Transcript nautilus.org

Update on the RFE Energy
Sector and the RFE LEAP
Modelling Effort
Olga DEMINA, Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY
Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia
2010 East Asian Science and Security Project Meeting
“Energy Futures and Energy/Minerals Cooperation in the Northeast Asia
Region”
September 22-24, 2010, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
1
Outline
1. RFE’s Energy Sector: Current Status, Energy Demand & Supply
Trends
2. Recent National and Regional Energy Policy Initiatives and
Priorities
3. Large-Scale Energy Projects in the Far East of Russia
4. Russia and Far East Nuclear Power Sector
5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities
2
1. RFE’s Current Status, Energy
Demand & Supply Trends
3
National Energy Sector:
main trends in between the two crisis periods
• Energy sector share in the russian economy (2008): about 25%
of GDP, more than 48% of total taxes, more than 68% in total export
income and 28% in total investments.
• GDP Energy intensity decline (2000-2008): total GDP growth
65%, extraction and production of energy resources growth - 26%,
energy intensity of GDP - 66,9%.
• Positive production growth rates (2000-2008 ): increase in
production of major energy resources – coal by 68 mln ton
(26,4%), oil by 164 mln ton (50,6%), natural gas by 80 bln cubic m
(13,7%).
• Strengthening of external incentives for development (20002008): Domestic consumption of energy grew 10%, energy
exports volume 1,5 times (from 545,4 mln tce to 813 mln tce).
4
Energy sector of Russian Far East.
Characteristics of Energy and Fuel Supply Macro-structure
• Energy consumption is relatively small by size and spread over
large territory;
• Increased transaction costs for production and supply of energy;
• Independent supply and consumption within many local territories;
• Lack of developed transit and distribution infrastructure;
• Energy consumption structure is relatively diversified but primarily
based on coal;
• Limited choice opportunities for energy consumers;
• Prefferability of monopoly structures in the supply sector.
5
Far East energy sector.
Major energy production centers
• Sakha republic (Yakutia) (bituminous coal, natural gas)
• Sakhalin region (oil, natural gas)
• Amursky region (hydro energy)
6
Far East Energy Sector.
Major export commodities
•
•
•
•
Coking coal and steam coal of South Yakutia
Sakhalin oil
Oil products of Khabarovsky region refinery plants
Amur region electricity supplies to border regions of
China.
7
Energy Supply in the Russian Far East:
Current Trends
Energy
Production*
2005
2006
2007
2008
Volumes as of
2008
Electricity
101.2
100.8
98.5
102.9
41.7 trillion kWh
Heat
98.1
101.7
100.2
97.3
67.8 mln Gcal
Crude Oil,
including
Condensate
111.5
147.8
231.7
89.4
Natural Gas
97.9
109.0
208.8
121.0
9.8 bln cubic m
Coal
102.6
99.1
99.6
100.9
32.3 mln tones
Oil Refining
115.8
101.3
106.2
102.8
11.3 mln tones
13.6 mln tones
* % to previous year
8
Major energy resources extraction dynamics in the Far East
2000-2008
Coal, th. t
Oil, th. T
Gas, mln CM
Coal, th. t,Coal,
2005,th. t,Coal,
2006,
th. t,Coal,
2007,th. t, 2008,
Coal, th. t, 2004,
Coal, th. t, 2003,
32,699 32,199 32,032 32,284
31,757
30,625
Coal, th. t, 2000,
28,352
Oil, th. T, 2007,
15,231Oil, th. T, 2008,
13,627
Gas, mln CM,
Gas, mln CM,
2008, 9,753
Oil, th. T, 2006,
2007, 8,055
Oil, th. T, 2005,6,539
Oil, th. T, 2004,
Oil, th. T, 2000,
Oil, th. T, 2003,
4,351
3,902
3,707
3,573 Gas,
Gas, mln Gas,
CM, mln CM, mln CM,
Gas, mln CM,
Gas, mln CM,
2004, 3,572
2003, 3,629
2000, 3,496
2006, 3,866
2005, 3,512
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Structure of installed capacity
Russia vs Russian Far East
Type
RUSSIA
FAR EAST
mln kWt
%
mln kWt
%
Coal TPP
62032
27.5
6763
46.6
Gas TPP
89946
40
1284
8.8
Oil TPP
3102
1.38
1312
9
Nuclear PP
23304
10.3
48
0.3
Hydro PP + RE
47156
21
5115
35
TOTAL
225541
14522
10
Final Energy Consumption structure by type of energy
2000 vs 2008
Coal, 2008, 4.69%
Oil products, 2008,
43.84%
Natural gas,
Electricity,
2008, 2008,
3.58% 14.63%
Oil products, 2000,
Natural gas,Electricity,
2000,
2000,
Coal, 2000, 5.74%
30.64%
4.44%
16.65%
Coal
Crude Oil
Oil products
Hydry & RE
Heat, 2008, 33.33%
Heat, 2000, 41.78%
Other hard fuels
Electricity
Heat
11
Power Plant Fuel Consumption structure by type of fuel in 2002,
2007—2008.
