Transcript PowerPoint-presentation

HIRLAM towards meso-scale
and physics towards AROME
Europa
av Kolumn B
ALADIN (12)
COSMO (5)
HIRLAM (8)
UK
(1)
Europa
Per Undén
HIRLAM-6
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HIRLAM Vision for 2010
• (I) Best available 2.5 km meso-scale modelling
system operational in most of the HIRLAM
countries – for parts or all of the territory – and
applicable for 1 km
– Non-hydrostatic (non approximated equations)
– Efficient dynamics (long time steps possible)
– Advanced physics for clouds and precipitation species
and turbulence (convection mainly resolved)
– Advanced data assimilation that initialises particularly
the moist processes (rain and clouds)
– Integrated system for estimating the probabilities
– Transparent boundary treatment
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• (II) Synoptic scale 10 km model for
coupling from ECMWF and for regional
forecasting
– Of equal quality to global model and tightly
coupled to ECMWF
– Consistent physics with meso-scale model
– To provide best forecasts of synoptic
disturbances with short data cut off
– To provide coupling to meso-scale and other
models and many applications
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Why meso-scale model?
• Is stated in HAC strategy 2002 and in
HIRLAM-6 MoU and Management Group
needed to take intitiative
• Is absolutely needed in mountainous
countries
• Is needed for severe precipitation weather
not resolved otherwise
• Needed for applications (wind energy, radar
usage , environmental dispersion, aviation
• Because everybody else does it ……
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How?
• Develop own meso-scale model? No
• Tartu NH outside Project work and not full Euler
equations and not really used in member institutes
• Not enough dynamics staff
• Large effort – years of development
• Duplication of work in Europe
• New developments in assimilation and physics also
• Still resources needed for synoptic model as well
• Collaborate - Yes
• Quickly re-gain lost time of development
• Sharing research resources with partner(s)
– Actively contributing in many key areas
– Relying on partner(s) for other things
• Enough critical mass in all areas
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Why ALADIN?
• HIRLAM and ALADIN are closely related scientifically
 Spectral LAM and analysis with extension zones
• Both born out of ECMWF and ECMWF similarities
 ECMWF code commonality in ALADIN
• ALADIN non-hydrostatic model breakthrough
• Advanced meso-scale physics through Meso-NH ->
AROME
• Advance Data Assimilation developing
• Meteo-France participates in HIRLAM since 1992
 Good experience of MF collaboration in HIRLAM
 Informal offers in 2003 to use ALADIN NH dynamics
 Likely to be a true collaboration from both sides
– Many partners of different size
– Organisation more dispersed than HIRLAM
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Choices made (MG Sept 2003, HAC Jan
2004, Council June 2004, Dec 2004)
• Collaborate with MF/ALADIN at code
collaboration level on meso-scale
modelling =>
Achieves all the advantages of ALADIN and
AROME dynamics, physics and Data
Assimilation developments AND ECMWF IFS
System and Code standards
Commitments to synchronise the code at
regular intervals
Coordination of research in the agreed Area and
sharing of the work
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Further necessary steps
• Agreement on collaboration in meso-scale
modelling and associated areas
• Definition of cross steering mechanisms
• Formulation of rights and obligations and MoUs
2006• Coordination of common research areas for 2006 -
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Choices not made (yet?)
• Code collaboration in the rest (synoptic scale
model)
• Or HIRLAM may continue with own separate code
for synoptic scale
Scientific and technical extra work to maintain and
develop two code systems (the synoptic and meso-scale
model share large parts of the codes and scripts)
Allows for clear HIRLAM “brand” for synoptic scale
model (10 km)
Some inconsistencies in coupling of boundaries to mesoscale model (physics and also grid)
• HIRLAM physics in ALADIN synoptic model
• HIRLAM brand can still be maintained
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HIRLAM status
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Hydrostatic 2 TL SL-SI LAM
Non-hydrostatic p-anelastic kernel (Tartu)
Reference at 22 km – 40 levels
50 km – 30 – 22 – 17 – 11 – 5 km (2.5)(1.4)
Comprehensive physics for synoptic scales
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(meso-b 40-10 km)
SW/LW simple radiation
CBR TKE 1D turbulence advected TKE
ISBA surface tiled scheme with assimilation/snow/soil
STRACO conv/cond (Kuo-Sundqvist type)
Kain-Fritsch/Rash-Kristjansson alternative
Meso-scale orography/Sub grid scale implementing
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Model Physics in High Resolution NWP
Physics
“No Man’s Land”
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Resolved Convection
3-D Radiation
LES
100
km
Cumulus Parameterization
Two Stream Radiation
PBL Parameterization
Klemp (2002) Dublin WS
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6 h WRF Forecast – Reflectivity at 6/15/02 18z
4 km
Lin
10 km
Lin, KF
Radar
Composite
10 km
Lin
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(dBZ)
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(Weisman, Wang, Klemp)
HIRLAM components for Meso-scale
• Surface scheme – ISBA, snow, soil models
– Still mainly horizontally uncoupled – upper air flow
couples but flux aggregation ?
