Transcript Document

Future of Golf – Demographics and
Megatrends in Recreation
James Graham Prusa
ASIAN PACIFIC GOLF SUMMIT
J G Prusa
“To see things in the seed,
that is genius.”
Lao Tzu, Chinese mystic philosopher
J G Prusa
“JAPAN TAKES A BEATING”
By MALCOLM FOSTER
Associated Press
Monday, February 1, 2010
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JAPAN INC
Sony, Toyota, JAL
They all thought they were invincible
Writes about arrogance, over confidence, the ‘group
think’ that blocked advancement
• BUT is this a fair assessment? Were there other
unspoken, underlying reasons?
J G Prusa
Made in USA comeback to bring 2-3M jobs
Consulting group predicts tipping point in China
Updated: Sunday, 30 Oct 2011, 6:01 PM EDT
Published : Friday, 28 Oct 2011, 5:54 PM EDT
Christine Lee, 22News State House Correspondent
BOSTON, Mass. (WWLP) - An analysis by a global consulting
firm headquartered in Massachusetts finds that the U.S.
could gain 2 to 3 million jobs as profitability overseas
reaches a tipping point…
J G Prusa
The Boston Consulting Group
“As labor costs rise in China — along with
steep fuel and transportation costs to ship
merchandise back home — the idea of
making goods in the U.S. starts to look
better to American companies, a recent
study by The Boston Consulting Group
found. U.S. suppliers also are closing the
gap in relative costs by operating more
efficiently here.”
J G Prusa
Made (again) in the USA: The return of American manufacturing
By Nin-Hai Tseng, writer-reporter
June 29, 2011: 10:36 AM ET
“Lost in a sea of troubling economic data is one bright spot: America is once
again competing for -- and winning -- factories and manufacturing operations.”
“Companies like Illinois-based Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest maker of
excavators and bulldozers, is shifting some of its excavator production from
abroad to Texas.”
“According to the report by Accenture, some 61% of manufacturing executives
surveyed by the consultancy said they were considering more closely matching
supply location with demand location by re-shoring manufacturing and supply.”
J G Prusa
Bloomberg
Businessweek
Russia s Population Declines 4.8% Since Collapse of Soviet Union
November 08, 2010
Russia’s population may have declined 4.8 percent since the collapse
of the Soviet Union in 1991, according to the first national census in
eight years.
Shrinking Societies: The Other Population Crisis
August 12, 2010
A Japanese woman's role in society is to give birth, and "all we can do
is ask them to do their best per head," said Hakuo Yanagisawa,
Japan's former health minister. ...
J G Prusa
What is going on in the this global world?
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Demographic mega trends.
1970 Paul Erlich’s “The Population
Bomb”
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UN: 44% of global poplation representing
59 nations have such significant drop in
fertility that they are no longer
SUSTAINABLE!
Global financial crisis?
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J G Prusa
Bloomberg
Businessweek
World's Fastest-Shrinking Countries
By Venessa Wong
Populations in decline
Many people fear that the Earth's population is growing at a
terrifying clip. By the year 2050 the number of people is expected to
increase more than 37 percent, to 9.5 billion. There is concern that
mankind will run out of natural resources, jobs, food, housing, social
services, infrastructure, even physical space. In 25 countries with
more than a million residents, the opposite is true: Their
populations are shrinking dramatically— threatening not only
economic growth, but national prestige.
J G Prusa
No. 1 Japan
No. 13 South Korea
2010 Population: 127,370,000
Forecast 2050 Population: 95,152,000
Percent Decrease: 25.3 percent
2010 Population over age 65: 23 percent
Fertility Rate: 1.4
Net Migration Rate: -1
2010 Population: 48,875,000
Forecast 2050 Population: 42,343,000
Percent Decrease: 13.4 percent
2010 Population over age 65: 11 percent
Fertility Rate: 1.2
Net Migration Rate: 1
No. 16 Germany
No. 18 Russia
2010 Population: 81,624,000
Forecast 2050 Population: 71,510,000
Percent Decrease: 12.4 percent
2010 Population over age 65: 20 percent
Fertility Rate: 1.3
Net Migration Rate: -1
2010 Population: 141,920,000
Forecast 2050 Population: 126,674,000
Percent Decrease: 10.7 percent
2010 Population over age 65: 13 percent
Fertility Rate: 1.5
Net Migration Rate: 2
No. 24 Taiwan
2010 Population: 23,162,000
Forecast 2050 Population: 21,472,000
Percent Decrease: 7.3 percent
2010 Population over age 65: 11 percent
Fertility Rate: 1
Net Migration Rate: 2
J G Prusa
THE OTHER OF TOP 25…
No. 2 Ukraine
No. 3 Georgia
No. 4 Bulgaria
No. 5 Bosnia-Herzegovina
No. 6 Latvia
No. 9 Poland
No. 10 Moldova
No. 11 Romania
No. 12 Cuba
No. 14 Croatia
No. 15 Belarus
No. 19 Slovakia
No. 20 Hungary
No. 21 Macedonia
No. 22 Slovenia
No. 23 Estonia
No. 25 Puerto Rico *
J G Prusa
FLASHBACK…
National Golf Foundation (NGF):
• 1950-1970s A general population of
10,000 required for support per 18holes
• We operated on that assumption well
into the 1980s
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USA Post War Baby Boom
80 million baby boomers followed by only 65 million from generation "X".
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?? BUT…
Time became more scarce!
• Between 1969 and 1987 the average
American worked an extra month per
year.
• From 1975 to 2000 it was an astounding
two months per year!
• = SCARCITY of free time for recreation.
J G Prusa
?? BUT…
Time became more scarce!
• There was an explosion of recreation
activities competing with golf – but it
grew – the USA Post War Baby Boom.
• Now it is OVER – aging Boomers
• Good news: USA has a stable fertility
rate above 2.0
J G Prusa
J G Prusa
How does all this bode for the future?
• East Asia is in trouble. Japan’s
economic fate is sealed.
How does all this bode for the future?
• East Asia is in trouble. Japan’s
economic fate is sealed.
• Europe is in trouble.
• Korea is 10 years behind Japan – WHY?
• China will age before it gets rich.
• India has a grim challenge similar to
China.
• Today 60% of global population is in
temperate latitudes
• 2050 60% will be in tropical latitudes. J G Prusa
J G Prusa
How does all this bode for the future?
• Korea
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How does all this bode for the future?
• China:
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How does all this bode for the future?
• Developing World:
How does all this bode for the future?
• Southeast Asia’s economic future is
bright.
• Philippines a ‘poor country?’ Fertility
demographic power house assures a
future economy.
J G Prusa
J G Prusa
How does all this bode for the future?
• Philippines:
Learn from the past…
• Industrial Revolution demographic
trends – rural to urban.
• = A great LIBERALIZATION of social
behaviors.
• Reaction was the Victorian Age.
• Higher ‘education,’ scarcity of time =
lower fertility
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=> Narcissus
J G Prusa
Conclusions…
• Recreation and hospitality face great
challenges
• Reduced leisure time
• Reduced disposable incomes
• Aging populations
• Shifts of our traditional customer bases
• Greater competition
• Labor costs
• Access issues
J G Prusa
Conclusions…
• Increased pressures on maintenance
expenses
• Potable water scarcity (Milt to Asia!)
• We need to wake up and focus on
developing new golfers
• We need to multi-task, multi-think,
multi-discipline – less narrow education
• ABOVE ALL, we need to see
these things – “in the SEEDS”
J G Prusa
My presentations will be posted to
my web site at:
www.PrusaAssociates.com
J G Prusa