Transcript GPI Atlantic National Round Table on the Environment and

Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada
Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique
Is Nova Scotia Making Genuine
Progress?
An Overview of Some Key Trends
Halifax, 30 October, 2008
Defining Genuine Progress
• Are there consensus values on the kind of Nova
Scotia we want to leave our children?
• Health and wellbeing, safety and security,
decent living standards, educated populace,
access and inclusion, healthy environment and
natural resources, strong and caring
communities
• Beyond ideology
From indicators to accounts
• What distinguishes GPI from other wellbeing
indicator systems = adds economic valuation
component -> moves towards accounting
system
• = In line with 5 capitals in OSP, which
recognizes that social, human, and natural
capital also have value ->accounting framework
• And EGSPA: Recognizing “the economic value
of Nova Scotia’s environmental assets is
essential to our long-term prosperity.”
-> A new accounting system
• This new accounting framework allows
assessment of full economic, social, and
environmental costs and benefits, & of costeffectiveness of alternative policy options
• vs existing accounting system: Social,
human, natural capital ignored; and their
depletion misleadingly measured as gain; +
anything can make economy grow regardless
of OSP/Weaving Threads goals
A mixed picture
• Improvements in employment, real income,
income equity (inclusion), poverty reduction,
provincial debt status, waste and air quality
(20-year timeline), smoking rate, GHGs…..
• Declines or insufficient progress (in relation to
targets) in agriculture, forests, fisheries,
ecological footprint, energy shift, wealth
equity, obesity, volunteering, student debt.….
• Just a few examples follow:
Official unemployment rates, Canada and
Nova Scotia, 1976-2007
16
14
12
8
6
4
2
Nova Scotia
Canada
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
0
19
76
%
10
Official unemployment rates by region,
Nova Scotia, 2001 to 2007
20
%
15
10
5
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Cape Breton
17.2
15.1
15.8
15.6
14.4
13.1
13.6
North Shore
11.3
10.8
9.8
10
8.7
9.4
10.4
Annapolis Royal
7.8
8
8.4
8.6
8.4
7.8
7.5
Southern
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.2
11.2
11.1
11.1
Halifax
7.1
7.6
6.6
6
5.8
5
5.2
Disposable Household Income (Richest : Poorest
20%) Canada and Provinces, 1981-2004 ($2004)
PE
1981
4.6
4.5
4.1
1993
4.7
4.8
3.5
1998
5.2
4.4
3.8
2004
5.1
4.5
3.9
NS
4.3
4.6
5.3
4.3
NB
4.7
4.4
4.2
5.0
5.5
4.5
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.5
4.5
5.3
4.5
4.5
6.0
5.2
4.6
4.3
5.3
4.5
4.6
5.2
6.0
Canada
NL
QC
ON
MB
SK
AB
BC
Year
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
Ratio Top-Bottom Quint. On
Nova Scotia - Gap Between the Rich
and Poor (1980-2004)
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Average disposable (after-tax) economic family
income by quintile, adjusted for family size,
Canada and Nova Scotia, 1976-2006 ($2006)
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
CANADA
1st quintile
$11,500 $12,600 $12,800 $12,600 $11,800 $13,900 $15,100
2nd quintile
$20,600 $21,900 $21,600 $21,200 $20,800 $23,900 $25,300
3rd quintile
$27,600 $29,000 $28,600 $28,000 $28,100 $31,900 $34,100
4th quintile
$36,200 $37,700 $37,000 $36,600 $36,800 $42,000 $45,000
5th quintile
$57,500 $57,500 $58,500 $58,100 $59,600 $71,400 $75,400
NOVA SCOTIA
1st quintile
$10,800 $10,700 $11,300 $11,900 $10,800 $12,900 $15,200
2nd quintile
$17,500 $17,900 $18,500 $19,300 $18,700 $21,200 $23,900
3rd quintile
$22,700 $23,800 $24,200 $24,900 $24,700 $28,200 $31,100
4th quintile
$28,800 $30,300 $31,800 $32,100 $32,400 $36,500 $39,900
5th quintile
$43,500 $46,300 $50,700 $49,000 $50,300 $61,900 $62,900
Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs base),
total population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1997-2006
18
16
14
12
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Canada
15.3
13.7
13
12.5
11.2
11.6
11.6
11.4
10.8
10.5
NS
14.1
14.1
11.4
11.6
10.6
9.9
11.2
10
8.9
8.4
Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs
base), selected groups, Nova Scotia, 1997-2006
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
unattached men
unattached women
