Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

Presentation for Visioning Day October 30th, 2009 Office Of Institutional Research and Planning

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 For Planning purposes data can help you do three things  Set goals by identifying trends, problems, strengths, opportunities  Inform Strategies by understanding the cause of problems or logistical considerations  Evaluate progress and make corrections

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 But data is just small part.  While data-jockeying is important it’s the syntheses, analysis, application and evaluation of data and information that is at the core of what we need to do.

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 External:     Demographic/workforce forecasts K-12 trends UC/CSU trends Public perceptions of Higher Education

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 Internal   Student Demographics Student Preparation  Student Success and Learning

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 Shifting Forces        Workforce/Skills Gap Economy (short and long term) Funding and Legislation Sustainability Increased Diversity Globalism Changes in the Nature of Learning and the Millennial generation

External: Demographics Population Growth

Population EMSI

2010

ABAG

2019/2020

EMSI ABAG

Change from 2010 to 2020

% Change from 2010 to 2020 EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG

Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol Alameda County Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara 175,303 198,300 181,764 1,466,636 1,549,800 1,586,924 5,090,282 5,272,100 5,590,953 State of California EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.

ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments 37,696,392 n/a 42,854,241 229,900 6,461 31,600 1,705,900 120,288 156,100

3.7% 15.9% 8.2% 10.1%

5,813,500 500,671 n/a 5,157,849 541,400 n/a

9.8% 10.3% 13.7% n/a

External: Demographics

Projected Race/Ethnicity Demographics Over Time by Area 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1263 1347 424 1407 4581 7000 29,210 8,257 43,053 130,654 196619 1240644 4,535,812 1,286,206 2,239,807 371,094 1,158,020 13,394,509 2,057,917 15,574,287 7683 32,883 7,832 47,655 123,057 218677 1402884 5,130,819 1,437,510 2,299,101 361,293 1,213,358 15,303,908 1,971,052 15,464,121 8613 36,927 7,767 53,500 119,308 246828 1587523 5,783,680 1,612,525 2,374,111 Other Asian 364,054 17,406,928 1,367,920 Black or African American Hispanic 1,933,675 15,420,158 White, Non Hispanic Source: EMSI data 2008 2013 2018

External: Labor/Jobs Growth

Labor/Jobs 2010 2019/2020 Change from 2010 to 2020 EMSI ABAG EMSI

Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol Alameda County Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara State of California 152,829 888,167 105,970 712,850 164,735 965,567 3,284,29 6 20,696,4 99 2,564,570 n/a 3,654,481 23,140,653

ABAG

133,400 825,070

EMSI

11,906 77,400 2,989,790 n/a 370,185 2,444,1 54

ABAG

27,430 112,220 425,220 n/a

% Change from 2010 to 2020 EMSI ABAG 7.8% 8.7% 11.3% 11.8% 25.9% 15.7% 16.6% n/a

EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.

ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments

External: Labor

Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Associate Degree

5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500

4,423

2,000 1,500 1,000 500

1,021 879 878 476

0 Registered nurses ($49/hr) Computer support specialists ($27/hr) Computer specialists, all other ($39/hr) Paralegals and legal assistants ($29/hr) Dental hygienists ($49/hr)

402 172

Biological technicians ($21/hr) Medical records and health information technicians ($20/hr)

170 170 152

Interior designers ($22/hr) Veterinary technologists and technicians ($19/hr) Respiratory therapists ($36/hr)

Source: EMSI data

External: Labor

Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Bachelor's Degree

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000

7,215 6,511

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

3,670 2,582 2,528 2,481 2,421 2,171 1,361 1,305

0 Property, real estate, and community association managers ($11/hr) Computer software engineers, applications ($48/hr)

Source: EMSI data

Computer software engineers, systems software ($51/hr) Network systems and data communications analysts ($36/hr) Computer systems analysts ($39/hr) Business operation specialists, all other ($34/hr) Accountants and Personal financial auditors ($29/hr) advisors ($30/hr) Network and computer systems administrators ($41/hr) Elementary school teachers, except special education ($38/hr)

External: k-12 trends

     College Going rates  Statewide it’s decreasing-locally it’s higher Increased Gap between haves and have nots (achievement Gap) Exit exam Increased ESL population Math:  Algebra in 8 th grade

External: k-12 trends

 Concerns over Curriculum gap between high school and College  Cal-Pass research shows students often repeat course in college they already took in high school  This may partly explain why it seems that so many high school graduates are unprepared for college level work.

