Transcript Document

Assessing the energy and emission reduction
potentials in the UK industry sector in the
scope of an energy systems analysis
Birgit Fais, Nagore Sabio, Neil Strachan
UCL Energy Institute, University College London
37th IAEE International Conference
New York, June 16, 2014
Agenda
1. Introduction and objective
2. Model and methodological approach
3. Comparative scenario analysis on the UK energy system
4. Conclusion
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1. Introduction and objective
UK climate policy
• Climate Change Act (2008): legally binding framework for the abatement of
greenhouse gas emissions committing the country to an emission reduction
of 80 % until 2050 compared to the level in 1990
• In line with the EU Energy Efficiency Directive: indicative national energy
efficiency target of an 18 % reduction in final energy consumption for 2020
compared to the UK’s 2007 BAU projection for 2020
UK industry sector
• Accounts for slightly more than a quarter of total greenhouse gas emissions
and almost a fifth of final energy consumption
• Dual challenge of implementing low energy and low carbon technologies
while at the same time maintaining international competitiveness
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Motivation and objective for this analysis
Low-carbon systems analysis often
focuses on the evaluation of the
mitigation potentials on the energy
supply side, but substantial contribution
is required from the different energy
end-use sectors if the ambitious longterm targets are to be fulfilled.
Bottom-up energy system models constitute powerful tools to analyse longterm emission reduction pathways in a
systematic manner with the advantages
of including a high level of technological
detail and accounting for all interactions
within the energy system.
BUT: due to the complexity of the industry sector, its representation in energy system
models is often strongly simplified without including the actual production processes
and accounting for the substantial differences between subsectors.
OBJECTIVE: develop a new, process-oriented modelling approach for the industry sector in energy system models based on process level data from a bottom-up industrial
energy database and apply it in a scenario analysis for the UK energy system
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2. Model and methodological approach
UKTM – The UK TIMES energy system model
• Bottom-up integrated energy system model → technology-rich, dynamic,
linear programming optimisation, partial equilibrium model
• Representation of the entire UK energy system with detailed description
of the demand sectors (industry, residential, tertiary, agriculture and
transport), public & industrial electricity and heat production, refineries
and other fuel conversion
• Successor to UK MARKAL
• New features: flexible modelling of storage and other energy
infrastructures, representation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, Non-energy
mitigation options, new time slices (4 intra-day x 4 seasonal)
• Open source modelling: Transparency at the forefront of development
(data, assumptions, structure is clear and traceable, full replicability of
results, comprehensive QA processes)
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Modelling the industry sector in energy system models
Traditional approach: aggregated service demand module
Relatively simple model structure based on the different types of industrial
energy service demands (e.g. high temp. heat, motor drive, drying, etc.)
Shortcomings
The actual process technologies in the various industry subsectors are usually not
explicitly modelled
→ important technological constraints can often not be accounted for
→ radical technological changes in the production processes (e.g. CCS technologies)
cannot be included
→ difficult to consider process emissions and mitigation options for these emissions.
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New approach: disaggregated hybrid module
Based on the Usable Energy Database (UED) (Griffin et al., 2013): baseline
energy use and emissions by technology in 2010 and a wide range of possible
future technologies for a number of energy-intensive industry sectors in the UK.
Structure of the new industry sector in UKTM
IIS
ICM
IPP
Iron & steel
Cement
Pulp & paper
ICH
Chemicals
IFD
INF
INM
IOI
Food & Drink
Non-ferrous metals
Other non-metallic mineral products
Others
Modelled in a process-oriented manner based on the structure
given in the Usable Energy Database; demand commodities are
specified as physical goods
Olefins and ammonia are separated and modelled processoriented, the rest of the sector is modelled based on energy
Modelled based on energy service demands : high temperature
processes, low temperature processes, drying/separation, motor
drive, refrigeration, and others
Technology choices in the process-oriented sectors
(1) exploitation of already commercial technology options with higher energy
efficiency or less carbon-intensive energy inputs;
(2) improvement potentials for already installed process technologies;
(3) more radical process changes.
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Example:
Cement
industry
Fuels
Limestone
Dummy Clinker before precalciner
Dummy Clinker CCS retrofit
Clinker
Electricity
GGBFS
Cement
Semi-wet kiln, exist.