Russia
Far East
2008, Coal,
26%
2007, Coal,
24%
2002, Coal,
26%
2008, Coal,
69%
2007, Coal,
70%
2002, Coal,
74%
2008, Fuel Oil,
2%
2007, Fuel Oil,
2%
2002, Fuel Oil,
5%
2008, Fuel
Oil, 9%
2007, Fuel
Oil, 10%
2002, Fuel
Oil, 11%
2008, Natural
Gas, 69%
2007, Natural
Gas, 71%
2002, Natural
Gas, 67%
2008, Other,
3%
2007, Other,
3%
2002, Other,
2%
2008, Natural
Gas, 22%
2007, Natural
Gas, 20%
2002, Natural
Gas, 15%
2008, Other,
0%
2007, Other,
0%
2002, Other,
0%
2008
2007
2002
2008
2007
2002
12
Emissons of pollutants into atmosphere as result of fuel based
power and heat production
2008 (thousand ton)
Total
emission
Pollutants
Hard
Sulphur
particles dioxide
CO2
Nitrogen Сarbohy
oxides
drates
Russia
5763,6
1615,3
1663,3
1233,1
1221,2
30,7
Far East
724,9
246,7
171,3
206,5
92,9
7,5
Share of Far
East in Russia,
%
7,95
15,2
10,2
16,7
7,6
24,4
13
Positive trends in the development of Far East Energy Sector
(2004-2008)
• New electricity generating capacity added: Bureyskaya HPP, 4th
unit of Khabarovsk CHP-3, Mobile gas turbine plant at Vladivostok
CHP-2. A network of transmission lines 500 kW.
• Settled structure of strategic companies-operators and
baseline terms for operation of the basic regional fuel and
energy markets.
• GDP growth does not lead to high demand of energy. The
balance of energy output and capacity in the Eastern United Power
Grid and local energy systems is satisfactory.
• Improved balance of supply and demand of boiler and furnace
fuels
14
Strategic Problems
• Technological and economical isolation of Far East energy
systems from the national energy and capacity markets is
unchanged. Mechanisms of strategic control over energy sector are
at the stage of development.
• Deterioration (wearoff) of energy equipment and facilities (about
70% of equipment is physically and technologically old).
• Unstable operation of community energy services
• Isolated energy supply in northern regions of Far East, caused
by geographic and economic conditions, lowers the economic
efficiency and technological stability of energy supply.
• Lack of deep consideration of regional development problems
during the implementation of large-scale projects, with regard to
the pacific direction of energy resources export .
15
Economic crisis impact on FE energy sector
• Electricity consumption decline in Russia – by 4.7%, in Far East – by
1.65% and dynamics was mixed, depending on the region.
Recovery since late 2009.
• Production of major energy resources in 2008 compared to 2007:
oil – reduced by 11%, gas – increased by 21%, coal – up by 4%.
16
2. Recent National and Regional Energy
Policy Initiatives and Priorities
17
The system of official strategic and program documents
1.General social & economic development strategies and programs
in the Far East
Strategy for economic & social development of the Far East and
Baikal region up to 2025 – approved December, 2009
Federal Program for Social and Economic Development of the
Far East and Trans-Baikal area up to 2013 (underway since 2008)
OTHER:
– Scheme of the complex development of productive forces, transport and
energy of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) until 2020 (approved 2007)
18
The system of official strategic and program documents
2. Energy related development strategies and programs
NATIONAL LEVEL
ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030 (APPROVED NOVEMBER 13, 2009)
General scheme of
the gas industry
development until
2030
(under
development)
General scheme
of electric power
industry
installations until
2020
(approved!)
