Transcript FLOOD FORECASTING IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

FLOOD FORECASTING IN THE
Regional Workshop on Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Data Management
REPUBLIC OF11-13
MACEDONIA
May 2009, Dubrovnik, CROATIA
HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING IN
REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Vasko STOJOV ([email protected])
Nikola PETRESKI, Boza KOSTADINOVSKA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE – MACEDONIA
... Since absolute flood protection
is almost impossible,
flood forecasting is the only chance
to avoid catastrophe.
Introduction
• LOCATION
Relief-Map
• Aegean See
• Adriatic See
• Black See
Map of the
main catchments
Climatic conditions
- In the higher regions of the country exist
mountainous climate with various subtypes;
- In the other parts is changing from
continental to variable continental;
- In the river Vardar valley and in the lower
parts of some tributaries exist SubMediterranean climate.
Flood Forecasting Activities
• Collection and processing of
Hydrometeorological data
• Analysing meteorological products;
• Receiving Weather Forecast;
• Analysing hydrological data;
• Water Forecast;
• Hydrological Information and Alarming.
Collection and processing of
Meteorological
Data
Needs of new
automatic stations
especially in the
mountainous regions
Collection and processing of
Hydrological
Data
Needs of new
automatic stations
especially in the
mountainous regions
Analysing meteorological products
• Satellite Maps
-EUMETSAT;
• Internet Maps
-Wetterzentrale;
-Meteo Blue;
• NMM Maps;
-temperature;
-air pressure;
-precipitation;
-wind direction;
-cloud cover
• Forecast Meteograms.
Receiving weather forecast and alarming
Hydrological Analysing
• Hydrological Data;
Flood forecasting of the upper
catchment of the r.Vardar
Hydrological Station
Info Hydrological Station
Rain Gauge Station
Graph-analytical method for
Flood Forecasting
• Estimation of average precipitation for relevant catchments;
ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE RAIN VALUE FOR CATCHMENT OF THE R.VARDAR AT SKOPJE
Rain Gauge Stations
River and
No. Hydrological
Station
1
2
3
4
Rain
Gostivar
Tetovo
Jazinci
Kicevo
M.Brod
Zdunje
Skopje
70
40
70.5
43.5
3.8
10
39
x
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
x6
x7
mm
Vardar
Radusa
0.45
0.41
0.14
-
-
-
-
32
16
10
-
-
-
-
Treska
Zdunje
-
-
-
0.43
0.36
0.21
-
-
-
-
19
1
2
-
Lepenec
Lepenec Vliv
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
70.5
-
-
-
-
0.14
0.14
0.225
0.15
0.12
0.145
0.08
10
6
16
7
0
1
3
58
22
70.5
Vardar Skopje
43
Graph-analytical method
60
800
80
Q (m3/s)
43
700
600
40
500
400
300
20
200
100
0
120
20
120
100
-100
Qo (m3/s)
80
-80
-60
60
-40
40
-20
06.05.05
0 00:00
07.05.05 00:00
08.05.05 00:00
09.05.05 00:00
0
T (days)
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
H (cm)
-160
Graph-analytical method
60
800
80
Q (m3/s)
43
700
600
40
500
400
300
20
200
100
0
120
20
120
100
-100
Qo (m3/s)
80
-80
-60
60
-40
40
-20
06.05.05
0 00:00
07.05.05 00:00
08.05.05 00:00
09.05.05 00:00
0
T (days)
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
H (cm)
-160
Hydrological Information and
Alarming
•
•
•
•
Centre for Crisis;
Centre for informing and alarming;
Relevant Ministries;
Public and Media
What is reality
• With our NMM model, weather forecast
is on very high level;
• METEO ALARM give public information
about bad weather situations; but
• for better water forecast we need
modernization of our hydrological
network, raingauge system and update of
our hydrological forecast model.
Flash Floods is our reality
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Salvador Dali
“Have no fear of perfection
–you’ll never reach it”
Vasko Stojov
“We know we are not perfect,
but also we are not fear to
keep on trying”
Thank you for your attention