Transcript PowerPoint プレゼンテーション - APEC

Case Studies
on
Financing Renewable Energy Development
Japan
22nd Meeting of the
Expert Group on
New and Renewable Energy Technologies
12-13 May 2004
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Ms. Yayoi IIJIMA
Chief Officer
International Projects Dept.
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO)
Outline
1. Principle of Japan’s Energy Policy: 3Es
2. Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
3. Cost Competitiveness of NRE
4. Creation of Initial Demand
5. New Energy Budget Trend/Origin/Allocation
6. Policy Tools for NRE Promotion
7. Support Measures/System
8. Wind Power
9. PV Power
10. NEDO’s Role in Japan’s New Energy Scheme
2
(1) Principle of Japan’s Energy Policy: 3Es
Security of
Energy Supply
Alternatives to oil
3Es
Harmony
with Environment
Lowering CO2 emission
Economic Efficiency
Market mechanism
*The Basic Plan for Energy Supply and Demand issued in October 2003
*Revision of long-term outlook for energy supply and demand is
scheduled to be finalized this summer
3
(2.1) Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
Supply Side
New Energy
Renewable Energy
FY2010
Indicators
FY2001
Power generation
Photovoltaic power
generation
Wind power generation
Waste power
generation
Biomass generation
Energy utilization
Solar thermal
utilization
Thermal utilization of
waste
Thermal utilization of
biomass
Unused energy (incl.
snow-ice)
Black liquor and scrap
wood, etc*
Total
(ratio of total
primary energy supply)
110,000 kl
(452 MW)
127,000 kl
(312 MW)
1,250,000 kl
(1,110 MW)
1,180,000 kl
(4,820 MW)
1,340,000 kl
(3,000 MW)
48,000 kl
(71 MW)
820,000 kl
5,520,000 kl
(4,170 MW)
340,000 kl
(330 MW)
4,390,000 kl
45,000 kl
140,000 kl
-
670,000 kl
44,000 kl
580,000 kl
4,460,000 kl
4,940,000 kl
6,900,000 kl
19,100,000 kl
(1.2%)
(approx. 3%)
7 million kl
FY2010
Indicators
19 million kl
20 million kl
20 million kl
1 million kl
1 million kl
28 million kl
40 million kl
FY2001
Total New Energy
Hydro Power
Geothermal
Grand Total
(ratio of total
primary energy
supply)
(4.6%) (approx. 7%)
4
(2.2) Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
Demand Side
FY 2001
FY 2010 Indicators
Clean Energy Vehicles (1)
115,000 vehicles
3,480,000 vehicles
Natural Gas Cogeneration (2)
1,190,000 kW
4,640,000 kW
12,000 kW
2,200,000 kW
Fuel cells
(1) Includes
electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, hybrid vehicles,
natural gas vehicles, methanol vehicles, and diesel-alternative
LP gas vehicles.
(2)
Including those powered by fuel cells.
5
(3) Cost Competitiveness of NRE
Power generation cost of new energy
Photovoltaic power
generation
Wind power
generation
Type
Residential
Nonresidential
46~66
73
Power
generation
cost
(unit:
yen/kWh)
Waste power
generation
Small- and
Biomass
mediumSmallSmallpower
scale hydro
Large
and
Large
and
generation
power
scale medium- scale mediumgeneration
scale
scale
9~14
18~24
9~11
11~12
7~21
14
[Source] Report (July 2001) by the New Energy Subcommittee of the
Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and
others
(unit: yen/kWh)
Power generation cost by power source
Type
Nuclear power
LNG-fired
Coal-fired
Oil-fired
Power generation cost
5.9
6.4
6.5
10.2
[Source] Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee (December
1999) of the Advisory Committee for Energy
6
(4) Creation of Initial Demand
Market
independence
Creation of
initial demand
Technical
development
Cannot be sold without support
▪ High cost
▪ Competition with
existing products
▪ Construction of a total
energy system
▪ A lack of social awareness
：Market scale
Development of
new products
Synergistic
effect of mass
production
and cost
reduction
This
period
この時期が重要
is important.
