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SPA National Expert Think Tank (NETT)
STEEPLED analysis on
Developments within UK HE admissions arising from a
‘more dynamic’ approach to student entry in England
NETT STEEPLED analysis
A STEEPLED analysis is one way of collating current information on
a new development across different influencers and to forecast how
those influences may develop over time.
The topic of this analysis is
Developments within UK HE admissions arising from a
‘more dynamic’ approach to student entry in England.
It should be used as a precursor to further inform and develop an
institutional review of the impact on and risks to policy and practice.
While there is a great deal of knowledge within universities and
colleges on student number control (SNC) changes, there will be
groups of staff who need differing levels of understanding based on
their type of engagement in the institution’s admissions activity. This
analysis will help promote further discussion as part of a wider NETT
toolkit.
More about
SNC
More about our
methodology
More about the
wider toolkit
START
More about SNC
The BIS white paper 'Students at the heart of the system' set out the government's
vision for a more diverse, dynamic higher education system that would support
student choice and encourage greater competition between providers of higher
education, while ensuring that the demands on the student support budget remained
sustainable. A key component required exempting certain students achieving high
grades from HEFCE student number controls.
More information is available from:
BIS
white
paper
SPA
guidance
HEFCE
policy
guide
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UCAS
applicant
advice
More about our methodology
This STEEPLED analysis was produced as an output of the SPA National Expert
Think Tank (NETT) Residential, held at Aston University 11 – 13 June 2013. The
NETT comprised members from a range of admissions and related backgrounds from
HEIs across England, with the aim of producing a toolkit of resources to inform and
influence the debate around the impact of SNC reforms in England, particularly in
ensuring that SPA's principle aim of ensuring fair admissions is considered within
this.
More on the
NETT
The STEEPLED analysis was produced from a range of desk-based and primary
research by members of the NETT. We have included links to a wide range of
sources, wherever possible, but the nature of such analysis is that it is occasionally
based on anecdote or personal knowledge (or even opinion) and cannot in every
instance be referenced back to 'hard data'. If there are suggestions for amendments
or additions we will be happy to receive them.
back to Even more on
START methodology
More about our methodology
Further, since the analysis is intended as a tool for others to develop to suit their own
institution's needs, we are happy for others to adapt our analysis to suit their own
circumstances. The diversity of our sector is such that many of the issues presented
here will affect those institutions in different ways, and occasionally perhaps in an
opposite way to that which we have presented.
Our analysis is split in two – representing current and forecast issues. We have
deliberately restricted our forecasts to a medium-term planning horizon, that is up to
around 2017. Given the velocity of change in HE at present, that planning horizon is
already difficult to predict, but to go further would seem to be more 'crystal ball' than
'scenario forecasting'. By 2017, under a new parliament, government HE policy will
likely have been redefined (in one direction or another); the effect of reforms to A
Levels and other qualifications on HE will be much clearer; and the fee regime may
start to change significantly.
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START
More about the wider toolkit
Surveys into the knowledge and awareness of SNC among university staff (and
others involved in student recruitment) were conducted in Spring 2013. These
revealed that there is limited information about SNC available, and, particularly
in the case of university staff, the available information is not always well
targeted.
teachers
summary survey findings:
HE Liaison staff HE Planning staff
case study institution staff
In the light of this research, the SPA National Expert Think Tank has
created a set of 'toolkits' for university staff aimed at identifying the
level of SNC expertise required in a given role, and then providing
suitable targeted information for users at the rudimentary, moderate
and comprehensive levels
back to
START
NETT
toolkit
socio-cultural
ethical
legal
technological
economic
Developments within UK
HE admissions arising
from a ‘more dynamic’
approach to student
entry in England
political
educational
demographic
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c1
Current 1
• Lot of work already done by HE sector and other networks (e.g.
IAG) to seek to explain the socio-cultural impact of the new
regime – contrasting with little from government itself. Impact of
that work is, as yet, unclear.
 UUK The funding environment for universities
 UCAS End of Cycle report 2012
 HEFCE briefing on the impact of 2012 reforms
 SPA SNC in admissions: Reviewing 2012; Planning 2013
back to
STEEPLED
more current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c2
Current 2
• Training / support provided within institutions for staff in
admissions, schools / college liaison, planning, functions etc. (as
noted within the various surveys) but a divergence of responses
as to whether this has been sufficient.
