Transcript 36 Large Cities with 2 or More Decades of Postwar

Understanding Metropolitan Change:
The Urban Turnaround, Boomburbs, and
Growth Counties
Robert Lang, Ph.D.
Professor and Director
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
Alexandria, Virginia
Census 2000 Conference
UC Berkeley
November 1, 2002
Key Trends
• 1990s were the best decade for big,
traditional cities since the 1940s
• A new category of suburban super city, or
“boomburb” is emerging
• Many metropolitan core counties are
growing more diverse, while peripheral
counties remain mostly white
36 Large Cities in the “Urban Turnaround”
Analysis
Akron, OH
Atlanta, GA
Baltimore, MD
Birmingham, AL
Boston, MA
Buffalo, NY
Chicago, IL
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Dayton, OH
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Jersey City, NJ
Kansas City, MO
Louisville, KY
Milwaukee, WI
Minneapolis, MN
New Orleans, LA
New York, NY
Newark, NJ
Norfolk, VA
Oakland, CA
Philadelphia, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Portland, OR
Providence, RI
Richmond, VA
Rochester, NY
San Francisco, CA
Seattle, WA
St. Louis, MO
St. Paul, MN
Syracuse, NY
Toledo, OH
Washington, DC
Worcester, MA
Criteria for Cities
• 200,000 or more population in 1950, which
in 1950 came to 50 cities
• At least two decades of decline from 1950
to 2000, which resulted in 36 cities
Numbers of Older Industrial
Cities Gaining and Losing Population
by Decade, 1950-2000
20
10
13
10
8
0
0
1950s
10
15
23
1960s
1970s
1980s
26
28
1990s
21
36
20
30
40
Number of cities gaining population
Source:
Number of cities losing population
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
Tabulations of decennial census data by Patrick A. Simmons and Robert E. Lang
Best and Worst Decades
For Population Growth in Older
Industrial Cities
(Based on Numeric Population Change)
20
15
10
5
0
15
12
3
5
1
0
4
3
0
1980s
1990s
5
10
29
15
20
25
30
35
1950s
1960s
1970s
Number of cities gaining population
Source:
Number of cities losing population
Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
Tabulations of decennial census data by Patrick A. Simmons and Robert E. Lang
The 53 Boomburbs
Arizona: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Tempe
California: Anaheim, Corona, Costa Mesa, Fontana, Fullerton, Irvine, Lancaster,
Moreno Valley, Ontario, Orange, Oxnard, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside,
San Bernardino, Santa Ana, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks,
Chula Vista, Escondido, Oceanside, Daly City, Fremont, Santa Rosa,
Sunnyvale
Colorado: Aurora, Lakewood, Westminster
Florida: Coral Springs, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Clearwater
Nevada: Henderson, North Las Vegas
Texas: Arlington, Carrollton, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, Mesquite, Plano
Other States: Naperville, IL; Salem, OR; West Valley City, UT; Chesapeake, VA;
Bellevue, WA
Criteria for Boomburbs
• Double-digit growth for each decade since
1950
• Population above 100,000 by 2000 Census
• Not the largest central city in the region
• Located in one of the 50 largest regions in
the US, which runs from Richmond, VA to
New York
What are Boomburbs?
• Urban in fact, but not in feel
• Lack a large downtown relative to their size
(there is no skyline)
• Have “hybrid” problems: urban sprawl and
increasing poverty
• Come in two major types: immigrant
dominated and traditional suburban
Boomburbs that had the largest increase
in population in the 1990s:
Gilbert, AZ
Henderson, NV
North Las Vegas, NV
Peoria, AZ
Pembroke Pines, FL
Chandler, AZ
Metro Area
Increase
Phoenix
276%
Las Vegas
170%
Las Vegas
142%
Phoenix
114%
Miami
110%
Phoenix
95%
Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
Boomburbs 300,000 or More
Metro Area
Year started
Start pop.
2000 pop.
Mesa, AZ
Phoenix
1950
16,790
396,375
Santa Ana, CA
Los Angeles
1950
45,433
337,977
Arlington, TX
Dallas
1950
7,692
332,969
Anaheim, CA
Los Angeles
1950
14,556
328,014
Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
Crossing Paths:
Some "Boomburbs" Have Surpassed Traditional Cities
900
Population (thousands)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950
1960
1970
St. Louis, MO
Source: Fannie Mae Foundation.
1980
1990
Mesa, AZ
2000
Metropolitan Growth Counties*
County Types/
Attributes
MEGA**
Counties
Edge
Counties
New Metropolis
Counties
United
States
Population Range
Above 800,000
200,000 to 800,000
Below 200,000
……….
