Transcript Slide 1
“Forecasting”
What it’s really all
about…
By Laurie Lofgren
Vice President Planning & Forecasting
Warnaco Intimate Apparel
Warnaco – Strong Brands
Intimate Apparel
Sportswear
Swimwear
Warnaco – Diverse Customers
Department
Stores
Specialty
Retailers
Chain
Stores
Mass
Merchants
Membership
Clubs
International
Europe
R
Canada
Mexico
Asia
Main Focus
Tools
Process & Disciplines
S&OP
Collaboration
Continuous Improvement
Tools
Build the foundation
System is the enabler
Information = Visibility
Core
Systems
S&OP
Inventory
Planning
Demand Planning
Retail Planning
Point of Sale Analysis
System “POS Analysis”
Why Invest?
Increase Visibility
Increase Sales
Increase ROI
Maximize
Productivity
Implement VMI
Optimize
Assortments
Reduce
Markdowns
POS Analysis #1
Key Independent Store Account
Inventory Analysis by Door Rank
Product Lifecycle
Replenishment
Replenishment Total
Newness
Newness Total
Runnout
Runnout Total
Dropped
Dropped Total
Grand Total
Account
Rank
A
B
C
D
E
F
LV
A
B
C
D
E
F
LV
A
B
C
D
E
F
LV
A
B
C
D
E
F
LV
TY
Sales
6,825
12,600
20,775
25,088
15,938
6,900
3,863
91,913
3,038
5,325
8,550
9,750
5,738
2,438
1,275
36,113
38
150
300
525
375
225
113
1,763
38
113
338
675
713
638
450
3,000
142,313
Curr
Proj Fall
OH TY
Sls
17,738
34,088
38,213
62,963
77,363
103,875
125,438 120,375
79,613 100,388
61,838
34,425
36,450
19,313
459,638 452,325
7,388
15,188
17,738
26,625
35,025
42,825
50,363
48,713
37,875
28,688
22,013
12,188
13,200
6,300
180,525 183,600
150
263
375
750
750
1,463
1,125
2,700
1,275
1,838
863
1,200
525
638
5,025
8,813
225
225
413
525
863
1,763
1,200
3,450
1,275
3,600
1,238
3,150
563
2,175
5,775
14,925
711,638 732,450
Maximize
Productivity
Need vs.
Target
Target
%
Target
Inv $
Inv.
Variance
Inv.
$595,200
4,988
22%
22,725
$1,273,388
10,238
21%
48,413
$2,281,013
9,188
11%
86,550
$3,148,388
-938
-1%
119,438
$2,342,850
-11,925
-13%
88,425
$1,304,363
-12,675
-26%
49,163
$1,025,288
2,175
6%
38,625
1,050 $11,970,488
0%
453,375
$274,988
2,738
27%
10,125
$555,413
2,738
13%
20,475
$970,688
675
2%
35,700
$1,267,875
-3,975
-9%
46,388
$876,188
-6,038
-19%
31,875
$479,738
-4,613
-27%
17,400
$347,025
-563
-5%
12,600
$4,771,838
-9,038
-5%
174,600
$900
-113
-75%
38
$2,325
-263
-80%
75
$4,650
-563
-75%
188
$6,938
-825
-77%
263
$7,875
-938
-76%
300
$5,325
-638
-74%
225
$3,338
-413
-71%
150
$31,350
-3,750
-75%
1,238
$1,425
-150
-83%
38
$2,700
-300
-73%
113
$5,738
-638
-74%
225
$7,913
-900
-75%
300
$8,475
-938
-76%
300
$8,363
-938
-76%
300
$3,750
-413
-73%
150
$38,400
-4,350
-75%
1,463
-54,000 $18,229,613
-8%
678,450
POS Analysis #2
Optimize
Assortments
Key Department Store
Retailer #1 vs. Retailer #2 Sales & Inventory Comparison
Account TY STD LY STD
% Sls
Rank
Sales
Sales TY vs LY
A ++
18,263
18,525
-1%
A+
6,113
6,975
-12%
A
21,113
21,263
-1%
B
18,563
18,413
1%
C
9,488
9,188
3%
D
2,663
1,763
50%
Comp Total
76,163
76,163
0%
New Doors
A+
2,738
1,425
91%
A
938
750
26%
B
788
338
142%
C
4,125
1,988
107%
D
375
225
59%
Walk Over Total
9,000
4,763
89%
Retailer #1 Total
85,163
80,888
5%
Retailer #2
Account #1
A+
1,275
863
49%
A
6,150
3,938
56%
B
5,250
3,338
57%
C
3,638
2,100
72%
D
450
263
79%
Account #1 Total
16,725
10,500
59%
Account #2
A+
2,438
1,425
71%
A
4,425
2,963
50%
B
3,638
2,138
69%
C
3,713
2,363
57%
D
1,050
413
154%
Account #2 Total
15,263
9,300
64%
Retailer #2 Total
32,888
19,800
66%
Grand Total
118,050 100,688
17%
May-Fed
Retailer #1
Door Type
Legacy Doors
Avg
Avg
Wkly
Wkly
% OH
OH TY
OH LY TY vs LY
49,200
41,738
18%
12,788
11,025
16%
62,325
53,700
16%
64,125
49,725
29%
35,813
29,213
23%
10,388
6,225
67%
234,675 191,588
22%
7,913
5,625
40%
2,813
2,250
24%
2,250
1,050
112%
17,025
6,900
146%
1,650
1,088
50%
31,650
16,950
86%
266,288 208,538
28%
3,263
1,688
95%
25,200
12,375
104%
23,438
10,725
118%
18,750
8,438
122%
2,775
1,463
87%
73,425
34,688
112%
4,088
2,813
47%
11,438
8,325
37%
10,013
6,600
52%
12,788
8,888
44%
3,300
2,475
34%
41,625
29,100
43%
117,638
63,750
84%
383,925 272,325
41%
Turn
TY
1.9
2.4
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.1
