Transcript ENERGY 2020 Reference Case

Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich
Climate Change Advisory Group
(ICCAG)
ENERGY 2020 Reference Case
September 6, 2007
Data Sources - Economic




Economic output and employment forecast
from REMI model (provided by IDCEO)
Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030
Moderate population growth (<1% annually)
Real personal income expected to grow more
rapidly - raising income/capita
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Data Sources - Economic
Average Annual Growth
Population and Income
Population (thousands)
Disposable Personal Income
(billions 2000 $)
Disposable Income per
Capita (2000 $)
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
1990
2005
2020
1990-2005
2005-2020
10,825
12,770
13,816
1.1%
0.5%
306
385
498
1.5%
1.7%
28,306
30,149
36,066
0.4%
1.2%
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Data Sources - Economic
 Employment
patterns have shifted over
the past 15 years.
 Service economy growth has offset
decreased industrial/agricultural
employment.
 Pattern is expected to continue over the
forecast period.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Data Sources - Economic
Employment
(thousands)
1990
2005
2020
Average Annual Growth
Industrial
Commercial
Government
Agriculture and Forestry
Total
1,335
4,824
670
123
6,951
1,169
5,173
735
103
7,181
1,130
5,893
776
93
7,892
-0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
-0.9%
0.4%
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Historic Energy Use Data
Description of Data
Sources
Household Data
 Including number of housing units by
structure and type
Residential Data
 Household income by housing type
 Number of people per household
 End use data, including primary fuel type
for space and water heating, air
conditioning saturations, etc.
Commercial Data
 Floor area by sub-sector
 End use data including primary fuel for
space and water heating; energy
intensities
Industrial/Manufacturing Data
 Energy use by sub-sector and end use
State Energy Data
 Overall energy consumption and
expenditures by sector and energy
source
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
United States Census Bureau
EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey by Census
Region and Division
eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/content.html
EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey by
Census Region and Division
eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/content.html
EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey by Census
Region
eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/content.html
EIA State Energy Data System
eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html
Illinois Commerce Commission Annual Comparison of Sales
Statistics for Electricity and Natural Gas
icc.illinois.gov/industry/publicutility/energy/salesstatistics.aspcx
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Data Sources - Prices

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


Oil prices from AEO (figure follows).
Wellhead price of natural gas based on AEO.
Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth
and delivered prices for electric power plant).
Historic electricity prices from Energy Information
Administration (EIA) (Federal Electricity
Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1).
Model calculates power prices based on
generation costs. (Actual prices may differ as a
result of political, regulatory or market
influences).
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Data Sources – National Prices
Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Data Sources – Illinois Delivered Prices
35
30
2007 $ / mmBTU
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2005
2010
Electricty
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
Oil
Natural Gas
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2015
2020
Coal
9
Data Sources - Prices
Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Data Sources – Electricity Sector
Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy
Data System (NEEDS) 2006 database.
 Reviewed additional sources regarding planned
electricity generation and for calibration:




Implementation of EGU1 and EGU2 Policies Using the
Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) in the Midwest RPO
Region Prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors
Consortium (LADCO)
Study of Emissions Impact by the Illinois Sustainable
Energy Plan Based on Optimal Power Flow Modeling,
PowerWorld
Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Coal’s Resurgence in
Electric Power Generation, DOE National Energy
Technology Laboratory.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Points of Comparison
 Electric Power Sector
 LADCO, PowerWorld and Shaw reports
 National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and
IEPA re planned generation
 September 2006 Illinois Auction Post-Auction Public
Report of the Staff, Illinois Commerce Commission re
prices
 GHG Emissions
 US EPA Inventory and WRI report for Illinois
 Transportation

Illinois EPA and DOT
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Built Environment
Housing Splits by Type
Single Family
Multi Family
Other Residential
2005
61%
35%
4%
2015
59%
36%
5%
2020
57%
37%
5%

The Reference Case assumes no significant change
in the mix of the housing stock over the forecast period.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Electricity Sector - Reference Case

