Transcript Slide 1

Public Attitudes on Mountaintop Removal
Findings from a Survey of 1,315 Likely General Election Voters in
Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Virginia
(Including Oversamples of 150 Likely Voters Each in KY and WV)
Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, Kristin Pondel, and Alex Dunn
Lake Research Partners
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Christine Matthews
Bellwether Research & Consulting
http://www.bellwether-research.com
703.650.5203
Methodology
•
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey that was
conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. The survey reached a
total of 1,315 likely General Election voters in Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee,
and Virginia, including oversamples of 150 likely voters in Kentucky and 150 likely
voters in West Virginia. The survey was conducted July 25th through July 31st,
2011. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.7%.
•
Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a file of registered
voters. The sample was stratified geographically to reflect the expected turnout
of voters in the 2012 General Election. The data were weighted slightly by age,
education, gender, region, and party identification.
•
In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible sampling
error – that is, the results of a survey may differ from those that would be
obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the sampling
error depends upon both the total number of respondents in the survey and the
percentage distribution of responses to a particular question. For example, if a
response to a given question which all respondents answered was 50%, we could
be 95% confident that the true percentage would fall within plus or minus 2.7%
of this percentage, or between 47.3% and 52.7%. Of course, the sampling error is
greater for subgroups.
2
Key Findings
•
Voters across Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Virginia solidly oppose
mountaintop removal coal mining by wide margins and across a host of
demographic and political divides. Three-quarters support fully enforcing—and
even increasing protections in—the Clean Water Act to safeguard streams, rivers,
and lakes in their states from mountaintop removal coal mining. Fully 76% of
voters across these four states support this proposal, including a 62% majority
who feel that way strongly. Just 8% of voters oppose it. Support for this proposal
is far-reaching, encompassing solid majorities of Democrats (86%), independents
(76%), Republicans (71%), and Tea Party supporters (67%).
•
Asked about mountaintop removal outside the context of the Clean Water Act,
38% oppose the practice compared to just 24% who support it, and another 38%
of voters who are unsure. When voters are provided with a brief description of
the practice, opposition takes on majority status and garners noticeable intensity.
That description is as follows: “coal companies in [STATE] mine coal from
mountains through a process called mountaintop removal mining where the top
of a mountain is removed to extract the coal and waste is disposed in nearby
valleys and streams”. In this scenario, fully 57% oppose mountaintop removal
and with noticeable intensity (42% strongly oppose), compared to just 20% who
support it (10% strongly). On this measure, too, public opinion crosses typical
political boundaries, including 64% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and even
a 51% majority of Republicans.
3
Key Findings
•
Efforts to associate opponents of mountaintop removal with economic costs fly in
the face of public skepticism. In fact, solid majorities of voters in these
Appalachian states believe either that “environmental protections are often good
for the economy” (40%) or “have little or no impact on the economy” (20%). Just
one-quarter of voters (25%) believes that “environmental protections are often
bad for the economy”.
•
Perhaps it is not surprising then that simulating an engaged debate over
mountaintop removal results in a 2:1 ratio of opposition to support, with fully
half of voters opposed (50%, including 34% strong oppose) and just 27% in favor
of the practice (including 14% strong support).
•
In addition, this is a voting issue in these states, as the electorate here is
overwhelmingly less likely to support elected officials who are in favor of
weakening environmental regulations on mountaintop removal mining (48% less
likely, 15% more likely, 37% no difference). By the same token, these voters are
prepared to reward elected officials who support strengthening environmental
regulations on mountaintop removal mining (48% more likely, 14% more likely,
38% no difference).
4
Voters from the heart of Appalachia have negative opinions of strip mining and
mountaintop removal mining. While these voters have more positive associations with
coal mining in general, it is noteworthy that non-profit environmental organizations are
both more popular and less polarizing in the region than the coal companies themselves.
Favorability
Unfavorable
21
Coal Mining
Barack Obama
50
28
Mining Companies
61
24
20
Coal Companies
Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining
7
36
Non-Profit Environmental Organizations
Strip Mining
Favorable
42
Net
NO/NH
+40
18
-8
8
10
20
49
+29
31
26
10
20
47
+21
27
24
10 18
48
+24
28
-15
32
-19
40
41
26
11
39
25
10
26
20
Darker colors used to represent intensity.