children in female loneparent families
children (under 18 yrs)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
26.8 25.9 31.7 30.7 30.1 28.1 28
33 32.4 29.9
36.7 39 33.8 31.6 26.5 24.8 26.6 28 27.5 29
73 68.6 41.3 35.9 40.9 39.1 39.2 34.3 27.5 32.4
19.3 16.6 11.8 12.5 13.3 12.7 14.4
12
10.4
8.7
Gini coefficients of after-tax income, all family
units (economic families and unattached
individuals), Canada and provinces, 1981 to 2004
1976
1981
1991
1998
2001
2004
Canada
.36
.35
.36
.39
.39
.39
NL
PE
.34
.38
.33
.34
.35
.34
.36
.35
.36
.36
.37
.35
NS
.34
.34
.34
.37
.38
.37
NB
QC
.34
.35
.35
.35
.34
.36
.36
.37
.37
.38
.37
.37
ON
MB
SK
.36
.37
.38
.34
.36
.38
.36
.34
.36
.38
.37
.37
.39
.36
.37
.40
.37
.38
AB
BC
.38
.37
.35
.35
.37
.37
.38
.40
.38
.40
.39
.39
Civic and voluntary work, average hours per
year, total population, 15 years and older,
Canada and provinces, 1992, 1998, and 2005
190
180
hours per year
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1992
1998
2005
Canada
NL
PE
NS
NB
QC
On
MB
SK
AB
BC
140
128
127
176
170
128
122
146
140
176
183
144
170
158
156
146
134
121
128
116
124
134
122
142
164
128
155
146
128
129
140
140
125
Free Time, Nova Scotia and Canada,
1992,1998, 2005 (hours per day)
Other Canada
Nova Scotia
Location and Year
Free Time Activities, NS and Canada 1992,1998,2005
2005
1998
1992
Female
Male
2005
1998
1992
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Hours perDay
5.0
6.0
7.0
Share of population indicating high time
stress, NS and Canada, 1998 & 2005
MALE
Nova Scotia
Rest of Canada
FEMALE
Nova Scotia
Rest of Canada
TOTAL
Nova Scotia
Rest of Canada
1998 GSS %
2005 GSS %
14.7
15.3
13.4
13.9
17.4
19.4
22.7
18.6
16.2
18.6
18.3
16.4
Crime rate, total incidents per 100,000
population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1962-2007
crime rate per 100,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Canada 2,771 3,850 5,355 6,971 8,773 8,957 10,040 8,475 8,161 7,752 7,667 7,655 7,706 8,142 8,160 7,769 7,543 6,984
NS
2,036 2,701 3,509 5,602 7,498 7,525 9,475 8,461 8,163 8,380 7,624 7,670 7,738 8,611 8,791 8,206 8,081 7,456
Crime rate comparison: NS and Canada
rates of increase, 1962-2007 (1962=100)
500
450
400
Rate of increase
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1962
1970
1980
1990
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Canada
100
188
300
341
306
277
276
278
294
295
280
272
252
Nova Scotia
100
178
329
432
415
374
377
380
423
432
403
396
366
Crime rates (per 100,000 population), by
offence breakdown, Nova Scotia, 1962-2007
Crime cost = $700 million/year +
10,000
crime rate
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Total criminal code (excluding 2,036 2,701
traffic offences)
3,509 5,602 7,498
7,525 9,475 8,461 7,738
7,456
Property crime
1,168 1,462
2,160 3,221 4,226
4,419 4,814 4,082 3,379
3,072
Violent crime
242
410
661
1,065
358
485
571
1,102 1,104 1,117
Youth crime rate per 100,000, aged 12-17,
Canada, provinces and territories, 2006
VIOLENT CRIME
PROPERTY CRIME
OTHER CRIMINAL
CODE
1,528
2,534
2,832
6,885
NL
1,620
2,915
4,245
8,780
Prince Edward Island
1,332
3,836
4,235
9,403
Nova Scotia
2,272
3,687
5,154
11,113
New Brunswick
1,680
2,742
4,010
8,432
Quebec
1,110
1,512
1,143
3,765
Ontario
1,438
2,455
2,063
5,956
Manitoba
2,709
3,395
5,037
11,140
Saskatchewan
3,466
6,316
10,156
19,939
Alberta
1,590
3,057
4,078
8,725
British Columbia
1,254
2,183
3,001
6,438
Yukon
4,524
6,155
14,868
25,547
Northwest Territories
7,744
14,391
22,492
44,627
Nunavut
5,635
11,374
14,152
31,161
Canada
TOTAL CRIMINAL
CODE*
Change (Percent) in Total After-Tax
Income (1999–2004) and Median Debt
Value (1999–2005), Canada
45
39.7
40
After-tax Income by Income Quintiles
Median Debt by Net Worth Quintiles
35
29.6
30
%
25.2
24.4
25
20
15
10
11.7
9.7
7.3
8.6
9.2
5
1.4
0
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Net Worth by Wealth Quintile ($
Trillions, 2005 Constant $),
Canada, 1999 and 2005
4.0
3.37
3.5
3.0
1999
2005
2.35
$ Trillion
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.98
1.0
0.69
0.30
0.5
-0.004-0.006
0.41
0.09 0.11
0.0
-0.5
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Share of Wealth (Percent), by
Net Worth Quintile, Canada,
1999 and 2005
80
68.6
70
60
1999
69.2
2005
%
50
40
30
20.1
20.2
20
10
8.8
2.6
8.4
2.3
0