1,610 MW of coal capacity assumed to be
retired prior to 2020.
 Assumed 2,600 MW of coal capacity now in
planning stage will come on-line between 2009
and 2011, reflecting additions already in play
(includes ~600 MW of natural gas).
 Assumed for modeling purposes only – does not
imply decisions regarding specific plants.
 Transmission interconnections modeled based
on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Electricity Sales
Reference Case
180,000
160,000
Street Lights/Misc.
140,000
Sales (GWh/year)
Transportation
120,000
Industrial
Commercial
100,000
Residential
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2000
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
2005
2010
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2015
2020
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Electricity Sales
Contribution to Sales Growth 2005 - 2020
Transportation,
0.1%
Industrial, 32.3%
Residential,
46.2%
Commercial,
21.4%
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Electricity Generation
Reference Case
250,000
Other
Generation (GWh/year)
200,000
Wind
Landfill
Gas/EFW
Gas/Oil
Hydro
150,000
CCS Coal
Coal
Nuclear
100,000
50,000
2000
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
2005
2010
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2015
2020
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Electricity Generation
Contribution to Generation Growth 2005 2020
Landfill Gas/EFW,
4.7%
Wind, 6.5%
Coal, 25.5%
Gas/Oil, 63.3%
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Illinois Electricity Generation
Reference Case
Generation Output (GWh/year)
Gas/Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
Total
Generation Capacity (MW)
Gas/Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Landfill Gas/EFW
Wind
Other
Total
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
2005
7,674
92,553
93,480
338
941
311
277
195,574
2010
9,104
95,415
93,480
338
941
311
277
199,866
2015
17,984
103,964
93,480
338
1,296
1,103
277
218,443
2020
22,839
98,661
93,480
338
2,055
1,879
277
219,529
2005
15,452
15,252
11,448
49
119
112
45
42,477
2010
15,452
15,628
11,448
49
119
112
45
42,853
2015
18,642
16,476
11,448
49
164
399
45
47,223
2020
21,242
15,618
11,448
49
260
679
45
49,341
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Electricity Generation by Source
Share of Electricity Generation - 2005
Landfill Gas/EFW,
0.5%
Hydro, 0.2%
Nuclear, 47.8%
Other, 0.1%
Wind, 0.2%
Gas/Oil, 3.9%
Coal, 47.3%
 Nuclear and coal contribution
declines 2005-2020 (as share of
total)
 Oil/Gas share more than doubles
 Wind, LFG and EFW reach
almost 2% of supply
 Illinois in-state sales grow
~1.3%/year.
Share of Electricity Generation - 2020
Landfill Gas/EFW,
0.9%
Hydro, 0.2%
 In line with previous forecasts
(LADCO & Shaw reports).
 Historic generation calibrated
to US EIA data.
 Continued strong power
exports from state through 2020.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
Wind, 0.9%
Other, 0.1%
Gas/Oil, 10.4%
Nuclear, 42.6%
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Coal, 44.9%
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Transportation Sector - Demand
Growth in
passenger
transportation
demand and energy
use in line with EIA
forecasts. Freight
energy use grows
more quickly than for
passenger vehicles.

Bulk of passenger
energy use for
personal vehicles.
1990-2005
0.5%
2.9%
2005-2020
0.3%
2.3%
Passenger Transportation Energy Use
1,000
900
800
Energy Use (TBtu/year)

Average Annual Transportation Demand Growth
Passenger
Freight
700
600
Plane
Bus
500
Motorcycle
Passenger vehicle
400
300
200
100
1990
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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2005
2020
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Transportation Sector
Passenger Vehicle Efficiency (miles/gallon)
2000
Small Cars
31.6
Mid-Size Cars
26.8
Large Cars
20.8
Diesel Trucks
20.8
2010
32.9
29.3
21.4
21.7
2020
31.6
28.6
21.0
21.4
2010
7.2
6.0
2020
7.1
6.1
Freight Vehicle Efficiency (miles/gallon)
2000
6.8
5.8
Small Gas Trucks
Mid-Size Gas Trucks
 No major increase in vehicle efficiencies assumed in
Reference Case
 Some minor variations in average fleet efficiency due to
changes in energy prices.
 Model values close to Bureau of Transportation statistics
(average light vehicle efficiency of 30 mpg in 2004).
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Gross Output by Industry Sector - 2005
Mining
0.9%
Food & Tobacco
19.2%
NonFerrous/Smelting &
Refining
4.4%
Petroleum Products
0.2%
Chemicals
15.7%
Other Manufacturing
4.9%
Paper
4.9%
Fabricated Metals
11.9%
Machines
14.1%
Transportation
Equipment
Computers Electric Equipment9.7%
9.7%
4.4%
 Energy intensive industries (in red) represent 27% of GO in 2005.
 Energy use per dollar output in these industries is typically an order of
magnitude higher than in other/general manufacturing.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Gross Output by Industry Sector - 2020
Mining
0.8%
Other Manufacturing
Food & Tobacco
4.9%
14.9%
NonFerrous/Smelting &
Refining
3.3%
13.7%
Paper
3.9%
Fabricated Metals
9.9%
Machines
11.0%
Petroleum Products
0.2%
Chemicals
Computers
24.7%
Transportation
Equipment
8.9%
Electric Equipment
3.9%
 Energy intensive industries (in red) projected to fall from
27% of industrial gross output in 2005 to 22% by 2020.
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Illinois GHG Emissions – Reference Case
Reference Case
350
Total Emissions in 1990:
231 Mt CO 2 e (Source: WRI)
Total - 312 Mt CO2e
300
Gap - 81 Mt CO2e
250
Mt CO2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
Agriculture &
Forestry
Waste &
Wastewater
Power Sector
200
150
Freight Transport
Passenger
Transport
Industrial
100
Commercial
50
Residential
0
2000
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
2005
2010
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2020
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Illinois GHG Emissions by Sector Reference Case
Reference Case
350
Total Emissions in 1990: 231
Mt CO 2 e (Source: WRI)
Total - 312 Mt
CO2e
300
Gap - 81 Mt CO2e
250
Mt CO2e
Target - 231 Mt CO2e
200
Agriculture/
Forestry
Waste &
Wastewater
Power Sector
150
Freight Transport
100
Passenger
Transport
Industrial
50
Commercial
Residential
0
2005
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
2020
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Change in GHG Emissions 2005-2020
Reference Case
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
Change in Emissions 2005-2020 (Mt CO2e)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Power Sector
Waste & Wastewater
Agriculture/ Forestry
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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Illinois GHG Emissions in 2020
Percentage of Total GHG Emissions: 2020
Waste &
Wastewater
1%
Residential
8%
Power Sector
35%
Freight Transport
5%
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
Commercial
4%
Industrial
15%
Passenger
Transport
22%
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Agriculture/Forestry
8%
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Questions?
Revised: Aug. 28, 2007
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