Transcript QLD State Budget 2009/10

WS (Bill) Cummings
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS
OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
Ref: J2446 | April 2011
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS
Cummings Economics / March 2011
2
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
3
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
DWELLING APPROVALS
Far North Queensland Statistical Division
Number
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS
Far North Queensland Statistical Division
$M
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
4
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS SSD-URP
Growth 1996-2001
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
Total
Cummings Economics / March 2011
-15.38%
-23.96%
5.16%
53.28%
-14.66%
-6.14%
15.23%
1.83%
3.34%
-12.11%
-13.77%
-6.58%
0.56%
4.06%
9.21%
19.52%
15.14%
-6.14%
-12.81%
1.21%
Growth 2001-2006
-27.04%
74.35%
0.02%
21.68%
71.93% Construction affected
-8.48%
10.94%
-2.44%
15.32%
-3.94%
12.50% Construction affected
26.06% Construction affected
21.68%
3.65%
38.48%
11.93%
26.57%
2.40%
12.45%
16.35%
5
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
6
Workforce Far North Queensland Statistical Division (1)
2008
2009
2010
Average
Employed
(‘000)
Average
Unemployed
(‘000)
Total
Workforce
(‘000)
Average
Unemployment Rate
%
1st half
130.8
8.0
138.8
5.8%
2nd half
137.4
8.0
145.4
5.5%
1st half
129.1
14.6
143.7
10.2%
2nd half
132.1
16.3
148.4
11.0%
1st half
133.5
16.6
150.1
11.0%
2nd half
137.3
13.1
150.4
8.7%
7.3
5.1
11.6
+5.5%
+63.8%
+8.4%
Growth 2nd half 2010 on 1st half 2008
No.
Percent
(1)
Note: Cairns city and its servicing region.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
7
ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’
EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1)
Estimated 2008/09 Income
Tourism
$2.5 bn
Primary industries
$1.7 bn
Mining
Other (manufacturing, service
industries, regional trade, etc)
Total
$0.7 bn
(1)
$1.0 bn
$5.9 bn
Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
8
YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
%
PILOTS
DISPUTE
ASIAN
CRISIS
ANSETT
COLLAPSE
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
9
GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2008/09)
$M
1400
Gross Value Agricultural Production
(Long Term Growth 1982/83 to 2008/09)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Cummings Economics / March 2011
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
$M
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
11
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
Total
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Growth 1996-2001
Growth 2001-2006
-15.38%
-23.96%
5.16%
53.28%
-14.66%
-6.14%
15.23%
1.83%
3.34%
-12.11%
-13.77%
-6.58%
0.56%
4.06%
9.21%
19.52%
15.14%
-6.14%
-12.81%
-27.04%
74.35%
0.02%
21.68%
71.93%
-8.48%
10.94%
-2.44%
15.32%
-3.94%
12.50%
26.06%
21.68%
3.65%
38.48%
11.93%
26.57%
2.40%
12.45%
1.21%
16.35%
A AGRICULTURE
M MINING
T TOURISM RELATED
G
G GOVERNMENT SERVICES
G
T TOURISM RELATED
12
Cummings Economics / March 2011
13
Cummings Economics / March 2011
14
LATE 2008 & 2009
Cummings Economics / March 2011
15
Monthly Passenger Movements Cairns Airport
Percent Increase on Same Month Previous Year
2010
International
Terminal
(-4.1%)
+27.1%*
+5.2%
+34.9%
+22.2%
+31.9%
+20.1%
+31.0%
+30.7%
+29.7%
+39.1%
+27.2%
Domestic
Terminal
(-11.8%)
+6.3%
(-2.3%)
(-2.9%)
(-0.7%)
+8.7%
+4.2%
+4.1%
+8.0%
+6.9%
+5.7%
+15.0%
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Jan
+30.9%
+0.8%
* Note: Affected by timing and Chinese New Year.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Total
(-10.7%)
+9.5%
(-1.1%)
+1.5%
+2.6%
+12.1%
+6.6%
+8.2%
+11.3%
+10.1%
+10.3%
+17.0%
+14.0%
16
Cummings Economics / March 2011
17
FUTURE
Cummings Economics / March 2011
18
FUTURE
Cummings Economics / March 2011
19
RENTAL VACANCY RATES
Cummings Economics / March 2011
20
Cummings Economics / March 2011
21
TURNAROUND FORCES
NATIONAL SETTINGS
• AUD / INTEREST RATES
LOCAL CONDITIONS
• POPULATION GROWTH AT STANDSTILL
• NOT SPENDING / SAVING
TOURISM
• DIRECT CHINESE FLIGHTS
• CONFERENCE, SPORT, EDUCATION
PNG
• IMPROVED FLYIN SERVICES
• TRANSPORT LINKS
MINING
FLY IN CENTRAL QLD / OTHER
HINTERLAND MINING
• COPPERSTRIKE, KAGARA, CONSOLIDATED TIN
• WEPIA EXPANSION
GOVERNMENT
• CATCHUP UNIVERSITY
• HOSPITAL (TERTIARY)
• CULTRAL
MARITIME
• NAVY, CARGO
• SUPERYACHT
AGRICULTURE
• MAREEBA SUGAR EXPANSION
• BIOFUELS
Cummings Economics / March 2011
22
Cummings Economics
38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870
Ph: 40312888 | Email: [email protected] | Fax: 40311108
Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009
www.cummings.net.au
The Cairns Economy
23