External: k-12

College Going Rates Las Positas High School Districts

No Public College 33% UC 10% CSU 17% CCC 40%

Source: California Department of Education

External: k-12

Source of First-Time Freshman to Las Positas College

Other California High Schools, 24% Out of State High Schools, 4% Other Bay Area High Schools, 6% High Schools in Other Countries, 5% Other Alameda County High Schools, 3% High Schools in Chabot District, 8%

Source: CLPCCD Institutional Data Base

High Schools in LPC District, 50%

Internal: Local High Schools

HS Grad Year 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 LPC Semester Fall 1997 Fall 1998 Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 2007-2008 Fall 2008 Number of Grads*

1658 1714 1869 1804 1912 2048 1916 2200 2293 2380 2517 2637

Number New Enrollments at LPC Grad year the previous Spring**

356 391 446 576 588 655 646 698 684 645 767 763

% of grads who attended LPC the Fall after HS Graduation 21% 23% 24% 32% 31% 32% 34% 32% 30% 27% Number of New Enrollments at LPC of any Grad Year** % of New LPC Students who graduated HS any year

494 512

44% 45%

551 709 707 779 785 834 811 907

49% 51% 51% 54% 53% 55% 52% 50% 30%

911

51% 29%

926

52% Number of All New Students to LPC**

1112 1126 1131 1403 1385 1456 1470 1516 1556 1606 1769 1767

External: UC/CSU

 Less capacity/budget cuts  More competition  Higher fees

External: Public Perception (Clarus Report)

 Market Assessment Report (March 2007)     The name and existence of LPC is well known 55% of LPC service area would consider attending LPC Considered convenient and affordable Generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge

External: Public Perception (Campus Commons Report)

 Public  Feel a college education is necessary and fear that increasing costs make college out of reach  Support of high education is contingent on maintaining access  Growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money

External: Summary

 Demographic  Continued growth and increased diversity  Workforce   Increase in jobs outpace growth in population Healthcare, technology, business/finance  Must anticipate areas of growth and be nimble enough to quickly respond to needs

External: Summary

 K-12 trends    We draw students for all over…not just our local high schools Almost half of local high school graduates attend LPC Must understand and respond to trends such as achievement gap, differences curriculum and student preparation  Public Perceptions of Higher Education/LPC   In general, growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money. LPC is generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge LPC

30000 25000 20000

Internal: Demographics

LPC Headcounts and Enrollments Fall 1999-Fall 2009 27,360 25,418 29,235 18,287 19,127 20,223 22,376 20,710 20,951 20,847 23,182 15000 10000 5000 6951 7413 7857 8588 7395 7325 7332 7796 8451 9100 Headcount Enrollments 9517 0 Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009

Internal: Demographics

LPC Number of Units Fall 1999-Fall 2009 47% 48% 47% 46% 39% 38% 36% 36% 35% 34% 32%

100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

27% 26% 26% 26% 29% 28% 29% 27% 28% 29% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 31% 34% 34% 37% 32% 36% 38%

