Transcript Slide 1

Looking for Leverage: Key Tasks and Policies
Working Poor Families Project
Academy on State Postsecondary Policy
Julie Strawn
Center for Law and Social Policy
[email protected]
June 2006
What this academy is about
•
Introduce you to key state policy issues and
ideas – emphasis here is on solutions
•
Provide a chance to hear about experiences of
peers who are already working on these issues
•
Equip you with some resources for future work
•
Lay the groundwork for working together in the
future to help each other be more effective
advocates for low income adults on
postsecondary issues
Why focus on postsecondary?
• Workers need mid-level skills―about a year’s
worth of technical education and a credential―to
qualify for many family-supporting jobs
• Businesses need more workers with mid-level
skills (one year certificates, Associate degrees)
• Can’t fix this only through high school reform
– E.g. WA state: no. of workers (age 18-45) with h.s. ed. or
less = the next 10 years of high school graduating classes
• Current state policies are not effective in
helping working adults to gain postsecondary
credentials
Why focus on postsecondary?
• Earnings and employment both increase with educational
attainment; spells of unemployment fall. Each year of
college increases wages by 10%. (Rouse 2001)
• Premium paid by employers for college degree has nearly
doubled in last two decades – from $5.24 in 1979 to $9.77
in 2001 (EPI, in 2001 dollars).
• Jobs requiring some sort of post-secondary credential are
growing 60% faster than those requiring high school or less.
By 2014 higher-skilled jobs will increase as a proportion of
total US jobs to around 54%, up from 52%. (BLS)
• According to the 2004 Current Population Survey, 43
percent of adults between the ages of 25 and 64 have high
school education or less. (Jenkins, 2006, from CPS data)
Education, Weekly Earnings and
Unemployment, U.S. 2004
$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Current Population Survey
< 9th Grade
HS
Some
college
Weekly Earnings
AA Deg
BA Deg
Unemployment Rate
Slower growth in skilled workers—an opportunity?
• Native workforce is aging—no new net growth
expected through 2020 in prime age workers
• The rapid growth in skills of the workforce seen over
the last 20 years is expected to slow dramatically
(Aspen Institute 2002).
• May create chance to bring lower skilled adults and
youth into good jobs—if workforce education system
has capacity to serve them successfully
• Big unknowns: retirement choices of baby boomers,
numbers/skills of immigrants, future job skill
requirements
Workers with education beyond high school
Labor force, in millions
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980-2000, 138% growth
2000-2020, 19% growth
Source: Grow Faster Together. Or Grow Slowly Apart. (2002) Washington, DC: The Aspen Institute.
Share of Workforce Growth Due to Immigration
50.3%
26.7%
10.2%
1970's
1980's
1990's
Source: Sum, A., Fogg, N., Harrington, P. with Khatiwada, I., Trubb’sky, M., and Palma, S. (2002, August). Immigrant
Workers and the Great American Job Machine: The Contributions Of New Foreign Immigration to National and Regional
Labor Force Growth in the 1990s. Boston, MA: Northeastern University.
Key state policy tasks
1)
Create a shared vision of state’s future and why
increasing access for adults to postsecondary
credentials is key to getting there
2)
Set measurable goals for achieving that vision
and ask whether funding flows in ways that
support progress toward those goals
3)
Put in place mechanisms that ensure workforce
education offerings reflect the skills workers
need to advance and businesses need to grow
Key state policy tasks
4)
Track individual outcomes across workforce
education services and into the labor market
to identify trouble spots and document
successful approaches
5)
Fix the leaky pipeline of adults into and
through postsecondary workforce education
6)
Support access and success for nontraditional
students
7)
Fund continuous innovation to better meet
worker and business needs
Creating a shared vision and goals
1)
Create a shared vision of state’s future and
why increasing access for adults to postsecondary credentials is key to getting there
•
Narrative of problem may be different for each of you, e.g.
“CO Paradox” state has good jobs but imports skilled labor;
In many Midwest states, it’s about having a skilled
workforce to compete for new knowledge jobs
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Clear message about what needs done. E.g. KY’s Education
Pays/Go Higher, OH Gov.’s goal of 30% increase in
postsecondary enrollment, MI Gov.’s goal of double the
numbers of college graduates
KY GoHigher ad
• http://www.collegeaccessmarketing.org/galleryi
mages/003_lg.jpg
Creating a shared vision and goals
2)
Set measurable goals for achieving that vision and
ask whether funding flows in ways that support
progress toward those goals.
–
E.g. GoHigher goals and progress reports
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How does state funding for workforce education services
compare to demand for services and cost of services?
Contrast funding for adult ed./ESL, noncredit and for-credit
workforce education., college remedial education.
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Do other funding streams support these goals? Look at both
policies and expenditures in student aid, TANF, WIA,
incumbent worker and customized trg. programs,
economic development, and child care
KY Example: GoHigher Progress Measures
• Question 1- Are more Kentuckians ready for
postsecondary education?
• Question 2- Is Kentucky postsecondary education
affordable to its citizens?