– Tiled or untiled ? – tiles still exist below 1 km
• Turbulence scheme – CBR TKE - moist
– 1D or 3D ? 1D at 3 km and 3D at 1 km?
– Interactions with cloud scheme and convection
– Shallow convection ?
• Radiation scheme – slopes considered
– 3D ? - More advanced – more species
• Cloud scheme – more advanced and more species
• MSO/SSO
– MSO relaxed but SSO needed at 1 km
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AROME and ALADIN components
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Turbulence CBR – HIRLAM 1d
Externalised ISBA – HIRLAM tiled
(Kain-Fritsch – synoptic scale - HIRLAM)
Town model
Advanced cloud physics
Radiation scheme (Morcrette, ECMWF)
Chemical modelling
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HIRLAM strategy and plans
• Maintain and improve HIRLAM physics for
synoptic scales
• Interface HIRLAM physics in ALADIN and
compare in meso-scale and with AROME
• Integrate some as AROME option or mainly
AROME in meso-scale
• Compare synoptic ALADIN with HIRLAM
physics with HIRLAM
• Plan for transfer to ALADIN with HIRLAM
switches
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HIRLAM work with ALADIN in 2005
• Make experiments at 11
and 2.5 km
• Interface HI -ALADIN
coupling-boundaries
• Interface some HI physics
• Implement climate
generation software
• Introduce AROME system
• Experience from AROME
from events -evaluate
some HI physics
• Develop meso-scale
diagnostics
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Synoptic HIRLAM work 2005
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3D-VAR improvements
4D-VAR to be made operational (almost)
More satellite use
Surface analysis SST , ice, SAF products
Turbulence and moist version
Surface scheme, fluxes, snow
Meso-scale / sub-grid scale orography
KF convection, statistical cloud scheme
SL dynamics
Transparent boundary conditions
Verification and diagnostics
CVS
code maintenance
and
unification
-HIRLAM17
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6.3.5 test
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Challenges for meso-scale forecasting
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Meso-scale data and assimilation
Modelling and predictability
Probability / ensemble forecasting
Presentation to users
Verification at high resolution and of
extreme events
• Computational resources
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Summary
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Synoptic system state of the art
Synoptic system needs to be maintained
Meso-scale modelling through collaboration
Synoptic scale should be collaborated on
A number of HIRLAM physics modules
valid in meso-scale or combine the best
• Many challenges in meso-scale – not all in
physics…
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Physics interfaces and options
• All building blocks of physics routines
should be available without restrictions
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ARPEGE/ALADIN
Meso-NH
HIRLAM
ALARO
• Start with low-level routines to adapt for
interface and high level changes to use them
• Iterate and work and clarify the design
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Reference system
• 6.2.2 Feb 2004 -> Reference 6.3 & RCR
– Climate files and corrections
• 6.2.3 22 Mar – climate corrections
• 6.2.4 29 March
– Radiation changes
– Increased mixing in stable conditions
– Much increased roughness length
– parallelisation much improved
• 6.2.5, 6.3.2 – minor corrections + HIRVDA
• 6.3.3 28 June – water vapour saturation mod
• 6.3.4 21 Sep – many physics corr – cleanup FAK
– Mod (reduced) z0 and drag and smoother mixing
– Ritchie-Tanguay T eq. + SL extrap. + techn. Changes, job subm.
• 6.3.5 Nov
– Rotated surface stress and reduced stable mixing
– Phys-Dyn coupling
– Melting of soil ice faster + many technical – climate files
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Envisaged HIRLAM configurations
Year
Synoptic
model
Synoptic
DA
Synoptic
EPS
Meso
model
Meso
DA
2005
HI dyn +
Hi Phy
HI 3DVAR
EC + HI
LAMEPS
Research
AL dyn
Research
HI 3DVAR
Research
AROME
phys
Research
AR/HI
3D-VAR
2006
HI 4DVAR
2007
AL pert +
HI model
2008
AL dyn +
HI phy
2009
AL dyn +
ALARO
phy
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AL
perturb
AROME
phy +
some HI
AL/HI
4D-VAR
Meso
EPS
AL pert +
ALARO
model
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AR 3DVAR Res
4D-VAR
AR
perturb
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• High performance computer resources
– 4 x higher resolution => 4x4x4, but..
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Smaller area(s) ,
More efficient dynamics
- more expensive physics
Linux clusters very promising to reduce costs
Moore’s law 2x / 1.5 years – wait ….
– But EPS ….. More forecasts- lagged average?
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