The Year in Review - DePaul University
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Transcript The Year in Review - DePaul University
Video Games
Industry Overview
Moi?
PhD – Games and AI @ NU
Humanities/Art Background @ U of C
5 years working with
Game Developers Conference
International Game Developers Assoc.
Academic Outreach
Game Studies Curriculum
Moi, aussi.
Other work:
Animate Arts at Northwestern
Game Design & Tuning Workshop
Experimental Gameplay Workshop
AAAI Games Workshops
Indie Game Jam
Misc. Travel & Conferences
Talk Overview
Industry Background
Industry Overview
Trends & Highlights
Issues & Opportunities
Wrapping up
Industry Background
Development Snapshot
1999
3-5 people
12-18 months
$100k->$400k
Many games had
little marketing $$
2003
20-100+ people
15-30+ months
$2million -> $10m+
Any game done will
have real marketing
Publishing Snapshot
Publishers
Pay for development
Own the IP
Market and Sell
Move boxes to retail
Handle QA and CS
Focus test
Manage many projects
Developers
Build all content
Build all technology
Large dedicated team
Often on milestones
Some internal QA
… with many exceptions
Market Snapshot A
Overall
~20 publishers, 700+ development groups
~1200 new titles on PC and Console in ’02
“$12b software sales” in ’02
35% aggregate revenue growth in ’02
Games & Platforms
EverQuest: ~400,000 subscribers
Game Boy: over 100 million total
Sony: 70 million+ shipped consoles by 2003
Market Snapshot B
NOT as big as Hollywood
2002 US domestic game sales: $5.5 billion
2002 US domestic box office: $9.1 billion
2002 US Leisure/Ent. Book Sales: $9.5 billion
2002 US Music Sales: $12.2 billion
2001 NAB/TVB US ad revenue: $54.4 billion
We are still a niche medium
2002 US domestic games units: 162.7 million
2992 US domestic movie tix: 1.9 BILLION
Lots to figure out!
Competing visions about what is
happening, and why.
Big picture thinking is hazy.
Generally reactive, not proactive
Industry Overview
Hot topics?
Publishers Managing Risk
“Mass Market” Penetration
Innovation and Technology
Mobile and Social gaming
The current “vibe”
Conservative Times
Projects: larger and more expensive
New Technology: threatens stability
of established development practices
Evaluation: What makes a game
successful?
Projects
Platform Choice
Team Size/Capabilities
Genre/Market
Original IP or Sequel
How to Differentiate?
Technology
New or Leveraged
Original or Licensed
Network/Community requirements
Which bangs and whistles
Long-term strategies and goals?
Evaluation
Who is buying?
Why?
What?
Who are we ignoring?
How can we grow our market?
Trends & Highlights
Quality is up!
Everything looks pretty spectacular
PC games are still selling
Online = on line!
Interesting console games get press
Katamari Damacy!
New Ideas Emerging
Selling stuff
Making stuff
Steam
Online Console
Content Creation
Design
Episodic games
Simulation and procedural animation
Good news?
Despite glitches, games are selling.
Particularly:
Racing games
Sports games
Shooters (WWII & SciFi)
Sims
Bad news?
Christmas Crunch
Which to buy?
How many to buy?
When to buy?
Top 10 titles more competitive
Good or bad...
... depending on who you are
Issues & Opportunities
A friend of mine says...
Kim Pallister (Intel)
CES 2005
Same basic points!
Summary follows...
Biz Stuff
Consolidation
Collapse of vertical model
Expanded “channels”, increased
market share
Geoffrey Moore's “Crossing the
Chasm” and “Inside the Tornado”
Parallelism
Already happening
multi-threading
streaming architectures
Xbox2,PS3, PC: converging on a hybrid
PC's already there (CPU + GPU).
“this will be the most challenging
transition facing the game development
community since the move from 2D to
3D.”
Mobile Games
What is a “mobile game”?
Platform strengths
Limitations
New audiences
New “verbs” or “memes”?
Asia
300M+ broadband over 4-5 years.
not just a new segment –
“potentially THE BIGGEST SEGMENT
of players so far”
Huge impact on all fronts
Beyond Graphics
“Great Game Graphics – Who
Cares?”
Physics and Simulation
Puppets -> Actors
I’ve been noticing...
GameTech 2004
Tech directors, graphics folks
Common issues and strategies
Issues anyone can learn from
Innovation = expensive
Tool chains
Design
Communication
Management
Research = expensive
Small games, small audiences
Marketing and sales
What a flop teaches us
Tomb Raider: AOD
Prince of Persia I and II
Simple things
Animation blending
Agent Coordination
Application of simple models
Lanchester’s law
Planning
Players become producers
Player communities and mods
Asia and Outsourcing
Game studies and Game Design
??
Diversity = key
New ideas
Better ears
Better eyes
Quality of Life
Wrapping up
Lots of hard problems
Biz: Long-term vision needed
Marketing: Plenty of room to grow
Startup: DIY hard, but still possible
Design: Innovation will be key
Mgmt: increasingly important
Contact
Robin Hunicke
[email protected]
www.cs.northwestern.edu/~hunicke
Questions, please!!