Total Counties
23
54
47
3,141
No. of Metro Areas
17
26
26
276
Total Population
37.0 Million
20.8 Million
4.7 Million
281.4 Million
Location in Metro
Near the Core
Middle to Edge
At the Fringe
……….
Mostly in Sunbelt
National
Mostly in East
……….
New Metro Heartlands
Metro Growth Engines
Suburbs of Suburbs
……….
High Tech Centers
In Slow-Growth Metros
Added to Metro Since 1971
……….
Clark (NV)
Lake (IL)
Loudoun (VA)
……….
US Distribution
Tag Line
What's Unique?
Example
*Growth Counties grew at double-digit rates for each census since 1950.
**MEGA (Massively Expanded, Growth-Accelerated) Counties.
Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
Growth County Criteria
• Double-digit growth for each decade since
1950
• Located in largest 50 metropolitan areas
• New Metropolis Counties added since 1971
Growth County Share of U.S. Population:
1950 and 2000
25
Percent
20
15
10
5
0
1950
2000
MEGA Counties
Maricopa, AZ
Contra Costa, CA
Orange, CA
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
San Bernardino, CA
San Diego, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Broward, FL
Hillsborough, FL
Miami-Dade, FL
Orange, FL
Palm Beach, FL
DuPage, IL
Montgomery, MD
Clark, NV
Bexar, TX
Dallas, TX
Harris, TX
Tarrant, TX
Travis, TX
Salt Lake, UT
Fairfax, VA
Edge Counties
Placer, CA
Will, IL
Butler, OH
Santa Cruz, CA
Johnson, KS
Cleveland, OK
Solano, CA
Anne Arundel, MD
Clackamas, OR
Sonoma, CA
Harford, MD
Marion, OR
Ventura, CA
Howard, MD
Washington, OR
Arapahoe, CO
Ottawa, MI
Bucks, PA
Boulder, CO
Anoka, MN
Chester, PA
Jefferson, CO
Dakota, MN
Brazoria, TX
Lake, FL
Washington, MN
Denton, TX
Pasco, FL
St. Charles, MO
Fort Bend, TX
Seminole, FL
Durham, NC
Galveston, TX
Clayton, GA
Mecklenburg, NC
Davis, UT
Cobb, GA
Wake, NC
Henrico, VA
DeKalb, GA
Hillsborough, NH
Prince William, VA
Gwinnett, GA
Rockingham, NH
Kitsap, WA
Kane, IL
Gloucester, NJ
Pierce, WA
Lake, IL
Ocean, NJ
Snohomish, WA
McHenry, IL
Orange, NY
Thurston, WA
New Metropolis Counties
El Dorado, CA
Napa, CA
Douglas, CO
Clay, FL
Hernando, FL
Nassau, FL
Osceola, FL
Barrow, GA
Cherokee, GA
Douglas, GA
Forsyth, GA
Henry, GA
Paulding, GA
Rockdale, GA
St. Charles Parish, LA
Calvert, MD
Charles, MD
Frederick, MD
Queen Anne's, MD
Allegan, MI
Livingston, MI
Carver, MN
Scott, MN
Sherburne, MN
Warren, MO
Davidson, NC
Orange, NC
Randolph, NC
Hunterdon, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Nye, NV
Fairfield, OH
Rutherford, TN
Comal, TX
Hays, TX
Johnson, TX
Culpeper, VA
Gloucester, VA
James City, VA
Loudoun, VA
New Kent, VA
Powhatan, VA
Spotsylvania, VA
Stafford, VA
Island, WA
St. Croix, WI
Washington, WI
Metropolitan Growth Counties Demographics*
County Types/
Attributes
MEGA**
Counties
Edge
Counties
New Metropolis
Counties
United
States
% Non-Hisp. White
55
76
84
69
% Married with Kids
25
28
30
24
% Homeowners
63
72
79
66
% SF Detached Unit
56
66
74
60
% Three or More Cars
16
20
25
17
27.0 min.
27.4 min.
31.2 min.
25.5 min.
Avg. Travel to Work
*Demographics are based on the averages for individual counties and not on the aggregate county total.
**MEGA (Massively Expanded, Growth-Accelerated) Counties.
Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA (mi.vt.edu)
mi.vt.edu
• Urban Turnaround (Census Note 01)
• Boomburbs (Census Note 05)
• Growth Counties (under Current Research)
Coming Soon (Spring 2003):
Bruce Katz and Robert Lang. Redefining Cities and Suburbs
Robert Lang. Edgeless Cities: Exploring the Elusive
Metropolis
Both from the Brookings Institution Press
www.mi.vt.edu