Semi-dry kiln, exist.
Dry kiln with precalciner, exist.
Dry kiln w/o precalciner, exist.
Precalciner, new
Grinding and mixing, exist.
Dry kiln, BAT
Fluidised bed kiln
BAT kiln with increased waste
utilisation
Fluidised bed kiln with increased
waste utilisation
BAT kiln with MEA Postcombustion CCS
Legend
Existing technologies
New, Energy efficiency options
New, fuel switching options
New, CCS options
Grinding & mixing,
clinker substitution option
BAT kiln with KS-1 Postcombustion CCS
BAT kiln with Partial Oxycombustion CCS
MEA Post-combustion
CCS retrofit
KS-1 Post-combustion
CCS retrofit
Partial Oxy-combustion
CCS retrofit
Cement substition option
Grinding and mixing, new
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Grinding and mixing with
increased clinker substituion
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Low CO2 cements
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3. Comparative scenario analysis
Objective: assess the contribution of the UK industry sector to
emission and energy demand reduction targets
Scenario
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
Description
Business as usual reflecting the current policy framework
REF + emission reduction target of 80 % until 2050 compared
to 1990
GHG80 + reduction in final energy consumption of 1.5% per
year until 2020, of 1% per year until 2040 and 0.5% per year
until 2050
Basic scenario assumptions (2010-2050):
• GDP growth rate of 2.4% p.a.
• Population growth of 0.5% p.a.
• Rise in the world market price for crude oil of 73% (in real terms)
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Final energy consumption [PJ]
Results (1): Industrial energy consumption
• Reduction in energy consumption already in REF due to decline in production, the
shift to high value, less energy-intensive subsectors, use of profitable energy efficiency
options (rising fossil fuel prices!)
• No additional reduction in GHG80: stronger emphasis on energy efficiency measures
but balancing effect due to use of CCS, industry CHP and biomass options
• Strong additional emphasis on energy efficiency in GHG80_FEC and less use of CCS,
biomass and CHP options
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Fuel consumption [PJ]
Results (2): Fuel consumption in industry CHP plants
• Contribution of CHP drops significantly in REF due to the availability of cheap
electricity from the public generation sector
• In low-carbon scenario GHG80, use of biomass in CHP plants is a viable emission
abatement option.
• Specification of energy efficiency target (on final energy consumption) leads to
considerable decline in industry CHP generation in GHG80_FEC
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Results (3): Contribution to energy efficiency
• Increase of final energy consumption of 8% between 2010 and 2050 in REF, reductions
only realized in the industry sector
• Reduction of 8% in GHG80, electrification and uptake of conservation measures in
residential and tertiary sector; strongest reductions still in industry
• Additional efforts to improve energy efficiency needed in GHG80_FEC, industry leads
reduction of final energy consumption with -38% between 2010 and 2050
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2015
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
REF
GHG80_FEC
2040
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
REF
REF
GHG80
GHG80
REF
GHG80
2015
REF
REF
REF
REF
GHG80
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
2030
GHG80
2010
2020
REF
GHG80_FEC
Processing & Upstream
Services
Transport*
GHG80
REF
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
REF
2015
2015
Processing & Upstream
Services
2020
2030
Transport*
Electricity
Industry
Non-energy use
REF
REF
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
REF
2010
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
2010
GHG emissions [Mt CO2eq]
Results (4): Greenhouse gas emissions
GHG80
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
2010
0
-100
REF
300
200
100
0
-100
GH
GHG emissio
GHG emissions [Mt CO
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Processing & Upstream
Services
2020
2030
Transport*
Electricity
Industry
2040
2050
Non-energy use
Agriculture
Residential
2020
Ele
Ind
20
No
Ag
Re
* inclu
* including int. aviation & shipping
2050
• HighestProcessing
contribution
to emission
reduction until 2050
from electricity generation
& Upstream
Electricity
Agriculture
Residential
(-100%),Services
followed
by service Industry
sector (-73%) and industry
(-68%)
*
Transport
Non-energy use
* including int. aviation & shipping
• CCS technologies (used in blast furnaces, cement kilns and steam reforming)
particularly important for the reduction of process related emissions
• Contribution of the industry sector to emission reduction is reduced considerably with
the implementation of the energy efficiency target
• Additional energy efficiency target has dampening effect on GHG emission price
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Results (5): Energy system costs
Difference in annual undiscounted energy system cost
2020
2030
2050
Cumulated 2010-2050
[Bn £2010]
GHG80 vs. REF
0.2%
1.5%
7.5%
489.4
GHG80_FEC vs. REF
1.8%
3.3%
13.5%
906.0
GHG80_FEC vs. GHG80
1.5%
1.8%
5.6%
416.6
• Consistent manner of assessing the additional energy system-wide cost burden caused
by the introduction of ambitious emission and energy reduction targets
• The transition to a low-carbon energy system in the UK causes additional costs to the
energy system of almost £500 billion cumulated over the period from 2010 and 2050.
