Transcript Environmental Risk: Perception, Voice, and Transfers

Burning tap water
Environmental Risk:
Perception, Voice, and Transfers
Todd Rasmussen
The University of Georgia
www.hydrology.uga.edu
Annual Death Risks
(Crouch and Wilson, 1982)
Motor Vehicles
Falls
Drowning
Fires
Firearms
Electrocution
T ornados
Floods
Lightning
Animal bite/sting
T ime to 1:1,000,000
1.5 days
6 days
10 days
13 days
36 days
2 months
20 months
20 months
2 years
4 years
Annual Risk
2.E-04
6.E-05
4.E-05
3.E-05
1.E-05
5.E-06
6.E-07
6.E-07
5.E-07
2.E-07
#/million
200
60
40
30
10
5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
Mining
Construction
Agriculture
T ransport
Service/Govt
Manufacturing
T rade
9
14
15
1
3.5
4.5
7
hours
hours
hours
day
days
days
days
1.E-03
6.E-04
6.E-04
4.E-04
1.E-04
8.E-05
5.E-05
1000
600
600
400
100
80
50
Fire Fighting
Coal Mining
Railroad
Police
11
14
1.5
1.5
hours
hours
days
days
8.E-04
6.E-04
2.E-04
2.E-04
800
600
200
200
Other 1 in a Million Risks
• Cosmic Rays
– 1 transcontinental round-trip airplane ride
– Living 1.5 months in Colorado vs. sea level
– Camping at 15,000 feet for 6 days
• Other Radiation
– 20 days of sea-level background radiation
– Living 2.5 months in a brick building
– 1/4 of a chest x-ray
More Cancer Risks
• Eating and Drinking
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–
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40 diet sodas (saccharin)
6 pounds of organic peanut butter (aflatoxins)
180 pints of milk (aflatoxins)
200 gallons of drinking water (Miami/New Orleans)
90 pounds of broiled steak (cancer only)
• Smoking
– 2 cigarettes
• Mortality vs. Morbidity
– Death
– Long-term disability
Cancer site
Number (1990) Percentage
Lung
157,000
15.1%
Colon and rectum
155,000
14.9%
Breast
150,900
14.5%
Prostate
106,000
10.2%
Bladder
49,000
4.7%
Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
35,600
3.4%
Uterus
33,000
3.2%
Oral cavity and pharynx
30,500
2.9%
Pancreas
28,100
2.7%
Leukemia
27,800
2.7%
Melanoma
27,600
2.7%
Kidney
24,000
2.3%
Stomach
23,200
2.2%
Ovary
20,500
2.0%
Brain and other nervous system
15,600
1.5%
Cervix
13,500
1.3%
Liver
13,100
1.3%
Larynx
12,300
1.2%
T hyroid
12,100
1.2%
Multiple Myeloma
11,800
1.1%
Esophagus
10,600
1.0%
Kodgkin's disease
7,400
0.7%
T estis
5,900
0.6%
All other
69,500
6.7%
T OT AL
1,040,000
100.0%
Causes
T obacco
Animal fat, low fiber (alcohol, sedentary life-style)
Ovarian hormones
T estosterone (estrogen)
T obacco
HIV, HT LV-I
Estrogen
T obacco, alcohol
T obacco
x-rays
Ultraviolet light, sunburns
T obacco (analgesics, diuretics)
Salt, tobacco, Helicobacter pylori
Ovulation
T rauma, x-rays
Papillomaviruses
Hepatitis viruses, alcohol (tobacco)
T obacco, alcohol
(Iodine excess)
Alcohol, tobacco
(In utero estrogen)
Multiple
Addictive Drugs: The Cigarette Experience
Thomas C. Schelling, (Science, 1992)
“Cigarettes are among the most addictive substances of abuse and by far the
most deadly. In this country smokers know it and try to stop. Their success
has been dramatic but partial and excruciatingly slow, and until recently quite
uncoerced by government. Cigarettes and nicotine have characteristics distinct
among addictive drugs, and some of these help explain why efforts to quit
smoking are so often frustrated. Nicotine itself is the most interesting
chemical in the treatment of addiction and, in some forms, can pose a
dilemma: compromise by settling for pure nicotine indefinitely, or stay with
cigarettes and keep trying to quit. Nicotine is not alone among addictive drugs
in becoming increasingly identified with the poorer classes.”
Benzene Risk
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When refueling your car, close all car windows
Place plastic mitten on hand
Take and hold a deep breath
Open gas cap, remove nozzle, insert in car, set flow catch
Take five steps upwind before breathing
Dispose of plastic mitten in special trash
Wash skin immediately and thoroughly (at least one minute)
if contacted by gas
Health Risks
• Emphasis on cancer-causing deaths
• Existing or known risks
– Alcohol, tobacco, gasoline
– Burden of proof is on government to demonstrate injury
• New or foreign risks
– New drugs, industrial chemicals
– Burden of proof is on manufacturer to demonstrate safety of
product
• Natural vs. manufactured goods
– Chemical risks are regulated (alar)
– Natural toxins are not (aflatoxins)
Food Hazards
• Significant
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Organic peanut butter (aflatoxins)
Organic celery (psoralens)
Brown mustard (allyl isothiocyanate)
Trans fat
Basil (estragole)
Diet soda (saccharin)
• Minor
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Pesticides
Herbicides
Drinking water
Decaffeinated coffee
Electron micrograph picture
of Aspergillus fumigatus
Risk Envelope:
Plot the number of deaths
for a range of probabilities.
