Transcript Computer and Society - 2

Computer and Society
-2Present and Future
Impact of Computer and AI
Present and Future
• Ray Kurzweil, “The Impact On ...”,
from the book “The Intelligent
Machines”, 1990.
• We look at what Kurzweil predicted in
1990, what have come to true, and what
is coming to true, what is not yet, and
what may not be forever.
• Our critiques and discussions.
Organization of Slides
• In the order of topics in the article:
employment, education, communication,
warfare, medicine, the handicapped, music,
politics, ourselves.
• For each topic:
– Authors ideas, marked with ‘Kurzweil’,
– My critiques, marked with ‘Critiques’,
– Our discussions, marked with ‘Discussions’.
Topic 1.
Employment and Economy
p. 425-428
Kurzweil
Employment - revisit
• Few areas generate as much controversy as
computer’s influence on employment.
• This issue is rarely approached
dispassionately.
• The reality of lost jobs is easier to see than
the possibility of new jobs created.
Kurzweil
IEA Study
• IEA study – A comprehensive study of the
trends of US economy at Institute for
Economic Analysis (IEA)
Kurzweil
What IEA Study Said (1)
• Avg. earning power of workers was to
increase;
• A rapidly diminishing demand for
clerical workers and unskilled workers;
• A sharp increase in needs for
professionals, computer specialists,
and teachers.
Kurzweil
What IEA Study Said (2)
• The primary variable for continued
growth was education and training.
• Power and wealth will increasingly
consist of knowledge and skill.
Critiques
IEA Study was Done in 1990
• IEA study was a comprehensive study
using a detailed computer model of
economy.
• Quality of such study depends on
model, factors considered, and data.
• I doubt some factors such as
outsourcing, rise of Chinese economy
were taken into account.
Kurzweil
Factory Dwindling
• Factories now employ substantially fewer
workers than before, due to automation and
computerization.
• Computerized manufacturing enables more
customization of products.
• Before 1st industrial revolution, products
were ‘customized’. With 1st industrial
revolution, products became ‘standardized’.
Now, products are coming back to
‘customized’.
Kurzweil
Who is to do What
• In 21st century, computers and humans are
going to share the jobs in offices:
• For computers:
– Type our letters and reports, maintain our files
and records, help organize our work.
• For human:
– Communication, teaching, learning, selling ,
strategic-decision making, and innovation.
Kurzweil
Change of Concept of
Documents
• Documents on paper are to diminish, which
will be replaced by multimedia documents.
• Documents include linkages to underlying
knowledge and related information.
• Documents are organized in a way that each
part can be directly accessed.
Critiques
Are Multimedia Books Better?
• It looks to be a dream of the author that the
future documents are composed of text,
pictures, voice, music, ... (p.428)
• Is a multimedia book inherently better than
a book of plain text?
• Is a movie version of a novel, by it nature,
better than the novel itself?
Kurzweil
Learning as Part of Work
• The primary skill required for future
workers will be ability to adapt.
• A typical worker of this century will make a
major or a career change once or twice each
decade.
• Learning as part of work, as some
enlightened companies have started doing.
Discussion
Knowledge and Learning
Capability
• To adapt to the dynamic technology:
Higher institutions should provide not only
knowledge but also tools of problem solving, and
ways of thinking.
Students in colleges should enrich their
knowledge as well as their ability of learning.
• Meat or hunting rifle.
• Fish or fishnet.
Discussion
Are we really afraid of ‘losing
jobs’?
• We share a dread: - losing jobs, or
unemployed.
• We love working, don’t we?
• No one has dreamed of working in the
Heaven.
• We never worry about ‘unemployment’ in
Heaven, since ...
we never expect to work in Heaven!
Discussion
Becoming Philosophers or
Indulging in Making Love
• The two quotes on page 425.
If machines could be so improved and multiplied, then all of our corporeal necessities
could be entirely gratified, without the intervention of human labor, there will be
nothing to hinder all mankind from becoming philosophers and poets.
- Timothy Walker, 1831
Machinery will perform all work – automata will direct all activities and the only tasks
of the human race will be to make love, study and be happy.
- The United State Review, 1853
• Would we be more likely, by our nature,
becoming philosophers or indulging in
making love if we were truly worry-free?
Topic 2. Education
p. 429 - 432
Kurzweil
Education in Computer
Revolution
• Education plays a pivotal role in
shaping the future economy, as in
Topic 1.
• But we have seen fewer changes in
schools than in factories, in terms of
content and process, in this computing
age.