General scheme
of development
of the oil
industry 2020
(under
development)
National Energy
Efficiency
Program
(waiting
approval)
Strategy for
development of
nuclear power
industry of
Russia until
2007-2015
(approved 2007)
REGIONAL LEVEL involving FAR EAST
Eastern Gas Program
Program of creation of the unified
system of gas production, transport
and gas supply in East Siberia and
the Far East with potential gas
export to the markets of China and
other APR countries
(approved 2007)
Program of long-term
development of Far East
energy sector until 2020
(under development)
Strategy for development of electric
power industry in the Far East
until 2020-2025
(not yet approved)
Corporate Strategies and Programs
19
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY PRIORITIES
MAIN DOCUMENT: ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030
ONE OF MAJOR PRIORITIES: “Eastern orientation”
1) Diversify energy export destinations and commodity structure 
•
•
•
Oil export share to APR will rise from 8 to 15% by 2022
Gas export share – from 0% to 16%
New Oil and Gas processing in the Far East (Yakutia, Primorsky region, Sakhalin)
2) International cooperation and strengthening positions of national
companies abroad
•
•
Joint exploration, extraction, processing and distribution: ROSNEFT, LUKOIL, GAZPROM
& CNPC, SINOPEC, KOGAS, KNOC, etc.
Asset swapping approach (?)
3) Energy efficiency
•
Decrease GDP energy intensity by 40% in 2007-2020
4) Increase the share of renewable energy (in the total electricity
production from 0.5% to 4.5% by 2030)
5) Switching to export of final energy products rather than raw
20
ENERGY EFFICIENCY as a national priority
MAIN DOCUMENT: FEDERAL LAW ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY
(NOV 23, 2009)
NATIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAM UNTIL 2020
(not yet approved)
REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS in regions of FAR EAST are
under development!
SUPPLY SIDE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS
COAL PP 34  38%
GAS PP 38  50%
NUCLEAR PP 32  34%
Decrease overall tce/kWth 335  300 g
COAL GASIFICATION technology
More gas turbines with 51-57% efficiency
Decrease Electricity Transmission Loss 13  10%
21
Energy
Energy
EnergyEnergy
Saving Potential
- 420 million tce
Energy
Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency
ENERGY Efficiency
SECTOR
Potential, Potential, Potential,
Potential,
CONSTRUCTFEDERAL AGRICULTU
HOUSEHOLDS
ENERGY
ION & PROPERTY,RE SECTOR,
SECTOR,
SERVICES,
INDUSTRY
Energy 5.0%, 5% 3.5%, 4%
36.0%, 37%
9.0%,
9%
Efficiency
TRANSPORT
Potential,
TRANSPORT,
CONSTRUCTION &
13.0%, 13%
EnergySERVICES
FEDERAL PROPERTY
Energy
Efficiency
Potential,
Efficiency
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
HOUSEHOL
Potential,
INDUSTRY,
DS, 18.0%,
14.0%, 14%
18%
22
GDP energy intensity, toe/$1000
Target: decrease by 40% in 2008-2020
23
Far East Energy Demand: prospective changes
Expected new large-scale projects
Amur region
•National space port
•Ore Mining and Smelting Plant
•Oil Refinery
•Aluminium plant
•Olekmin hydrometallurgical processing plant
•ESPO expansion (including branch to China)
•Kuranah iron ore deposit
•Cement plant
Jewish Autonomous region
•Kimkan-Sutar iron ore deposit
•Bridge over Amur river
•Timber processing facilities
Magadan region
•Natalka,Degdekan, Pavlik, Igumen deposits
•Yano-Kolim gold mining area
•Several mining facilities
Primorsky region
•Russkiy island projects
•Oil refinery (Nakhodka city area)
•ESPO - 2nd part
•Kozmino oil port facilities
Yakutia
•Oil and Gas deposits (Talakan, Chayanda)