First&Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Current Youth Smokers, aged 15–
24, Canada and NS, 1999–2005
40
Percentage
30
20
10
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
CANADA
32
29
27
26
25
23
22
NS
33
31
29
27
27
26
20
Year
CANADA
NS
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
39
31
25
34
33
2726
25
25
29
27
30
27
2426
21
16
1617
16
17
Province
15-24
25+
BC
AL
B
SA
SK
AN
M
ON
T
QU
E
NB
NS
PE
I
D
NF
L
A
5
CA
NA
D
Percentage
Percentage Decline in Tobacco Use,
Canada & Provinces, 1999-2005
Measured obesity rates by province,
aged 18+, 2004
Overweight and obesity rates by
province, children, aged 2 -17, 2004
Percentage of population aged 12 and
over diagnosed with asthma, both sexes,
Canada and provinces, 2007
12.0
10.8
10.0
8.9
8.7
Percentage
8.0
8.1
8.0
6.0
8.4
8.1
8.9
7.2
8.6
6.7
5.4
5.2
4.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
CAN NL
PE
NS
NB
QC
ON MB SK
AB
BC
YK
NT
NU
Average amount of government student
debt at time of graduation ($2000 CDN),
Classes of 1990, 1995, and 2000, Canada
1 0 ,8 0 0
Bac helor's
1 4 ,5 0 0
1 9 ,0 0 0
7 ,1 0 0
C ollege
1 0 ,3 0 0
1 2 ,5 0 0
1990
1995
2000
0
5 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
Average student debt
1 5 ,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
Percentile scores of correct answers to
general political knowledge questions,
by age group, 1984, 1993, 1997, 2000
Year
1984
1993
1997
2000
18Š23
39.3
36.7
37.8
31.4
24Š29
43.7
46.7
41.0
36.2
Age Group
30Š34
35Š39
51.9
47.1
46.1
47.6
51.4
50.3
47.7
49.5
40Š49
54.4
55.5
53.2
51.4
50Š59
57.9
53.1
58.4
59.7
60 +
52.4
56.0
57.0
58.3
Total Farm Cash Receipts, NS,
1971–2007 (Millions of $2007)
600
500
Millions of $
400
300
200
NS
Linear (NS)
100
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Total Net Farm Income, Nova Scotia,
1971–2007 (millions of $2007)
140
130
120
110
NS Farms
100
Linear (NS Farms)
90
Millions of $
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Expense to Income Ratio (%),
Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006
110
105
100
90
85
80
75
NS Expense to Income Ratio
70
Linear (NS Expense to Income Ratio)
65
60
55
//
Expense to Income Raio (%)
95
50
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Total Net Farm Income and Total
Debt, NS Farms, 1971-2006
(millions of $2007)
Debt to Net Income Ratio,
Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006
3,500
NS Farms
3,000
2,500
Ratio
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Solvency Ratio, Nova Scotia, QC,
and Canadian farms, 1971–2006
Ratio
NS farms
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1970
Quebec farms
Canadian average
Linear (NS farms)
1980
1990
Year
2000
Fishery GDP for Nova Scotia,
1984-1999 (1997$ millions)
NS Fishery GDP
300
200
100
Year
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
0
1984
Millions of 1997$
400
Value of cod stocks, Eastern
Scotian Shelf region, 19722002, (2007$ millions).
Value of Eastern Scotian Shelf Cod Stocks
200
150
100
50
Year
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
0
1972
Millions (2007 $)
250
Lobster landings in Nova Scotia,
1972-2007 (metric tonnes)
Nova Scotia's Lobster Landings
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Year
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
0
1972
Landings (Metric Tonnes)
35000
Mean trophic level (weighted by
landed weight) in Nova Scotia
Fisheries, 1972-2007
Mean Trophic Level of Nova Scotia Fisheries
(Weighted by Landings)
3.6
3.4
Total Landings
3.2
Excluding Cod
3.0
2.8
Year
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
2.6
1972
Mean Trophic Level
3.8
Estimated total biomass of
porbeagle shark in the northwest
Atlantic, 1961, 1991 and 2001
Estimated Biomass of Porbeagle Shark
Thousands of Metric Tonnes
45000
40000
38967
35000
30000
25000
20000
13260
15000
10000
4409
5000
0
1961
1991
Year
2001
Employment trend in Nova
Scotia fisheries, 1987-2007
Fishers Employed in Nova Scotia Fisheries
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
Year
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
6000
1987
Number of Fishers
12000
Age distribution of Nova
Scotian fishers, 1931-2006
Figure 1. Provincial Forest Area by Age Class, Percentage of Total
Forest Area, 1958–2003
45
40
35
Percentage
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Up to 20
yrs.
