Transcript KVANTIFIKACE EXTERNALIT METODOU ExternE

The external costs calculation in CEEC
countries focusing on valuation of
external cost associated with RE
Jan MELICHAR
Charles University Environment Center
NEEDS Forum 3 - Cairo
January 28, 2008
Content

Electricity and heat generation in CEE countries

Focus on combustible renewables in CR

Private and external cost of power plants in CR

Biomass and biogas fuel technologies

Conclusions
Gross electricity generation, by country, by fuel,
2005 (%) – selected CEE countries
TWh
OECD Europe
Bulgaria

44.4
Romania

59.4
Hungary

35.8
Slovak Republic

31.5
Czech Republic

82.6
0%
20%
Fossil fuels
Comb. renew. & waste
Geothermal
40%
60%
80%
100%
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar & wind
Source: OECD and IEA 2007
Gross electricity generation, by country, by fuel, 2005 (%) –
selected SEM countries
TWh
OECD Europe
Tunisia

13.7
Morocco

22.6
Egypt

108.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Fossil fuels
Comb. renew. & waste
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar & wind
100%
Source: OECD and IEA 2007
Gross electricity production from combustible
fuels in the Czech Republic, 2006 (%)
1.3%
0.0%
6.4%
0.3%
10.0%
0.6%
Hard coal
Brown coal
1.6%
Gases
Oil
Natural gas
Wood
Municipal waste
Biogas
79.7%
Source: OECD and IEA 2007
Gross heat production from combustible
fuels in the Czech Republic, 2006 (PJ)
0.3%
1.7%
1.7%
0.1%
18.1%
Hard coal
Brown coal
Gases
27.6%
Oil
Natural gas
Wood
Industrial waste
Municipal waste
Biogas
43.1%
4.2%
3.3%
Source: OECD and IEA 2007
Trends in electricity generation in CR (TWh, %)
Fuel
2005
2010
2020
2030
Coal
49.80
33.53
29.99
28.87
Oil
0.30
1.41
1.93
1.98
Natural gas
4.00
6.99
12.66
12.71
Comb. renew. & waste
0.70
0.92
1.70
2.13
Nuclear
24.70
25.91
25.84
25.86
Hydro
3.00
1.84
1.93
1.91
Solar, wind, other
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.07
Total
82.60
70.59
74.05
73.47
100%
Solar, wind, other
80%
Hydro
60%
Nuclear
Comb. renew. & waste
40%
Gas
Oil
20%
Coal
0%
2005
2010
2020
2030
OECD and IEA 2005
The future importance of combustible
renewables in CR

EC Directive 2001/77 on the support of electricity
from renewables
–

Electricity from renewables should increase twofold
–


from 4,48% in 2005 up to 8 % in 2010
2/3 of electricity production is contributed by
large hydropower station
–

renewable energy should account for 8% (as an indicative
target) of gross electricity consumption by 2010
is strongly dependent on uncertain weather
condition
For solar and wind power are not the best
condition
Biomass is the best suited renewable source
Projected generation costs at 5% discount rate (2005, c€/kWh)
Investment
O&M
Fuel
-6
-4
WI

Nuclear

Coal_1

Coal_2

CHP

Coal_4

Coal_3

Hydro

Gas

CHP

CR

Wind

Solar

-2
0
2
4
6
8
-0.3
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.2
4.3
7.2
7.8
129.2
10
OECD and IEA 2005
Fossil and biomass fuel cycles in CR
I. Electricity generation





Hard, brown, lignite coal fired power
Natural gas fired power plant
Heavy oil fired power plant
Energogas fired power plant
Biofuel fired power plant
II. Heat production




Hard, brown, lignite coal fired power
Natural gas fired power plant
Heavy oil fired power plant
Biomass heating plant
External costs calculation

Using ExternE methodology – one single
energy technology

EcoSense v4.1 software tool

2003 emission and reference technology data

External costs of operation phase is covered

Impact categories: human health, buildings,
crops, climate change

Pollutants: PM10, SO2, NOx, CO2, sulphates,
nitrates, O3
Biogas technologies
Plevnice
agricultural
biogas station
Source of gas
ČOV Cheb
sewage water
treatment plant
biogas
installed capacity
nett electricity supply
thous. m3
MW
MWh/year
567,8
0,24
820
542,5
0,123
700
particulate matters
SO2
NOX
t/year
t/year
t/year
0,003
0,001
0,26
0,014
0,007
0,28
External costs
c€/kWh
0,10
0,15
Biomass heating plants
Bystřice
wood chips, rape
straw
Type of fuel
Fuel consumption
Installed capacity
Heat supply
Stack height
Flue gas temperature
Particulate matters
SO2
NOX
t/year
MW
GJ/year
Trhové Sviny
wood, natural gas
Žlutice
wood chips,
straw
8 761
9
50 866
3 894
11,59
40 240
4 920
7,9
35 013
m
C
50
176
62
140
30
144
t/year
t/year
1,30
0,65
1,91
0,30
2,44
0,88
t/year
1,94
1,25
2,80
External costs from electricity generation in the Czech
Republic (2005, c€/kWh)
Nuclear

0.03
Bio_sew

0.12
Bio_agri

0.12
Natural gas 2

0.88
Energogas

1.05
Natural gas 1

1.94
Hard coal

3.24
CHP

3.75
Brown coal

5.38
Lignite&biomass

6.70
Heavy fuel oil

6.73
Human health
Non-human
Climate
change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
External costs from heat production in 2005 (€/GJ)

0.63
Natural gas 2

0.78
Wood, gas

0.81

1.21
Natural gas 1

1.34
Gas and geoter

1.37
Heavy fuel oil

2.43
Hard coal

2.62
Brown coal

3.07
Lignite

4.38
Wood chips, straw
Wood chips, straw
Human health
Non-human
Climate
change
0
1
2
3
4
5
Conclusions and discussion





Electricity and heat production strongly
depend on fossil fuels in CEE countries
Among renewables biomass energy source
is suitable in CR
High private costs of renewables compare to
fossil fuels and nuclear
Contrary to private costs external are much
lower
Need for more sufficient economic
instruments in order to support energy
production from renewables
Thank you for
your attention
Jan Melichar
[email protected]
Charles University Environment Center Prague
http://cozp.cuni.cz
The research on externality calculation for energy sector was done within the IP
NEEDS „New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability“ and
CASES funded by the European Commission.