Transcript - HotelierMiddleEast.com

GCC Hotels Future Pipeline Survey, September 2011
September 14th, Jumeirah Beach Hotel, Dubai.
Presenter: Guy Wilkinson, Viability
Hyatt at Capital Gate, Abu Dhabi
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Viability Management Consultants
• Hospitality and real estate development consultancy
• Established in 2006
• Principals have consulted in every country in the Middle East except Iraq, as
well as many in Africa
• Specialized in providing:
– Bankable feasibility, market and related studies
– Operator selection and contract negotiations
– Strategic advice
• Reputation for quality, detail and realistic advice
“Truly an expert consulting company.”
“…a most valuable contribution to our knowledge base.”
“All responses from Viability were exceptionally prompt
and pertinent.”
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Viability’s annual GCC future hotel survey:
methodology
•
•
•
•
•
13th continual year of survey.
All chains active in the GCC are canvassed directly.
Ranking based on numbers of rooms and suites only.
Ranking includes only chain hotel projects that are firmly committed.
Excluded:
– All rumoured projects.
– All unsigned projects.
– All projects for which opening dates have yet to be confirmed.
– All single owner-operated properties.
– All serviced and residential apartments, chalets and villas
(but
more on those later...)
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
GCC Confirmed Future Hotel Pipeline Trends, 2007 2011
350
10 0 ,0 0 0
92,0 26
90 ,0 0 0
82,357
30 0
83,60 4
77,0 20
250
80 ,0 0 0
70 ,0 0 0
57,74 3
60 ,0 0 0
20 0
50 ,0 0 0
325
150
10 0
295
Hotels
Room s
283
274
4 0 ,0 0 0
30 ,0 0 0
199
20 ,0 0 0
50
10 ,0 0 0
0
20 0 7
20 0 8
…when diligence is due
20 0 9
20 10
20 11
www.viability.ae
GCC Hotel Chain Rankings, September 2011
Rooms/Suites
Hotels
1
Marriott
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Hilton
IHG
Rotana
Starwood
Accor
Fairmont Raffles
Millennium
Movenpick
Rezidor
Best Western
Kempinski
Jumeirah
Hyatt
Golden Tulip
Four Seasons
Coral
Wyndham
City Seasons
Citymax
Premier Inn
Formosa
MGM
MENA
Southern Sun
QNH
Oetker
Rocco Forte
Ramee
West Paces
…when diligence is due
10,472
9,894
7,316
5,367
4,938
4,422
3,966
3,745
3,187
2,233
2,132
1,779
1,428
1,340
1,250
973
967
881
845
753
742
737
671
584
552
540
500
440
415
414
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Marriott
IHG
Hilton
Rotana
Accor
Starwood
Millennium
Best Western
Movenpick
Rezidor
Coral
Fairmont Raffles
Golden Tulip
Kempinski
Jumeirah
Citymax
Four Seasons
Hyatt
Wyndham
Anantara
City Seasons
MENA
Premier Inn
QNH
Ramee
Ayla
Banyan Tree
Formosa
Mandarin Oriental
MGM
33
26
24
18
17
17
15
10
9
9
7
7
7
6
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Chain, September
12,0 0 0
2011
10 ,0 0 0
8,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
2,0 0 0
-
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotels by Chain, September 2011
35
33
30
26
25
24
20
20
15
10
18
17 17
15
10
9
9
7
5
7
7
6
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
0
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
All Future GCC Letting Units by Chain, September
12011
4 ,0 0 0
12,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
8,0 0 0
6,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
2,0 0 0
-
Rooms
…when diligence is due
A p art ment s & V illas
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Country, September