Now I'd like to ask you about some organizations and issues. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable,
SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the organization
and issue but do not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of the organization and issue, just say so,
and we will move on.
5
Across the four states, pluralities of voters have unfavorable opinions of
mountaintop removal mining. While voters in Virginia and West Virginia
are the most critical of the practice, Kentucky voters are closer to divided,
and fully half of voters in Tennessee have no impression of the issue.
MTR Favorability by State
Unfavorable
39
Total
West Virginia
45
10
22
44
21
29
20
18
30
36
Tennessee
Virginia
25
33
Kentucky
Favorable
32
15
7
7
31
14
17
Net
NO/NH
-19
40
-1
35
-15
24
-22
50
-26
39
Darker colors used to represent intensity.
Now I'd like to ask you about some organizations and issues. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable,
SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the organization and issue
but do not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of the organization and issue, just say so, we will move on.
6
Appalachian voters recognize environmental degradation as a nationwide
problem. They are less likely to characterize their own states in such
critical terms, though few believe the quality of their state’s environment
has improved.
Quality of the Environment...
In the United States
In Your State
55
-26
43
37
-3
22
19
17
4
3
Gotten
Better
Gotten
Worse
Stayed
About the
Same
DK
Gotten
Better
Gotten
Worse
Darker colors used to indicate intensity.
Overall, do you think the quality of the environment in the United States (your state) has gotten better, stayed about the
same, or gotten worse?
Stayed
About the
Same
DK
7
Three-quarters of voters in Appalachia support fully enforcing—and even
increasing protections in—the Clean Water Act to safeguard streams,
rivers, and lakes in their states from mountaintop removal coal mining.
Stance on Using the Clean Water Act to Safeguard Streams, Rivers, and Lakes
Increase Protections in CWA
Fully Enforce CWA
74
+66
59
8
5
Favor
78
Oppose
Darker colors used to indicate intensity.
18
Don't
Know/Not
Sure
+70
64
9
4
Favor
Oppose
13
Don't
Know/Not
Sure
8
And would you favor or oppose fully enforcing (increasing protections in) the Clean Water Act to safeguard streams, rivers,
and lakes in [STATE] from mountaintop removal coal mining, or aren’t you sure?
Opposition to mountaintop removal mining outpaces support by a solid
double-digit margin. When voters are provided with a brief description of the
practice, opposition takes on majority status and garners noticeable intensity.
Stance on Mountaintop Removal Mining
Combined
*Uninformed
*Informed
57
+26
22
48
+14 38
34
10
Favor
+38
42
24
27
11
Oppose
Favor
20
10
Oppose
Favor
Oppose
*Each question asked of ½ the sample.
Darker colors used to indicate intensity.
As you may know, coal companies in [STATE] mine coal from mountains through a process called mountaintop removal mining
(where the top of a mountain is removed to extract the coal and waste is disposed in nearby valleys and streams). Do you
favor or oppose mountaintop removal mining or are you undecided?
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Opposition to
mountaintop
removal mining
transcends typical
gender,
educational,
partisan, and
regional divides.
Women, collegeeducated voters,
Democrats, and
Virginians are
among the groups
who register the
greatest
opposition to the
practice.
Combined Initial Ballot Contours
Total
48
22
Oppose
Men (48%)
Women (52%)
Non-college men (28%)
Non-college women (28%)
College men (19%)
College women (23%)
46
49
38
47
59
53
Democrats (33%)
Independents (27%)
Republicans (35%)
54
47
44
Kentucky (21%)
West Virginia (8%)
Tennessee (29%)
Virginia (42%)
43
48
45
51
Net
26
Favor
29
15
34
33
15
23
15
17
22
26
30
31
18
18
17
5
32
36
37
37
25
18
13
17
27
33
10
Mountaintop removal is a voting issue to those throughout Appalachia. Nearly half of voters,
including a majority of Virginians, would be more likely to support an official who favored
strengthening environmental regulations on mountaintop removal mining, outnumbering
those who would be less likely to support that official by a ratio of more than 3:1.