Period of
market creation
Period of independence and expansion in the market
Period of market maturity
7
(5.1) Japan’s Policy Tools for NRE Promotion
RD&D
Sunshine Project/New Sunshine Program
Support for
Introduction
- Cost Reduction
- Output Stability
- Support for introduction by business sector
- Support for residential PV systems
- Support for NPOs promotional activities
Support for Promotion of RE in Regional Governments
- Support for Developing Regional New Energy Visions
- Support for Promotion of Renewable Energy by Regional Governments
Voluntary Action by Private Sector to
Purchase Renewable Energy Electricity
- Renewable Certificates
- Voluntary Action by Power Companies to purchase
Renewable Energy Electricity
Renewable Portfolio Standard System
-Obligates electricity retailers to supply
certain amount of electricity generated
by renewables
Market Expansion by Synergy of
These Measures
8
(5.2) Recent Policy Strengthening to Expand NRE Introduction
Legal aspect
Jan. 2002
May 2002
Added two new energy sources: “biomass” and “snow ice,” to the new energy
sources stipulated in the Law concerning Promotion of the Use of New Energy (in
fiscal 2002, the Government began supporting projects to introduce these
energies).
Establishment of the “Special Measures Law concerning the Use of New Energy,
etc., by Electric Retailers”. This Law made it obligatory, starting in April 2003, for
electricity retailers to increase their ratio of power generated by new energy
sources, such as photovoltaic power, wind power, and biomass.)
Collaboration among
among ministries
ministries
Collaboration
• The entire Government positioned new energy introduction targets in the Global Warming
Measures Promotion Outline decided in March 2002.
• Especially in the biomass field, systematic collaboration among ministries is important.
Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry
New energy measures
Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries
Biomass measures related to
agriculture, forestry, and
fisheries
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transportation
Measures related to
construction waste material and
sewage sludge
Ministry of the
Environment
Waste measures
Support for technological development and experimental testing, and
appropriate collaboration in support for individual projects
9
(6.1) New and Renewable Energy Budget Trend
millio n US $
452
528
billion yen
200
70
6
825
873
1,367
1,479 1,522
161.3
144.9 156.8
150
100
50
1,042
47.9
56.0
1996
1997
74.8
87.5
92.5
1999
2000
110.5
0
※ 1 US$ ＝ \106
1998
2001
2002
2003
2004
(Fiscal year)
10
(6.2) Overview of NRE Budget Origin (FY 2004)
Special A/C for Petroleum
and Sophisticated Structure
of Energy Supply/Demand
(Petro: \2,040/kl;
LPG: \800/t;
LNG: \849/t;
Coal: \230/t;
etc.)
Petroleum-related Measures
Energy Conservation
NatGas Utilization Promotion
Environmentally Friendly Utilization of Coal
Etc.
\87.6B
New Energy Utilization
\63.5B
Regional Power Source Development
Special A/C for Electric
Power Development
Acceleration Measures
(Electricity sales:
\0.425/kWh)
Nuclear Energy Utilization Promotion
Hydro/Thermal Energy Utilization
Etc.
11
(6.3) NRE Budget Allocation
Ⅰ．Technological Development
Budget for FY2004:
about \42.4 billion ≒ US$400 million
• Fundamental investigation
• Development for practical
application
Ⅱ．Demonstrative Testing
Budget for FY2004:
about \26.5 billion ≒ US$250 million
• Field tests
• Demonstrative research
Ⅲ. Introduction Promotion (full utilization of market mechanism)
Budget for FY2004: about \92.4 billion ≒ US$872 million
• Creation of initial demand for inducing market independency
• Creation of environment hospitable to introducing leading-edge new energy
systems
• Financial support (tax system, fiscal investment and loans)
• The Green Purchase Law
• Enlightenment and public information activities
• Renewable Portfolio Standard
※ 1 US$ ＝ \106
12
(7.1) New and Renewable Energy Introduction Support Measures
By offering opportunities to create initial demand, these measures aim
to improve the cost effectiveness of new and renewable energy, with
costs expected to be reduced in the future through economies of scale.
