they
are more likely to comply themselves. Similarly, seeing others not complying lessens the likelihood of complying.
Personal Experiences

Train and encourage employees to use the power of personal stories and individual accounts in addition to convincing statistics. For example,
focus of safety meetings/presentations should emphasize the human element of safety.
16
Summary of Specific Application of Guidance Document
• Safety communication
 Posters, papers, and presentations
 Considerations for sender, transmitter, & receiver
 Motivation
 Message
 Warnings
 Criteria for warning communication
 Design criteria (e.g., attention, hazard information,
consequence, comprehension, brevity, etc)
• Training
 Facts
 How to discuss risk
 Principles for successful training
 Content
 Training program template
17
Another Example
1st Worker
2nd Worker
Influenced by:
- Underestimate/
Overestimate
- Familiarity
- Cost of
Compliance
- Voluntary
Exposure
- Controllable &
Understood
Hazards
How did they get to here?
18
Another Example
19
Demonstration
Things are not always what they
seem
20
Demonstration
21