 NETT survey of HE Planning staff – 74% believed Planning
staff in their institution had received enough appropriate
training
 NETT survey of HE Liaison staff – 72% believed HE Liaison
staff in their institution had not received enough appropriate
training
back to
STEEPLED
more current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c3
Current 3
• Indications from surveys suggest staff across a range of different
roles (e.g. schools & colleges’ liaison, planning, admissions) are
looking at the socio-cultural impacts of the SNC policy.
 NETT survey of HE Planning staff – 74% thought Planning
staff had a role in considering any ethical, equality impact or
widening participation considerations of SNC
 NETT survey of HE Liaison staff – 66% thought HE Liaison
staff had a role in considering any ethical, equality impact or
widening participation considerations of SNC
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STEEPLED
more current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c4
Current 4
• Complexity of SNC policy is increasing the difficulty (and arguably
reducing effectiveness) of oversight (including by governing
bodies) within institutions, with the risk that practice not
considering socio-cultural impact is allowed to continue
unimpeded.
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STEEPLED
more current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c5
Current 5
• Policy on SNC / SNC exemption is becoming increasingly
complicated for IAG providers, applicant body and influencers,
therefore increasing risk of misunderstanding and the potential for
difference in quality of advice given by different parts of the
schools and colleges sector.
 Careers England survey on the impact of the Education Act
2011
 NETT survey of teachers – only just over half of teachers
(55%) felt they were confident about their understanding of the
SNC changes and the impact on their students
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STEEPLED
more current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio c6
Current 6
• 3% flexibility on intake (and the limited risks posed by exceeding
103%) allows providers greater leeway to make the ‘right’
decisions in 2013.
• Impacts to institutions outside of England but within the UK
 NETT survey of HE Planning staff - 86% of UK respondents
outside England felt SNC changes in England had affected
their planning arrangements: “... there is certainly a 'ripple
effect' and any impact on our direct competitors is certainly
then felt by ourselves. The focus on qualifications data is
almost certainly leading to divergence between England and
the rest of the UK ...”
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STEEPLED
on to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio f1
Forecast 1
• Impact of under-recruitment in 2013 may be mitigated by an
opportunity to recover position partially in 2014.
• As awareness grows, but old and new terminology persists, there
will be an increasing need to ensure everything is consistently
labelled and a common choice of words (and common
understanding of their meaning) is adopted by all (e.g. not AAB+
or ABB+ but SNC exempt).
• The impact will be different on different groups, potentially
exacerbating long-term educational disadvantage (certain groups
are less likely to achieve exemption grades, in particular: disabled
students; black students; students from lower socio-economic
groups; males).  HEFCE consultation 2011 – annex D
More forecast
back to
developments
STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
socio-cultural
Socio f2
Forecast 2
• Improved training amongst schools/colleges liaison staff and
better communication approaches from HE providers will improve
understanding within schools/colleges and support applicants
better through more reliable IAG.
 NETT survey of teachers – of the 45% of teachers who felt
they were not confident or not sure about their understanding
of the SNC changes and the impact on their students, 77%
said clearer guidance from universities would be most effective
in helping them understand better.
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STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
technological
Techno c1
Current 1
• (In)ability of systems (both corporate [UCAS] and institutional) to
differentiate between applicant status (SNC, SNC exempt etc.)
and which courses are available to which groups.
• Delivery of core services (e.g. UCAS) is threatened by rapid
change in policy framework, not matched by ability to adapt
systems.
• Difficulty in replicating HEFCE and HESA population data within
individual institutions can challenge planning scenarios UCAS not
keen to support an algorithm because of the risk of litigation.
SITS have tried but not highly rated. Inefficient for institutions to
provide their own. Need to be applicable to previous years.
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
technological
Techno c2
Current 2
• Gaps in data (e.g. SNC status flags) and the need for a single
algorithm to support this in a timely manner.
 NETT survey of HE Planning staff – several comments cited
improvements in the quality of qualifications data and
identification of ABB+ achievers would enhance the
effectiveness of institutional planning: “UCAS should develop
an algorithm to define SNC status for all UCAS institutions and
include within the data for each applicant. This should be
updated whenever new qualification information arrives (eg
after ABL) and should indicate the source of the data (so we
know whether or not it is verified).”
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
technological
Techno c3
Current 3
• Capacity to identify, monitor and track the variation within different
institutions as to the number and proportion predicted (who then
achieve) ABB+ and the number not predicted (but who do
achieve) ABB+. Applies to both the applicant and enrolled
populations.
• Noticing increased knowledge base and data expertise in
admissions staff to work with an increasingly technical set of
regulations.
• Recognised growth in business intelligence (e.g. dashboards) as
a result of increased complexities.
