Transcript No Slide Title

Exploring Freight & Equipment Trends
April 2011
2010-Absorbing the Excesses; 2011-2012: Exiting the “Rear View
Mirror” Economy & More Steady Growth Ahead
Thom Albrecht, CFA
Managing Director
(804) 787-8210
[email protected]
FOR REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANALYST CERTIFICATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES SECTION AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION
Inventory Ratios are Reasonable…
• Recent moves reflect better
than normal seasonal trends
• Retail ratio includes
automotive & retail; total inc.
manuf. & retail
• 1.45 ratio means that for every
30 days of sales approx. 44
days of inventories exist
• From ’03-’09 the lowest retail
ratio in Dec was 1.15 and the
average was 1.26 (Dec ’10 was
1.12)
• 1.45 up from 1.12; and 1.35
improved from 1.18
Retail Inventories / Sales, NSA
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.45
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total Inventories / Sales, NSA
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.35
1.3
1.2
1.1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NSA is not seasonally adjusted
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
2
The Consumer is Cleaning up His Balance Sheet
14
20
19.5
13.5
19
18.5
18
12.5
17.5
12
17
16.5
11.5
16
11
15.5
Debt Service Ratio
Financial Obligations Ratio
15
10.5
14.5
3/31/2010
3/31/2008
3/31/2006
3/31/2004
3/31/2002
3/31/2000
3/31/1998
3/31/1996
3/31/1994
3/31/1992
3/31/1990
3/31/1988
3/31/1986
3/31/1984
3/31/1982
14
3/31/1980
10
Left chart shows debt reduction of $1.1 trillion (-9%) since peak and $155B (-1.3%) since Q3’10. Note: The FOR adds automobile
lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments to mortgage
payments. DSR is a ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. Debt payments consist of the estimated required
payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
3
FOR Ratio
Debt Service Ratio
13
2011 Should be a Strong Freight Year
• ISM Survey: Capex to be up
14.5% in 2011 vs. 5.4% in
2010
• ABI index crossed 50 for
the first time since late 2007
• IP growing at ~ 1.5x-2x
GDP; IP creates freight!
• Accelerated depreciation
incrementally positive
• Housing starts flattish, but
auto to be 13.5M to 14.0M
units; since 1970 only 7
one-year increases exceed
1.5M units
• Biggest Risks? Geopolitical, Japan, fuel
Sources: ISM, AIA, FRB Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau and Wards.com
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
4
Truck Tonnage & Loads Versus Auto & Housing-Incremental
Changes will Adversely Impact Drivers More than Past Cycles
Truck Tonnage
(Seasonally
Adjusted Index)
Total TL Loads
(Not
Seasonally
Adjusted
Index)
Wards N.A. Car
& Truck
Production
(In Millions)
Housing Starts
(In Thousands)
1999
105.5
102.8
17.6
1,640.9
2000
100.0 (-5.2%)
100.0 (-2.7%)
17.7
1,568.7
2001
99.5 (-0.5%)
106.0 (+6%)
15.8
1,602.7
2002
103.6 (+4.1%)
111.1 (+4.8%)
16.7
1,704.9
Yr/Yr Percent Change in
Truck Tonnage vs.
