Transcript Slide 1

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Migration and Singapore:
Trends, Issues and Policies
International Population Conference on
Migration, Urbanisation and Development
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
8 July 2013
Yap Mui Teng
Senior Research Fellow
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Introduction
• Immigration highly topical and highly controversial issue
in recent years
• “Angst and anxieties”
• Immigration in GE2011
• The level of unhappiness expressed has been
unprecedented – the trigger appears to be the influx of
foreigners allowed into the country for employment and
residence in the second half of the decade of the 2000s.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Trends
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Sources:
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and
Growth. August 2010. Department of Statistics Singapore. 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Population by Residency Status
Singapore Citizens
2,074.5
Singapore Permanent Residents
2,413.
3,047.1
Non-Residents
4,027.9
5,076.7
3,230.7
2,985.9
2,623.7
2,194.3
1,874.8
1305.0
754.5
138.8 60.9
87.8 131.8
311.3
112.1
1970
1980
1990
287.5
2000
541.0
2010
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 2. P. 3. Table 3. population by Age-Group and
Citizenship-Residentrial Status. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. August 2010.
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
• In 2010
– One quarter (25.7%) of the total population were
foreigners (non-citizen, non-PR)
– Another 10.7% were PRs
– 63.6% were citizens
Wong. K. L. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. Department of
Statistics Singapore . August 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
– 34.7% of the labour force were foreign (noncitizen, non-PR)
Sources:
Manpower research and Statistics Department. 2011. Report on Labour force in Singapore, 2010. Key Labour Indicators. P. xiii.
Ministry of Manpower. Accessed www.mom.gov.sg. 13 April 2011
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Non-residents (Foreigners), mid-2011
Employment Pass holders
12%
S Pass holders
8%
Work Permit holders (incl. FDWs)
60%
Dependants of Singapore Citizens, Permanent
Residents and Work Pass Holders
14%
Foreign Students
6%
Total
Total number
100%
1.39 million
Source: DPM Teo Chee Hean, Written Answer, 28 Feb 2012
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Source: Speech by Mr Wong Kan Seng, NPTD website
Wong. K. S. 2010. DPM’s Speech on Population at the Committee of Supply 2010. Chart 2. Immigration Trends, 2000-2009. 4 March 2010.
Accessed www.nptd.gov.sg. 29 March 2010.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
• Looking back:
– Immigration (in-migration) played an important role in
Singapore’s population growth for much of its history
– In 1819, reportedly 150 fisherfolks on the island
– In 1824, population reached 10,683, “entirely as a
result of migrational surplus” (Arumainathan, Census
1970 report)
– 1871 (first census), population was 97,111, “this
significant increase was essentially due to the inflow
of immigrants from China and India ….”
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 5. Demographic Trends and Change. P. 31..
Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Population Growth and Components, 1881-1970
Intercensal
Year
Population
Increase
Natural
Increase
1881-1891
43,857
Net
Population
Migrational
Growth
Surplus
Rate (%)
-30,932
74,789
2.8
Natural
Increase
(%)
-1.9
1891-1901
45,980
-42,542
88,522
2.3
-2.1
1901-1911
75,729
-59,978
135,707
2.9
-2.3
1911-1921
115,037
-35,594
150,631
3.3
-1.0
1921-1931
139,387
-18,176
121,211
2.9
0.4
1931-1947
380,399
178,296
202,103
3.3
1.5
1947-1957
507,785
395,571
122,214
4.4
3.3
1957-1970
628,578
595,614
32,964
2.8
2.6
Source:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 5. Demographic Trends and Change. P. 31. Table
5.2. Population Growth and Growth Components, 1881-1970. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Population Growth Rate and Rate of Natural Increase,
1931-2011
GR
12
GR(Res.)
RNI
10
RNI(Res.)
Per cent
8
6
4
2
0
2011
1991
1971
1951
1931
Source: Registry of Births and Deaths. Report on Registration of Births and Deaths. Immigration and Checkpoints Authority Singapore.