Balancing Risks
• Do 1000 deaths in one crash, equal one death each in 1000
crashes
• Does 1 airline crash = 1000 car crashes?
• For the death penalty, does the death by execution of one
innocent person equal the death of one innocent person by a
criminal?
“Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.”
General George Patten
Automobiles vs. Airplanes
• Incidence of deaths (per year and per mile) are much higher
for automotive travel than for commercial aviation
• Average risk is higher for cars than for aircraft
• Maximum risk is higher for aircraft than for cars
Nuclear vs. Coal
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Nuclear may cause catastrophic deaths
Radiation from western coal can be very high
Global warming from coal, not from nuclear
Mercury poisoning from coal, not from nuclear
Both may cause catastrophic adverse impacts
Risk Comparison
• Decision-making relies not just on the absolute
risk, but on the difference in risk between
alternatives
– Should I ride my bike because the risk of driving is
high?
– Should infants be strapped into safety seats on
airplanes?
– Should I eat a harmful sugar substitute (saccharine)
instead of real sugar?
“To be alive at all involves some risk.” Harold Macmillan
Fatalities per Million Exposure Hours
(Failure Analysis Associates, Inc.)
Skydiving
128.71
Snowmobiling
0.88
Motoring
0.47
General flying
15.58
Motorcycling
8.80
Water skiing
0.28
Scuba diving
1.98
Bicycling
0.26
Living
1.53
Airline flying
0.15
Swimming
1.07
Hunting
0.08
“Only those who risk going too far
can possibly find out how far one can go.” TS Eliot.
Decision Metrics
• Used to choose the “best” alternative
– Smallest average risk
– Smallest maximum risk (Mini-Max)
– Largest minimum risk (Maxi-Min)
– Savage Regret (minimize the regret function)
“Take time to deliberate, but when the time for action has arrived,
stop thinking and go in.” Napoleon Bonaparte
Benefit - Risk Calculation
• Expected present value of all benefits (B) and losses (L)
weighted by their probability of occurrence, p:
R = Sum { B p(B) + L p(L) }
• Present Value is the current value of future benefits or
losses obtained by using a discount factor (which is
normally positive)
State Lottery
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•
•
•
Cost of lottery ticket:
Cost of management:
Amount of prize money:
Amount to state:
$1.00
0.40
0.35
0.25
Value = B - L = $0.35 - $1.00 = - $0.65
“Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have
guided missiles and misguided men.” Martin Luther King, Jr.
Risk Perception
• Outcomes weighted by perceived value of possible losses
and benefits:
R = Sum { B p(B) w(B) - L p(L) w(L) }
• Risk taker:
• Risk neutral:
• Risk adverse:
w(B) > w(L)
w(B) = w(L)
w(B) < w(L)
Ambiguity and Risk Perception
• “Incorporating Uncertainty in Risk Communication and Policy
Analysis and Benefit Evaluation for Environmental Regulation”
by W.K. Viscusi, W.A. Magat, and J. Huber
• This EPA study summarizes the responses of 646 individuals to environmental
risk information involving different forms of risk ambiguity. Section 2
introduces the study and provides the basic elements of the test of whether
ambiguity maters. Section 3 indicates how the order of presentation of the
ambiguous information influences attitudes toward the risk. Section 4
introduces a complication involving the order in which risk studies have been
carried out. Section 5 extends the analysis of ambiguous risk beliefs to consider
the role of skewness in the risk information that is provided. Section 6
summarizes the authors' principal conclusions pertaining to risk ambiguity.
Risk Consumption
• As new technologies reduce adverse effects
– Either total losses (risks) are reduced,
– Or behavior changes to maintain a constant risk
• Examples
– Air bags decrease risk of death in an accident.
• As more air bags are installed, death rate is lower.
• Serious injuries have increased, however.
– Automatic Braking Systems (ABS) decrease
accident risk.
• As more ABS systems are installed, the death rate has not
changed.
• Drivers have adjusted to maintain the same risk.
Environmental Voice
• This results from political and economic influence on
community decisions
• Various interest groups have differential access to media, party,
government, courts, congress, president, and industry.