Kurzweil
Eight Predictions in 1990 (1)
• Computers are ubiquitous as pencils to
students;
• Students’ computers are portable laptops;
• Very high resolution screen as readable as a
book;
• Of a variety of input devices;
Kurzweil
Eight Predictions in 1990 (2)
• Of high quality two-way voice
communication and natural language
understanding;
• Very easy to use;
• Interactive intelligent and entertaining
courseware;
• Wireless connection to network.
Kurzweil
Intelligent Courseware
• It identifies the model that a student is using
or the student’s weakness;
• It develops strategy to upgrade the student’s
model;
• It provides entertaining and engaging
experiences to carry out the remedial
strategy.
Kurzweil
Using Computer Network
• Allow easy sharing of courseware,
submissions by students of papers and
exams, e-mails, ...
• Have access to libraries of the world, books, magazines, databases;
• Using intelligent software assistants to help
find information. (search engines as we call them now)
Kurzweil
Envision Teaching after 2050
• A homework might be to participate in the
Constitutional Convention of 1787 and debate the
founding fathers.
• Another homework might be to negotiate the final
language on behalf of the executive branch to get
a better deal for the presidency on war powers.
• Your submission would be the actual debates that
you participated in, and your teacher would grade
them on watching them.
Critiques
How Much Could Intelligent
Machine Help Education? (1)
• Kurzweil’s vision of ‘on-line’, vivid, twoway multimedia teaching in future is
interesting, and will help study.
• Could it help in all subjects?
• In the subjects it helps, how much it might
help?
Critiques
How Much Could Intelligent
Machine Help Education? (2)
• Kursweil’s vision of future seems not quite
helpful in learning algebra, calculus,
quantitative decision making, ...
• On subject of history, his vision seems
helps most. But do you think students’
knowledge of history is now better with
helps of TV, movie, and computer, than that
100 years ago when learnt purely from
books?
Discussion
On-Line Course
• In 1990, on-line course was not born yet.
• Advantages:
• Disadvantages:
• What courses might be most suitable to be
taught on-line?
Discussion
On-Line Course to Prevail?
• Not all courses could be effectively taught
on-line.
• More on-line classes will be seen.
• Whether a college to put a class on-line is
based on multiple considerations, other than
most effective teaching.
• Whether a student to take a on-line class is
based on multiple considerations, other than
most effective learning.
Discussion
What Is a College Like in
Future?
• Who is teaching – human professors or
intelligent machines?
• Do students have to go to ‘school’?
– Are all courses on-line?
– Is a physical college necessary?
• If all courses were on-line and taught by
machines, then what would be difference
between colleges? - No more colleges and
universities?
Topic 3. Communication
p. 432 - 434
Kurzweil
Functions of Communication
• A mental need of a human is
communication, which grants its
physiological and psychological function.
• The social function of communication is
sharing knowledge and carrying knowledge
on.
Kurzweil
Computers and Network
Kurzweil’s expectation for 2010:
• Computers and computer networks are
gateways for communication. (Internet)
• Intelligent software to help access and
search information. (search engines)
• Standardized software on each end of a
communication channel. (MS Explorer, Netscape,
HTML language)
Critiques
‘Where to find knowledge’
• Kurzweil’s expectation for 2010 in 1990
has largely come true.
• For ‘where to find knowledge’, we have
search engines like Yahoos!, Google,
AltaVista.
• More intelligent guider has appeared, - “I
know what knowledge you want. Come
with me.”
Kurzweil
Paper as a Medium
• Paper will still be a medium in
communication of man-man or manmachine.
• Electronic documents has not caused
reduction of paper use. US has used 2,500
billion pages in 1986, while only 850 billion
pages in 1981. That is because ...
... increase of productivity of producing
paper documents.
Kurzweil
Videophone
• We have almost accomplished it.
• Need to improve:
– Image quality;
– Video, not only pictures;
– Popularization.
Kurzweil
Robotic Person Imitator (RPI)
• It is a robotic substitute of a human, with
same look and feel.
• It acts and moves exactly the same way as
the real person thousands miles away.
• So, meeting a person does not have to be a
‘personal’ meeting. It could be a ‘personimitator’ or ‘imitator-imitator’ meeting.
Critiques
RPI, Realistic?
• It is can described as a lifelike sensor and
actuator being remotely controlled.
• It is not an independent robot that acts on its
own ‘will’.
• One person can technically have many
‘imitators’. So, ...
• Laws on murdering, raping, robbery,
harassment, privacy, ..., must be updated
with RPI.
Kurzweil
Nature of Cities
• What was initial purpose of a city?
– Facilitating manufacturing and transportation.