3.0
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.5
Turn
LY
2.2
3.2
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.4
2.0
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.9
2.5
1.6
1.6
1.2
0.9
1.5
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.6
1.6
1.8
POS Analysis #3
Reduce
Markdowns
Key Collection Style # 1000 - Fashion Color Sell-thru
9/25/05 thru 11/25/05 Deliveries, First 17 weeks of selling from Intro Date
Geo Region
Northeast
Corp Rank
A+++
Account
DEPT STORE
110
110
100%
215
215
110
110
100%
1,385
1,185
33
40
86%
1,385
1,185
33
40
86%
CHAIN STORE
1,485
965
19
30
65%
DEPT STORE
1,600
1,170
15
20
73%
3,090
2,140
17
25
69%
2,515
1,590
12
20
63%
60
45
11
15
73%
DEPT STORE
A+ Total
A
CHAIN STORE
DEPT STORE
A Total
B
2,575
1,635
12
20
63%
CHAIN STORE
670
385
7
10
58%
DEPT STORE
240
160
8
10
67%
910
550
7
10
60%
CHAIN STORE
340
180
5
10
53%
DEPT STORE
25
10
5
10
38%
365
190
5
10
52%
270
115
5
10
42%
270
8,815
115
6,025
5
14
10
20
42%
68%
B Total
C
C Total
D
D Total
Northeast Total
Inv. Per
Door
% Sold
215
A++ Total
A+
Sales
215
A+++ Total
A++
Shipped
Sales
per
Door
CHAIN STORE
System
“Demand Planning”
Why invest?
Reduce Inventory
Improve Service
Increase Collaboration
DS FM
Statistical
Forecast
based on
Best Fit
Pyramid
based on
Consumer
Spending
Collect
“ALL”
Relevant
Information
Provides
Flexibility
Easy To Use
DSFM View #1
Historical Bookings
Seasonality Curve
Retail
Inventory
Account
Collaboration
System & Adjusted
Forecast
Account Forecast
DSFM View #2
POS History
Statistical
Based
Forecast
POS Based System Forecast
DSFM View #3
MTD Shipments
& Orders
Collect all
relevant
information
Current Open
Bulk Orders
Historical
Cancellations
Historical
Shipments
Historical Door
Distribution
DSFM View #4
Historical
Forecast
Forecast
Accuracy
Utilize
Forecast
Accuracy
DSFM View #5
Customer Forecast –
Unit Receipt Plan
?
Account
Collaboration
?
?
System
“Inventory Planning”
Why invest?
Reduce Inventory
Improve Service
Collaboration
(Capacity Planning)
DS RP
“Dynamic”
Inventory
Planning
Daily
Forecast
Updates
Automatic
PO
Generation
Exception
Reporting
Reporting
Systems
Provide Visibility
Emphasize Reporting
A successful implementation….
Clear Business Plan
Detailed Project Plan
DSFM
DSRP
Allocate the Resources
Prioritize & Execute
Training & Training
Continuous Refinement
DS Stores
Sales
Planning
S&OP
Process
&
Disciplines
Achieve results
S&OP a must
S&OP
What does it mean at Warnaco?
Formalized & Structured Process
Occurs on a Monthly basis
Synchronize “all” Plans
Cross functional ownership
2006
OCTOBER
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
2
3
2006
Thursday
4
Friday
5
6
Month End Roll
Demand Planning Process
9
10
Demand Planning Process
11
12
13
Demand
Meeting
Supply Planning Process
16
Supply Planning
17
Supply
Meeting
23
Run S&OP Plans
18
Demand & Supply
Reconciliation
Meeting
24
S&OP
Meeting
19
25
26
20
Run S&OP Plans
27
S&OP Process
Demand Planning Must Do’s
“Utilize” Forecast Accuracy
Collaboration with key accounts
Reconcile demand & production
Synchronize “all” plans
Monthly Demand Meetings
S&OP Process
Collaboration &
Communication
Synchronize & Reconcile
Replenishment
OTB
Production
Capacity
Demand Plan
Inventory
Financial
Joint Ownership & Smart Decision Making
General Mgmt
Sales
Involvement at all levels
Marketing
Operations
S&OP Disciplines
Warnaco USIA
Standard Operating procedures
Cut to Order - New & Fashion
Opp’s Confirm – New Doors & Model Builds
Critical Principles
One Number Forecast
All Demand is Forecasted
Supply = Demand
S&OP
Why is Warnaco doing this?
Ensure Ongoing Improvements
Establish “Best Practices”
Informed Decision Making
Increase teamwork
Success Stories
for Warnaco USIA
in 2006!
Improved Service
Increased Inventory Turn
Reduced SLOB’s
Increased Sales
What’s Next for Demand
Planning at Warnaco?
System Roll Out Europe
Expand Account Collaboration
Advanced utilization POS
Roll out Best Practices
Evolve S&OP
Main Focus
Tools
Process & Disciplines
Collaboration
Continuous Improvement
Q&A