１．Subsidy Program for Residential PV Systems
２．Project for Promoting the Local Introduction of New Energies
３．Project for Supporting New Energy Enterprises
４．Project for Promoting the Local Deployment of New Energies
５．Project for Promotion of Non-Profit Activities on New Energy and Energy Conservation
６．Project for Supporting Regional Activities for Prevention of Global Warming
７．Project for Establishing New Energy Visions at the Local Level
13
(7.2) Support System to Expand New and Renewable Energy Use
General introduction flow
Establishment of regional new energy
plans
• Comprehension and analysis of regional
characteristics
• Establishment of individual project plans, etc.
Main support systems
Support
FY2003 budget: 1,320 million yen →
FY2004 budget: 1,180 million yen
Study on project introduction and
project implementation
•
•
•
•
Introduction planning
Study on financial source
Project method
Experimental testing, etc.
Projects, such as establishment of regional
new energy visions (for local public bodies)
Field Test Project (for enterprises and local public
Support
bodies)
FY2003 budget: 6,900 million yen →
FY2004 budget: 8,290 million yen（ＮＥＤＯ）
Regional New Energy Introduction Promotion
Project
Judgment on project implementation
(for local public bodies)
FY2003 budget: 12,710 million yen →
FY2004 budget: 11,030 million yen
Coordination with related agencies, establishment
of implementation plan, designing,
Installation construction
Support
New Energy Enterprise Support Project
(for enterprises)
Start of service of new energy
FY2003 budget: 38,820 million yen →
FY2004 budget: 48,260 million yen
14
(7.3) Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)
Supporting the Dissemination of Japanese New
Energy/Energy Efficiency Equipment and Technologies
Examination
Stage
Implementation
Stage
Private Sector
Activity Stage
by Developing
by Developing
Economies’ Gov’t
(Supported by JBIC’s
Untied Loans/ODA)
(Supported by JBIC’s
Export Loans,
Overseas Investment
Loans, F/S
Preparation)
Economies’ Gov’t
(Support for Master
Plan Preparation,
Model Projects, etc.)
METI,
NEDO, JICA
JBIC
15
(7.4) JBIC-Financial Support

Export Loans
⇒Support for the Export of New Energy/Energy Efficiency
Equipment and Technologies (e.g. Wind Power Plant, Solar Power
Plant, etc.) to Developing Economies
(Support for Private Sector Business)

Overseas Investment Loans
⇒Support for the Overseas Investment by Japanese Private
Companies of New Energy/Energy Efficiency Projects in
Developing Economies (incl. CDM/JI, ESCO)
(Support for Private Sector Business)

Untied Loans / ODA
⇒Support for the Introduction of New Energy/Energy Efficiency
Projects by Developing Economies’ Government or Public
Corporation
(Support for Public Sector)
16
(7.5) JBIC Support—Three Examples
MexicoGeothermal Power Generation Project
(BOT, 25MW×4)(Export Loan, 2000)
PhilippinesGeothermal Power Generation Project by Philippine
National Oil Company (Untied Loan & Guarantee,
1994/1999)
Purchase of Solar Power Battery Maker by
Japanese Firms (Overseas Investment Loan, 1994)
17
(8.1) Wind Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Number of
Turbines
Introduction Volume
[MW]
80.0
800
Introduction Volume [MW]
Number of Turbines
70.0
700
End of FY2003
68.4MW, 738Turbines
60.0
600
(Preliminary)
50.0
500
40.0
400
30.0
300
20.0
200
10.0
100
0.0
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Fiscal Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: NEDO research data
18
(8.2) International Comparisons—Installed Wind Capacity (MW)
16,000
14,609
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,374 6,202
6,000
4,000
3,110
2,000
0
2,110
912
Germany
US
Spain
Denmark
India
Netherland
904
Italy
684
Japan
649
UK
568
China
Note 1: US and European data are from AWEA and EWEA
Note 2: The data of Japan is from NEDO (preliminary value)
19
(9.1) Residential PV System Subsidy Scheme
Year
Subsidy
Installed Capacity
(Cumulative MW)
1997
1998
1999
1/3 of installation cost
(Max: \340,000/kW)
1/3 of installation cost
(Max: \340,000/kW)
1/3 of installation cost
(Max: \340,000/kW)
32.8
56.9
114.6
2000
Max: \270,000/kW*
189.0
2001
\120,000/kW
280.0
2002
\100,000/kW
421.4
* The incentive was reduced to 180,000 yen/kW for the second half according to subscriber interest and
the price of PV systems. There was a need to reduce it to 150,000 yen/kW during the second half.