1958
21 to 40 yrs. 41 to 60 yrs. 61 to 80 yrs.
81 to 100
yrs.
101 + yrs.
6.3
34.5
34.3
16.4
8.7
All aged
1965-71
5.6
12.7
40.1
32.6
7
0.9
1.1
1970-78
3.8
11.9
35.1
32.7
7.5
1.1
7.9
1975-82
6.2
13
34.9
28.2
8.3
1.9
7.5
1976-85
10.6
16
36.4
25.1
5
0.7
6.2
1979-89
12
20
40.3
22.1
3.4
0.6
1.2
1999 update
16.3
15.3
36.3
11.5
0.96
0.15
19.6
1997-2003
23.9
12.8
32.3
11.9
1.2
0.3
17.3
Figure 2. Provincial Forest Area by Age Classes over 61 yrs., Percentage
of Total Forest Area, 1958-2003
40
35
1958
34.3 32.7
32.6
1965-71
1970-78
30
28.2
1975-82
percentage
25.1
25
1976-85
22.1
1979-89
20
1999 update
16.4
15
11.5
1997-2003
11.9
8.7
8.3
7 7.5
10
5
5
3.4
1.0 1.2
0.9 1.1
1.9
0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3
0
61-80
81-100
101+
Figure 3. Provincial Forest Area by Age Classes up to 40 years of age,
Percentage of Total Forest Area, 1958-2003
1958
30
1965-71
23.9
25
1970-78
percentage
20
20
16.3
15
10.6
10
5.6
5
16
12.7 11.9 13
12
6.2
6.3
1975-82
15.3
12.8
1976-85
1979-89
3.8
1999 update
0
Up to 20 yrs.
21 to 40 yrs.
1997-2003
Figure 5. Provincial Forest Area over 80 years old, Percentage of Total
Forest Area, Nova Scotia, 1958-2003
30
25.1
25
percentage
20
15
10.2
10
7.9
8.6
5.7
3.9
5
1.2
1.5
0
1958
1965-71
1970-78
1975-82
1976-85
1979-89
1999 update 1997-2003
Protected areas, Nova Scotia, 2007
TYPE OF PROTECTED AREA
34 Wilderness Areas
16 Nature Reserves
2 National Parks and 5 National
Wildlife Areas
Provincial Parks and Park Reserves
National Heritage Rivers
Total Area Protected
Percentage of Total Provincial
land (5.5 million ha)
TOTAL (HA)
294,951
4,123
137,379
33,000
N/A
469,453
8.5%
(interim target 12%)
Total area harvested and area clearcut,
Nova Scotia, 1975-2005, (hectares)
80
Hectares thousands
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Area clearcut
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
27.3 28.3 33.7 35
20.1 28.8 41.1 35.9 37.6 42.8 49.1 68.7 47.9 52.1 48.9 50.9
Total area harvested 27.3 28.3 33.7 36.4 20.7 29.8 42.3 36.7 38.2 43.6
50
69.8 49.7 53.2 53
54.3
Percentage of area harvested by clearcutting,
1975-2005
100
100
98.5
96.1
98.2
96.7
97.1
95
Percentage
93.6
90
85
80
75
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Figure 1. Harvest methods by area, Nova Scotia, 2000-2005
70,000
60,000
hectares
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Area clearcut (even-aged
management systems include 1
and 2 stage, shelterwood and
seed tree)
52,874
52,113
50,294
48,874
55,547
50,864
Commercial thinning
1,050
861
999
3,554
2,823
2,624
509
252
364
476
1,134
838
54,433
53,226
51,657
52,858
59,504
54,326
Selection
Total Area Harvested
Value-added per cubic metre of wood
harvested, by province, 1998 & 2004, ($2007)
PROVINCE
VALUE-ADDED
(PER M3 OF WOOD
HARVESTED)1998
VALUE –ADDED
(PER M3 OF WOOD
HARVESTED)2004
NFLD
$50
$121
PEI
$39
$54
NS
$127
$107
NB*
$156
$176
QC
$260
$241
ON
$374
$367
MAN
$123
$425
SASK
$79
$142
ALTA*
$113
$137
BC
$133
$117
$205
$183
CANADA
Nova Scotia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(kt of CO2 equivalents), 1990-2006
24 000
C02 Equivalents (kt)
23 000
22 000
21 000
20 000
19 000
18 000
17 000
16 000
15 000
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GHG Emissions (kt) 19 000 18 600 18 900 19 500 19 800 20 300 20 900 20 100 19 500 21 700 22 700 21 700 19 600
Year
Per capita GHG emissions, Canada, provinces,
territories, 2006 (kt of CO2 equivalents)
80
70
C02 Equivalents (kt)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sask.
Alta.
N.B.
N.S.
Nfld.
GHG Emissions (kt) 72,9
69,4
23,9
21,0
18,4
N.W.T
Man. . &
Ont.
