Transcript Kein Folientitel - University of Leeds

Kulturwissenschaftliches
Institut
Gerhard Bosch
The Changing Nature of Work:
Comparative Perspectives
THE FUTURE OF WORK:
An International Symposium
ESRC Future of Work Programme
London, 23-24 June 2003
Prof. Dr. Gerhard Bosch
Institut Arbeit und Technik, Munscheidstr. 14, D - 45886 Gelsenkirchen
Tel: +49 209/1707147, Fax: +49 209/1707124, email: [email protected]
Gerhard Bosch
Wuppertal Institut für
Klima, Umwelt, Energie
Institut Arbeit
und Technik
Institut Arbeit und Technik
Institut Arbeit und Technik
Wissenschaftszentrum
Nordrhein-Westfalen
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The Changing Nature of Work: Comparative Perspectives
Gerhard Bosch
1
Changes in the labour market
2
Myth in the discussion on education and work
3
Removing barriers lifelong learning
4
Conclusions
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Structure of the Presentation
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1.
Changes in the labour market
Old technologies require more investments in tangibles
(railroadification).
The new more knowledge-based technologies require more
investment in intangibles.
The relation between the stock of investments in tangibles and
intangibles changed from 2 to 1 in the 20's to 1 to 1 in the 90's.
Figure 1:
US Capital Stocks
Billions of Dollars
6075
1929
tangible
3251
1948
(structures and equipment, inventories, material resources)
non-tangible (education and training, health and safety mobility, R&D)
8120
5940
1973
17490
17349
1990
Fig. 1
28525
32819
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1.1 1st Trend: Investments in intangibles are becoming more
important than investments in tangibles
Source: Abramovitz, M., David, P. 1996: Employment and Growth in the Knowledge-based Economy. OECD
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Changes in the labour market
1.2 2nd Trend: Education is getting more and more
the entry ticket into the labour market
The higher the skill level the higher the employment rate.
Fig. 2
Low education means more and more exclusion from the labour market.
Figure 2:
Employment rate of men and women (25 - 54 years)
by educational attainment in the EU 15, 1997
79
LOW
48
MIDDLE
HIGH
86,3
68,3
Women
91,2
81,1
Source: European Commission, Employment rates report Luxemburg 1998
Gerhard Bosch
Men
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1.
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Changes in the labour market
1.3 3rd Trend: Working hours differ increasingly
by educational attainment
The higher the skill level the longer the working hours.
Fig. 3
„Brain operating hours" are becoming more important than
machine operating hours.
Skill shortages have been reduced by increase in working hours.
Low skilled work is less and less utilised.
Figure 3:
Actual weekly working hours in West Germany
Change
1984 - 1997
- 12,5%
1984
1997
Un- and semiskilled
- 4,8% Basic vocational qualification
Intermediate vocational
+ 3,5%
training (Masters etc)
+ 3,0%
Higher tertiary education
- 4,3%
Total
35,9
31,4
39,2
37,3
43,2
44,7
43,4
44,7
39,4
37,7
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1.
Source: Socio-Economic panel, own calculations
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1.
Changes in the labour market
 Individual returns: increase of wages
(6,5% per additional year of schooling in EU)
 Macroeconomic returns:
(a) increase of aggregate productivity
(5% on impact/ a further 5% in the long run in EU)
(b) faster technological change
 Social cohesion: reduction of inequality and social
distance improves economic performance
Caution: Most data refer to quantity of formal schooling.
Quality indicators of learning and informal learning
also shows positive effects.
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1.4 Positive Returns to Human Capital Investments
Source: EU 2003, Human capital in a global and knowledge based economy, Luxembourg
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1.
Changes in the labour market

Higher individual returns in countries with deregulated labour markets
(returns on additional year of schooling in Scandinavia 4% and in UK 12%)

Neoclassical explanation: more effective pay scales which reflect
productivity differences more closely in deregulated markets

Alternative explanations: underinvestment in training in deregulated
economies, more polarised skill structures and skill shortages Fig. 4