Likelihood to Support By State
Much More Likely %
(Somewhat/Much More Likely %):
•Virginia – 28% (55%)
•Tennessee – 25% (40%)
•West Virginia – 24% (39%)
•Kentucky – 23% (47%)
Likelihood to Support Official Who Favored Strengthening MTR
Restrictions
48
+33
38
14
26
Somewhat/Much More
Likely
7
Somewhat/Much Less
Likely
Darker colors used to represent intensity.
Suppose an elected official was in favor of strengthening environmental regulations on mountaintop removal mining? Would
that make you more or less likely to support that elected official, or wouldn’t it make any difference?
No Difference
11
An equal number of voters, including a solid majority of West Virginians, is willing to
hold their elected officials accountable for weakening environmental regulations on
mountaintop removal mining, making it imperative for elected officials and candidates
to get on the right side of public opinion on this issue.
Likelihood to Support Official Who Favored Weakening MTR
Restrictions
-33
15
9
Somewhat/Much More
Likely
Likelihood to Support By State
Much Less Likely % (Somewhat/Much Less Likely %):
•West Virginia – 36% (56%)
•Virginia – 33% (49%)
•Kentucky – 27% (46%)
•Tennessee – 26% (46%)
48
37
30
Somewhat/Much Less
Likely
No Difference
Darker colors used to represent intensity.
Suppose an elected official was in favor of weakening environmental regulations on mountaintop removal mining? Would that
make you more or less likely to support that elected official, or wouldn’t it make any difference?
12
Efforts to associate opponents of mountaintop removal with economic
loss are met with a healthy dose of public skepticism. In fact, majorities
of voters across Appalachia believe environmental protections either
benefit the economy or have no real impact.
Economic Impact of Environmental Protections
60
40
20
Often Good
Often Little or No
Impact
25
14
Often Bad
None Of The Above/DK
13
And which of the following statements comes closer to your own point of view: Environmental protections are often good for
the economy, are often bad for the economy, often have little or no impact on the economy?
Simulating an engaged debate with each side communicating its most persuasive
message, fully half of voters oppose mountaintop removal mining by a margin of
nearly 2:1, while a quarter is undecided.
Stance on Mountaintop Removal After Arguments
+23
50
27
23
34
14
Favor
Oppose
Darker colors used to represent intensity.
Sometimes over the course of a survey like this people change their minds. Do you favor or oppose mountaintop removal
mining or are you unsure?
Don't Know
14
Mountaintop Removal Arguments
Pro-MTR Message
• (Some/Other) people say that coal is an important part of America’s economy
and national security, and killing jobs is the wrong thing to do in this
recession. Nearly half of all electricity produced in the U.S. is from coal, and
increasing coal mining and using the most efficient methods frees America
from our dependence on foreign oil, keeps energy costs low, grows jobs and
the local economy.
Anti-MTR Message
• (Some/Other) people believe mountaintop removal is bad for the economy
and the environment and is causing ongoing harm to nearby communities,
including increasing the number of birth defects and other serious health
conditions. Mountaintop removal replaces workers with machines and
explosives. It has filled nearly 2,000 miles of Appalachian streams with billions
of tons of mining waste, killing wildlife and destroying forests.
15
Voters show little
inclination to shift
from their initial
opposition to the
issue,
underscoring the
solidity of their
views. Women,
college-educated
voters, Democrats,
and Virginians
remain among the
groups who
oppose
mountaintop
removal mining by
the largest
margins.
Final Ballot Contours
50
Total
Oppose
50
50
Men (48%)
Women (52%)
Non-college men (28%)
Non-college women (28%)
College men (19%)
College women (23%)
Democrats (33%)
Independents (27%)
Republicans (35%)
Kentucky (21%)
West Virginia (8%)
Tennessee (29%)
Virginia (42%)
Net
46
46
58
57
59
50
46
44
45
47
56
27
23
31
23
19
Favor
34
22
28
24
24
25
31
35
38
22
23
28
12
25
30
32
35
25
15
9
7
25
33
16
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Celinda Lake
[email protected]
Daniel Gotoff
[email protected]
Kristin Pondel
[email protected]
Alex Dunn
[email protected]
Bellwether-Research.com
703.650.5203
Christine Matthews
[email protected]