Transcript Slide 1

SIMPLE COMPLEXITY?
Systems thinking and collaborative
approaches in times of change
October 2014
T HE ONLY CONSTANT IS C HANGE
Faced with the choice between changing one's
mind and proving that there is no need to do so,
almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
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E XAMPLE : A USTRALIA
Example Question:
If your organisation improved outcomes
delivered by 30% this year . . . ?
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A USTRALIA : S OCIAL I MPACT S YSTEM
The turnover of the “Social Impact System”
is around $300 bn pa.
Governments
• 1 federal, 6 state, 2 (largish)
territories, 564 local governments
• Many departments across Health,
Welfare, Education, Justice . . .
• Multiple roles - sets policy, funds
programs, runs programs . . .
Not-for-Profit
• 700,000 NFPs
• 60,000 economically significant
Corporate
• Philanthropy, corporate social
responsibility, creating shared value
Evolving forms
• Social enterprises, B-corps . . .
12012-13
ABS Satellite Accounts
NFP
$107bn1
All Govt: $500bn+
$41bn1
Govt
(Social)
$200bn+
?
For-Profit
(Social): $?
For-Profit Total?
Top 500: $1,543 bn
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S YSTEM C OST G ROWTH
$bn
2006-07
2012-13
Change
% pa
NFP Turnover
76.0
107.5
41.4%
5.9%
Government
Funding for NFP
25.5
40.9
60.5%
8.2%
CPI: 2.7% pa
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H OW ARE WE D OING ?
System Effectiveness
Outcomes/$ Invested
1. Exponential growth
2. Slow and steady
5. Consensus?
3. Status quo
4. In reverse
1980
1990
2000
2010
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M EETING THE C HALLENGE
CSI Mission question:
“What are the keys to improving social impact in Australia?”
We have learned to create the small exceptions that can change
the lives of hundreds. But we have not learned how to make the
exceptions the rule to change the lives of millions.
Lisbeth Schorr, Social Analyst
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S OCIAL I MPACT
F RAMEWORK
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W HY AREN ’ T WE D OING T HIS A LREADY ?
Core: System misalignment.
Example: outcome measurement
• The business case for measurement at a system level is strong.
• The case for measurement at a program/ organisation level is weak.
• (Short-term) incentives for key players are poorly aligned.
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L ESSONS ABOUT C OMPLEX S YSTEMS
• A complex adaptive system is comprised of agents
(individuals, groups, organisations, communities)
– Each agents’ behaviour is dictated by their local
perception of the environment
– They optimize their own fitness, not that of the system
• Agents are connected by feedback loops; behaviour is
interdependent. Systems resist change.
• Agents adapt to improve their own payoffs; in so doing
they co-evolve, shifting the landscape
• The system is constantly evolving as agents come and
go; system complexity is added because there are
systems within systems
Individual incentives matter
(they are often misaligned
with the desired system
outcome)
In complex systems, siloed
responses generally fail
Change is constant, complex
and not predictable
Footnote: not every social
problem is complex!
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S OME K EYS TO A S YSTEMS A PPROACH
1. Develop an understanding of the system
2. In this context – what is your “theory of change”?
• Create a shared agenda with a system view
3. Develop positive feedback loops:
focus on the system (community, country) outcome first,
program attribution second
4. Seek to align individual incentives with desired system
outcomes . . .
“You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will
drive progress toward that goal . . . this may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is
not done and how hard it is to get right.”
- Bill Gates
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S OME K EYS TO C OLLABORATION
1. Trust.
2. Common agenda.
3. Shared measures.
4. Resource.
5. Communication . . . and trust.
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YOUR O RGANISATION ROLE ?
1. System envisioner/catalyst/advocate?
2. Specialist?
3. System Integrator/backbone?
4. Other?
. . . and building your capabilities, people and organisation relationships accordingly
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C ONCLUSION
The secret is to gang up on the problem,
rather than each other.
- Thomas Stallkamp
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