Human-capital-paradox: in spite of high monetary incentives for
investments due to high income inequality low investment of low skilled
Explanation of the paradox:  high investment risk because of
high dispersion of returns
 long working hours of low skilled
 low incomes and saving rates
 tayloristic work organization
 lack of formal pathways for low skilled
 high social distance
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1.5 The Human-Capital-Paradox
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45
High school
16
30
College, Associate Degree
Vocational training
69
17
Bachelor's degree
7
USA
Master or higher
8
8
Germany
Source: Freeman, R.B., Schettkat, R. (1998): Low Wages Services: interpreting the US-German
difference. Paper to the LOWER Conference Groningen. The Netherlands. Nov. 19-21
Gerhard Bosch
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Educational levels in West Germany and the USA, 1989
Figure 4:
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2.
Myths in the discussion on education and work

Most of the general skills (languages, mathematics)
last a whole life, if they are used.
This is also true for the social skills.

Basic vocational training have a long half-life.

Specific vocational skills have a decreasing half-life.
Conclusion:  General skills have to be learned early.
 Broad vocational skills in initial vocational training.
 More further training to fresh up and extend specific
vocational training.
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2.1 1st Myth: The half-life of skills and knowledge is declining
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Myths in the discussion on education and work
2.2 2nd Myth: One should be prepared to change
occupation several times in a work life.

Might be true if occupations are very specific and are mainly
based on-the-job training

Broad occupations make it possible to cope with structural
change (further training is required)

Multiple occupation changes waste resource. This is as if
somebody who has thrown 35 with the dices has to start
again at 1
Conclusion:
Gerhard Bosch
Develop broad occupations
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2.
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Myths in the discussion on education and work
2.3 3rd Myth: Technological development is progressing so fast
that training based on fixed curricula and certificates
are no longer viable.

Some early adopters and computer kids may learn only
by doing or on-the-job

If their are no general standards for curricula and
certificates there will be de-facto standards of Microsoft,
SAP, Cisco etc. Skills are not transferable
Conclusion:
Gerhard Bosch
Because of fast changes learning has to be changed:
 Traditional classroom teaching has to be combined
with learning in real projects
 Curricula have to be opened for changes
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2.
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Myths in the discussion on education and work
2.4 4th Myth: Training must be increasingly oriented
along the needs of the companies.

Many companies, especially SME‘s, are planning on a
short-term basis and do not know their needs in the future

Asking them about their need is like „A blind person is
asking another blind person about the way"

Not all companies are innovators: their needs may
be formed by old technologies and traditional forms
of work organisation