•Elga coal deposit
•Elkon Uranium deposit
•Kuranah and other iron ore deposits
Khabarovsky region
•Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk oil refinery expansion
•Oil processing facilities
•Coal enrichment plant
•Ore enrichment facilities
•Cellulose plant
Sakhalin island
•Cement plant
•Metal processing facilities
•Oil and Gas Processing facilities
24
RFE Energy Cooperation with China
OIL
ROSNEFT-CNPC 48.4 mln t contract for 2006-2011
+LUKOIL-SINOPEC 3mln t contract for 2009-10
+export of oil products: fuel oil
2011-2031 ROSNEFT-CNPC 15 mln t/y (may be increased to 30 mln t/y)
Transported by ESPO pipeline via branch “Skovorodino-China”
GAS
Price negotiations to finish in 2010-2011
Possible start of export via “eastern” route – by 2015
Via “western” route– by 2018
Source - Yakutia gas deposit
COAL
2008 – 0.76 mln ton exported, 2009 – 12 mln ton exported
May increase after 2013 due to ELGA coal project (up to 27 mln t/y)
Main supplier – MECHEL
ELEC2009 – 0.8 bln kWth exported
TRICITY 2010 forecast – 1 bln kWth
From 2013– 4-5 billion, By 2020 – up to 60 billion kWth
OTHER
13 mln t Joint Refinery in Tianjin, China + 500 petrol stations ($5 bln)
10 mln t Joint Refinery in Primorsky region, Russia – UNDECIDED
JOINT EXPLORATION: Veninsky block (ROSNEFT+SINOPEC)
RFE Energy Cooperation with Japan
OIL
Exported from Sakhalin-1 since 2006 and Sakhalin-2 since 1999
Total export in 2009 – 5.3 mln t
Since 2010: start of export from ESPO pipeline
GAS
Since 2009 - Sakhalin-2 (LNG) long-term contract for about 6 mln ton/y
COAL
In 2009 - about 2mln ton exported
Possible expansion after 2013 (ELGA coal deposit)
ELECNA
TRICITY
OTHER
Joint exploration
LPG
WIND PP (Russky island)
26
RFE Energy Cooperation with ROK
OIL
From Sakhalin-2 since 1999, From Sakhalin-1 since 2006
Possibly ESPO and/or oil products after 2014
GAS
In 2009 – 0.6 mln ton LNG, Since 2010 – 1.5 mln ton/y LNG
Source: Sakhalin-2
Prospective: Vladivostok-South Korea gas pipeline - since 2014 up to 10 BCM
COAL
Since 1996 small volumes from EREL deposit
Since 2010 – 5 year contract 0,3 mln ton/y
Since 2010 – 5 year contract 1,3 mln ton (HYNDAY+POSCO)
Possible expansion after 2013 with ELGA coal deposit
ELECPrimorsky region-Korean Peninsula power exports project – JSC “INTER RAO
TRICITY UES” + KEPCO
*stopped since 2009 due to DPRK issues
OTHER
Joint exploration of West Kamchatka Shelf
Joint development of South Yakutia coal mines (Kolmar – LG)
27
3. Major Large-Scale Energy Projects in
the East of Russia
1. Sakhalin projects
2. ESPO pipeline
- Taishet-Skovorodino (stage 1) – complete!
- Skovorodino-Kozmino (stage 2) – under construction
- Skovorodino-China border – complete!
3. Eastern Gas Program  in the Far East - 2 major gas pipelines
• Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok
• Yakutia – Khabarovsk
• Vladivostok-Korean Peninsula – ???
4. Gas processing, gas liquidation and chemical processing facilities (Yakutia,
Primorye)
5. “Elga” large coal deposit (Yakutia)
6. Electricity exports to China
28
Sakhalin-1
• Deposits: Chaivo, Odoptu, Arkutun-Dagi (oil - 300 mln tons, gas –
485 bln cub m)
• Participants: ExxonMobil (30 %), ROSNEFT, ONGC (20 %), SODECO
(30 %)
• Chaivo oil and gas production started in October 2005; oil exports –
since October 2006
• Since 2007 – oil production at full capacity
• Currently: Oil exported to Japan, South Korea; Gas supplied to
Khabarovsky region
• 2009: total produced oil 8,2 mln ton, gas 9,4 bln cub m;
Target for 2010 – 7,5 mln ton
• Expectations: Odoptu start of oil production – end of 2010 (up to
1.5 mln t/y); Arkutun-Dagi – since 2014.
