Transcript Financial Briefing

ADOT
Financial Overview
Government Finance Officers of Arizona
February 19, 2010
SOURCES AND USES
OF FUNDS
Federal Aid
•
•
•
•
•
•
Interstate Maintenance
National Hwy System
Surface Trans Program
Bridge Program
CMAQ Program
Other
FUNDS SOURCES & USES:
HIGHWAY PROGRAM
ADOT Operating Budget
•
•
•
•
Highway User Revenue
Funds (HURF)
•
•
•
•
•
Fuel Taxes
VLT
Registration Fees
Motor Carrier
Other
AVAILABLE
FUNDING
Maricopa Transportation
Excise Taxes (RARF)*
State Five-year
Construction Program
• Statewide Construction
Program
• Preservation
• Management
• Improvement
• 1/2 cent Sales Tax
• MAG Regional
Transportation Plan
Financing Tools
• Bonds – HURF, RARF
• Grant Anticipation Notes
• Board Funding
Obligations
• State Infrastructure Bank
(HELP)
Maintenance
Motor Vehicle
Highway Operations
Support Functions
Other
• Debt Service
• Land, Buildings, and
Infrastructure
*Regional Area Road Fund
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
($20.0)
Dollars in Millions
STATE HIGHWAY FUND LOW CASH BALANCE
FY 2007 – FY 2010
$100.0
$80.0
$60.0
($40.0)
($60.0)
($80.0)
9
c-0
De 9
v-0
No 9
t -0
Oc 09
pSe 09
gAu 9
l-0
Ju 9
n-0
Ju 09
yMa 9
r-0
Ap 09
rMa 09
bFe 9
n-0
Ja 8
c-0
De 8
v-0
No 8
t -0
Oc 08
pSe 08
gAu 8
l-0
Ju 8
n-0
Ju 08
yMa 8
r-0
Ap 08
rMa 08
bFe 8
n-0
Ja 07
cDe 7
v-0
No 7
t -0
Oc 07
pSe 07
gAu 7
l-0
Ju 7
n-0
Ju 07
yMa 7
r-0
Ap 07
rMa 07
bFe 7
n-0
Ja 6
c-0
De 6
v-0
No 6
t -0
Oc 06
pSe 06
gAu 6
l-0
Ju
Month
Low SHF Balance
FEDERAL AID FUNDING
FEDERAL AID FUNDING
SAFETEA-LU (2005-09)
Arizona Apportionments and Obligation Authority
$750,000
Apportionments
$714,764 $734,702
Thousands
$700,000
$696,659
$650,000
$647,507
$600,000
$550,000
$600,156
$668,847
$587,106 $601,929
$705,032 $690,764
Obligation Authority
$500,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Arizona Department of Transportation
FEDERAL HIGHWAY PROGRAM OBLIGATIONS
($ Billions)
$50.0
$42.0
$45.0
$40.0
$36.3
$41.2
$42.0
$40.7
$36.9
$35.0
$28.9
$30.2
$30.0
$25.0
$20.0
$15.0
$10.0
$5.0
$0.0
2005
2006
2007
SAFETEA-LU Extended to 2010
Sources : AASHTO and U.S. DOT FHWA Notices for 2008-10.
6
2008
2009
2010
Highway Program After Recissions
FEDERAL HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
FEDERAL IMPACTS ON ARIZONA
• Rescissions of federal highway funds
– In 2009, Arizona lost nearly $235 million
• Carryover Impact:
– ADOT operating under a reduced level of federal funding
• Continuing Resolutions
– Congress has not reauthorized the federal highway
program
HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
(HURF)
HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
Revenue Performance
Highway User Revenue Fund
Percentage Change by Fiscal Year
FY 2001 – 2010
10.0%
GROWTH
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
FISCAL YEAR
NOTE: FY 2010 through Jan 2010.
2007
2008
2009
2010
HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
September 2009 Official Forecast and
January 2010 Planning Forecast
($ Millions)
15
Fiscal Year
September 2009
Official Forecast
January 2010
Planning Forecast
Variance
2010
$1,247.8
$1,222.8
($25.0)
2011
$1,264.6
$1,239.3
($25.3)
2012
$1,298.0
$1,271.5
($26.5)
2013
$1,346.5
$1,312.2
($34.3)
2014
$1,398.4
$1,358.1
($40.3)
2015
$1,458.0
$1,405.6
($52.4)
Total 2011-2015
$6,765.5
$6,586.7
($178.8)
CAGR*
3.2%
2.8%
* Compound Annual Growth Rate 2010 - 2015
REGIONAL AREA ROAD FUND
(RARF)
REGIONAL AREA ROAD FUND
Percentage Change by Fiscal Year
FY 2001 – 2010
20.0%
15.0%
GROWTH
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
FISCAL YEAR
NOTE: FY 2010 through November 2009.