Units 20% 10% 0%

Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009

Internal: Demographics

LPC Age Distribution Fall 1999- Fall 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12% 12% 16% 10% 23% 27% 12% 12% 16% 10% 24% 27% 12% 12% 16% 10% 23% 26% 13% 12% 14% 9% 24% 28% 11% 11% 14% 9% 27% 28% 11% 11% 12% 9% 28% 30% 11% 10% 11% 10% 27% 31% 10% 10% 11% 10% 28% 31% 10% 10% 10% 9% 29% 32% 10% 9% 11% 11% 28% 31% 10% 9% 10% 9% 50 or older 31% 40-49 30-39 25-29 20-24 31% 19 or younger Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009

Internal: Demographics

LPC Student Type Fall 1999-Fall 2009 100% 90% 3% 11% 80% 13% 70% 60% 50% 40% 56% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16% Fall 1999 4% 6% 21% 52% 18% 5% 5% 21% 51% 17% 5% 5% 21% 52% 17% Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 19% 56% 19% 4% 22% 53% 21% 4% 22% 54% 21% 22% 55% 20% 21% 56% 21% 21% 56% 20% 20% 57% 21% Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Enrolled in K-12 Returning Student Transfer-In Students Continuing Student New Student

Internal: Demographics

LPC Educational Goal Fall 1999-Fall 2009 100% 90% 80% 24% 9% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 10% 10% 30% 23% 9% 17% 9% 10% 32% 23% 10% 18% 9% 10% 30% 24% 11% 16% 9% 10% 30% 22% 9% 15% 9% 11% 34% 21% 8% 15% 10% 12% 34% 22% 9% 15% 9% 12% 33% 21% 8% 15% 8% 13% 35% 21% 8% 15% 8% 12% 36% 19% 6% 15% 7% 14% 39% 18% 6% Goal undecided 16% 7% 13% Intellectual/cultur al dev.

job related goal 40% Two year assoc without transfr BA without completing AA BA after completing AA Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009

Internal: Demographics

LPC Race/Ethnicity Fall 1999-Fall 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3% 6% 11% 70% 10% Fall 1999 3% 7% 12% 68% 10% Fall 2000 3% 8% 12% 66% 11% 3% 8% 12% 66% 11% 3% 8% 13% 64% 12% Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 3% 9% 13% 62% 13% 4% 9% 14% 59% 14% 3% 10% 15% 56% 16% 3% 11% 16% 54% 16% 4% 11% 16% 52% 17% 4% 11% 17% 53% 15% Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 African American Asian Hispanic White Other unknown

Internal: Demographics

 Growth in enrollment  Traditional college students (full time, young, goal to transfer, never attended college)  Increasing racial/ethnic diversity (Asian and Hispanic populations)

Internal: Student Preparation

Las Positas English Assessment Trends Fall 1998-Fall 2008

College Level: Engl 1A 1 Below: Engl 101A/104 2 Below: Engl 116-Learning Skills 3 Below: Take ESL Test 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Internal: Student Preparation

Las Positas Math Assessment Trends Fall 1998-Fall 2008

College Level: Trig or above 1 Below: Math 55/55A Int. Alg.

2 Below: Math 65/65A Elem. Alg.

3 Below: Math 107 Basic Skills 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Internal: Student Preparation

 Increase in number and proportion of students who require basic skills courses in English and Math (and study skills)  Simultaneous increase in students who have high education goals and expect academic rigor in preparation for transfer

Internal: Success and Leaning -Transfers

Top Six Four-Year Colleges and Universities Transfers 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

UC Berkeley UC Davis CSU East Bay CSU Sacramento San Francisco State San Jose State

20 0 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008

Internal: Success and Learning-Income

Increase in Personal Income After Graduating from a CCC in 2000-01 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1998 1999 CA Median Household Income 2000 2001 2002 CA Per Capita Income 2003 2004 CCC Median Income

Source: ARCC Report www.cccco.edu

Internal: Student Success and Learning

 Core Competencies  Communication     Critical Thinking Creativity and Aesthetics Respect and Responsibility Technology Measured in a number of ways including in class assessments and Student Self reports

Internal: Student Success and Learning

Greatest Self-Reported Gains

Skills I can use in my current or future career Discovering my own potential Developing clear career goals Writing Skills Gathering information from multiple sources Ability to learn on my own, pursue ideas and find info.