29
Sakhalin-2
• Deposits: Piltun-Astohsky and Lunsky oil & gas fields (oil - 176 mln
tons, gas - 618 BCM)
• Shareholders: Gasprom (50%+1), Royal Dutch Shell (27.5% minus
1), Mitsui (12.5%), Mitsubishi (10%)
• Since December 2008 - oil extraction is year-round; for 2010 target
~7 mln ton
• Feb 2009 – first LNG production line was launched, May 2009 –
second line was launched, current LNG capacity 9,6 mln t/y
• Since March 2009 – LNG is exported (long-term contracts ~25 years)
mainly to Japan (~60%), ROK, but also to China, India, Kuwait,
Taiwan
• 3rd production line or 2nd LNG plant are under consideration
30
Other Sakhalin offshore
• Sakhalin-3
– Veninsky block - currently: exploration (ROSNEFT + SINOPEC) - 165 mln t and 313 BCM
– Kirinsky gas deposit – geological exploration by Gazprom, start of gas production in 2011
• Sakhalin-4 (West-Shmidtovsky block)
– In March 2009 ROSNEFT & BP returned license after unsuccessful drilling - deposits not
discovered yet
• Sakhalin-5 (Kaigano-vasyukansky & East-Shmidtovsky)
– East-Shmidtovsky: In 2009 after conducting geological analysis ROSNEFT & BP returned
license without drilling – deposits not discovered yet
– Kaigano-vasyukansky: geological exploration (ROSNEFT & BP) – 56 mln ton of oil and 30
BCM of gas discovered so far – not enough for commercial extraction
• Sakhalin-6 (Pogranichny block)
• Western shelf of Kamchatka peninsula (ROSNEFT & KNOC)
• In 2009 licenses for exploration granted to Gazprom – Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky,
Ayashsky, West-Odoptinsky blocks)
31
Far East Offshore Oil & Gas Projects
Magadanskaya Oblast’
Sea of Okhotsk
SAKHALIN-5
VostochnoShmidtovskiy
SAKHALIN-4
ZapadnoShmidtovskiy
SAKHALIN-5
KaiganskoVasyukanskiy
Odoptu
VostochnoOdoptinskiy
ArkutunDagi
Ayashskiy
Chaivo
Veninskiy
SAKHALIN-2
Хабаровский
крайPil’tun-
Kirinskiy
Astokhskoe
Lunskoe
SAKHALIN-6
- Page 32
SAKHALIN-3
SAKHALIN-1
Western
Kamchatka place
Kamchatskaya
Oblast’
Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline
(ESPO)
•
•
•
•
1st STAGE – completed in 2009
Route: Taishet (Irkutsky region) – Skovorodino (Amursky region)
Capacity is 30 mln ton/y
Current operating capacity – 15 mln ton/y
Currently transported to Kozmino by RAIL for export to Japan, Korea.
