Transcript Cairo - IUAPPA

Relevance of Transport Measures to
Abate Air Pollution in Cairo
Alan Gertler
Division of Atmospheric Sciences
Desert Research Institute
Reno, NV
Presentation Outline
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Background
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Where I left you on Tuesday
CAIP objectives
Source Attribution Results
Control Measures – What can be done?
Emissions inventory – need to verify!
Summary
Tuesday’s Take Home Message
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All of Greater Cairo suffers
from high levels of air
pollution.
PM10 is dominated by soil
dust material, open burning,
and mobile source emissions.
PM2.5 is dominated by mobile
source emissions, open
burning, and secondary
species.
Smelters are the dominant
source of airborne lead.
Sources other than
transportation activities need
to be addressed.
CAIP Objectives
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Improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions from cars.
– Instituted an I/M program.
Reduce particulate emissions from buses.
– Imported CNG buses.
Reduce airborne lead and PM emissions from smelters.
– Shutdown and moved smelters.
Institute an air quality monitoring and analysis program.
– 36 sites but only PM and Pb.
Initiate a public awareness and communications program.
– Website and other activities
Identify and implement additional initiatives to support air pollution
reductions in Cairo.
– Source attribution study, episode forecasting, training.
Others
NH4Cl
NH4NO3
(NH4)2SO4
Lead Smelters
Open Burning
Heavy Oil
Motor Vehicles
Soil Dust
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Shobra
El Massara
Kaha
Helwan
El Qualaly
0
Al Zamalek
PM10 Mass Concentration (mg/m 3)
PM10 Source Apportionment –
Winter/Fall 1999
Others
NH4Cl
NH4NO3
(NH4)2SO4
Lead Smelters
Open Burning
Heavy Oil
Motor Vehicles
Soil Dust
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Shobra
El Massara
Kaha
Helwan
El Qualaly
0
Al Zamalek
PM2.5 Mass Concentration (mg/m3)
PM2.5 Source Apportionment –
Winter/Fall 1999
2002 PM10 Source Attribution Results
100%
90%
80%
Secondary Nitrate
Secondary Sulfate
Marine
Burning
Motor Vehicles
Oil Combustion
Fe Industry
Cu Smelters
Pb Smelters
Geological Material
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Helwan
Zamalek
Tebbin South
Shobra
El Massara
Kaha
El Qualaly
Basateen
0%
2002 PM2.5 Source Attribution Results
100%
90%
80%
Secondary Nitrate
Secondary Sulfate
Marine
Burning
Motor Vehicles
Oil Combustion
Fe Industry
Cu Smelters
Pb Smelters
Geological Material
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Helwan
Zamalek
Tebbin South
Shobra
El Massara
Kaha
El Qualaly
Basateen
0%
What Measures Could Be Quickly
Implemented?
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Garbage collection – would reduce open
burning.
Industrial controls
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Implement new industrial technologies.
Switch from burning mazout (heavy oil).
Reduce secondary PM precursors such as
NOx, SO2, NH3, Cl.
The Transportation Contribution is
Still Important!
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Direct tailpipe emissions are < 25% of the PM10
(~ 60 u/m3) and < 50% of the PM2.5 in the most
extreme cases (El Qualaly).
Road dust and the NOx and SO2 contribution to
secondary species contributions cannot be
neglected.
When these are considered, the mobile source
contribution is >50% for PM10 and PM2.5.
What Transportation Measures
Should be Implemented?
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Implementing transportation control measures is critical
to obtain healthy air quality levels – START NOW.
Cairo can learn from the experiences of other
Megacities:
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Verify effectiveness of I/M program and, if necessary, modify.
Expand and maintain the fleet of CNG buses.
Regulate emissions from diesel vans commonly used for
passenger transportation.
Encourage newer technology light- and heavy-duty vehicles.
Better quality fuel.
Develop market mechanisms to reduce congestion.
Expand the road system (especially across the Nile).
Address problem of resuspended road dust (road paving, etc.)
Other Suggestions
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Address lack of enforcement of current
regulations.
Convince the government there is a problem.
(There is a frequent turnover of upper level
administrators.)
Measure gas phase pollutants.
Additional Issue – Mobile Source
Inventory
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Comparison of Observed to Modeled Fleet Average CO Emission Factors at Fort
McHenry (1992), Bore 3
18
16
MOBILE4.1
MOBILE5
MOBILE6
X=Y
Modeled EF (g/mi)
14
12
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10
8
6
4
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2
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Observed EF (g/mi)
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Verify the emissions inventory.
US experience: mobile source
emission factor models often
underestimate emissions.
Tunnel studies have shown that
CO and HC can be
underestimated by a factor of 2 to
4, while correctly predicting NOx.
Recent changes in the models
can lead to an overestimate of
emissions.
If the model predicts the
observations, it is probably for the
wrong reasons.
Summary
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The Cairo case differs significantly from the Mexico City
situation – It’s much worse.
There is a need to address garbage burning and
industrial emissions.
Transportation measures are important for future
attainment.
There are few measurements of gaseous species (for
example, no O3 measurements).
Verify effectiveness and implementation of control
strategies.
Evaluate the emissions inventory – especially the
mobile source component.
Acknowledgements
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Sponsor:
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USAID
Chemonics, Intl.
Egyptian Env. Affairs Agency
CAIP Personnel
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David Fratt
Jim Howes
Mohammed Hassan
Mounir Labib
Many others
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DRI Personnel
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Mahmoud Abu-Allaban
Bill Dippel
Mike Keith
Doug Lowenthal
John Sagebiel
Ricky Tropp
EAF (Judy Chow) and
OAL (Barbara Zielinska)