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
technological
Techno f1
Forecast
• Capturing and identifying SNC status within existing software
systems is feasible but needs to be kept under review as the
regulations change (see also algorithm point).
• Further changes to qualification exemptions (from 2014 entry),
and combinations thereof, will increase difficulty in assessment at
offer/confirmation stages (see also algorithm point).
• Impact of growth of MOOCs as technological capabilities provide
greater stability in delivering HE in different ways; would become
increasingly viable and desirable as competition in a restricted
traditional full-time undergraduate market tightens.
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STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ c1
Current 1
• Risk of fines for over-recruitment and claw-back for underrecruitment (because of difficulties of monitoring against multiple
targets, let alone the difficulties of delivery to target).
• Uncertainty of income streams.
 HEFCE report on financial health of the higher education
sector
 UUK assessment of the funding environment for universities
• Short timescales (and short period to influence) for delivery to
target given that grant letter received after 15 January deadline for
applications.
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ c2
Current 2
• EU universities teaching in English and resultant increased
competition.
 GES Database of Programmes taught in English
 Telegraph article - Where to study in Europe... in English
• Use of scholarships and bursaries to target SNC exempt
population.
 Times article - Universities vie for brightest students 11.06.13
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ c3
Current 3
• General poor economic conditions, with limited growth and high
market sensitivity, adding pressure on taught programmes.
• Institutions who have invested heavily, for example in residences,
over the past few years remain with heavy debt and borrowing
commitments which must be matched by income streams to
service, or alternative uses for same.
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ f1
Forecast 1
• Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge currently
understated according to many estimates – this may lead to
further policy changes impacting on providers.
 HEPI report - The cost of the Government’s reforms of the
financing of higher education
• As individual institution fees are increased, margin places (gained
as a result of lower than average fees) may be reclaimed by HEFCE.
• UG fees may impact on PGT recruitment from 2015 and a
potential for vicious circle increasing pressure to grow UG, PT and
OS intakes thereafter to compensate for decline in PGT.
Including MOOC and OS collaborations.
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ f2
Forecast 2
• Growth in private providers may be more limited at present than in
the future. Details as yet unclear.
• Risk of lenient approach in 2013 may not be repeated in future
years if overall budget demand on HEFCE is higher than
expected, if CSR fundamentally changes the position, or if the
economic climate increases pressure for austerity.
• HEIs may want to recruit more overseas students to compensate
for pressure on other income streams, which is challenged by
current government policy.
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ f3
Forecast 3
• IPPR suggestion to introduce OS growth targets seems to be
supported by Labour Party.
 IPPR report - A critical path: securing the future of higher education in England
• Drive to change tuition fees/funding in future if £9k fees become
increasingly unsustainable for some institutions. By 2017 (soonest
it will likely change) no change in fees could represent a 16% fall
in the unit of resource. However, there are calls within parts of the
sector for a managed reduction, not necessarily an increase.
 Professor David Eastwood at HEPI–HEA Conference 15.05.13


plus THE article on Russell Group Chair weighs in against tuition fee cap
Million+ report - Do the alternatives add up?
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
economic
Econ f4
Forecast 4
• Comprehensive Spending Review 2013 – HE may not be as
protected as last time, with the WP budget at greatest risk.
 UUK blog on Spending Review 25.04.13
 wonkhe blog on Austerity, the Spending Review and a crisis in
human capital 07.05.13
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STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
ethical
Eth c1
Current 1
• Applicants potentially have a greater chance of getting their firstchoice institution.
 UUK statement on lowering ABB Threshold
 counterpoint NUS statement - no evidence that students have
more choice
• Possible lack of transparency and perceived unfairness of current
policy approach.
 principles of fair admissions
• Number controls may be leading some institutions to ‘hold on’ to
applicants at Confirmation as a controlling factor.
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
ethical
Eth c2
Current 2
• EU students more ‘desirable’ in some institutions (to fill SNC) and
less in others, where SNC may be tighter Risk of indirect
discrimination if they are encouraged / discouraged towards
particular institutions or types of institutions (thus controlling their
choice in some respects).
• Use of scholarships and bursaries to target SNC exempt
population.
 Times article - Universities vie for brightest students 11.06.13
• Nothing within policy redresses existing inequalities across certain
groups (e.g. gender, socio economic group).
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
ethical
Eth c3
Current 3
• Use of contextual data seen as being more difficult as a result of
SNC policy.
 NETT congruence survey of institution staff highlighted a
number of concerns and confusion within just one selective
provider over their ability to use contextual data and other
measures to widen participation.