(Various years)
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Rationale for Immigration :
Demographic
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Resident Total Fertility Rate
Resident total fertility rate
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.20 (2011)
1.00
0.50
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source: Population White Paper, p.9
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Resident Fertility and Mortality Trends
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
3.07
1.82
1.83
1.6
1.16
45,934*
40,100
49,787
44,765
37,967
65.8
64.1
67.8
-
72.1
69.8
74.7
14.0
12.6
15.4
75.3
73.1
77.6
15.7
14.5
16.9
78.0
76.0
80.0
16.9
15.6
18.1
81.8
79.3
84.1
19.9
18.1
21.5
Deaths
10,717
12,505
13,891
15,693
17,610
Natural Increase
(Births-Deaths)
35,217
27,595
35,896
29,072
19,315
Total Fertility Rate
(births per woman)
Live Births
Life Expectancy (years)
At Birth
Male
Female
At Age 65
Male
Female
Source: Dept of Statistics
* All births
14
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Dependency and Support Ratios
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
Total Dependency Ratio (per
100 persons aged 15-64)
73.9
48.2
40.8
41.1
39.1
35.7
Young Dependency Ratio
(per 100 persons aged 15-64)
68.1
41.0
32.3
30.9
27.9
23.5
Old Dependency Ratio (per
100 persons aged 15-64)
5.9
7.3
8.5
10.1
11.2
12.2
Old-Age Support Ratio (per
elderly aged 65 and Over)
17.0
13.8
11.8
9.9
8.9
8.2
Source: Report on the State of the Elderly 2009 release 1, MCYS and Census of Population 2010
Advance Census Release, DOS.
15
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Per cent
Age Distribution 1980-2030 (%)
• A decline in proportion of young (0-14
years)
• A rise in proportion of old (65+ years)
• Proportion
of1990
middle2000
age band
1980
2005 (15-64
2030*
0-14
27.6
23.0
21.4
19.7
15.4
years)
continued
to
grow
as
a
result
of
15-64
67.5
71.0
71.2
72
65.9
65+
4.9
6.0
7.3
8.4
18.7
migrants.
• Immigration slowed the rate of ageing.
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
16
0-14
15-64
65+
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Rationale : Economic
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
“Economic growth is key (to a better life for
all Singaporeans)”
•
“… To do this, we need a critical mass of able and willing Singaporeans.
Able to adapt to and meet the changing needs of the global economy; and
Willing to do what is needed to ensure a better life for themselves, their
children and fellow Singaporeans.
•
“Singaporeans are indeed able and willing. But, there is just one problem –
there aren’t enough of us and our population is fast ageing. We have not
been replacing ourselves through local births since 1976 – 31 years ago.
Even assuming current immigration trends with an average of 8,000 new
citizens a year between 2001 and 2005, the number of deaths each year
could outstrip births as early as 2030. In fact, if we do not have an inflow of
new immigrants, our population will start to decline even earlier, by 2020,
like Japan’s in 2005. This is why we have decided that encouraging
immigration has to be a key strategy in tackling our population challenge”.
Source: DPM Wong Kan Seng, COS speech, 2 March 2007
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
• “For society as a whole, a declining old-age support ratio
would mean rising taxes and a heavier economic load on a
smaller base of working-age Singaporeans. A shrinking and
ageing population would also mean a smaller, less
energetic workforce, and a less vibrant and innovative
economy.