Nnvt.
18,0 17,7 15,0
Province
P.E.I.
B.C.
Yuk.
Que.
Canad
a
14,9
14,4
12,6
10,7
22,1
2006 NS greenhouse gas emissions broken
down by sector (kt of CO2 equivalents)
Greenhouse Gas Source
2006
Percent of
Category
Emissions
Total
Energy Total
18400
94%
Electricity Generation
6140
31%
Fossil Fuel Industries
950
5%
Commercial/Institutional
1760
9%
Residential
1100
6%
Transportation Total
5700
29%
Road transport
3860
20%
Agriculture
480
2%
Waste
520
3%
Nova Scotia Total
19600
100%
Major sources of GHG emissions, Nova
Scotia, 2006
Other
31%
Transportation
29%
Electricity
Generation
31%
Commercial and
Institutional
9%
NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 19902006, compared to NS EGSPA target for 2020
25 000
CO2 Equivalents (kt)
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
GHG Emissions
EGSP Act target
NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 19902006, cf Suzuki Fdn. emissions target for 2020
25 000
CO2 Equivalents (kt)
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
GHG Emissions
Suzuki 2020 Target
Cumulative potential damage cost avoidance through achieving the NS
Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation
Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020)
EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)
Year
Emission
Reductio
ns
(tonnes)
Suzuki Target (25% below 1990)
Damage Cost Avoidance
(C$2005 millions)
$36 per tonne
$1,230 per
tonne
Emission
Reductio
ns
(tonnes)
Damage Cost Avoidance (C$2005
millions)
$36 per tonne
$1,230 per tonne
2008
397,000
$14.3
$488.3
622,000
$22.4
$765.1
2009
794,000
$28.6
$976.6
1,244,000
$44.8
$1,530.1
2010
1,191,000
$42.9
$1,464.9
1,866,000
$67.2
$2,295.2
2011
1,588,000
$57.2
$1,953.2
2,488,000
$89.6
$3,060.2
2012
1,985,000
$71.5
$2,441.6
3,110,000
$112.0
$3,825.3
2013
2,382,000
$85.8
$2,929.9
3,732,000
$134.4
$4,590.4
2014
2,779,000
$100.0
$3,418.2
4,354,000
$156.7
$5,355.4
2015
3,176,000
$114.3
$3,906.5
4,976,000
$179.1
$6,120.5
2016
3,573,000
$128.6
$4,394.8
5,598,000
$201.5
$6,885.5
2017
3,970,000
$142.9
$4,883.1
6,218,000
$223.8
$7,648.1
2018
4,367,000
$157.2
$5,371.4
6,840,000
$246.2
$8,413.2
2019
4,764,000
$171.5
$5,859.7
7,462,000
$268.6
$9,178.3
2020
5,161,000
$185.8
$6,348.0
8,084,000
$291.0
$9,943.3
36,127,000
$1,300.6
$44,436.2
56,594,000
$2,037.4
$69,610.6
Total
Cumulative potential co-benefits through achieving the NS Environmental
Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on
graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020)
EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)
Year
Emission
Reductio
n
(tonnes)
Suzuki Target (25% below 1990)
Co-Benefits
(C$2005 millions)
$13 per tonne
$20 per tonne
Emission
Reductio
ns
(tonnes)
Co-Benefits
(C$2005 millions)
$13 per tonne
$20 per tonne
2008
397,000
$5.2
$7.9
622,000
$8.1
$12.4
2009
794,000
$10.3
$15.9
1,244,000
$16.2
$24.9
2010
1,191,000
$15.5
$23.8
1,866,000
$24.3
$37.3
2011
1,588,000
$20.6
$31.8
2,488,000
$32.3
$49.8
2012
1,985,000
$25.8
$39.7
3,110,000
$40.4
$62.2
2013
2,382,000
$31.0
$47.6
3,732,000
$48.5
$74.6
2014
2,779,000
$36.1
$55.6
4,354,000
$56.6
$87.1
2015
3,176,000
$41.3
$63.5
4,976,000
$64.7
$99.5
2016
3,573,000
$46.4
$71.5
5,598,000
$72.8
$112.0
2017
3,970,000
$51.6
$79.4
6,218,000
$80.8
$124.4
2018
4,367,000
$56.8
$87.3
6,840,000
$88.9
$136.8
2019
4,764,000
$61.9
$95.3
7,462,000
$97.0
$149.2
2020
5,161,000
$67.1
$103.2
8,084,000
$105.1
$161.7