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
ethical
Eth f1
Forecast
• Risk of practice that doesn’t consider socio-cultural or educational
impact is allowed to continue unimpeded. Arguably some of these
practices will be increasing choice for certain candidate groups,
but influence on applicants at a pressured time needs to be
considered.
• If evidence shows that certain groups are disadvantaged, there
will be increased pressure on WP approach and funding thereof
(e.g. differential offers if choosing an institution as firm rather than
insurance…).
back to
STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
political
Pol c1
Current 1
• Lack of ‘joined up’ approach – e.g.
 between BIS who claim to be supporting growth of overseas
students (see para 3.15 of the White Paper) and Home Office
who want to reduce net migration figures (albeit with slight
increases in student visas issued recently). See also UUK blog
on Busting migration myths 05.06.13.
 between DfE educational reforms including pressure to avoid
grade inflation and BIS who were planning for a larger number
of AABs in 2012.
 between educational policies across different constituent parts
of UK
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
political
Pol c2
Current 2
• Not linking Access Agreements to other parts of SNC agenda.
 OFFA update on aligning offa and hefce processes
• Some incongruence within HE Providers on understanding of
government’s rationale for SNC changes.
 NETT congruence survey of institution staff – 68% of
respondents believed their understanding of the government’s
rationale wasn’t as good as it should be.
• View that Government sees this as simply a matter of funding
allocation and fails to see impact on schools, IAG providers and
HE Providers.
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
political
Pol f1
Forecast 1
• Difficult for current mechanism for determining SNC exemptions to
absorb entirely new qualifications or substantial changes to
existing ones, building in greater uncertainty and lack of
comparability when new qualifications are introduced.
• Instability of policy as a result of possible change to, or redirection
of, government in 2015.
 THE article - Labour fees policy may prove unworkable
13.06.13
• Likely to be greater diversification of HE sector, in terms of
alternative provider growth, alternative delivery modes and crossborder flows, but not greater volume of total student population.
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
political
Pol f2
Forecast 2
• Perceived lack of progress on social mobility, particularly within
some institutions, may provoke more direct political action and a
redirection of funding measures to promote greater inclusion.
 Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission report - Higher
Education: the Fair Access Challenge 17.06.13
back to
STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
legal
Leg c1
Current 1
• Greater competition within the sector, making HEIs more wary to
share information or intelligence with each other, as they become
more aware of Competition Law.
 Martineau bulletin - Universities, competition law and
information exchange
• Sector bodies (such as UCAS) similarly affected and not able to
provide key services demanded by sector (e.g. suppression of
data at 15 January in 2013 cycle; concerns over producing an
SNC status algorithm if any degree of inaccuracy could lead to
litigation).
 THE article - Ucas withholds 2013-14 application data 14.02.13
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
legal
Leg c2
Current 2
• Institutions, as a result of the above, reviewing the nature of their
relationship with UCAS and matters related to the ownership of
data.
• No HE Bill presented to Parliament following 2011 reforms so
policy / position still subject to change / challenge.
 THE article - HE bill ‘to be shelved indefinitely’ 24.01.12
• Fragmentation of sector ‘regulatory’ bodies (HEFCE, OFFA, SLC,
etc) causing policy conflict.
• Lack of broadly available sector legal guidance and no precedent
in face of legal challenge as of yet.
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
legal
Leg c3
Current 3
• Increased use of solicitors by applicants and students to pursue
complaints and appeals – this appears to be part of a much
broader cultural shift over several years; recent changes may be
adding to an already existing complex range of factors.
 annual reports of the Office of the Independent Adjudicator(N.B.
these relate only to student complaints; no national information is collected
on applicant complaints)

BBC news article - University complaints 'rise by a quarter',
says watchdog 13.06.13
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
legal
Leg c4
Current 4
• Equality impact – HEFCE conducted initial impact assessment on
SNC proposals, but it is unclear if a full equality impact
assessment has been carried out on the actual events following
implementation.
 HEFCE's initial sector impact assessment (updated January
2012)
 HEFCE's commitment to develop a monitoring mechanism on
equality impact
 ECU report - Equitable admissions for underrepresented
groups
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
legal
Leg f1
Forecast
• General increased risk of litigation, rise of complaints, etc.
• Challenges to UCAS policy around EU (non-UK) providers.
• Challenges to high grades policy around exclusion of EU
qualifications.
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STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
educational
Edu c1
Current 1
• Risk of a new binary divide between the SNCs and the SNCexempts. IPPR are suggesting exempting some WP students
from SNC for some (selective) institutions.
