Transcript Towards Healthy Stocks and Healthy Profits in European

Towards Healthy Stocks and Healthy
Profits in European Fisheries
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR
[email protected]
Presentation at Hearing
„How much fish can be safely caught?“
Brussels, 3rd May 2011
1
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
•
Some terms
Legal background
Status of European and global Fish Stocks
Towards healthy stocks
Towards healthy profits
Conclusions
2
Some terms
• Biomass (B) is the weight of the fishes in the sea
• Fishing mortality (F) is an indicator of the
proportion of fish killed by fishing
• MSY is the maximum sustainable yield
• Bmsy is the biomass that can produce MSY
• Fmsy is the fishing mortality resulting in MSY and
Bmsy
• Blim is the biomass below which recruitment is
reduced and collapse possible
• Bpa is a biomass slightly above Blim but far below
Bmsy
(B ~ B -trigger)
pa
msy
Biomass Reference Points
Cod, Eastern Baltic
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
Yield Reference Points
Cod, Eastern Baltic
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
Legal Background
• The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982),
Article 61(3), requires that coastal State fisheries
management measures in the EEZ must aim at restoring
and maintaining fish stock biomass that can produce
maximum sustainable yields.
• The United Nations Fish Stock Agreement (UNFSA 1995),
Annex II, specifies that after the rebuilding phase, Fmsy is to
be used as a limit reference point.
• The precautionary principle, as contained in the Treaty on
the Functioning of the European Union, Article 191(2) and
in UNFSA Article 6, demands that „States shall be more
cautious when information is uncertain, unreliable or
inadequate. The absence of adequate scientific information
shall not be used as a reason for postponing or failing to
take conservation and management measures.“
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Text verified by Alexander Proelß, Prof. international Law, Triest
Status of European Fisheries
7
Landings from ICES 2010, MSY from Froese and Proelß 2010
Biomass of European Fish Stocks
Precautionary
1
0.8
Mean stock size
Target
Bmsy
Overfished
0.6
0.4
Trend
0.2
0
1970
Unsafe
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Average size of European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the
stocks were to reach the Johannesburg target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.
Froese and Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
Fishing Mortality of European Fish Stocks
4.5
UNCLOS
CFP
FAO/UNFSA
JPOI
Damanaki
Fishing pressure (F /Fmsy )
4
3.5
3
Threatening the stock
Trend
2.5
2
1.5
Overfishing
1
Precautionary
Target
0.5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Average fishing pressure on European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks
were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the trend since 2000, that target
will be missed by more than 30 years.
Froese and Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
Status of Global Fisheries
Increase
in Fishers
45
Mean landings per stock
40
3000
35
2500
30
Number of stocks
25
2000
20
1500
15
1000
Number of FAO stocks
Landings per FAO Stock (thousand t)
3500
10
Depleted stocks
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
500
2000
0
2010
Year
10
Pauly and Froese, in prep.
Why Should Europe Care
about Global Fisheries?
• 42% of the global trade in fish and fish
products is imported by the Europe
• A CFP reform that correctly implements
UNCLOS and UNFSA, such as done by USA, NZ
and AUS, will force others to follow
• A failed CFP reform will encourage continued
overfishing, in Europe and globally
• US$ 1.2 billion European fish exports into the
USA will be endangered
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Towards Healthy Fish Stocks
12
FISH and FISHERIES 2010
Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries
Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas,
Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann
Nine simple rules for European fisheries management resulting in
1) Economic optimization of the fishery
2) Adherence to UNCLOS and UNFSA
3) True implementation of the precautionary principle
4) Building on international experience
5) Progressing towards ecosystem based management
6) Compatible with the biology of European fish stocks
• Under these rules, stocks can be four times larger and
catches 63% higher, on average, compared to current levels.
HCR 1: Reference and Trigger Biomass
The reference biomass Bmsy for the subsequent
rules and reference points is the biomass that
can produce the maximum sustainable yield.
This biomass also acts as a trigger when stocks
fall below this level.
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
HCR 2: Target Biomass
The target biomass, to be achieved on average
over approximately 5 years, is 1.3 Bmsy.
The target biomass can be increased as
required by economic, ecosystem or other
considerations.
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
HCR 3: Limit Biomass
The limit biomass Blim, which is to be avoided
with a high probability, is 0.5 Bmsy
A higher biomass limit may be set for species
with low resilience to exploitation.
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
HCR 5: TAC Reductions
If the biomass falls below Bmsy, then the TAC is
linearly reduced, as a function of biomass, to
reach zero catch at Blim.
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
HCR 9: Size structure
The mean size and age in the catch will be
adjusted to minimize changes in age structure
caused by fishing and to reduce the effects of
fisheries-induced unnatural selection.
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
Proposed Harvest Control Rules
0.5 B msy
B msy
1.3 B msy
MSY
1
0.91 MSY
Depleted
Zone
Y /MSY
0.8
Overfishing
Zone
Buffer
Zone
Target
Zone
0.75 MSY
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
B /B msy
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
Status of European Stocks
B MSY
Move stocks here.
Landings may then
be 63% higher from
4 times larger stocks
1.3 B MSY
1.6
1.4
Landings / MSY
1.2
MSY
1
0.9 MSY
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Biomass / B MSY
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
Status of European Stocks
B MSY
ICES Proposal
1.3 B MSY
1.6
1.4
Landings / MSY
1.2
MSY
1
0.9 MSY
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Biomass / B MSY
Froese et al. 2010 Fish and Fisheries
Towards Healthy Profits
22
Growth Overfishing is Stupid
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Killing Juveniles is Stupid
24
Letting Fish Grow is Smart
25
MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, Submitted
Making a Miracle Come True:
Three Options for Rebuilding the Cod Stock in the Eastern Baltic Sea
Rainer Froese & Martin Quaas
• We compared a request by fishers with current management
and with the rules proposed by Froese et al. 2010
• The rules would rebuild and maintain the stock above Bmsy
and provide the highest profits over the next 10 years
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Cod, Eastern Baltic
1000
BMSY
900
SSB and Landings (1000 t)
800
700
600
500
400
MSY
300
200
100
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010
Expected Profits under Three Scenarios
Profits can increase 5-fold with
proper management
Increase is fastest under
proposed harvest control rules
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Froese and Quaas, submitted
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Internal rate of return (% per year)
Investing in the Resource is Smart
350
300
250
200
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Economic return of setting the 2009 TAC to zero and resume fishing at Fmey in 2010.
Quaas et al in prep.
Conclusions
• Getting the CFP reform right is of European
and of global importance
• European fish stocks are underperforming
assets
• Investing in larger stock sizes leads to
improved ecosystems status, healthy stocks,
healthy fisheries and healthy profits
30
Thank You
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR
[email protected]
31