36,127,000
$469.7
$722.5
56,594,000
$735.7
$1,131.9
Total
Control cost estimates of meeting the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable
Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission
reductions from 2008-2020)
EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)
Year
Emission
Reductio
n (tonnes)
Suzuki Target (25% below 1990)
Control Cost
(C$2005 millions)
$12 per tonne
$142 per
tonne
Emission
Reductio
ns
(tonnes)
Control Cost
(C$2005 millions)
$12 per tonne
$142 per
tonne
2008
397,000
$4.8
$56.4
622,000
$7.5
$88.3
2009
794,000
$4.8
$56.4
1,244,000
$7.5
$88.3
2010
1,191,000
$4.8
$56.4
1,866,000
$7.5
$88.3
2011
1,588,000
$4.8
$56.4
2,488,000
$7.5
$88.3
2012
1,985,000
$4.8
$56.4
3,110,000
$7.5
$88.3
2013
2,382,000
$4.8
$56.4
3,732,000
$7.5
$88.3
2014
2,779,000
$4.8
$56.4
4,354,000
$7.5
$88.3
2015
3,176,000
$4.8
$56.4
4,976,000
$7.5
$88.3
2016
3,573,000
$4.8
$56.4
5,598,000
$7.5
$88.3
2017
3,970,000
$4.8
$56.4
6,218,000
$7.5
$88.3
2018
4,367,000
$4.8
$56.4
6,840,000
$7.5
$88.3
2019
4,764,000
$4.8
$56.4
7,462,000
$7.5
$88.3
2020
5,161,000
$4.8
$56.4
8,084,000
$7.5
$88.3
Total
36,127,000
$61.9
$732.9
56,594,000
$97.0
$1,148.2
Summary of damage avoidance benefits and control costs
in year 2020 and cumulatively 2008-2020, (C$2005 mill.)
In Year 2020
CO2 Equivalent Reduction
Low
Estimate
Cumulative Over 2008-2020
High Estimate
Low
Estimate
High Estimate
Maximum EGSP Act (5,150,000 tonnes)
Damage Avoidance
Climate Change Mitigation
Co-Benefits
Total Damage Avoidance
$185.8
$6,348.0
$1,300.6
$44,436.2
$67.1
$103.2
$469.7
$722.5
$252.9
$6,451.2
$1,770.3
$45,158.7
$4.8
$56.4
$61.9
$732.9
Control Costs
Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs
Net Benefits
53:1
114:1
29:1
62:1
$248.1
$6,394.8
$1,708.4
$44,425.8
$291
$9,943.3
$2,037.4
$69,610.6
$105.1
$1,61.7
$735.7
$1,131.9
$396.1
$10,105.0
$2,773.1
$70,742.5
$7.5
$88.3
$97
$1,148.2
Maximum Suzuki (8,075,000 tonnes)
Damage Avoidance
Climate Change Mitigation
Co-Benefits
Total Damage Avoidance
Control Costs
Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs
Net Benefits
53:1
$388.6
114:1
$10,016.7
29:1
62:1
$2,676.1
$69,594.3
Cost-effectiveness:
• Every $1 invested in reducing GHG emissions through
2008-2020 will save $29 in avoided damages.
• When control costs are subtracted from benefits
attained by avoiding climate change damages and
achieving co-benefits (cleaner air), net cumulative
benefit of achieving EGSPA greenhouse gas emissions
target by 2020 is $846 million
• Meeting the Suzuki target will produce a net
cumulative benefit of $1.8 billion
• Stern: "The benefits of strong, early action on
climate change outweigh the costs."
Energy Demand (TJ)
on
Energy use, final demand, terajoules (TJ),
Nova Scotia, 1978 to 2006
225,000
175,000
125,000
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Power generation fuel mix for Nova
Scotia Power, 1993-2006
Percent of fuel mix
on
100%
90%
80%
70%
Purchases
60%
50%
Natural Gas
Hydro & Wind
40%
Oil
Coal
30%
20%
10%
0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
PassengerPassengerkm
km
(millions) onon
(millions)
Total road passenger movement,
in Nova Scotia, 1990-2006
(millions of passenger-km)
20,000
20,000
19,000
19,000
18,000
18,000
17,000
17,000
16,000
16,000
15,000
15,000
14,000
14,000
1990
1990
1991
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004
1991 1992
1992 1993
1993 1994
1994 1995