2011
Bahrain, 3,271 , 4 %
Kuw ait, 1,793 , 2%
Om an, 4 ,579 , 6%
Qatar, 6,859 , 9%
UA E, 32,258 , 4 2%
Saud i A rab ia, 28,260
, 37%
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by Country, 2009-2011
60 ,0 0 0
50 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
30 ,0 0 0
20 ,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
0
Bahrain
Kuw ait
Om an
20 0 9
…when diligence is due
Qatar
20 10
Saud i A rab ia
UA E
20 11
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotels by Country, 2009-2011
20 0
193
180
160
160
14 0
120
110
95
10 0
80
60
52
46
40
24
20
20
13
13
18
16
10
27 29 27
22
7
0
Bahrain
Kuw ait
Om an
20 0 9
…when diligence is due
Qatar
20 10
Saud i A rab ia
UA E
20 11
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites by City, September
2011
14 ,0 0 0
12,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
8,0 0 0
6,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
2,0 0 0
0
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotels by City, September 2011
50
45
44
42
40
35
30
27
25
20
25
19
16
16
15
12
10
11
10
7
5
6
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
0
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Future GCC Hotels by Project Status, September
2011
Delayed 3 years, 13,
5%
Delayed 4 years, 2, 1%
Delayed 2 years, 32,
12%
Delayed 5 years, 1, 0 %
A d vanced 1year, 9,
3%
Delayed 1 year, 50 ,
18%
On tim e, 167, 61%
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
GCC Hotel Projects Put on Hold or Cancelled, 20092011
44
45
40
37
36
35
30
25
20
15
12
10
10
8
6
5
3
2
8
7
6
5
4
3
7
2
0
0
Bahrain
Kuw ait
Om an
20 0 9
…when diligence is due
Qatar
20 10
Saud i A rab ia
UA E
20 11
www.viability.ae
GCC Hotel Rooms/Suites Put on Hold or Cancelled,
2009-11
14 ,0 0 0
12,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
8,0 0 0
6,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
2,0 0 0
0
Bahrain
Kuw ait
Om an
20 0 9
…when diligence is due
Qatar
20 10
Saud i A rab ia
UA E
20 11
www.viability.ae
Jabal Omar, Makkah
…when diligence is due
•
$5.5bn project largely responsible
for keeping Marriott, Hilton and
Hyatt at the top of the rankings.
•
Between them, these three leading
operators are planning to open 12
hotels with almost 7,000 rooms in
the Jabal Omar project.
•
Hilton alone will open no less than
6 hotels with >4,000 rooms at
Jabal Omar, under its Conrad,
Hilton, Hilton Suites and
DoubleTree brands.
www.viability.ae
New Chains & Brands
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Regent Emirates Pearl Hotel, Abu Dhabi
…when diligence is due
•
Ayla is a new operator specializing in Al Ain in
Abu Dhabi emirate.
Taiwanese company Formosa will open the first
Regent hotel in Abu Dhabi, having bought the
brand from Rezidor.
Mandarin Oriental is making its GCC debut with
properties in Abu Dhabi and Doha.
Saudi chain Mena will soon open its first nonSaudi property in Muscat.
MGM, star of Las Vegas, is bringing its Bellagio
and MGM Grand brands to the Dubai Pearl
project.
Established by former Ritz-Carlton pioneers,
West Paces is debuting its luxurious Solis brand
in Doha.
Accor will open the first example of its designfocussed MGallery concept in Doha.
Hyatt Place, formerly AmeriSuites, will open in
Makkah.
The first Langham Place will be in Doha.
Millennium’s upscale brand The Biltmore will
debut in Abu Dhabi.
Swiss Belhotel will launch Swiss Bellin and
Swiss Belexpress hotels in Oman.