Housing Starts
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2003
106.7 (+3.0%)
111.6 (+0.5%)
16.2
1,847.7
-15%
-20%
2004
112.9 (+5.8%)
109.7 (-1.7%)
16.2
1,955.8
-25%
-30%
110.0 (+0.6%)
15.4
1,355.0
2008
113.3 (+1.1%)
110.9 (+0.8%)
12.9
905.5
2009
103.4 (-8.7%)
94.4 (-14.9%)
8.76 (-32.1%)
554.0
2010
109.4 (+5.8%)
99.0 (+4.9%)
12.15 (+38.7%)
587.6
2010
112.1 (-1.3%)
2009
2007
-40%
2008
1,800.9
2007
15.9
2006
109.3 (0%)
2005
113.6 (-1.8%)
2004
2006
-35%
2003
2,068.3
2002
16.3
2001
109.2 (-0.5%)
2000
115.7 (+2.5%)
1999
2005
Se asonally Adjuste d Truck Tonnage
Housing Starts
Sources: American Trucking Associations for tonnage and loads; www.wardsauto.com for autos; U.S. Census Bureau for housing.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
5
Key Equipment & Operating Trends
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
6
$85,000
$84,210
$80,000
$60,000
$57,000
$40,000
$20,000
Average Selling Price
4-Year Average Residual
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
90
$0
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
19972000
504,522
$100,000
Value After 1 Year
$121,000
$120,000
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
862,082
$140,000
Lots of late model
used trucks in 20012002 downturn
902,466
Tractors: $37,000 More Expensive Since ‘01 But Nothing Added to Residuals;
Late Model Used Equipment (’07-’09) Will be in Great Demand During ‘11-’12
20032006
20072010
3-Year Residual Value
U.S. Class 8 Tractor Sales
Sources: Tractor values from Navistar from 2000-2010, 1990, 1995 and 2011E figures are BBTCM estimates; Class 8 tractor sales from A.C.T. Research. 1st year D&A is
approximately $33,000, meaning value is $85K after one year.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
7
Maintenance Costs Are a Pressure Point for Many Carriers
20%
50
46
41
Source: BBTCM analysis.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
30
20
15.8%
14.5%
11.8%
0%
17
14
12.1%
5%
22
40
28
12.3%
10%
11.2%
15.9%
15%
10
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1'10
Maintenance Costs-% of Revenue
Average Age in Months
70
$0.12
60
$0.136
$0.10
$0.08
40
$0.087
$0.06
$0.04
50
30
$0.059
$0.021
$0.02
20
$0.044
10
$0.027
$0.00
Age of Truck (in months)
Cumulative yr/yr average CPM
Age of Truck (in months)
80
$0.14
CPM ($)
• With thousands of carriers
having a 97 to 102 OR
maintenance costs are
ominous
• By the time the OR is back
to 94-ish (satisfactory level
to reinvest) it could be too
late
• Banks cautious but thawing
• CSA, EOBRs, HOS all
loom on top of aging
equipment
45
0
0-12
$0.021
12-24
$0.027
24-36
$0.044
36-48
$0.059
48-60
$0.087
60-72
$0.136
8
1,200
1,000
800
600
1,086
1,072
1,123
1,115
1,073
1,046
1,032
959
881
835
785
808
799
760
663
672
670
647
627
538
568
581
558
538
463
445
LOH: A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
400
200
< 100
4.3%
100 to 199
9.9%
200 to 299
17.3%
300 to 399
24.5%
400 to 499
16.4%
500 to 599
9.0%
600 to 699
7.1%
700 to 799
4.1%
800 to 899
2.7%
900 to 999
1.5%
1000 to 1499
2.5%
1500 to 1999
0.4%
0.2%
2000 +
0%
5%
10%
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
0
15%
20%
25%
30%
Length of Haul %
Werner's Average LOH (miles)
Sources: Werner Enterprises 10K on left; Heartland Express documents on right.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
9
Key LTL Trends
8.5%
4.9%
80
2.6%
0%
-0.3%
-5%
-2.5%
-3.7%
60
5%
2.7%
-10%
-11.7%
40
-15%
-20%
20
-23.2%
0
-25%
-30%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
10%
6.4%
4.9% 4.0%
120
4.3%
5%
4.5%
1.8%
100
1.2%
1.8%
-0.7%0%
80
-5%
60
-10%
40
20
-15.9%
0
Year/Year % Change
10%
Year/Year % Change
Annual LTL Tonnage Index (NSA)
15%
100
•
•
•
•
•
•
140
20%
14.7%
Annual LTL Revenue Per Ton Index (NSA)
120
-15%
-20%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Top 25 LTL carriers are 87.6% of the market
Top 25 haul $24.1B out of $27.47B; $11B hauled by non-LTL firms
$10B of LTL freight is hauled by non-LTL
2010 tonnage declined -0.3% and yields fell -0.7%
2010 revenues grew 9.4% due to FSCs and some yield in 2H’10
9 carriers with at least $1B in annual revenue; their share 67.5%
Source: American Trucking Associations TRAC report. Left is tonnage and right is yields. BBTCM analysis in text.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
10
What Happened Last Spring and Summer? Did Capacity Tilt
Towards the Carriers that Quickly? What About 2011?