1995 19961996 19971997199819981999 19992000 2000
17,879
18,187
19,06219,062
18,11318,113
18,00818,141
18,392 18,500
18,888 19,027
18,945
p-km
15,805 16,160
16,160 16,701
16,701 17,291
17,291 17,683
17,68318,126
18,12617,667
17,667
17,879
18,187
p-km 15,805
Year
2005
2004
2006
2005
18,727 19,177
18,810
19,118
on on
10,000
Passenger-km
Passenger km
(millions)
(millions)
Total road passenger movement,
NS, by vehicle type, 1990 to 2006
8,000
12,000
9,000
10,000
7,000
6,000
8,000
5,000
6,000
4,000
3,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1990
1991
Small
8,156 7,815
8,934
Small Car
Car 7,053
Large
2,982 4,198
3,079
Large Car
Car 4,085
Truck
Truck
Buses
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
8,142
7,8758,934
8,103 9,195
8,204 9,315
8,275 9,429
8,159 9,329
7,922
9,259 8,499
9,621 8,623
9,745 8,810
9,9448,456
9,5578,4299,5368,3919,4988,6219,759
4,203
3,7792,720
3,881 2,789
3,936 2,825
4,023 2,870
4,020 2,851
3,957
3,086 4,253
3,131 4,232
3,109 4,262
3,1284,068
2,9674,0542,9474,0342,9274,1352,997
2005
7,889
9,313
4,009
2,862
3,575
5,2805,280
5,002 5,002
5,217 5,217
5,579 5,579
5,785 5,785
5,809 5,810
5,908
3,575 3,113
3,113 3,332
3,332 3,538
3,538 3,729
3,729 3,908
3,9084,076
4,0764,2954,2954,5854,5855,1195,119
1,011 967
1,1171,117969 1,103
974 1,082
957 1,097
915 1,087
960 1,113
915
967 961
961 941
941 1,041
1,041 1,090
1,0901,006
1,0061,0511,0511,1121,1121,1351,135
Total GHG emissions from
transportation, NS, 1990 to 2005
(kt CO2 equivalents)
kt
ktCO
equivalent
CO22equivalent
on
on
6,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
6,000
5,500
5,500
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500
4,000
1990 1991
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006
1991 1992
1992 1993
1993 1994
1994 1995
1995 1996
1996199719971998199819991999
5,8005,800
5,6005,700
5,400 5,500
5,500 5,600
6,000 6,200
6,200 6,400
6,300 6,400
5,700
5,100 4,900
4,900 4,900
4,900 5,100
5,100 5,200
5,2005,100
5,3005,100
5,1005,200
5,2005,3005,400
Emissions 5,000
18
800
on
16
700
on
Fatalities per 100,000
14
600
Injuries per 100,000
Number of fatalities and injuries from road accidents
per 100,000 residents, Nova Scotia, 1990 to 2005
12
500
10
400
8
300
6
200
4
100
2
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fatalities 16.4 12.6 12.3 10.8 9.8 11.5 12.1 9.5
9.0 10.4 9.3
8.6
9.4
7.5
9.6
7.7
Injuries 608.4 672.2 669.3 708.6 675.3 677.9 677.6 691.9 700.6 735.3 749.5 678.6 636.6 565.0 545.7 524.9
0
Modal share (percentage) of
transportation to work, Nova
Scotia, 1996-2006
80%
on
70%
60%
Percent (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Driver
Passenger
Public Transit
Walked
Bicycle
Other
1996
74.3%
10.2%
5.1%
8.3%
0.7%
2.1%
2001
75.2%
9.6%
4.8%
8.3%
0.6%
1.5%
2006
72.8%
10.8%
5.9%
8.2%
0.7%
1.5%
Reducing NS’s Ecological
Footprint: eg) Transportation
• Drive less, walk & cycle more, use public
transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car ->
4/car, 3 days/week, reduces commuting
footprint by 45%
• Coordinated land use/transportation
planning is essential to bring about any
substantial shift in transportation patterns
Indicator: Nova Scotia Criteria Air
Contaminant Emissions (kg/capita) 1990-2005
CO
SOx
NOx
VOCs
1990
355
197
81
76
1995
340
180
79
85
2002
314
163
72
52
2005
276
135
77
49
NS Footprint Projected to 2020
Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint, GPI Atlantic 2001
Can we do it?
Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia
60
% Diversion
50
40
30
20
10
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
THE NOVA SCOTIA GPI SOLID WASTE-RESOURCE ACCOUNTS
COSTS
Operating and amortized capital costs
Beveraging Container Recycling Program (net)
Used Tire Management Program (net)
Etc
Etc
Costs to increase participation
Total Costs
Cost Per Capita
$
$
$
Low
72,500,000
14,300,000
2,700,000
$
$
$
Medium
72,500,000
14,300,000
2,700,000
$
$
$
High
72,500,000
14,300,000
2,700,000
$
$
$
5,000,000
96,600,000
103
$
$
$
7,000,000
99,400,000
106
$
$
$
9,500,000
102,700,000
109
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,800,000
3,700,000
3,300,000
9,500,000
18,800,000
175,000
1,300,000
1,100,000
190,000
28,700,000
4,980,000
4,400,000
250,000
79,195,000
84
(17,400,000)
(18)
31,200,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,300,000
4,250,000
34,200,000
42,600,000
18,800,000
175,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
190,000
28,700,000
4,980,000
4,400,000
250,000
144,845,000
154
45,400,000
48
94,000,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,900,000
5,100,000
84,300,000
67,400,000
18,800,000
175,000
1,900,000
1,650,000
190,000
28,700,000
4,980,000
4,400,000
250,000
221,745,000
236
120,000,000
127
167,800,000
BENEFITS
Employment benefits (direct)
Employment benefits (indirect)
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
Reduction in air pollutant emissions
Extended landfill life
Avoided siting costs
Avoided compensation
Export revenue
Tourism
Energy savings from recycling
RRFB diversion credits
RRFB approved programs
RRFB investment
Total benefits
Benefits per capita
Net annual cost ( ) or benefit
Annual cost ( ) or benefit per capita
Net savings compared to pre-Strategy cost
Full cost Accounting Results
• The new NS solid waste-resource system in
2000-01 produced net savings of at least
$31.2 million, when compared to the old
1996-97 solid waste-resource system
• This translates into savings of $33 for each
Nova Scotian, versus a cost of $25 as
suggested when comparing strictly the
operating and amortized capital costs of the
two systems
Benefits
• Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from $79
million to $221 million =$84-$236 pp, incl:
– $3.3 - $84.3 million in GHG emission
reductions;
– $9 - $67 million in air pollutant reductions
– $18.8 million in extended landfill life
– $28.6 million in energy savings from recycling
– $6.5 - $8.9 million in employment benefits
– $1.2 - $1.9 million in avoided liability costs
– $1.1 - $1.7 million in export revenue of goods
and services
– $187,000 in additional tourism
Energy savings per tonne of waste
recycled
Material
Energy savings
Paper
8.5 million Btu
Plastic
20.1 million Btu
Glass
2.4 million Btu
Steel Cans
18.4 million Btu
Aluminium Cans
166.9 million Btu
Costs
• Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource system
were $96.6-102.7 million:
– $72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs
– $14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog.
– $2.7 million for used tire management program
– $1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs
– $5 - $9.5 million to increase participation
– $220,000 - $1.8 million in nuisance costs
Conclusions: Accounts
1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led
to a considerable net benefit, both in
monetary and non-monetary terms:
• The solid waste-resource system in 200001, despite increased operating and
amortized capital costs, provided a net
savings of between $31 million and $167.7
million compared to the operating and
amortized capital costs of the old system
Indicators of Genuine Progress
• % diversion from landfills: <5%% -> 50%
• Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia
jumped from less than 5% in 1989 to 99%
today
• 76% of residents now have access to
curbside organics pickup
• Access =highest rates in the country
• This is “genuine progress”
Conclusions: Indicators
• Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally
and nationally in solid waste diversion.
• The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and
levels of waste being composted and recycled
have all improved since the introduction of
the Solid Waste-Resource Strategy.
• BUT backsliding: Diversion 50% (2000) ->
36% today (a/c NS DOE) 41% (Statcan)
Per capita solid waste disposal (kg) for
Canada and provinces, 2004 and 2006
980
1,011
Northwest Territory
Yukon Territory
674
British Columbia
658
675
2004
809
2006
959
Alberta
1,133
799
844
Saskatchewan
793
869
M anitoba
790
822
Ontario
855
890
Quebec
588
601
New Brunswick
426
430
Nova Scotia
773
800
Newfoundland and Labrador
788
835
Canada
0
200
400
600
kg p er cap ita
800
1000
1200
Diversion rate of waste by province
and territory, 2004 and 2006
2004
2006
Yukon Territ ory , Nort hwest Territories and
Nunavut
11.9
15.9
30.4
31.9
British Columbia
16.8
14.6
Albert a
12.6
11.4
Saskat chewan
14.5
13
M anit oba
19.8
18.7
Ontario
24.8
26.5
Quebec
24
New Brunswick
35.9
37.5
40.7
Nova Scotia
34
Prince Edward Island
37.8
8.1
6.9
Newfoundland and Labrador
22
22
Canada
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
30
35
40
45
Per capita solid waste disposal (kg per capita
per year), Nova Scotia, 1996/97-2006/07
kg/person/year
600
500
400
543
537
470
357
394
400
400
436
463
488
477
300
200
100
0
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
fiscal year
Residential recycling rate, Canada
and provinces, 2000-2004
50
45
40
35
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2002
2004
N.S
N.B
Que.
Ont.
Man.
Sask.
Alta.
B.C.
Canada
30.5
42
45.1
18.4
21.9
22.8
15.6
17.1
19.4
20.8
23
29.9
10.1
16.2
15.1
11
12.4
15.2
17
27
27.7
31.1
34.8
37.7
19.3
22.8
26.8
%
Percent of residents who compost,
Canada and provinces, 1994 and 2006
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1994
2006
Canada
Nfld.
P.E.I.
N.S.
N.B.
Que.
Ont.
Man.
Sask.
Alta.
B.C.
23
27
9
21
17
91
19
69
16
32
8
13
30
34
18
23
22
27
21
22
38
30
Volunteerism:
Atlantic Provinces lead (formal rate)
Measuring What we Value -
Leaving a Sustainable and
Prosperous Nova Scotia for
our Children
Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada
Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique
www.gpiatlantic.org