•
•
•
2nd STAGE – will be completed by 2014 (till then – by RAIL)
Route: Skovorodino (Amursky region) – Kozmino Oil Port (Primorsky krai) – 2100km
Overall ESPO capacity is 30 mln t/y, possibly up to 50
Expansion of Kozmino Oil Port
•
•
•
•
Branch to China
In 2009 oil export contract signed for 15 mln /t for 20 years since 2011
Skovorodino-China Border - complete in August 2010
Daqing (China) -China Border – will complete in October 2010
Start of operation – November 2010
33
Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Pipeline
34
Eastern Gas Program
Creation of integrated system for producing and transporting gas in East Siberia and
Russia's Far East with the possibility of exporting gas to China and other Asia-Pacific
countries

Underway since September 2007

4 centers of gas extraction: Northern Sakhalin, South-Western Yakutia, Irkutsk
area and Krasnoyarsk area

In the Far East - 2 major pipelines

Gasification of Far East territory (local gas pipeline networks)

Gas Liquidation and Processing Centers (Yakutia, Sakhalin, Primorsky region)

Large expansion of gas exports eastwards
35
Eastern Gas Program (underway since 2007)
Ultimately - export of ~50 BCM of natural gas to China and Republic of Korea
36
Eastern Gas Program: Planned Gas Pipelines
•
•
•
•
•
1. Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok
Construction started in July 2009
Will start operation in Q3 2011 , Capacity - 6 BCM m3
Full expected capacity – 35 BCM by 2016
Primary Source: Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky block, Gazprom) – since
2014
Primarily for domestic demand of Far East
2. Yakutia-Khabarovsk
•Will be constructed in 2012-2016 and joined with SakhalinKhabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline
•Capacity: up to 25 BCM
•Primary Source: Chayanda gas deposit in Yakutia, start supply in
2016
•Gas supply primarily for exports
*Vladivostok-Korea Peninsula pipeline project
(Gazprom & Kogas signed agreement in 2009, route research is underway)
37
“Elga” Coal Deposit
• Coking coal deposit of 2 billion ton
• License granted to “Mechel”
• By 2011 “Mechel” will complete the construction of
railroad access – 315 km, $1.3 bln
• Production will start in late 2010
• Target for 2011 – 1 mln ton, since 2013 – 9 mln ton
• By 2018 will reach final output target of 27 mln t/y
38
Prospective Electricity Exports
CHINA
•
•
•
•
•
In 2006 – 523 million kWth, then paused from Feb 2007-March 2009
In 2009 - 800 million kWth exported
In 2010 forecast – 1 billion kWth
From 2013 – 4-5 billion kWth
By 2020 – up to 60 billion kWth
OTHER
• PRIMORSKY REGION - KOREAN PENINSULA
• SAKHALIN- JAPAN
Gas Turbine Power Plant, export via cable under sea
39
LARGE-SCALE ELECTRICITY EXPORT TO CHINA
Possible export volume – 60-70 billion kWh in 2020
40
4. Russia and Far East Nuclear
Power Sector
41
Russia’s Nuclear Power Sector
Bilibinskaya NPP
(2008)Russia: 10 NPPs, 31 power units with total capacity of 23,3 GW (10.3%
that of Russia), electricity production of 163.1 bln kWh (15.7% that of Russia)
– 15 Pressurized water reactors (9 VVER-1000 & 6 VVER-440)
– 15 Boiling Water Reactors (Channel type, 11 RMBK-1000 & 4 EGP-6)
– 1 Fast Breeder Reactor BN-600
42
Bilibinskaya NPP – CHP
•
•
•
•
Single small Russia’s NPP of public
utility
Provides ~30% of electricity & heat
supplies in Chukotka, ~0.4 % of
those in the RFE
Actual Capacity Factor 39.1%,
4 EGP-12 reactors (G-I) were
commissioned over 1974-1976
 Lifetime period of the units as designed had to be completed in 2004-2006
 After auditing the lifetime period was prolonged up to 2019-2021 (subject to
unit)
 Based on the Federal Program on Nuclear Energy Sector Development up to 2015
it is scheduled to decommission BNPP over 2019-2021
43
Nuclear Energy Development in the RFE
• Based on General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020 it is
planned to construct two NPPs in the RFE over 2016-2020
– Pevekskaya Floating NPP with 70 MW (KLT-40S) to replace Bilibinskaya NPP
in Chukotskiy Autonomous Okrug
– Primorskaya NPP with 600 MW (2 x VBER-300) to meet the increase in
domestic power & electricity demand
• Primorskaya NPP could be constructed by IPP to supply New
aluminum plant planned in Primorskiy Krai
• Up to 2016 in Russia it is planned to produce 7 KLT floating
reactors.
44
Pevek and Chersky Floating NPPs
• Capacity 70 MW ×4
• Expected period of
construction 20162020
45
Floating NPP
•
•
•
•
•
Length: 140, Width: 30, Height: 10
Construction period: 4 years
Capacity: 70 MWt (power), 50 MWt (heat)
Power Output: 455 mln kWt/y
Heat Output: 350 000 Gcal/y
46
Yakutia
The investment plans of
placing Floating NPP at 4 sites:
-Tiksi;
-Ust-Kuiga;
-Chersky;
-Yurung-Khaya
47
Floating NPP comparative efficiency
Comparative costs of electricity and heat production
Floating NPP
efficiency
Ratio of costs based on fossil fuel to those of Floating
NPP
Electricity
Heat
3,54
6,2
5
2,53
3,6
2,9
7,13
Production costs
4,3
NPP unit 12 MW
2,64 rub/kWth
936 rub/Gcal
NPP unit 70 MW
1,85 rub/kWth
936 rub/Gcal
Tiksi
Ust-Kuiga
Yurung-Khaya
Chersky
48
Elkon uranium ore deposit
•Estimated
capacity up to
5,000 tons of
uranium per year.
