Transcript Implementation Plan for the AMY modeling activity

Change of program
• Implementation Plan. T. Satomura
• Current status of and contribution by NICAM.
T. Matsuno & T. Nasuno (~ 20 min)
• Comments. J. Shukla
• Discussion
• Break
Implementation Plan for the
AMY modeling activity
- summary and missing items in draft-
T. Satomura
AMY objectives related to model
• Coordinated efforts on modeling and prediction
experiments are required.
– Target area (anywhere?) and period (when IOP?)
• Related AMY objectives are
– Determining the predictability of the Asian monsoon on
intraseasonal and seasonal time scales.
– Determining the roles of land initialization in prediction of
warm season precipitation especially over the land.
– Development of a hydro-meteorological prediction system
(with lead time up to a season) in Southeast Asia.
– Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multi-timescale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual
Modeling activity is grouped into
• AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO
• Seasonal prediction/predictability
• High-resolution model and development
of hydro-met prediction system
• Regional reanalysis: with data group?
AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO
• We should focus on improved representation of convection in models,
design diagnostic studies for the behavior of convection in models, with
appropriate observations to support model improvement of convection.
• In order to determine predictability and predictive skills of the Asian
monsoon on intraseasonal time scales, monitoring and assessment of real
time medium/extended range (1-30 days) predictions of the MJO using
CGCM will be continued (BMR).
• Short-term simulations up to seasonal change using a global cloud
resolving model will be accomplished and help understanding roles of
convection in monsoon ISO including MJO and tropical cyclogenesis.
• Taking advantage of metrics for diagnostic analysis.
• Encouraging an organized effort to pursue prediction of monsoon ISO. For
boreal summer and winter monsoon onset, active/break phases and retreat,
both AGCMs and coupled GCMs can be used. Both hindcast and real time
prediction are encouraged.
• Efforts to encourage operation centers doing organized prediction
experiments of MJO and MISO.
Seasonal prediction/predictability
• Improve atmosphere-ocean initial conditions and develop coupled oceanatmosphere-land data assimilation.
• Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that use new satellite
observations and Argo observations. (Global & regional)
• Promote model and observation studies for understanding of predictability
of monsoon. Particular importance is to examine impact of land-ocean
initialization on monthly to seasonal prediction.
• Consider making an organized analysis of existing hindcast datasets
through APCC/CliPAS project and the planned WCRP Task Force on
Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project
(CHFP), identifying a range of suitable metrics relating to the AAM for
application to the outputs
– To assess seasonal prediction skills and identify common weakness of the
current dynamic predictions of the Asian monsoon
– To determine the predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole which is an objective of
the Indian Ocean Panel
– To study the role of the MJO in the onset of the (1997) El Niño, which is a joint
effort between AAMP and Pacific Panel (PP).
continued
• To propose of a coordinated hindcast experiment within the
Asian monsoon community on the impact of land surface
initialization and land-atmosphere interaction on the
prediction of Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the
continental regions to determine the roles of land
initialization in continental seasonal rainfall prediction.
• Using CGCMs, predictability of coupled variability in Indian
Ocean (including IOD, oceanic ENSO teleconnections, and
monsoon/ENSO interaction) and its sensitivity to ocean and
land initial conditions will be determined. Impact of ocean
assimilation system on prediction of ENSO, IOD, ENSOmonsoon interaction and monsoon onset will be also studied.
The engaged models in this direction are POAMA, MRICGCM and so on. Regional modeling activity in the same
direction will be also continued.
High-resolution models and hydro-met pred. system
• Process studies on geographical variation of monsoon rainfall in time
scales from diurnal to intraseasonal ranges by RM and HR-GCM.
– Mechanisms and processes for the onset and maintenance of the summer
monsoon.
– Diurnal variations of summer convection.
– Short-term climate simulation of summer rainfall.
– Climate change scenarios for summer rainfall.
– Mechanisms and processes for the winter monsoon over South China, South
Asia and Southeast Asia.
– Local climate and its connections to ENSO and Indian dipole mode.
– MJO and its interaction with shorter/smaller scales over maritime continent.
• By using very high resolution AGCMs
– Extreme event projection and evaluation and reduction of uncertainty in global
warming projection
– Prediction and evaluatation of disaster environment
– Assessment climate-change impacts on flood risk and its reduction measures
on global and local scales
• Using a global cloud-resolving model (ex. NICAM), short-term simulations
up to season will be accomplished to understand hydro-meteorological
systems.
continued
• It is recommended that coordinated multi-high resolution
model ensemble experiments be organized to investigate
sub-seasonal to interannual factors that influence extreme
events, such as tropical cyclones, severe droughts,
devastating floods. The propose by S. Schubert at NASA
forms a very useful starting point for developing high
resolution modeling activity.
• Encourage application of regional models to sensitivity
studies of parameterization schemes and to the monsoon
prediction problem and monsoon climate change issues.
• Utilize regional climate models to generating local
information from seasonal prediction and climate change
projection products of global coarse-resolution models for
use in impact assessment
• Study impacts of aerosols on radiation budget and regional
climate
– Direct impacts of aerosols to the monsoon
– Smoke haze model for Asian monsoon region
Summary of missing items in
planning part
• Target areas (SEA? EA? SA?) and periods
(summer? winter? 2008? hindcast?) and themes
(diurnal to ISV?, all time scales?) for coordinated
modeling activity
• Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multitime-scale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual:
now it is difficult. (Possible: among limited timescales or in some regions or by piecewisey)
• Concrete plan to develop hydro-met prediction
system
• Global and regional reanalysis group is not
included (Will Shukla talk?)
• Cooperation wit data analysis groups
Comments by Shukla
• Muti-time scale interaction: difficult
• Need dynamical prediction system
• Need tuning for NICAM
• Analysis of operational NWP (~10d) products
– Onset predictability
– Predictability of disturbances
– Case study using NICAM
• Same for monthly & seasonal products
– Predictability of MJO and ISO (operational, TFSP)
– HR 45d forecasts (NASA, APCC)
• Coordinated seasonal monsoon hindcast
experiments with coupled O-L-A-Chemistry
models (MRI, IAP, Korea, CCSR can)
– Land, vegetation, snow initialization
– Ocean, sea-ice initialization
– Green house gas, aerosol initialization
• Coordinated decadal monsoon predictability
experiments
– Relative importance of internal climate dynamics
versus GHG forcing
– Analysis of AR4 and CMIP mode outputs