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
11
Spot Market Provides Directional Clues Even if
Large Truckers Have Little Exposure
Monthly Market Demand Index (MDI)
20.3
19.7
18.7
18.2
17.2
16.5
15.1
14.7
12.8
13.4
10.8
11.1
9.8
8.8
7.1
6.4
6.5
6.4
5.4
3.3
3.9 5.0
2.9
3.0
2.2
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
2.2
0
4.8
4.9
5.2
8.0
8.3
8.1
7.7 7.6
7.5 7.4
6.1
5.5
5.5
4.8
8.5
7.2
4.5
4.6
4.8
7.5
6.2
5.1
4.1
4.4 4.3 4.3
3.5
3.2
3.6
2.5
2.1
2.9
Jan-08
6.9
7.6
Jul-07
6.3
8.5
7.3
7.4
11.3
3.9 3.9
4.5
4.2
3.4 3.6
3.0
2.3
1.9 1.8 1.9
Jan-11
8.9
Jul-10
9.2
9.2
Jan-10
8.8
9.2
11.3
10.1
9.5
Jan-09
10.0
9.8
8.7
12.2
12.2
11.6
12.1
11.3
15.6
14.5
14.8
Jul-08
14.2
12.9 12.8
10
14.1
Jan-07
15
5
The MDI increased
7% sequentially to
15.6 for the week
ending April 4th
Hurricane
Katrina
17.1
Jul-09
20
Sources: TransCore for left chart; Internet Truckstop for right. On right chart, above 7.0 favors carriers;
below 5.0 favors shippers; 5 to 7 is “neutral zone”, in terms of pricing and capacity.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
12
16% Shrinkage in Tractors 8-Years Old or Newer
2.3
7%
5%
2.2
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
TL Fleet (8 years old or newer) has
shrunk 16% or 252,000 units; 1.6%
growth expected in 2011
Fleet that is 15 years old or newer
has shrunk 12% or 273,700 units;
0.6% shrinkage expected in 2011
Tractor growth has been below GDP
6 of the last 8 years (top chart)
It has also been below Industrial
Production most years
Trucking is much more cyclical than
the broader economy
Deregulation’s 20-year window of
growth has run its course
Freight grows slower than GDP
growth most years
3%
2.1
1%
2.0
-1%
-3%
1.9
-5%
1.8
-7%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Class 8 Tractors 15 Years Old or Newer
Annual % Change
1.7
6%
4%
1.6
2%
1.5
0%
1.4
-2%
-4%
1.3
-6%
1.2
-8%
2000
2002
2004
2006
Class 8 Tractors 8 Years Old or Newer
2008
2010
Annual % Change
Sources: A.C.T. Research and BBTCM analysis. Population figures in millions.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
13
West Coast Volumes Peaked in August 2010; 12% Growth in
Q1’11 and ~ 5% Yr/Yr Through Sept; These are Volatile
4Q10 Volumes Dropped 11.7% from 3Q10; a
More Normal Drop is 4% to 6%; However, Yr/Yr
4Q10 Growth was 12.2%
3,500
3,000
2,500
3,168
2,979 3,017
2,868
2,745
2,558
3,123
2,972 2,910
2,920
2,766
2,595
2,545
2,711
3,149
3,066
2,915
3,059
2,719
2,700
2,513
2,447
2,410
2,227
2,158
1,995
2,000
1,500
1,000
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
1Q09
4Q08
3Q08
2Q08
1Q08
4Q07
3Q07
2Q07
1Q07
4Q06
3Q06
2Q06
1Q06
4Q05
0
3Q05
500
Source: National Retail Federation® Global Port Tracker report, February 2011. Measures quarterly TEU volumes at 6 western ports.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
14
Unintended Consequences from New Regs-Influence
Started in 2010 and Should Accelerate in 2011
Stated Goals
• HOS=> less driver fatigue;
improved safety
• CSA=> real-time data; all
fleets & drivers covered; 7
behaviors monitored
• EOBRs=> enforce HOS
and driver performance
under CSA
Additional Consequences
• HOS: Reduce asset
utilization; de facto capacity
cut; should drive up rates
• CSA: Reduced driver base 510%; driver free agents?; new
equipment important; flatbed
esp. hit; insurance issues; 3
layers
• EOBRs: “Under the radar”
fleets & O-Os experience 5%
to 8% utilization drops; more
level playing field for large
company equipment fleets
Source: BBTCM analysis.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
15