2007
2008
2009
2010
GAS TAX - 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
12 Month Moving Average
$510,000
$500,000
$490,000
$480,000
$470,000
$460,000
$450,000
$440,000
Dec
03
Apr
04
Aug
04
Dec
04
Apr
05
Aug
05
Dec
05
Apr
06
Aug
06
Dec
06
Apr
07
FISCAL YEAR
NOTE: FY 2010 through December 2009.
Aug
07
Dec
07
Apr
08
Aug
08
Dec
08
Apr
09
Aug
09
Dec
09
VEHICLE LICENSE TAX - 12-MONTH
MOVING AVERAGE
$400,000
12 Month Moving Average
$390,000
$380,000
$370,000
$360,000
$350,000
$340,000
$330,000
$320,000
Jun
05
Sep Dec
05
05
Mar
06
Jun
06
Sep Dec
06
06
Mar
07
Jun
07
Sep Dec
07
07
FISCAL YEAR
NOTE: FY 2010 through December 2009.
Mar
08
Jun Sep Dec
08
08
08
Mar
09
Jun
09
Sep Dec
09
09
VEHICLE LICENSE TAX
• Primary factors influencing VLT revenues:
– Replacement of older vehicles
– Population growth
– “New to Arizona” registrations
– Depreciation of existing fleet
• To maintain stable or growing VLT revenues, growth factors
must be sufficient to offset depreciation
HURF PORTION OF VEHICLE LICENSE TAX
FY 2000 – 2010 ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
VLT
Change
2000
$236.5
7.5%
2001
$251.6
6.4%
2002
$270.6
7.6%
2003
$281.9
4.2%
2004
$312.3
10.8%
2005
$328.2
5.1%
2006
$373.9
13.9%
2007
$393.5
5.3%
2008
$385.2
-2.1%
2009
$357.5
-7.2%
2010 /1
$167.6
-9.6%
NOTE: /1 FY 2010 through December 2009.
Source: Global Insight
Calendar Year, Quarter
2019:3
2019:1
2018:3
2018:1
2017:3
2017:1
2016:3
2016:1
2015:3
2015:1
2014:3
2014:1
2013:3
2013:1
2012:3
2012:1
2011:3
2011:1
2010:3
2010:1
2009:3
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009:1
2008:3
2008:1
2007:3
2007:1
Millions of Vehicles
U.S. UNIT SALES OF NEW LIGHT VEHICLES
(Millions of Vehicles, Annualized)
We are here
POPULATION GROWTH IS SLOWING
• In 2009, several Arizona cities
and counties actually LOST
population (see table).
• Arizona’s growth rate was LESS
than 1% in 2009, at 0.7%.
• Over the period 1970-2000,
Arizona’s population growth
averaged 3.6% annually; not
expected to recover to this level
soon, if ever.
Arizona Places with
Population Declines
(2009 estimates)
Apache Junction
Coolidge
Cottonwood
Douglas
El Mirage
Gila County
Globe
Greenlee County
Nogales
Pinal County (unincorporated)
• Believed to be attributable to the
national economy and declining
birth rates.
Snowflake
Tucson
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce
STATE BUDGET DEFICIT
• Projected state budget deficit for FY 2011 is $3.4 billion:
– Represents 51% of anticipated General Fund revenues in
FY 2011.
• Continuing structural deficits anticipated through entire FY
2011 – 2015 program period.
• Pressures to transfer from HURF and SHF to DPS, and VLT
sweeps are likely to continue for several more years.
• Unlikely that Board will be able to issue Board Funding
Obligations (BFOs) to State Treasurer for the foreseeable
future.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FUTURE OF
TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
FY2010 SERVICE IMPACTS
• 12 MVD Office Closures
• Employee Reductions
• Snow Removal
• Freeway Maintenance (litter, debris, graffiti)
• Rest Area Closures
FUNDING AND DESIGN IMPACTS
Federal Funding: Arizona is now virtually dependent on federal
transportation funding resulting in:
•
No more HURF swaps
•
More Stringent Requirements
– Environmental, ROW and Utility Clearances
– Federal design standards
•
Longer time horizons
– Lead time for planning
•
Increased costs
– Local match required (usually 5.7%)
ARRA - 1
• 59 Recovery Act projects (57 original projects, plus 2 added
in Maricopa County from cost savings)
• 24 projects completed
• $117 Million in cost savings allowed for additional ARRA
projects statewide
• ADOT expected to create or sustain 6,000 direct
construction jobs statewide through the Recovery Act
ARRA - 2
• Anticipate approximately $520 million in funding to AZ
• Half of funding under contract within 90 days
– Second half under contract within 1 year
• Project readiness criteria:
– Design completed
– EIS completed
– Utility clearances approved (including railroad)
• ADOT will work with local jurisdictions through COGS/MPO
HOW YOU CAN HELP
• Engage residents
• Educate your community
• Engage local and state representatives
• Let Congress know the rescission issue must be dealt with
before we lose REAL money!