Many future companies are not yet in existence
Conclusion:
Gerhard Bosch
We need a pro-active supply side-approach
of identifying future needs and translating
these needs into curricula
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2.
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Removing barriers lifelong learning
3.1 Market failure :
Internalise training-incentives in markets
Incentives could be:
A. In the product market:
Innovation policy Fig. 5
Prevailing wage laws Fig. 6
Minimum training requirements for bids
Licensing (such as for doctors, pilots or electricians)
Quality standards for products and services
(as in the German construction industry)
Safety or liability regulations
B. In the labour market:
Employment protection which establishes long term relations
between employer and employee create incentives for training
(job tenure is increasing in most countries)
Avoiding free rider problem by introducing a levy Ex. Gas
(as in the Danish apprenticeship system)
Health and safety regulations
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3.
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Business Enterprise Expenditure on R&D in
selected OECD-countries (1981 - 1998)
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
as a percentage of gross value added in the economy
4
Sweden
Finland
Switzerland
Japan
USA
Germany
France
UK
Canada
Netherlands
Italy
3
2
1
0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Source: OECD: Main Science and Technology Indicators (1998/1). National Calculations and Estimates
Gerhard Bosch
1998
*
* estimation
Institut Arbeit und Technik
Figure 5:
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Apprenticeship Training Rates and
Prevailing Wage Laws by State Legal Policy *
* Apprentices as a percent
of journeymen.
4,3%
3,8%
2,8%
2,1%
Repeal States
before repeal
Source:
Gerhard Bosch
States
retaining law
States that
never had law
Repeal States
after repeal
P. Philips: The US: A tale of two cities. In: G. Bosch / P. Philips: Building chaos (Eds.): an
international comparison of deregulation in the construction industry. London: Routledge, 2003
Institut Arbeit und Technik
Figure 6:
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The British gas industry
 Post-privatisation, a severely fragmented industry
total businesses
43.900
total employees
97.000
 No rational employer would wish training.
 Ageing work force more installers over 50 years than under 35 years.
 1999 only 128 entrants into training.
Fig. 7
 state took over training
1999 => 128 new entrants, 2002=> 2500 new entrants, 2004=> 4500 new entrants
Conclusion: Employer financed training was
replaced by state financed training
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Institut Arbeit und Technik
Bad practice:
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Figure 7:
Gas: the skills problem
 Ageing workforce - more installers over 50 than under 35
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Gerhard Bosch
65+
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 1999: 128 entrants!
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
In most countries SME‘s invest less in training than big companies.
REASONS:
Gerhard Bosch
 Money is one but not the major obstacle
 Less need for training (high percentage of
technology appliers)
 Higher risks of investments due to higher
manpower turnover
 Low internal planning capacity
 No economies of scale in training
 Intransparency of training market
 Supply not tailor-made for SME’s
 High specialisation/ internal learning too narrow
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3.2 Underinvestment in Training in SME’s
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
1
Networks
Positive effects:
Problem:
2
•
•
•
•
•
Reduction of planning costs
Economies of scale
Tailor-made-supply
Enlargement of learning possibilities
Networks can develop other activities
(manpower pool, joint bidding etc.)
• Organisation of the network
External help structure
Consultants for temporary support in developing or providing training
3
Combination of (1) and (2)
Both can be financed by contributions, levies or public money
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3.3 Creating incentives for training in SME’s
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning

Pilot Program in Leicestershire & Lincolnshire carried out by the
”Centre for Entreprises” launched in 2002

A mechanism to stimulate business led workforce development in
small companies (5 – 50 employees)

Training advisor of the Centre and ”Training Champion” appointed
by the firm develop ”Training and Development Plan”

Company receives £ 500 after signing the plan /
Centre pays up £ 150 per employee for external training
RESULTS:
Gerhard Bosch




280 Training Champions attended workshops
230 approved training plan
Average 20 employees per business
Average 11 employees per plan
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3.4 Best practice: Small firm development account in UK
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
Major problem:
Intransparency of training market
makes the fit between training and work organisation for
companies difficult (high transaction costs)
Possible solutions
 Generally or broadly recognised certificates
 Certification and quality assurance of providers
Conclusion:
Gerhard Bosch
Both solutions have to be linked.
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3.5 Pathways for individuals and companies
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Training Pathways in the German IT-Industry
Master
of
Engineering
Strategic Professionals
Certified IT Business
Certified IT Technical
Engineer
Engineer
Bachelor
of
Engineering
Operational Professionals
Certified IT
Certified IT
Business
Business
Manager
Consultant
Certified IT
Systems
Manager
Certified IT
Marketing
Manager
Specialists
29 Specialist profiles for 6 IT sections:
Software Developer, Solutions Developer,
Administrator, Co-ordinator, Technician, Advisor
IT
System
Electrician
Vocational Training
IT System
IT System
integration
Support
Specialist
Officer
Source: http://kib-net.de, 2003
Gerhard Bosch
IT
System
Officer
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Figure 8:
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Removing barriers lifelong learning
3.6
Learning forms: Shortcomings of traditional classroom
vocational learning
 For low skilled:
too abstract/difficult to motivate if there is no
concrete output
 For middle and high skilled:
lack of tacit knowledge
 For companies:
classroom teaching plus on-the job-training
afterwards too expensive
 For innovation in the economy:
too slow
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3.
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Basic learning forms in vocational training
Orders
Complex
Products
CustomerOrientation
Small
Products
ProjectOrientation
ProductOrientation
Class RoomOrientation
Gerhard Bosch
Increasing
Work Orientation
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Figure 9:
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
Tayloristic model of firms

Complex organisation and simple jobs.

complexity of the organisation is grounded in the radical split between
"thinking" and "doing"

The organisational memory is based on formal procedures, strong
hierarchies and a professional elite at the top of the firm.

