Transcript The Federal R&D Budget

The Federal R&D
Budget: Context,
Overview, Outlook
Matt Hourihan
January 28, 2015
for the AWIS Leadership Series 2015
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budgetand-policy-program
Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and
OSTP oversight
Phase 2: OMB
Review
Budget
Release
The Federal Budget Cycle
Phase 3: Congressional
budget and appropriations
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
 Phase 1: Internal agency discussions and planning
 Joint guidance from OMB / OSTP on S&T (midsummer)
 Agencies deliver budget justifications to OMB (early fall)
Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and
OSTP oversight
Phase 2: OMB
Review
Budget
Release
The Federal Budget Cycle
Phase 3: Congressional
budget and appropriations
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
 Phase 2: OMB performs multi-stage review, responds to agencies
 Budget proposals are finalized in January
 President presents the proposed budget to Congress early
February
Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and
OSTP oversight
Phase 2: OMB
Review
Budget
Release
The Federal Budget Cycle
Phase 3: Congressional
budget and appropriations
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
 Phase 3: Congress gets involved
 Approves budget resolution: spending targets, reconciliation
 302(b) allocations
 Approps committees write/approve 12 appropriations bills
 12 subcommittees: one for each bill
 “President proposes, Congress disposes”
That’s How It’s Supposed to Work,
Anyway…
 FY10: Final omnibus in December (~3 months late)
 FY11: No Budget Res; full-year CR in April (six months late)
 FY12: No Budget Res; minibus/megabus (2-3 months late)
 FY13: FISCAL CLIFF; final approps in March (5 months late)
 FY14: No Budget Res; budget 2 months late; SHUTDOWN; final
approps in January
 FY15: Budget 1 month late; final approps in December
BCA takes
effect: first
year of caps
Sequestration
kicks in
(delayed and
reduced by the
American
Taxpayer Relief
Act)
Budget warfare
resolved by
Bipartisan
Budget Act
(restores some
funding in FY14,
FY15)
The Fiscal Context for FY 2015
 Congress keeps (partially) restoring funding
 FY15: 21% reduction in cuts
 Discretionary spending cap is only 0.2% above FY14 before
inflation
 Very little room for any sort of program growth…
 …reflected in the President’s budget
R&D in the FY15 Base Budget
percent change from FY14, constant dollars
DOE Defense
DOE Energy Programs
US Geological Survey
NIST
NOAA
Transportation
DOD Other
DOE Science
Agriculture
National Institutes of Health
NASA
Veterans Affairs
National Science Foundation
Environ Protection Agency
DOD S&T
Homeland Security
TOTAL
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Source: AAAS analysis of the FY 2015 President's Budget. Does not include additional funding proposed via Opportunity, Growth,
and Security Initiative. NOTE: Inflation is 1.7%. © 2014 AAAS
Admin R&D Priorities for FY15
 Department of Energy: NNSA, renewables and efficiency,
ARPA-E
 Neuroscience
 NASA: industry partnerships
 Transportation: highways and high-performance rail
 Extramural ag research
 Advanced Manufacturing
 Environmental research
 Plus: an extra $5.3 billion in the “Opportunity, Growth and
Security Initiative”
FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending Bill
Estimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Dept. of
Defense S&T
2012
2013
Commerce,
Justice,
Science
2014
Energy &
Water
2015 Request
Agriculture
2015 House
Interior and
Environment
2015 Senate
Labor, HHS,
Education*
2015 Omnibus
*Not introduced in House.
CJS bill includes NSF, NASA, Commerce. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports.
FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS
Notes on Appropriations
 Some notable gainers:
 DOD, NSF research
 NIH Alzheimer’s research
 NASA (especially Planetary Science, Aeronautics, exploration)
 USDA: Poultry science center funding, AFRI
 NOAA Research
 Modest increases for NIST, USGS
 NSF construction, BRAIN Initiative fully funded
Notes on Appropriations
 Most NIH institutes: sub-inflation
 Mixed outcomes for Office of Science programs, energy
technology programs
 EPA, NASA Earth Science cut
 No high-performance rail R&D
 Omnibus also included ~$500 billion for Ebola-related research
and clinical trials
 Excluded DHS
 Most agencies ahead of the discretionary curve
Looking ahead to FY16…
 Back to sequester levels?
 President to propose cap increase
 Size and composition of the
discretionary budget? Can R&D stay
ahead of the curve?
 Deficits have fallen, but big-picture
fiscal challenges remain largely
unchanged
 Debt limit, entitlement growth
 Reconciliation strategy?
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program