Driver Turnover Is Re-Emerging as a Key Issue
Female Population Growth (Aged 20-44)
Male Population Growth (Aged 20-44)
Driver Turnover
10:Q3
09:Q4
09:Q1
08:Q2
07:Q3
06:Q4
06:Q1
2%
05:Q2
0%
04:Q3
-1.2%
8%
4%
03:Q4
20%
03:Q1
-1.0%
02:Q2
40%
10%
6%
01:Q3
-0.8%
127%
75%
00:Q4
60%
12%
136%
00:Q1
-0.6%
2012E
-0.4%
80%
2011E
100%
2010E
-0.2%
2009
120%
2008
0.0%
2007
140%
2006
0.2%
2005
160%
2004
0.4%
Unemployment Rate
• White males aged 35-54 have shrunk by 3M during the last decade
• Van pay is typically under $0.40 a mile (latest survey average was 36.8¢)
• Private not-for hire fleets have low turnover (<15%) and average $64,000
in annual driver pay
• This implies TL for-hire pay needs to rise to $0.50 to $0.55 per mile; LTL
pay already in this range
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau on left; ATA TRAC Report on right, which reflects large TL fleet (above $30M of revenue)
annualized driver turnover. Unemployment is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). BBTCM analysis below.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
16
So, is the Market Really Short on Capacity?
• Not so fast!
• Yes!
• Linehaul fleet down by 16%
• Driver recruiters down 50%60% at many fleets
• Load growth of 2% to 4%
• IP growing at 1.5x-2x GDP
growth
• CSA caused many fleets to
purge 5% to 10% of drivers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
Source: BBTCM analysis.
Loads off 15%
Packaging revolution, intermodal and
supply chain changes reduced truck
loads
Kindle 115:110; cell phone buying
Chinese VAT in summer ‘10
Container shortage less severe in
2011; watch chassis in ‘11
Conclusion: TL about at equilibrium
to end 2010, not way short; problem
likely to worsen in 2011 until summer
2012; loosening in 2013-2014
LTL still has 5% to 8% excess
terminal capacity, but maxed out on
labor capacity-that is the key!
17
Miscellaneous Factors
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
Carriers Facing a Tug of War
Shippers Want:
Government Wants/Demands:
•
•
•
•
Increased Payload
Fewer loads (packaging revolution,
SC revolution)
• Supply Chain Flexibility 24/7
• More Tractors & Trailers
• More Drivers
• Indemnification
• More Tractors
Shippers Want:
• Stretched Payment Terms
• “Partnerships”, but 3PLs prevalent;
dedicated as insurance capacity
• Intermodal
• Financially strong carriers
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
Emissions Friendly Eqpt.-Heavier
Fewer loads if Congress passes 88K
or 97K GVW
• HOS: Fewer, less flexible hours
• More moved by rails/intermodal
• CSA shrinks driver pool
• CSA: Increases liability potential
• O-Os shrinking & under attack
Reality Is:
• Fuel paid 2x a week
• Carriers have started non-asset
divisions, but woefully inadequate
• Less than 10 large asset-based IMCs
• Govt. hasn’t lifted SIR of 750K since
1983
19
Costs and Rate Trends
107.6
103.8104.0103.8
105
101.0
103.5103.7105.3
100.0
109.0
106.5
100
2010
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
Costs per Total Mile
110
2008
RPLM
2000
1998
1996
1994
$0.90
1992
100
114.0
112.9
112.4
2006
$1.00
105
115
2004
$1.10
110
120.2
120.5
120
2002
$1.20
115
128.2
124.3
2000
120
127.0
125
1998
$1.30
130.8
130
1996
$1.40
1992
125
135
Rate Per Loaded Mile
RPLM Index
130
$1.50
Costs per Mile
135
140
1994
Cost CAGR (red):
1990-1999: 0.8%
2001-2010: 4.1%, but…
2001-2008: 4.6%
RPLM vs. Costs: Rates fell
13.2% peak to trough, while
costs fell 9.7%
Sources: Data from 11 public companies; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and selected ATA data. BBTCM estimates for 2010-2011.
