Transcript Slide 1

Economic Update: US and Washignton
Presented by
Greg Weeks, PH.D.
Washington State
Employment Security Department
Labor Market and Economic Analysis
2008 IPMA Conference
Lake Chelan, WA
October 14, 2008
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, U. S.
December 2000 = 100
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington
December 2000 = 100
110. 0
110. 0
107. 5
107. 5
105. 0
105. 0
102. 5
102. 5
100. 0
100. 0
97. 5
97. 5
95. 0
95. 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington
Difference - Period to Period
Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
05
06
07
08
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Employment/Population Ratio: Seattle
Employment/Population Ratio: Washington less Seattle
Employment/Population Ratio: Washington
Employment/Population Ratio: U. S.
72. 5
72. 5
70. 0
70. 0
67. 5
67. 5
65. 0
65. 0
62. 5
62. 5
60. 0
60. 0
57. 5
57. 5
95
00
05
Initial Claim s
ETA 539 (Regular Benef its)
Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008
17,000
Number of Claims
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
We e k Num be r (DOL)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: LMEA,
2008
ESD
Continue d We e k s Claim e d
ETA 539 (Regular Benef its)
Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008
135,000
125,000
115,000
Number of Weeks Claimed
105,000
95,000
85,000
75,000
65,000
55,000
45,000
35,000
1
4
2004
7
10
13
2005
16
19
22
2006
25
28 31
342007
37
40
43 2008
46
49
Source:
LMEA,
We e k Num be r (DOL)
ESD
52
Unemployment Insurance: Exhaustion Rate: Washington
%
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims Applications: Washington
NSA, Number
40
80000
70000
36
60000
32
50000
28
40000
24
30000
20
20000
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Unemployment Rate, United States
Seasonally Adjusted, %
Unemployment Rate, Washington
Seasonally Adjusted, %
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
December 2000 = 100
Seattle-Everett-Bellevue
Tacoma
Spokane
Balance of State
116
116
112
112
108
108
104
104
100
100
96
96
92
92
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
All Employees: Manufacturing, U. S.
Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
All Employees: Manufacturing, Washington
Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
16000
310
15500
300
15000
290
14500
280
14000
270
13500
13000
260
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
All Employees: Mfg Nondurable Goods, Washington
Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
All Employees: Mfg Durable Goods, Washington
Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
88
220
86
210
84
200
82
190
80
78
180
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
Manufacturers' New Orders: Aircraft & Parts (U. S. )
Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $
70000
70000
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
02
03
04
05
06
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
07
08
Manufacturers' New Orders: Information Technology (U. S. )
Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $
90000
90000
85000
85000
80000
80000
75000
75000
70000
70000
65000
65000
60000
60000
02
03
04
05
06
Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics
07
08
Construction Payrolls Share of Washington Payrolls
Seasonally Adjusted
Construction Payrolls Share of Total U. S. Payrolls
Seasonally Adjusted
7. 50
7. 50
6. 75
6. 75
6. 00
6. 00
5. 25
5. 25
4. 50
4. 50
3. 75
3. 75
95
Source: Haver Analytics
00
05
Private Construction: Nonresidential (U. S. )
% Chg - Year/Year
seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $
Private Construction: Residential (U. S. )
% Chg - Year/Year
40
seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics, Census Bureau
Housing Starts: U. S. , Thousands of Units
6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Housing Starts: Washington, Thousands of Units
6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
2250
2000
55
50
1750
45
1500
40
1250
1000
750
35
30
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Census Bureau, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ /Haver Analytic
Real Disposable Personal Income
% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
Per Capita Personal Income, United States
Chained 2000 $
Per Capita Personal Income, Washington
Chained 2000 $
36000
36000
34000
34000
32000
32000
30000
30000
28000
28000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
08
Real Gross Domestic Product
% Change - Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
08
Consumer Confidence: Pacific
Seasonally Adjusted, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence
Seasonally Adjusted, 1985=100
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: The Conference Board /Haver Analytics
08
Avg Hourly Earnings: Total Private
% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, $/hour
CPI-U: All Items
% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
House Price Index, United States
% Change - Year to Year
1980 Q1=100
Housing Starts, United States
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Thousands of Units
12. 5
2400
10. 0
2000
7. 5
1600
5. 0
2. 5
1200
0. 0
-2. 5
02
03
04
05
Sources: OFHEO, CENSUS /Haver
06
07
08
800
OFHEO House Price Index, Washington
% Change - Year to Year
NSA, 1980 Q1=100
OFHEO House Price Index, United States
% Change - Year to Year
NSA, 1980 Q1=100
30. 0
30. 0
22. 5
22. 5
15. 0
15. 0
7. 5
7. 5
0. 0
0. 0
-7. 5
-7. 5
80
85
90
95
00
05
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight /Haver Analytic
Yield Curve: 10-Year versus Fed Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity
Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
08
3-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid
% p. a.
Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate
%
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
07
08
4-Week Treasury Bills, Secondary Market
% p. a.
1-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid
% p. a.
5. 25
7
4. 50
6
3. 75
5
3. 00
4
2. 25
3
1. 50
2
0. 75
1
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
07
08
CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy
% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
CPI-U: All Items
% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate [Prior'82=Posted Price]
$/Barrel
U. S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular Grade
Avg, Cents/Gallon
150
125
450
375
100
300
75
225
50
25
0
150
75
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Department of Energy /Haver Analytics
U. S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular Grade
1995=100
Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
1995=100
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Sources: Department of Energy, Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Washington
Not Seasonally Adjusted, %
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: U. S.
Not Seasonally Adjusted, %
1. 2
1. 2
1. 0
1. 0
0. 8
0. 8
0. 6
0. 6
0. 4
0. 4
0. 2
0. 2
0. 0
95
00
05
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics
0. 0
Conventional Subprime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United States
SA, %
Conventional Prime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United States
SA, %
8
2. 0
1. 6
6
1. 2
4
0. 8
2
0. 4
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics
0. 0
08
Composite Housing Affordability Index
% Change - Year to Year
Median Inc=Qualifying Inc=100
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States
% Change - Year to Year
$
22. 5
20
15
15. 0
10
7. 5
5
0. 0
0
-7. 5
-5
-15. 0
-10
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics
08
Thank You for your time and attention!
Please call or email with any questions:
Greg Weeks
[email protected]
(360) 438-48804