Transcript Document

Learning, skills and crime
reduction
Paul Convery
Director, Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion
www.cesi.org.uk
Contradictions for young
people
• Aspiration to maturity at earlier ages
– “adult” lifestyle pressure
– exposure to risky behaviour
• Achieving economic independence later
– extended educational participation
– later entry into labour market
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Confusions for young people
• Labour market complexity
– more demanding employer requirements
– less tenure and diminished security
• Weakened family and community support
– atypical family structures
– weakened community and informal networks
– family formation undermined by nonemployment
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16-18s outside employment,
training and education (LFS)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
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“NEET” characteristics
All
194,700
(100%)
Male
107,500
(55%)
Female
87,200
(45%)
below VQ2
NEET
All 16-18
54%
30%
56%
32%
52%
27%
no qualifications
NEET
All 16-18
34%
22%
37%
23%
31%
21%
All NEET
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“NEET” characteristics
Classed as “ILO” unemployed
75% of young men
52%, of young women (but a further 25% looking
after family)
Nearly 35,000 (18%) have a disability or
health condition (21% of young men but
only 14% of young women)
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Skills polarisation
• No qualifications down from 25% (1992) to 13% (1999)
• 45% of workforce now have NVQ3+ (was 33% in 1992) – but
no increase in those qualified to level 3
• about 30% are significantly over-educated
• skilled people get even more trained:
– 20% of degree qualified workers regularly receive
employer funded training
– compared with only 8% of those qualified to VQ2 and 3%
with no formal qualifications
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Wage premiums
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Literacy - achievement at NVQ level 1 - 16%
Numeracy - achievement at NVQ level 1 - 26%
GCSEs - 21% over non-qualified
A levels - 17% over GCSEs
With a degree - 28% over A levels
Graduates - 66% over non qualified
– Level 3 is threshold above which earnings exceed
national average
– unskilled earn 30% less than national average
• Women aged 30-44 - premium of degree holders over level
3 is 110% - highest in the OECD
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Average earnings by highest
qualifications held (England)
£600
£500
£400
£300
£200
£100
£0
Level Level Level Level Below No
5
4
3
2
2 quals
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Unemployment rates by highest
qualifications held (England)
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Below
No
2
quals
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Employment rates
Level 3 minimum
No qualifications
80%
55%
Disabled
Ethnic minorities
Fifty plus
Lone parents
47%
58%
66%
52%
Not disabled
Not ethnic minority
All working age
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81%
76%
74.5%
Projected employment in the UK 1999-2010
Change In
numbers
employed
1999-2010
Share of
employment
2010
Mining, energy, agriculture
-137,000
2%
Manufacturing
-713,000
12%
+7,000
6%
Distribution, retail, hospitality
+628,000
28%
Business and other services
+1,774,000
29%
+562,000
23%
+2,127,000
100%
Construction
Public services
Total
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Occupational change UK 1999 - 2010
Elementary
Process, plant & machine
operators
Sales and customer services
Personal services
1
Skilled trades
Administrative & secretarial
Associate professional &
technical
Professionals
-500,000
0
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500,000
1,000,000
Managers
Projected change in demand for qualifications, GB, 1999-2010
employment
change
VQ 4+
VQ 3
VQ 2
VQ 1
No
quals
2,082,000
1,151,000
494,000
354,000
131,000
-48,000
As a % of
new jobs
100%
55%
24%
17%
6%
-2%
% of
current
workforce
qualified to
each NVQ
leve
100%
26%
24%
23%
15%
12%
Total
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Attributes of the new
affluency
• Proportion of jobs requiring degrees risen at
almost 1 percentage point each year
• Upward trend in requirement for generic skills:
computing, writing, problem-solving and
professional communication skills
• Extent and complexity of computer use rising:
"fairly important, very important or essential" in
two thirds of jobs - increasing by nearly 3
percentage points a year
• Internet use: "fairly important, very important or
essential" for more than 1 in 3 workers.
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Skill gap characteristics
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Basic computing skills
Advanced IT skills
Management skills
Other technical and practical skills
Communication skills
Customer handling
Team working
Problem solving
Literacy and numeracy (reported by 25% of
lower/manual skill workplaces)
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Main occupations with skillshortage vacancies
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craft and skilled trades (22% of the total);
associate professional occupations (17%);
sales occupations (13%);
personal service occupations (11%).
Main industries with skill-shortage vacancies:
– craft-intensive construction (12% of the total) and
manufacturing sectors (16%); and
– two large service industries - finance (17%) and
wholesale/retail (17%).
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What needs to change?
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Better delivery system
Partnership and collaboration
Learning from practice
Measurement of success
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Internet
www.cesi.org.uk/talks
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