Performing to the best of my abilities Understanding myself- abilities, interests, limitations Critical thinking Listening effectively Applying knowledge to new situations to solve problems Ability to set goals and develop strategies to reach them

1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger Mean

3.89

3.84

3.83

3.79

3.79

3.79

3.78

3.78

3.75

3.72

3.72

3.72

Internal: Student Success and Learning

Lowest Self-Reported Gains

Awareness of my civic or community responsibilities Appreciation for the arts and the role art plays in society Using numerical data Appreciation of my role in a democratic society Overall technological literacy Desire to contribute to my community/society Ability to use computers effectively Ability to meet challenges of a rapidly-changing society Ability to read, interpret, and generate charts/graphs Reading skills Mathematical skills and abilities

1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger Mean

3.48

3.49

3.49

3.52

3.54

3.55

3.56

3.58

3.59

3.59

3.60

Internal: Summary

 Student Demographics  LPC has a large proportion of “traditional” students (young, transfer directed, full-time)  Student Preparation   High school students expect high quality education for transfer and workforce training But also need remedial academic and leaning skills support

Internal: Summary

 Student Success and Learning    Graduating from a CCC greatly increases earnings. Student report greatest gains is a broad mix of outcomes that range from academic to affective As with highest gains, lowest gain is a broad mix of academic and affective outcomes. Many of the outcomes concerned with civic engagement and societal contribution are areas in which students report fewer gains.

Shifting Forces: Workforce Gap

 Gap of workers qualified and experienced to replace baby boomers  Over supply of workers for the number of low skilled jobs  Both a demographic and educational trend

Shifting Forces: Economy- Short Term

o Slow recovery o Lag in creation of jobs (Latest UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts double digit unemployment until end of 2011)

Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

 Recovery vs. Reset  Breaking the law: Okun’s law  Growth alone wont save us because the “lost” jobs are not coming back  Long term and profound changes in  Home ownership, consumer spending/saving, availability of credit, investment, business start-ups (which are the first source of new jobs)

Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

 Recovery vs. Reset  Different types of jobs/skills    Longer term training for higher skills jobs Need to shift away from quick in and out training programs Not so much a “labor” gap; more of a skills gap

Shifting Forces: Funding/Legislation

 Decreased funding*  Unreliable funding unless major changes to constitution  Term limits   2/3 budget Redistricting  Unfunded mandates

Shifting Forces: Increased Accountability

 WASC ( Western Association of Schools and Colleges )  ARCC ( Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges )  Increased public scrutiny/sophistication and questioning  Less focus on process and more focus on outcomes and results

Shifting Forces: Sustainability

•Three Bottom Lines

Environment Economy Equity / Community

Shifting Forces: Sustainability

Practices/ Operations -drinking fountains -recycling -building design -solar electric Education certificates -degrees -transfer programs -Infuse sustainable ideas into curriculum Processes/ Human Resources -sustainable processes -hiring the proper number of support staff -Prioritizing initiatives

Shifting Forces: Increased Diversity

o Getting Beyond “Quotas” thinking o Getting beyond “meeting the needs of diverse populations” o Transforming who we are and what we do o Essential workplace/life skill for ourselves and our students

Shifting Forces: Globalism

    Increased competition Increased need for ability to understand different perspectives Delivery methods Ability to adapt, change and learning on own

Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning

 Traditional Instructor provides Information  Student responsible for mastery  Millenial Students have access to information  Students expect instructor to help them master the information

Instructor as source of information Instructor as learning coach

Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning

Instructor is valued as source of information Instructor valued as learning coach What would this mean for professional development, delivery methods, curriculum, pedagogy, classroom management?

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

 Data isn’t about what you know...its about how you make sense of it…how you apply it.

 While important, data is the least interesting part. Analysis, synthesis, evaluation is how the dots get connected.