• What is purpose of a city after highways
and railways have made it unnecessary to
live in the manufacturing / transportation
center?
– Communication.
• When we can communicate and ‘meet’
anyone without leaving home, the need for
a city diminishes.
Critiques
Humans Need City
• Functions of a city that failed to mention by
Kurzweil:
– Social, entertainment, businesses, politics /
government.
• Do humans by their nature tend to live close
by or alone?
• Does a human feel comfortable staying
home year by year, talking to outside with
phones and e-mails, and sending his
imitator to meet friends and attend socials
who are likely also imitators?
Critiques
Gratification of Information
Will Level off
• The feel of gratification for the amount of
available information will level off when
the amount of information available reaches
certain digestible point.
• Similar rules occur on air, water, food,
clothes, ...
• “The more information available, the
better.” – Is it true?
Topic 4. Warfare
p. 434 - 438
Kurzweil
Smart Weapon
• A primary thrust of computing on warfare is
smart weapon.
• Auto-piloting and pattern-recognition have
resulted in accurate destruction of targets
without damage to neighboring civilian
population and facilities.
Kurzweil
Defense Strategy with Smart
Weapon
• Smart weapon can be used tactically to
won a war, and strategically to deter
the enemy.
• First line of defense:
– Conventional weapons with intelligence.
• Second line of defense:
– Nuclear weapons.
Kurzweil
Combat in Future
• Between smart flying weapons, missiles,
robot planes, and flying munitions, that can
be launched from virtually any place on
earth or from space; as well as laser
weapons and particle beam weapons.
• Cornerstones of combats:
– Command, Control, Communication
Kurzweil
Geography Factor Fades Out
• Geography is losing its strategic
importance. Slow moving vehicles as
tanks and ships, and battle stations, no
matter land-, sea-, air-, or space- based,
will be vulnerable.
Critiques
War Is not a Video Game
• Kurzweil’s vision of future war is like a
video game.
• A war will be bloody and dirty, and never
be as clean as a video game.
– death, misery, cruelty, brutality, barbarity will
be the reality.
• In addition to smart weapons, there are
WMDs: nuclear weapons, chemical and
bio-chemical weapons, ...
Critiques
Rule of Minimum Morality
• In a game or conflict without rules and
referees, the rule of minimum morality
prevails:
– The cleanness of the game is determined
by the dirtier side.
• Prisoner’s dilemma -
Kurzweil
War in Future
• If human reflexes and eventually
human decision making, at least on a
tactical level, are replaced with
machine intelligence, then two
societies could let their machine fight
out the conflict in some remote place
and let them know who wins.
Critiques
Abolition of War, - By What?
• It is not computing technology that will
change human’s brute war to a video
or sport game.
• It is human’s civilization, fraternity,
equality, and respect for value of life
that will eventually bury the war
forever.
Topic 5. Medicine
p. 438 - 441
Kurzweil
Predictions for Early 21st
Century (1)
• Blood tests will be analyzed by cybernetic
technicians;
• Electrocardiograms will be analyzed
entirely by computer;
• Diagnosis will be reliant on all kinds of
non-invasive imaging, such as sonic and
particle-resonance;
Kurzweil
Predictions for Early 21st
Century (2)
• National data bank of patients;
• Expert systems will influence all diagnostic
and treatment decisions;
• Computers are widely used in new medicine
design and development;
• Heart disease and cancer are likely to be
conquered.
Kurzweil
Smart Drug
• This drug will be actual living cells with a
measure of intelligence, which will be smart
enough
– to identify an enemy pathogen and destroy or
pacify it;
– to self-destruct after completing the mission.
Kurzweil
What Doctors Do Then?
With machines playing crucial role in routine
medical activities, doctors will do:
• Research and organizing of medical
knowledge to enrich expert systems;
• Strategic medical decision making;
• Reviewing diagnostic recommendations in
complicated cases.
Critiques
Doctors without Experience?
• If doctors do not have practice and
experience on diagnosis and treatment,
how could they come up with new
knowledge to enrich the expert
systems?
• Medicine is a subject that needs
practice and experience. Medicine is
not pure math.
Topic 6. The Handicapped
p. 441 - 443
Kurzweil
How Will Computing Help the
Handicapped
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reading machine for the blind,
Navigational aids for the blind,
Seeing machine for the blind,
Speech-to-text aids for the deaf,
Hearing machine for the deaf,
Artificial limbs with intelligence for the
paraplegics and quadriplegics.
Topic 7. Music
p. 443 - 444
Kurzweil
How Will Computing Change
Music
• New instruments;
• New sounds without direct acoustic and
instrumental counterpart.