•Investment in the
project are
estimated at 90.5
billion rubles
• Construction on
the field will start
in late 2010 - early
2011.
49
5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities
50
RFE’s Team Modeling Activities
Goals set in 2007




To complete properly of conversion
dataset used from LEAP2004 to
LEAP2008
To move to new base year (2002 
2006)
To integrate possible nuclear energy
facilities into “Nuclear Max” Energy
Path
To model final energy demand in the
context of large-scale energyintensive projects (the problem of
incorporation)
LEAP modeling in 2010

Transforming LEAP2004 dataset to
LEAP2008
 New base year 2008
 Partially disaggregate final demand
by industries
 Changes to Transformation
 Considered three alternative
scenarios:
Reference Scenario
Resource-transit Scenario
Energy Efficient Scenario
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RFE Energy Supply
•Adjustments to the supply (transformation) structure
- RFE divided into: North, South and Sakhalin
•Updating to 2008 base year
•Addition/correction of large-scale energy supply projects
•Addition/correction for exports
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RFE Energy Demand
Sectors: manufacturing,
population, transport, public
sector, service sector.
Manufacturing, transport,
service sector: with fuel demand
for subindustries.
Population and public sector :
with fuel demand by geographic
area for heat and electricity.
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RFE Final Energy Consumption
(2008)
Series1,
public
sector,
1784217.6
06, 15%
Series1,
Series1, Series1,
service
other, manufactu
sector,
41947.535 ring,
107662.47
, 1% 955954.10
1, 1%
6, 8%
Series1,
transport,
3666755.0
manufacturing population
94, 31%
public sector
service sector
Series1,
populatio
n,
transport5207462.3
63, 44%
other
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LEAP modeling:
Reference Scenario
• Moderate economic growth (4-5%)
• Slowing of population decrease
• Average annual growth rate of energy
consumption – 2.8%
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LEAP modeling:
Resource-Transit Scenario
• Active economic growth (7-8%)
• Stabilization of population
• Implementation of all large export projects currently
planned
• Significant growth of extraction and processing of regional
natural resources (petroleum, gas, coal, ores, metals,
forestry, fisheries).
• Stronger cooperation between Far East and APR countries
• Average annual growth rate of energy consumption - 4,2%
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RFE new added power capacity by 2020, MWt
REFERENCE
RESOURCE-TRANSIT
+2670
+1500
+70
+176
COAL PPs
+3600
+2640
HYDRO
+621
+200
NUCLEAR
+600
RFE NORTH
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
RFE SOUTH (UES VOSTOK)
SAKHALIN REGION
COAL PPs
+900
GAS PPs
+800
TOTAL
+7561
+6216
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RFE Prospective Energy Supply
2008 (fact)
by 2020-2022
2030
OIL
PRODUCTION,
mln ton
13.8
30-31
32-33
GAS
PRODUCTION,
BCM
9
(incl. Sakhalin -7)
65-67
(36-37)
85-87
(50-51)
COAL
PRODUCTION,
mln ton
32
39-46
44-57
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Energy-efficient scenario
• Key social & economic indicators are similar with that of
Resource-Transit Scenario.
• Supply side:
– Higher efficiency of PPs – new construction & replacement  (coal
44%, gas 50%, nuclear 34%)
– Decrease electricity transmission loss to 10%
– Maximum renewable energy (possibly up to 4.5%)
– Maximum nuclear energy
• Demand side:
– Decline in energy intensity in ALL sectors according to targets set in
the National Energy Saving Program until 2020
– The impacted sectors are: Industry, Households, Transport, Public
Sector, Service Sector
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Thank you for attention
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