The low skilled are excluded from formal and informal learning
New model of flexible firm

Flexibility by the reintegration of tasks and teamwork

reduction in organisational complexity: coordination and
communication at lower levels of the organisation

This organisation is based on continuous learning
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3.7 Work Organisation (1): Exclusion of the low skilled from learning
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning

Productivity increases only if knowledge is actually used

Motivation to learn often comes from work experience

Important for low skilled: Changes in work organization
(job enrichment/enlargement, rotation) make it possible to learn
step by step
 Research of the European Foundation shows that
traditional forms of work organization still dominate
in EU
PROBLEMS:
 Some countries are far ahead in introducing posttayloristic forms of work organization (S, DK, FIN, NL)
 Even in modernized companies the peripheral
workers are often excluded from learning
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3.8 Work Organisation (2): Crucial role of work organisation
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
 The state and the social partners should promote decentralized forms
of work organization
 Promotion of training for peripheral workers
 Good example: France increased the training levy for temporary
and agency workers from 1,5 to 2% of the gross wage bill
Figure 10:
Employees who have received training over the past 12 months
(by contract)
35
34
31
23
Indefinite
contracts
Fixed-term
contracts
Temporary
agency contracts
All employees
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3.9 Work Organisation (3): CONCLUSIONS
Source: European Foundation: Third European survey on working conditions 2000
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning

Entitlements for sabbaticals as in Sweden

Grants for further education as in Sweden

Saving accounts for life-long learning with subsidies
of the state, own contributions and contributions of
companies (Problems: embeddedness, taxation,
property rights, bankruptcy, use: training vs. early
retirement)
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3.10 Lack of Time and Money: SOLUTIONS
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
Social partners can promote training by agreements on
 standardized curricula and certificates (pathways)
 saving accounts for training
 on special programs to ”promote training for less skilled”
 work organization
 pay scales with incentives for learning
Advantage compared to programs run by the state or the employers:
 better links between theory and practice
 compromise between short term business needs and promotion of employability
 easier implementation on industry level
PROBLEM:
Gerhard Bosch
Unions are marginalised in some countries.
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3.11 Role of social partners (1)
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
Key elements (1):
 The social partners agree that lifelong learning is the key for future
competitiveness of the companies and the employability of the employees.
 Each employee has the right to a regular talk with the employer on
his/her individual training needs.
 Employees in parental leave also have the right to such a talk.
 If there are training needs, an individual training plan will be agreed upon.
 In case there is no agreement the employers and the works
council or in companies with more than 300 employees a
commission (parity of seats) should try to reach an agreement.
 If they do not reach an agreement a representative of the new
"Agency to promote further training" will become a member of the
commission with the right to vote.
 The employer pays the training.
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Role of social partners (2): The Collective Agreement on training in the
engineering industry in Baden Württemberg 2001
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3.
Removing barriers lifelong learning
Key elements (2):

After successful training the employees can claim to use the new skills.

The social partners build up an "Agency to promote further training".
The agency should
 consult companies,
 develop training programmes for un- and semiskilled workers,
 observe the structural change in the industry and propose
training programmes.

Each employee with 5 years tenure is entitled to 3 years unpaid
leave for training.
The IG Metall did not succeed in getting a paid training leave for older
workers to adapt their skills to structural change.
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Role of social partners (3): The Collective Agreement on training in the
engineering industry in Baden Württemberg 2001
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CONCLUSIONS
 Barriers to lifelong learning are found not only in the
education and training system but also in other subsystems of the society (work-organization, labour
and product markets, industrial relations, innovation
policy).
 Removing barriers to learning is a crosscutting task
which requires cooperation of actors from different
subsystems and cannot be left only to education and
training specialists.
 The major challenge is to develop consistent policies
in these different fields.
 Expansion of lifelong learning may increase
inequality and segmentation of labour markets.
Gerhard Bosch
Institut Arbeit und Technik
4.
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