Transcript Slide 1

Session 4.2.
Situation Analysis Step 6
Estimating Severity
of Food Insecurity &
Malnutrition
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Learning Objectives
After this session, participants should be able to:

List various indicators of severity of crisis

Explain the meaning and value of the
“convergence of evidence” concept

Describe the “needs” vs. “food basket cost”
method of estimating the food access gap
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Where are we?
EFSA Process
Adapt conceptual framework & objectives
Prepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sources
Collect, review secondary data
Collect primary data
Conduct situation analysis
Conduct forecast analysis
Analyse response options
Make response recommendations
Prepare report
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Why estimate severity?
 To
ring the alarm if need be:
we must announce if the
situation is severe – or not
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
How do we determine
severity of the situation?
Combination and convergence of findings such as:

Magnitude: No. of individuals/HHs whose lives &
livelihoods are potentially at risk

Size of food access or consumption gap

Historical comparisons: comparing current population
in severe food insecurity with previous situations

Increase in mortality rate (beyond norm for area)

Acute malnutrition rates

Other indicators?
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
The “convergence of
evidence” concept
Comparing different indicators:
a powerful way to determine the severity of a crisis…
…particularly when different indicators lead to the
same conclusion, show same patterns
The difficulty: Multiple sources are used – data only
as good as source collecting them
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Estimating the access gap
One example
 Cost
of minimum
“nutritious” food basket
 Example of East Timor
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Calculating the cost of the
minimum food basket…

Average HH size
Food habits and what constitutes a “nutritional food
basket” – including main sources of micronutrients
Sources of HHs’ food
Cost of each food item
What information
will we need to do
this?



Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Nutritional needs of
7-member family in Dili
ENERGY
PROTEIN
FAT
CALCIUM
IRON
VIT. A
VIT. C
Requirements
kcal
g
g
mg
mg
µg RE
mg
Child <5
1,290
25.5
43.0
400
9
390
20
Child <5
1,290
25.5
43.0
400
9
390
20
Child 5-9
1,980
48.0
42.5
450
16
400
20
Child 10-14
2,210
Child 10-14
2,210
Lactating mother
2,920
Father
TOTAL/DAY
We50.0
need42.1
now to600
figure24out what
550
food
items can
cover24these
50.0 42.1
600
550
nutritional needs
25
25
69.6
64.9
600
17
850
50
2,230
49.6
42.5
400
24
570
30
14,130
320
316
3,450
123
3,700
190
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Minimum cost of nutritious food
basket for 7-member family in Dili
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Nutritious basket
for 7-member
family in Dili
Yellow maize
2
3
Daily needs
(grams)
Monthly
needs
(kgs)
4
5
Cost per
kg
Monthly
cost of family
basket
500
15.00
0.65
9.75
1,300
39.00
0.35
13.65
600
18.00
0.50
9.00
1,100
33.00
0.43
14.19
Sugar
200
6.00
0.75
4.50
Groundnuts
225
6.75
1.00
6.75
1,200
36.00
0.20
7.20
Tomatoes
250
7.50
0.80
6.00
Vegetable oil
150
4.50
1.34
6.03
Milk
549
Cassava
Beans
Rice
Green leaves
US$ 77.07
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Proxy for Food
Access Gap in Dili
HHs earning less than
US$ 77.00 per month
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Access Gap in Dili = HHs earning
less than US$77/month
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Exercise 4.2.
The “Minimum Cost Food Basket”:
Challenges in Using the Method
As a group:
 consider the Dili Minimum Cost Food Basket
example just presented and discuss:
 What factors do you suppose made this method
feasible in Dili?
 What factors might make this method more
challenging? Why?
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Advanced EFSA Learning Programme
Consider before calculating
the food access deficit:




What is the average household size?
What are the food habits?
Which are the main sources of micronutrients?
From which sources do households obtain their
food?
(relatively easier to calculate a food access gap
in urban areas)
Advanced EFSA Learning Programme