Transcript Large Scale Hydropower, Renewable Energy Adaptation and

Responding to Power Sector
Problems:
The Cogeneration Option
Reliance on Hydro in East Africa
Kenya - 2007
Tanzania - 2008
Geothe
rmal
10%
Hydro
57%
Therma
l
33%
Therm
al
48%
Hydro
52%
Years of Significant Drought (D)
Country
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Burundi
D
D
Djibouti
D
D
Eritrea
D
D
D
D
D
D
Ethiopia
D
D
D
D
D
D
Kenya
D
D
D
D
D
D
Rwanda
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
Sudan
D
Tanzania
D
D
Uganda
D
D
D
Hydro Electric Power Generation in
Kenya
Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
Drought
Source: IEA, 2008
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Hydro Electric Power Generation in
Tanzania
Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
Drought
Source: IEA, 2008
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Drought
Oil prices Nov ’07 – Nov ‘08
• Period of high oil prices coincided with drought in the region
• Drought affected hydro-power generation
• Response option from Governments:
– Use expensive emergency thermal generation to meet
rising demand
Status of Emergency Power Supply
Date
Country
Contract Emerge Percenta
Duration ncy
ge total
Capacity installed
capacity
Estimate
d annual
cost as
% GDP
Drought
Related?
Rwanda
2005
2 years
15
48.4
1.84
Yes
Uganda
2006
2 years
100
41.7
3.29
Yes
Tanzania
2006
2 years
180
20.4
0.96
Yes
Kenya
2006
1 year
100
8.3
1.45
Yes
Source: Eberhard and others ( 2008 )
$$
Impact of Inadequate Power Supply
• Un-reliable supply of electricity
(Fluctuating voltage damages
electrical appliances)
• Increase in cost of electricity
production
– Emergency power generators charge up
to 25 UScents – over 100% increase in
tariffs
– Increase in production costs and cost of
products to end users
– Long term impact of increased cost of
production to power outages could be
loss of jobs, especially for low income
earners
$
Response Options
• Impossible to predict drought
and volatility of the world
petroleum prices, diversifying
electricity generation sources is
the best response option
• Need to look at other energy
options to reduce impact of
drought related power deficits
• Cogeneration – one of the key
response options
Cogeneration Potential in East and
Horn of Africa
Cogen potential as % of total Installed
national power generation Capacity from all
sources
Countries
Ethiopia
4.3%
Kenya
13.9%
Malawi
23.7%
Sudan
20.8%
Swaziland
144.5%
Tanzania
11.1%
Uganda
15.2%
Recommendations for fast tracking
cogeneration – Mauritius model
• Standard Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
could contribute to the success of renewable
based power generation in the region
• Allowing agro-based industries that benefit a
large proportion of the population to participate
in exploiting local energy resources
• Explicit renewables targets which should be
realistic, home-grown and local
• Predetermined feed-in tariffs for renewable
based electricity generation
Feed-in Tariff: Kenya
• Feed in tariff policy for Kenya published
• Open to first 400MW after which likely to be
reviewed
Power plant
capacity (MW)
Firm power
Tariff (US
cts/kWh)
Non firm
power tariff
(US cts/kWh)
<1
12.0
10.0
1-5
10.0
8.0
5-10
8.0
6.0
Wind
<50
9.0
-
Biomass
<40
7.0
4.5
Source
Small
hydro
Feed-in Tariff: Tanzania
• Tariff recently announced by regulator - EWURA
Category
Period
Tariff (US
cents)
Standardised average small NA
power purchase
12
Seasonal adjusted
Aug - Nov
10
Jan – Jul & Dec
14
Feed-in Tariff: Uganda
• Tariff mentioned in the energy policy document
Time of use
Year 1-6
Year 7-20
Peak (1800-2400hrs) (US$/KWh)
12.00
8.00
6.00
4.50
4.10
4.00
7.03
5.25
Shoulder (0600-1800hrs) (US$/KWh)
Off-Peak (0000-0600hrs) (US$/KWh)
Average Tariffs