• The risk function must be weighted by the ability to voice
one’s interests, v:
R = Sum { B p(B) w(B) v(B) - L p(L) w(L) v(L) }
Environmental Racism
• Many pollution sources lie in areas with poor and
disenfranchised populations
• Less capability to affect community governance (less
voice)
• Risks of poverty (malnourishment, crime, drugs, lack of
jobs) means loss function is weighted less heavily
Pollution in US Cities Hits Minorities Hardest
By David Holmstrom
Staff writer for The Christian Science Monitor
Thursday, January 7, 1993
“PARTLY a symbol, partly a protection, the battered chain-link
fence around the dirt and weeds of Kingsley Street park in
Buffalo, N.Y., is a reminder of an unpopular environmental
legacy. United States cities are just beginning to face the fact
that most inner cities are disproportionately riddled with all
kinds of pollution.”
Risk Transfers
• Risk Producers vs. Risk Consumers
– Industrial giants reap benefits while consumers must
accept risk of loss
• R = Sum { B p(B) w(B) v(B)} producers
•
- Sum {L p(L) w(L) v(L)} consumers
– The consumer risk is referred to as the
• Environmental Death Quota
– The consumer risk has to be p(L) < 1:1,000,000
• This risk threshold is used for many decisions
– The number is not acceptable for processed foods,
however.
• The Delaney Clause requires such food to demonstrate no
increased health risk
Local vs. Regional Transfers
• For many years, industries increased the height of the
smokestacks to reduce the effects of air quality problems.
• But increased smokestack heights do not reduce the risk.
• A taller smokestack spreads the risk from populations near
the source to more distant populations.
Waste Disposal
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Geologic disposal is only a short-term solution
Some wastes decompose naturally
Many others remain toxic for thousands of years
This is a risk transfer from the present to future generations
“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.” Dwight D. Eisenhower
Global Trade Issues
• Lax environmental laws and poor democratic traditions
means voice of community often not considered
• Generally, the only concern is whether boundary wastes
will come back into U.S.
• Even within this country, some border populations still
have less voice than others.
Border Environment
• EPA requires air and water pollution abatement in cities,
except along international boundaries.
• This creates two kinds of U.S. citizens, “regular” citizens
and “border” citizens
• No international protocols requiring clean-up to the higher
standard
• Problems include
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Seattle – Vancouver (Puget Sound)
El Paso - Ciudad Jaurez
San Diego – Tijuana
Brownsville - Matamoros
Nogales, Arizona and Sonora
Trust
• Can we be assured that the state benefits and risks are
accurate?
• Who benefits and who suffers if the risks are understated?
• Does the producer of risk have an incentive to understate
the risk and overstate the benefits?
• Do governments / environmental groups / scientists have
an incentive to overstate the risks?
– Avian flu
– Climate change
– Polio
Prisoner’s Dilemma
• Two prisoners are plotting to escape
– Reward for mutual cooperation
• Gain +3 points each if both cooperate and escape
– Punishment for mutual defection
• Lose -1 point each if both defect and tell the guards
– Temptation to defect
• Gain +5 points for defector if the other cooperates
– Sucker’s payoff
• 0 points for cooperator if other defects
Decision Matrix
They
Cooperate
They
Defect
Expected
Outcome
You
Cooperate
+3 / +3
0 / +5
+1.5 / +4
You
Defect
+5 / 0
-1 / -1
+2 / -0.5
Perceived Risk, Trust, and
the Politics of Nuclear Waste
Paul Slovic, James H. Flynn, Mark Layman, (Science, 1991)
“The Department of Energy's program for disposing of high-level radioactive
wastes has been impeded by overwhelming political opposition fueled by
public perceptions of risk. Analysis of these perceptions shows them to be
deeply rooted in images of fear and dread that have been present since the
discovery of radioactivity. The development and use of nuclear weapons linked
these images to reality and the mishandling of radioactive wastes from the
nation's military weapons facilities has contributed toward creating a profound
state of distrust that cannot be erased quickly or easily. Postponing the
permanent repository and employing dry-cask storage of wastes on site would
provide the time necessary for difficult social and political issues to be
resolved.”
High-Level Nuclear Waste
• 70,000 metric tons are destined for Yucca Mountain, NV,
from 40 years of commercial nuclear power production.
• At least this much waste will be generated in the U.S. every
50 years.
• Plutonium half-life = 24,100 years
• Over 98% of the radioactive contaminants could be recycled
instead of buried.
• The recycled wastes could replace fuel, thus eliminating
production wastes/
• Issues of nonpoliferation for reprocessing.
Nuclear Waste Options
1. Continue nuclear power production as is, geologically
dispose of 70,000 metric tonnes every 50 years
2. Stop nuclear power production now, geologically dispose
of 70,000 tonnes of waste
3. Recycle spent fuel, continue production until all spent fuel
is recycled and destroyed.
4. Recycle spent fuel, continue production indefinitely.
Where is Risk Going?
• Non-human (ecosystem) risks:
– Global climate change
– Acid deposition
– Exotic species
• Human risks:
– Epidemiological assessments (cofactors, genetic
predisposition)
– Indoor air pollution (radon, synthetics, biohazards)
– International protocols (air releases, worker exposure,
ocean dumping)