www.viability.ae
Abu Dhabi
Pipeline
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Brand
Anantara
Biltmore
Centro
Centro
City Seasons
City Seasons
Citymax
Courtyard by Marriott
Cristal
Danat
Dusit Thani
Fairmont
Four Seasons
Hotel Le Bristol
Hotel Le Bristol
Hyatt
Ibis
InterContinental
Jumeirah
Mandarin Oriental
Marriott
Millennium
Movenpick
Movenpick
Movenpick
Novotel
Novotel
Park Hyatt
Premier Inn
Premier Inn
Ramada
Regent
Renaissance
Ritz Carlton
Rocco Forte
Rosewood
Rotana
Rooms
223
226
229
414
355
189
250
195
112
11
401
446
200
250
250
200
294
275
400
160
379
412
473
400
500
361
160
290
242
300
120
377
279
567
281
190
354
Rotana
Sofitel
Southern Sun
St. Regis
St. Regis
W
Westin
315
280
352
279
380
330
148
…when diligence is due
Apts
Villas
131
125
202
35
229
240
64
60
132
140
13
Total
223
226
229
414
355
189
250
195
112
11
532
446
325
250
250
200
294
275
602
195
379
641
713
400
500
361
224
290
242
300
120
437
411
567
281
330
367
315
280
352
279
380
330
148
Year
2012
2013
2011
2012
2012
2012
2015
2014
2011
2011
2012
2014
2014
2014
2014
2011
2012
2014
2011
2014
2014
2012
2015
2015
2014
2012
2012
2011
2011
2013
2011
2012
2014
2012
2011
2012
2014
Rating
5
5
3
3
5
3
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
5
3
3
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
2012
2012
2013
2012
2011
2013
2011
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
www.viability.ae
Dubai
Pipeline
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Brand
Novotel
Pullman
Sofitel
Sofitel
Auris
Citymax Hotels
City Seasons
Corp Executive Hotel
Fairmont
Conrad
Doubletree by Hilton
Hilton
Hilton
Crowne Plaza
Crowne Plaza
Holiday Inn
Jumeirah
Courtyard by Marriott
Courtyard by Marriott
Courtyard by Marriott
JW Marriott
JW Marriott
Marriott
Renaissance
Renaissance
Ritz Carlton
Melia
Bellagio
MGM Grand
Millennium
Ramee Grand
Rosewood
Centro
Rayhaan
Sheraton
Palazzo Versace
Ramada
Movenpick
Movenpick
Movenpick
Park Inn by Radisson
Park Inn by Radisson
Rooms
376
278
356
350
337
150
209
208
382
559
344
415
371
407
400
416
293
152
250
220
167
900
355
300
328
163
164
291
380
416
175
190
537
428
640
215
252
168
296
324
268
310
…when diligence is due
Apts
90
76
187
100
160
20
308
60
Villas
Total
466
354
543
350
337
150
209
208
382
559
344
515
371
407
400
416
293
152
250
220
167
900
355
300
328
163
164
451
400
416
175
190
537
428
640
215
252
476
296
324
268
370
Year
2012
2012
2013
2013
2012
2015
2014
2011
2012
2012
2012
2014
2011
2014
2013
2015
2012
2015
2013
2015
2013
2012
2012
2015
2013
2012
2011
2014
2014
2011
2015
2012
2014
2011
2014
2012
2011
2011
2012
2012
2014
2013
Rating
4
4
5
5
5
3
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
4
3
5
5
4
4
www.viability.ae
Survey Highlights
• 4th largest pipeline ever recorded: 274 planned hotels with 77,020 rooms under
development as at September 2011.
• Just a 9% reduction over 2010 levels of rooms development and a 20% fall compared to
2009, the all-time record year.
• 15 chains each declaring more than 1,000 rooms under development, compared to 23 in
2009.
• US chain Marriott again ranked No 1, with an all-time record rooms pipeline exceeding
10,000 rooms for the first time ever.
• Survey canvassed 104 hotels chains active in our region, compared to 80 last year.
• Of these, 45 chains declared future pipelines (+4 serviced apartment chains).
• UAE still has the largest country pipeline, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi have the largest city
pipelines.
• 98 projects had been delayed by between 1 and 5 years compared to their original
programmes declared to us in 2010.
• 58 projects had been ‘put on hold’ or cancelled altogether since the 2010 rankings,
accounting for 15,757 potential rooms.
• Since the recession started in earnest, back in 2009, we calculate that around 50,000 rooms
in total have fallen into this category.
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae
Thanks for listening
Tel +971 3 344 3734
Fax +971 4 344 0907
…when diligence is due
www.viability.ae