Index began in 1992 at 100.0 and converts loaded rate per mile figures into an index; index excludes fuel surcharges. BBTCM
analysis for costs.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
20
Mexico & Japan Considerations
Mexico:
• CSCMP just voted it best nearshore alternative vs. rest of
Americas
• Celadon example on pay
• N. Mexico to Dallas ideal for 13liter, but depends on freight mix
• 30% more expensive on labor visà-vis China but 20% cheaper
transportation
• Hundreds of companies have
opened/re-opened facilities in
Mexico since 20+% currency
devaluation in 2008-2009
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
Japan:
• Represents 6.4% of U.S. imports
and 4.7% of U.S. exports
• Provides 60% of world’s silicon,
used in semi-conductors, LCD
panels
• 35% of global flash memory in
phones, cameras, etc.
• Supply chain disruptions
• U.S. biggest exports: grain and
chemicals
• Pinch-points in supply chain. Ex:
autos & high tech; Shreveport, LA
GM plant
• If nuclear risk is contained?
Biggest rebuilding project in
global history
21
Container Rates May Impact Length of Peak
Shipping Season
Sources: Drewry Shipping Consultants and Journal of Commerce.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
22
Key Airfreight Trends-Steadier Growth Could
Pop Airfreight Bubble
Sources: Drewry Consultants and JOC. Air freight in January was 39 percent above the low point reached by the end of 2009, and some 6 percent above the pre-recession peak. The Drewry
Air Freight Price Index for Shanghai was launched in November 2008, and peaked in December 2009 at 149.1 with an average $6.03 per kilogram rate. The January 2011 index rose 3.3
percent from December to 104.8, and the January average per kilogram rate rose 14 cents to $4.24 per kilogram, a 10 percent year-over-year decline.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
23
A Few CSA (“Carrier Shipper Alliance”) Tips
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Secure all freight properly, esp. hazmat
Ensure accurate shipping weight to prevent overloading
Avoid excessive detention to max drivers’ HOS
Be flexible on pick-up and delivery times
Complete bill of ladings correctly
Provide proper placards for hazmat loads being tendered
Allow drivers access to loading process for freight
securement, esp. hazmat loads
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
24
Possible Shipper Game Plan in 2011
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Focus on securing capacity, not reducing rates
Increase approved brokers from 1 or 2 to 3-4
Bring in more carriers
Encourage “1-lane” wonders
Increase intermodal usage
Get tight with 3PLs
Utilize dedicated capacity
Shorten pay periods
Find out driver turnover on your account
Source: BBTCM analysis.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
25
Intermodal Developments
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
26
Significant Railroad Investments are Converting Some
Highway Freight
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
27
Crescent and Heartland Intermodal Corridors
• Heartland: 1,200 mile route is
220 miles shorter and 28 tunnels
were raised to accommodate
double-stack; opened Sept’10
• 1.5M to 2.0M annual loads
potential
• Target: International freight
• Crescent: 2,500 miles from NJ to
Louisiana; complete in 2012, but
improved svc. in 2011
• 2.0M to 2.5M annual loads
potential
• Target: Domestic highway
freight
Sources: Progressive Railroading and BBTCM estimates.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
28
Disclosures
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Price Chart
To receive price charts on the companies mentioned in this report, please contact BB&T Capital Markets Research at 800-5527757 x8785.
BB&T Capital Markets' rating distribution by percentage (as of December 31, 2010):
All companies
under coverage:
Buy (1)
Hold (2)
Underweight/Sell (3)
Not Rated (NR)
Suspended (SP)
53.8%
45.5%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
All companies under coverage to which it has provided
investment banking services in the previous 12 months:
Buy (1)
13.7%
Hold (2)
6.6%
Underweight/Sell (3)
0.0%
Not Rated (NR)
0.0%
Suspended (SP)
0.0%
BB&T Capital Markets Ratings System:
The BB&T Capital Markets Equity Research Department Stock Rating System consists of three separate ratings. The appropriate rating is determined by a stock’s estimated 12month total return potential, which consists of the percentage price change to the 12-month price target and the current yield on anticipated dividends. A 12-month price target is the
analyst’s best estimate of the market price of the stock in 12 months. A 12-month price target is highly subjective and the result of numerous assumptions, including company,
industry, and market fundamentals, both on an absolute and relative basis, as well as investor sentiment, which can be highly volatile.
