Transcript Modeling Coordination

AMY08 Overarching Goal
Advance our understanding of the physical processes
determining the Asian monsoon variability and
predictability,
to improve Asian monsoon predictions on intraseasonal
and seasonal time scales for societal benefits, and
to promote applications in order to support strategies
for sustainable development.
Success in meeting this overarching goal is a significant
contribution to the new WCRP strategic framework.
AMY08 Objectives
(1) Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmospherebiosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction, and aerosolmonsoon interaction in the Asian Monsoon system.
(2) Determine predictability of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal
to interannual time scales, the role of land in continental rainfall
prediction in order to improve seasonal prediction.
(3) Improve physical representation in coupled climate models and
develop data assimilation of the ocean-atmosphere-land
system in monsoon regions.
(4) Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead
time up to a season) in Southeast Asia.
(5) Better understand how human activities in the monsoon Asia
region interact with environment.
AAMP-RM
Application of regional models to sensitivity studies
of parameterization schemes
Generating local information from seasonal
prediction and climate change projection
products of global coarse-resolution models, for
use in impact assessment.
The regional modeling activities may focus on SEA
region for muliti-scale process study and
northeast monsoon variability.
Possible impacts of aerosols on radiation budget
and regional climate shouldl be studied using
within the ARCS-Asia framework. Direct and
indirect effects of aerosols will be evaluated.
CLIVAR/AAMP GM
1) Coordinated coupled model AAM intraseasonal
prediction experiments
(2) Propose new hindcast experiments on the impact of
land surface (experiment) initialization and landatmosphere interaction on the Asian summer monsoon
rainfall in the continental regions in collaboration with
WGSIP and TFSP.
(3) Organize analysis of existing hindcast datasets through
APCC/CliPAS project to in collaboration with TFSP
(a) develop a range of suitable metrics relating to the
AAM
(b) assess the seasonal prediction skills, common
weakness,
(c) determine the predictability of IOD in collaboration
with IOP, and
(d) Role of the MJO in the onset of the El Niño with POP.
(
Modeling/Prediction Coordination
• RM modeling
Aim: Eastablish a hydro-meteorological prediction
system in SEA
Coordinated regional model activity for this purpose
• Global modeling
Aim: Determine roles of land in continental rianfall
prediction
Coordinated AGCM/CGCM monsoon intraseasonal
prediction experiments (Multi-scale interaction in SEA)
• GM-RM Experiments
Aim: Improve seasonal prediction of summer
continental precipitation
Impact of land surface initialization on ASM seasonal
prediction.
Rely on land data reanalysis/assimilation to facilitate
model initialization.
Real time seasnal prediction during AMY.
Steps and Agenda
• Enlarge modleing participating groups
(APCC/CliPAS, MAIRS, MEFSE, EAC, …)
• Small three task force group, leaders
• Experimental designs
• Participanting groups,
• Working group meeting
• Condict experiments and collect outputs,
validation datasets,
• Diagnostic analyes,
• Workshop and publication.