Transcript QLD State Budget 2009/10

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS
OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
WS (Bill) Cummings
Presentation to
MARINE QUEENSLAND
Ref: J2413 | March 2011
0%
Year
1976/77
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS
6%
5%
ACTUAL
Cummings Economics / March 2011
*EXPECTED
4%
3%
2%
1%
* Note: Expected order of magnitude growth rate 2009/10 & 2010/11.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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Cummings Economics / March 2011
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
3
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
DWELLING APPROVALS
Far North Queensland Statistical Division
Number
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS
Far North Queensland Statistical Division
$M
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Growth 1996-2001
Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
-9.20%
-31.59%
1.95%
46.67%
-16.63%
-6.90%
14.79%
-0.76%
4.26%
-10.81%
-12.62%
-8.33%
-0.69%
3.53%
10.11%
17.88%
13.15%
-4.62%
-15.20%
Inadequately described/Not stated
-34.83%
-3.11%
0.38%
16.75%
Total
Cummings Economics / March 2011
-31.08%
8.62%
3.19%
78.33%
46.04% Construction Affected
-13.56%
27.28%
-1.98%
18.11%
-15.15%
1.96% Construction Affected
16.50% Construction Affected
19.78%
8.88%
51.38%
32.54%
45.40%
-4.20%
-4.48%
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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Workforce Far North Queensland Statistical Division (1)
2008
2009
2010
Average
Employed
(‘000)
Average
Unemployed
(‘000)
Total
Workforce
(‘000)
Average
Unemployment Rate
%
1st half
130.8
8.0
138.8
5.8%
2nd half
137.4
8.0
145.4
5.5%
1st half
129.1
14.6
143.7
10.2%
2nd half
132.1
16.3
148.4
11.0%
1st half
133.5
16.6
150.1
11.0%
2nd half
137.3
13.1
150.4
8.7%
7.3
5.1
11.6
+5.5%
+63.8%
+8.4%
Growth 2nd half 2010 on 1st half 2008
No.
Percent
(1)
Note: Cairns city and its servicing region.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’
EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1)
Estimated 2008/09 Income
Tourism
$2.5 bn
Primary industries
$1.7 bn
Mining
Other (manufacturing, service
industries, regional trade, etc)
Total
$0.7 bn
(1)
$1.0 bn
$5.9 bn
Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
%
PILOTS
DISPUTE
ASIAN
CRISIS
ANSETT
COLLAPSE
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2008/09)
$M
1400
Gross Value Agricultural Production
(Long Term Growth 1982/83 to 2008/09)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Cummings Economics / March 2011
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
$M
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Growth 1996-2001
Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estate services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Administrative & support services
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation services
Other services
-9.20%
-31.59%
1.95%
46.67%
-16.63%
-6.90%
14.79%
-0.76%
4.26%
-10.81%
-12.62%
-8.33%
-0.69%
3.53%
10.11%
17.88%
13.15%
-4.62%
-15.20%
-31.08%
8.62%
3.19%
78.33%
46.04%
-13.56%
27.28%
-1.98%
18.11%
-15.15%
1.96%
16.50%
19.78%
8.88%
51.38%
32.54%
45.40%
-4.20%
-4.48%
Inadequately described/Not stated
-34.83%
-3.11%
0.38%
16.75%
Total
Cummings Economics / March 2011
A AGRICULTURE
M MINING
T TOURISM RELATED
G
G GOVERNMENT SERVICES
G
T TOURISM RELATED
T TOURISM RELATED
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Cummings Economics / March 2011
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Cummings Economics / March 2011
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LATE 2008 & 2009
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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Monthly Passenger Movements Cairns Airport
Percent Increase on Same Month Previous Year
2010
International
Terminal
(-4.1%)
+27.1%*
+5.2%
+34.9%
+22.2%
+31.9%
+20.1%
+31.0%
+30.7%
+29.7%
+39.1%
+27.2%
Domestic
Terminal
(-11.8%)
+6.3%
(-2.3%)
(-2.9%)
(-0.7%)
+8.7%
+4.2%
+4.1%
+8.0%
+6.9%
+5.7%
+15.0%
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Jan
+30.9%
+0.8%
* Note: Affected by timing and Chinese New Year.
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Total
(-10.7%)
+9.5%
(-1.1%)
+1.5%
+2.6%
+12.1%
+6.6%
+8.2%
+11.3%
+10.1%
+10.3%
+17.0%
+14.0%
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Cummings Economics / March 2011
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FUTURE
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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FUTURE
Cummings Economics / March 2011
19
RENTAL VACANCY RATES
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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Cummings Economics / March 2011
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MARINE SECTOR
RESIDENTIAL
LEISURE
• POPULATION GROWTH AT STANDSTILL
• NOT SPENDING / SAVING
TOURISM
• RECOVERING BUT NOT BACK TO WHERE BEFORE
• HIGH DOLLAR
MARITIME SERVICING NO EXPANSION IN TOURISM FLEET IN SIGHT
AND SHIP BUILDING
TRADING - YES • MINING
• PENINSULAR
• PNG
NAVY
• PRESSURE BUT DOWN THE TRACK
SLIPWAYS
• HIGH DOLLAR
• COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
SUPERYACHT
• APPLAUD
• PAY OFF DOWN THE TRACK
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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MARINE SECTOR
Cummings Economics / March 2011
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Cummings Economics
38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870
Ph: 40312888 | Email: [email protected] | Fax: 40311108
Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009
www.cummings.net.au
The Cairns Economy
Presentation to the Marine Queensland
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