• Implementing an additional target on energy efficiency can distort the cost efficient
pathway of reaching the desired emission reductions.
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100
80
60
40
20
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REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
2020
2030
2040
Biomass and waste
Electricity
Hydrogen
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil Products
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
0
2050
2040
2020
2030
2050
2040
2050
Biomass and waste Natural
Coal Gas
Electricity
Electricity
Natural Gas
Manufactured
Process
by-products
Hydrogen fuels
Oil Products
Coal
Coal
Natural
Gas
Oil Products
Oil Products
Paper
120
2010
Final energy consumption [PJ]
Biomass
and and
biofuels
Biomass
waste
Electricity
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
2030
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
2050
Chemicals
250
200
150
100
50
0
2020
2030
2040
Biomass and waste
Electricity
Hydrogen
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil Products
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80
REF
GHG80_FEC
2020
2040
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
2030
2020
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
2010
0
0
REF
REF
GHG80
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
REF
REF
GHG80
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
GHG80_FEC
50
50
REF
GHG80
GHG80_FEC
100
100
2010
150
150
2010
200
200
Cement
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
GHG80
Final energy consumption [PJ]
GHG80_FEC
Iron & steel
Final energy consumption [PJ]
250
250
2010
Final energy consumption [PJ]
Results (6): Sector-wise assessment
2050
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4. Conclusions
• A more detailed, process-oriented representation of the industry sector in a
bottom-up energy system model can help to evaluate the contribution of this
sector to long-term energy and emission reduction targets.
• The main emission reduction options in the UK industry sector comprise
energy efficiency measures, the use of biomass for heating, CCS technologies
in the iron and steel, cement and chemical industry as well as applying some
radical changes in the production processes of these sectors.
• Interactions between the emission reduction target and additional targets for
energy efficiency (or renewables) need to be taken into account as they might
result in a distortion of the cost efficient emission reduction pathway.
• Further methodological work is needed to (1) improve the representation of
the less energy-intensive and highly heterogeneous industrial subsectors, (2)
address the uncertainty in the technological parameters and (3) assess the
effects of the transition to a low-carbon energy system on industrial
production levels in the UK.
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Thank you for your attention!
Birgit Fais
Research Associate
UCL Energy Institute
University College London
Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place
London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom
Phone: +44 20 3108 5940
Email: [email protected]
This analysis was part of the UKERC project “Industrial Energy Use from a
Bottom-up Perspective” (http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/RF2IndustrialEnergyUse)
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BACK UP
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Demand projections for the industry sector in UKTM
Iron and steel (hot rolled steel)
Cement
Paper and paper products
Chemicals High value chemicals
Ammonia
Others
Non-ferrous metals
Other non-metallic minerals
Food, drink and tobacco
Other industries
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Output in
2010 [kt]
8415
9440
4564
3840
950
-
2010
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2015
0.92
1.01
0.90
1.05
1.05
0.94
0.92
1.01
0.92
0.84
Demand driver, 2010 = 1
2020
2030
0.90
0.87
1.01
1.00
0.87
0.81
1.16
1.41
1.16
1.41
0.92
0.89
0.90
0.87
1.01
1.00
0.96
1.03
0.83
0.80
2040
0.83
0.97
0.75
1.72
1.72
0.87
0.83
0.97
1.11
0.78
2050
0.80
0.89
0.70
2.10
2.10
0.84
0.80
0.89
1.20
0.75
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