20
(9.2) PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Cost of residential PV system
(unit: 1,000JPYen(\))
Applications of PV power
generation (unit: 1MW)
4000
700
\ 2 6 0 / kWh
637
Power generation
cost per 1kWh
600
Installation cost
per 1kW
500
453
400
\ 1 4 0 / kWh
2000
3700
330
\ 1 2 0 / kWh
2000
300
\ 8 2 / kWh
1700
\ 7 2 / kWh \ 7 1 / kWh
1200
24
31
43
209
1040
60
133
1020
\ 6 5 / kWh
\ 5 8 / kWh
930
91
200
\ 5 2 / kWh \ 4 9 / kWh
100
840
750
710
0
0
1993
1994
1995
trial period
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
diffusion project
21
(9.3) International Comparisons—Installed PV Capacity (MW)
Source: IEA/PVPS (end of 2002)
22
(9.4) Scenario on Introduction/Expansion of PV Power Generation
Measures toward introduction and diffusion
Research and development
/ technological development
Stage of experimental
testing and introduction
Private companies’
efforts
２０２０
２０１０
２００５
２００２
２０３０
Diffusion stage
Development of diffusion promotion-type
technology
Establishment of
essential technology
Development of advanced solar battery
technology
(Medium- and long-term
technological development)
Development of revolutionary next-generation
technology
Research and development, and investigation,
on common basic technology
Establishment of
essential technology
Implementation of
technological
development for
further cost
reduction and
efficiency
improvement
(Research and development on common basic technology
to meet new needs)
Integrated linkage-type experimental
testing
Support for
experimental testing
and
introduction
Establishment of
infrastructure in
the software
aspect (systems)
International
cooperation
Project to establish a foundation for introducing
residential photovoltaic power generation
Project to aid promotion of regional new
energy introduction
Electric
companies
Makers, etc.
4.82 million kW
Review of related systems and regulations (construction of
certification systems, etc.)
Special Measures Law on Use of New Energy, etc., by Electric
Enterprises (from 2003)
International joint experimental development on
photovoltaic power generation systems, etc.
Module cost
(technological level)
Economic
target
2010 introduction
target:
photovoltaic
power generation
Photovoltaic power generation field test project
140 yen/W → 100 yen /W
Residential system sales price
Power generation cost
(introduction level)
370,000 yen/kW
30 yen/kW
→
75 yen /W
300,000 yen/kW
25 yen/kW
→
50 yen /W
200,000 yen/kW
10～15 yen/kW
→
30 yen /W
120,000 yen/kW
5～10 yen/kW
Market expansion through surplus electricity purchase scheme
Support by a green power system
Maintenance of international superiority by using results of technological development and improving productivity
23
(10) NEDO’s Role in Japan’s New Energy Scheme
METI
Creates policies/measures,
provides budget to NEDO
Advisory Activities
• Explanatory Meetings
Local Gov’ts
• Dispatch of Experts
Visions, FS,
Introduction
• Consultation
• Workshops
Other Related
Organizations
Manufacturers, NEF,
Think Tanks,
Industry Assoc.
• etc.
Private
Sector
Plans, FS,
Introduction
Projects & Programs
・for Local Gov’ts
・for Private Sector
・for Both Local Gov’ts and Private
Sector (Joint)
R&D
Projects
and
Programs
24
Thank You!!
The End