• Question 3- Do more Kentuckians have certificates
and degrees?
• Question 4- Are college graduates prepared for life and
work in Kentucky?
• Question 5- Are Kentucky's people, communities and
economy benefiting?
Getting businesses and workers what they need
Put in place mechanisms to ensure workforce
education offerings reflect the skills workers
need to advance and businesses need to grow
3)
4)
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Nothing automatic about postsecondary education translating
into either good jobs or competitive businesses
–
E.g. Career Pathways, MI Regional Skill Alliances, IL Critical
Skills Shortage Initiative, WA Skill Panels and Centers of
Excellence, GA Statewide Skills Certifications.
Track individual outcomes across workforce
education services and into the labor market
to identify trouble spots and document
successful approaches
Annual Supply and Demand for Prepared Workers
by Education Level*
Mid Level Preparation*
(Includes Associates Level
Baccalaureate
Masters
Professional
Workforce Supply
Entry Demand
Ultimate Demand
Doctorate
Long Preparation (Sum of
Baccalaureate - Doctorate)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
* Mid-level supply is based on 2002-2003 data. Other levels 2003-2004. Demand is based on the
projected annual average number of job openings 2007-2012
30,000
35,000
WA Example: “Tipping Point” as frame
• WA study: “tipping point” for substantial earnings payoff
from college is at least 30 vocational credits plus a
credential. Other research supports this.
– $2,700 and $1,700 more per year (respectively) for workforce students entering
with high school diploma or GED
– Even larger increases for lower skilled students and those with limited English;
ESL students earn $7,000 more per year and ABE students $8,500 more annually
• By contrast those in short-term customized training don’t
gain enough skills to reach tipping point
– Earn $3,800 less per year than those who reach the tipping point; $6,800 less per
year if they started from ABE. (SBCTC, 2005, outcomes for 35,000 students)
• “Tipping point” workers need = mid-level skills
employers need
• Redirect $’s to support this—New Opportunity Grants
pilot, enhanced FTE for I-BEST
Median Annual Earnings for CCC CalWORKs Women
Leaving with Associate Degrees by Vocational Program
Median Annual Earnings
$40,000
$35,000
First Year Out
$30,000
Second Year Out
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Business
Admin.
Assistant
Computer
Nursing/
Dental
Lifespan
Social
Services
Fixing the leaky pipeline
•
Lack of alignment of goals and content between adult
ed/ESL, college remediation, and non-credit and credit
workforce education
•
Low rate of transitions from adult ed/ESL and college
remediation. into for-credit programs
•
Few adult education and developmental education students
ever complete enough postsecondary workforce education to
pay off in labor market
•
For lower skilled adults obtaining marketable credentials
takes too long, especially given competing work and family
responsibilities
•
Adults who complete noncredit occupational programs often
find that work does not connect to degrees
Community College Adult Basic
Skills Education Outcomes
(Prince and Jenkins, 2005)
Five-Year Highest Attainment of Adult Basic Skills Students Who
Started at a WA Community or Technical College
By Initial Program Type
100%
87%
90%
80%
70%
62%
60%
50%
ABE
ESL
40%
30%
20%
10%
16%
9%
7%
0%
7%
2%
4% 3%
1% 1%
Certificate
Associate
Degree
0%
GED
No College < 10 Credits
Credits
Source: Prince & Jenkins (forthcoming).
10-44
Credits
Percent of adult ed./ESL going on to college
100
80
60
40
20
0
AR
KY
LA
OH
OR
All students Students with college goal
US
Increasing access and success
Barriers to access and success for low income
adults:
• Lack of confidence and personal support
• Lower skills and/or limited English
• Limited exposure to career possibilities
• Financial and logistical barriers
• Difficulty of navigating complex bureaucracies
• Juggling work, family and school
Affordability
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
AR
KY
LA
OH
OR
Top
States
Share of income needed for net CC costs, bottom 1/5 of families, 2004
Share of income needed for net CC costs, all families, 2004
State spending on need-based fin. aid as % of fed. spending, 2004
Community College Degree
Program Education Outcomes
(Prince and Jenkins, 2005)
Six-Year Highest Educational Attainment of Students who Started
at a Community College in 1995-96
By Age at Enrollment
70%
60%
60%
50%
40%
39%
Ages 18-24
Ages 25-64
30%
20%
10%
17%
8%
17%
11%
14%
9%
6%
4%
13%
2%
0%
Not
Certificate Associate
Still
Transfer
Bachelor's
Enrolled
Degree
Enrolled (No Degree)
Degree
(No Degree)
(No Degree)
Source: Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS:96-01). Authors’ calculations.
Venture capital for innovation
7)
Fund continuous innovation to better meet
worker and business needs
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•
•
•
•
•
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WIA performance and Gov.’s discretionary funds
Perkins and Adult Ed. state leadership funds
TANF funds
Incumbent worker/customized training funds
Economic development funds
Private foundation grants and federal grants
Fund innovation in ways that make it
sustainable, so it doesn’t go away when grants
do—what’s the business model?