 IPPR report - A critical path: securing the future of higher education in England
 quotation from David Willetts in THE 25.04.13
 BIS SNC policy letter to HEFCE
• Risk of universities failing due to lack of numbers with consequent
impacts on students and applicants.
 Telegraph article - Universities could go bust
 Policy Exchange report -sink or swim
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
educational
Edu c2
Current 2
• Early data suggests reductions in certain subject areas more
pronounced than others.
 UUK The funding environment for universities (fig. 2.17 to 2.21)
• Unintended consequences of providing colleges with direct
allocation puts strain on existing arrangements and resulted in
claw-back of numbers to the parent university. Indications that
some institutions are reversing the position in 2013.
 TES article - Shock as universities told to drop college
franchises 12.03.10
 Guardian article - HE in FE: top tips and resources to promote
collaboration 09.02.12
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
educational
Edu c3
Current 3
• Educational calendar of HE decision making (for applicants) outof-step with institutions’ decision-making based on SNC policy
change.
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
educational
Edu f1
Forecast 1
• Definition of success for universities needs to be reconsidered
(e.g. institutions with no SNC but high non-SNC numbers).
• Policy approach has prompted some institutions, or departments
within institutions, to consider qualifications equivalencies and
occasionally review their entry requirements, perhaps with
additional support provided / changes of teaching methods for
some types of entrants.
• A Level and GCSE reforms – format unclear.
 OFQUAL information on qualification reform
 Guardian article - Michael Gove unveils GCSE reforms
11.06.13
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
educational
Edu f2
Forecast 2
• Risk of unplaced applicants if revert to previous system.
• Pressure on the use of predicted grades in Schools.
• League tables of SNC shortfalls as a proxy indicator for popularity
whereas it is as much an indicator of offer-making strategies and
propensity to take risk.
• League tables of SNC shortfalls as a proxy indicator for popularity
whereas it is as much an indicator of offer-making strategies and
propensity to take risk.
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STEEPLED
snapshot as of June 2013
demographic
Dem c1
Current 1
• Relatively little change in application rates from young entrants
once effect of declining 18yr old population accounted for,
although application rate still not quite at 2011 level.
 UCAS End of Cycle report 2012
 HEPI report - Higher Education Supply and Demand to 2020
 plus report on Demand for Higher Education to 2029
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
demographic
Dem c2
Current 2
• POLAR quintiles 1 & 2 seem least affected in terms of application
rate (but too early to judge longer-term effect). Uncertain whether
affect by enrolment is different to that for application/acceptance.
 UCAS End of Cycle report 2012
 Independent Commission on Fees - Analysis of UCAS
acceptances for 2012/2013 admissions
• Still additional non-participating individuals who would have been
expected to go into HE (particularly higher POLAR quintiles and
mature) – were they totally disengaged or temporarily displaced?
 UUK blog - University admissions 2012-13: more displacement
than dip 02.10.12
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STEEPLED
More current
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
demographic
Dem c3
Current 3
• Reduction in participation rate from mature students over 30yr old,
even if rate 21-30 is staying relatively stable. There has been an
even greater decline in part-time mature student applications and
acceptances.
 UCAS End of Cycle report 2012
 Independent Commission on Fees - Analysis of UCAS
acceptances for 2012/2013 admissions
 Professor Claire Callender's keynote speech on the benefits of
part-time study presented at the HEA conference What can
higher education contribute to improving social mobility in the
UK?
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STEEPLED
On to the
forecast
snapshot as of June 2013
demographic
Dem f1
Forecast 1
• Dip in 18yr-old group for a further seven years to 2020.
 HEPI report - Higher Education Supply and Demand to 2020
• Potential for wider fluctuations of participation rates at particular
institutions based on region and the number of competitors in a
locale.
 HEPI report - Higher Education Supply and Demand to 2020
 Liverpool Daily Post article - Unprecedented competition for
places at Merseyside universities 05.07.12
 THE article - Rural A-level students ‘much less likely’ to go to
university 20.06.13
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STEEPLED
More forecast
developments
snapshot as of June 2013
demographic
Dem f2
Forecast 2
• Mature students’ participation rates may be liable to change.
• No real growth in student numbers, so any gains in particular
institutions / parts of the sector is at the loss of other institutions /
parts of the sector.
• Future potential applicants will be planning HE entry after 2012
changes introduced (rather than many current groups who were
already committed to A Level syllabus) – this could affect future
choices on applying to HE.
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STEEPLED