• Composing: - sequencer to get the
performance effect and music notations at
same time.
• Live music performance;
• Composition assistant software: -
Discussion
Computing Makes Music
Popular
• Computer has made art and music
appeal for both the more and the less
cultured.
• Ordinary people can be artists and
musicians.
• Art and music no longer belong to
those people with leisure.
Discussion
Computing Changes
Entertainment
• Music used to be played in churches,
royal palaces, and theatres of upper
class.
• Composers and music players were
few elites in society.
• There were no concert with thousands
of audience.
Topic 8. Politics
p. 445 - 447
Kurzweil
Cornerstones of Power
• Used to be:
– Land, Geography, Natural resources,
Labor.
• They are shifting to:
– Technology, Human intellectual
resources.
Kurzweil
Tech Replaces Natural Resource
for Cornerstone of Power
• “The cornerstones of power during the 1st
industrial revolution – Geography, natural
resources, and manual labor – are rapidly
diminishing in importance and relevance.” – p.445
• “We can only conclude that the strategic variables
controlling our future are becoming technology
and, in particular, the human intellectual resources
to advance technology.” – p.446
Critiques
Scarce Natural Resources Will
Remain Scarce
• Although computer does not need
scarce natural resources, people in the
computer age need them.
– Oil, natural gas, iron/steel, food, ...
• The resources are more scarce since
people are getting richer due to
computing technology, and the richers
need more.
Critiques
Land and Labor Still Matter
• Labors will be needed as before, albeit
the type of labors is changing from blue
collar workers to white collar
professionals.
• Land, which carries scarce resources,
needed professionals, and
infrastructures, will remain a cornerstone
of power.
Critiques
Technology Adds to
Cornerstones
• Technology just adds to the
traditional cornerstones of power,
rather than replace them.
Kurzweil
Computing Would Imperil
Controlled Society
• Creativity and innovation cannot be
forced.
• Unstoppable computer networks
provide a platform for free speech,
promote free communication, and
encourage the open society.
• Controlled societies are at stake.
Kurzweil
Computing May Help
Totalitarian Government
• Computers play today an indispensable
role in legitimate law enforcement. A
dictator can use it equally.
• Computer technology can help build an
efficient and effective totalitarian
control.
Critiques
Creativity Is Not Forced  No
Creativity in a Forced Society
• “It is a fortunate truth of human nature that
creativity and innovation cannot be forced.”
• Be alert not to be misled by the above
statement that there is not creativity in
a highly controlled society.
– Germany in WWII, Soviet Union, China
Critiques
How It Influences Society
Depends on Who Controls It
• The last paragraph of this topic on p.447:
Computer technology may lead to a flowering of individual expression,
creativity, and communication or to an era of efficient and effective totalitarian
control. It will all depend on who controls the technology. A hopeful note is
that the nature of wealth and power in the age of intelligent machines will
encourage the open society. Oppressive societies will find it hard to provide
the economic incentives needed to pay for computers and their development.
• It is true that it depends on who controls the
technology.
• Oppressive government will have political
incentive for computer development at any cost!
Critiques
Computing Is Not Omnipotent
• Although computing by its nature
encourages an open society, its effects on
ending totalitarianism should not be
exaggerated.
• Computing is just a tool.
• Computing is not an omnipotent drug to get
freedom and democracy prevailing.
• The first quote on p.445 is arrogantly
optimistic about computing.
Topic 9.
Our Concept of Ourselves
p. 447 - 449
Kurzweil
Intelligent Computers Are
Beginning to Accomplish
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Musical performances;
Teaching some skills and knowledge;
Diagnosing and remedial treatment;
Designing drugs;
Performing medical operations;
Locating underground resources;
Flying planes.
Kurzweil
More Difficult Tasks
• Reading books;
• Understanding the contents of a
book;
• Passing the Turing test.
Kurzweil
Most Difficult Tasks
• Watch a moving scene and
understand what is going on;
• Imitating humans’ subtlety;
• Pass the Turing test with face-toface communication.
Kurzweil
Human vs. Machine Intelligence
Human
Machine
Slow
Fast
Large
Larger
Dubious
Accurate and Reliable
Good
Poor
Improved in past 50
years?
No
Yes, dramatically
Will improve in next
50 years?
Not likely.
Very likely and
dramatically
Computing speed
Size of memory
Reliability of memory
Capability of thinking
Kurzweil
Are We Unique?
• We may not be the smartest species in
the universe forever, simply because
we can create a ‘species’ that is
smarter than us.
• Maybe we will fail and go back to
appreciate the inherent value of being
unique human.