The definition of each rating is as follows:
Buy (1): estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 10%
Hold (2): estimated total return potential greater than or equal to 0% and less than 10%
Underweight (3): estimated total return potential less than 0%
NR: Not Rated
NA: Not Applicable
NM: Not Meaningful
SP: Suspended
Stocks rated Buy (1) are required to have a published 12-month price target, while it is not required on stocks rated Hold (2) and Underweight (3).
BB&T Capital Markets Equity Research Disclosures as of April 5, 2011
Company
Arkansas Best Corporation (ABFS)
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
Celadon Group, Inc. (CGI)
Con-way Incorporated (CNW)
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. (CVTI)
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (GWR)
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)
Knight Transportation, Inc. (KNX)
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
Disclosure
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 4, 5, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
29
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)
Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. (RRTS)
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA)
Saia, Inc. (SAIA)
Swift Transportation Co., Inc. (SWFT)
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)
Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
USA Truck, Inc. (USAK)
Universal Truckload Services, Inc. (UACL)
Vitran Corporation Inc. (VTNC)
Wabash National Corporation (WNC)
Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN)
YRC Worldwide Inc. (YRCW)
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 6, 9
1, 4, 5, 6
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 4, 5, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 6, 9
1, 6
1, 6
1, 4, 5, 6
1, 6, 9
1, 6, 9
1, 6
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
BB&T Capital Markets Equity Research Disclosure Legend
1.
BB&T Capital Markets makes a market in the securities of the subject company.
2.
The analyst or a member of the analyst's household serves as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the
subject company.
3.
The analyst or a member of the analyst's household owns shares of the subject company.
4.
BB&T Capital Markets has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the last 12
months.
5.
BB&T Capital Markets has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the last
12 months.
6.
BB&T Capital Markets expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the
subject company in the next three months.
7.
BB&T Capital Markets or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common stock of the subject company as
calculated in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
8.
The subject company is, or during the past 12 months was, a client of BB&T Capital Markets, which provided noninvestment banking, securities-related services to, and received compensation from, the subject company for such
services. The analyst or employees of BB&T Capital Markets with the ability to influence the substance of this report
knows the foregoing facts.
9.
An affiliate of BB&T Capital Markets received compensation from the subject company for products or services other
than investment banking services during the past 12 months. The analyst or employees of BB&T Capital Markets with
the ability to influence the substance of this report know or have reason to know the foregoing facts.
For valuation methodology and related risk factors on Buy (1)–rated stocks, please refer to the body text of this report or to individual reports on any covered companies referenced
in this report.
The analyst(s) principally responsible for preparation of this report received compensation that is based upon many factors, including the firm’s overall investment banking revenue.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
30
Analyst Certification
The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her (their) personal views
about the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and that his/her (their) compensation was not, is not, or will not be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report.
OTHER DISCLOSURES
The information and statistics in this report have been obtained from sources we believe are reliable but we do not warrant their accuracy or completeness. We do not undertake to
advise the reader as to changes in figures or our views. This is not a solicitation of an order to buy or sell any securities.
BB&T Capital Markets is a division of Scott & Stringfellow, LLC, member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC. Scott & Stringfellow is a wholly owned nonbank subsidiary of BB&T Corporation. NOT
A DEPOSIT, NOT FDIC INSURED, NOT GUARANTEED BY THE BANK, NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY AND MAY GO DOWN IN VALUE.
The opinions expressed are those of the analyst(s) and not those of BB&T Corporation or its executives.
Important Information Regarding the Distribution of this Report in the United Kingdom
This report has been produced by BB&T Capital Markets and is being distributed in the United Kingdom (UK) by Seymour Pierce Limited (SPL). SPL is authorized and regulated in
the UK by the Financial Services Authority to carry out both corporate finance and investment services and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Although BB&T Capital
Markets is under separate ownership from SPL, BB&T Capital Markets has appointed SPL as its exclusive distributor of this research in the UK, and BB&T Capital Markets will be
remunerated by SPL by way of a fee. This report has not been approved for purposes of section 21 of the UK's Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, and accordingly is only
provided in the UK for the use of persons to whom communications can be made without being so approved, as detailed in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005.
Thom Albrecht
804-787-8210
31