• “Companies may not find enough workers. Business
activity would slow, and job and employment opportunities
would shrink. It would become more difficult to match the
higher aspirations of a better educated and mobile
population. Young people would leave for more exciting and
growing global cities. This would hollow out our population
and workforce, and worsen our ratio of younger to older
Singaporeans”
Population White Paper 2013
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Issues:
Physical / Infrastructural
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Population Density by Census Year, 1901-2010
8,000
7,000
Persons per sq km
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1901
1911
1921
1931
1947
1957
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Sources:
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2011. Population Trends 2011. Table 1.1 Singapore Population Size and Growth by
Residential Status. Table A1.5. Population, 1871-2010. P. 58. September 2011. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 5 March 2012.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Issues: Integration / Identity
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Proportion Local Born
Year
1921
1931
1947
1957
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Population
(000s)
425.9
567.5
938.2
1,445.9
2,074.5
2,413.9
3,047.1
4,027.9
5,076.7
Local Born (%)*
29
37
56
64
74
78
76
67
57
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 8. Population by Country of Birth, 1947, 1957 and
1970. Table 8.4. Population by Birthplace, Census Years 1921-1970. P. 80. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Khoo. C. K. 1980. Census of Population 1980 Singapore. Release No. 1. Table 8. population by Census Division, Residential Status and Sex. p. 48.
Department of Statistics Singapore. Singapore.
Lau. K. E. 1992. Singapore Census of Population 1990. Demographic Characteristics. Table 3. Local and Foreign-Born Resident Population, 1980 and
1990. P. 3. department of Statistics. Singapore National printers. Singapore.
Leow. B. G. 2001. Census of Population 2000. Demographic Characteristics. Table 1. Resident Population by Age Group, Ethnic Group, Sex and
Residential Status. P. 35. Table 8. Resident population by Age Group, Country of Birth and Sex. pp. 55-56.Department of Statistics Singapore.
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. August 2010. Department of
Statistics Singapore . Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg.
Wong. W. K. 2011. Census of Population 2010. Statistical Release 1. Demographic Characteristics, Education, Language and Religion. Table 9.
Resident population by Place of Birth, ethnic Group and Sex. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
* Computed from sources
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Magnitude of Foreign Population
Total Population
(000s)
Non-resident Growth
Rate (%)
% Non-resident
1970
2,074.5
2.9
1980
2,413.9
5.5
8.0
1990
3,047.1
10.2
9.0
2000
4,027.9
18.7
9.3
2005
4,265.8
18.7
5.9
2006
4,401.4
19.9
9.7
2007
4,588.6
21.9
14.9
2008
4,839.4
24.7
19.0
2009
4,987.6
25.1
4.8
2010
5,076.7
25.7
4.1
2011
5,183.7
26.9
6.9
Sources:
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2011. Population Trends 2011. Table 1.1 Singapore Population Size and Growth by Residential
Status. Table A1.5. Population, 1871-2010. P. 58. September 2011. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 5 March 2012.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Sources of Non-residents, mid-2011
Southeast Asian countries
46%
Other Asian countries
47%
Other countries
7%
Total
100%
Source: DPM Teo Chee Hean, Written Answer, 28 Feb 2012
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Country of Birth of Foreign Born Population
Others (incl not
stated)
India/Pak/SL
3%
11%
Malaysia
11%
Indonesia
7%
1947
China/HK/Taiwa
n
India/Pak/SL
10%
68%
Others (incl not
stated)
4%
Malaysia
35%
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census
of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1.
Chapter 8. Population by Country of Birth,
1947, 1957 and 1970. Table 8.3. Population by
Country of Birth, 1947, 1957 and 1970. P. 80.
Department of Statistics Singapore. October
1973.
1970
China/HK/Taiw
an
46%
Indonesia
5%
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Country of Birth of Foreign Born Resident Population 2010
US, Canada
1%
Europe
2%
Aus, NZ
1%
Others
1%
Other Asia
10%
India/Pak/SL
14%
Malaysia
45%
China/HK/Taiwan
20%
Indonesia
6%
Sources:
Wong. W. K. 2011. Census of Population 2010. Statistical Release 1. Demographic Characteristics,
Education, Language and Religion. Table 8. Resident population by Age Group, Place of Birth and Sex.
Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Work Pass Framework
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Work Permit (WP) Holders
•
WP holders are semi-skilled and lower-skilled foreign workers such as
construction workers. The number of WP holders that a company can hire is
subject to various access control mechanisms including source (nationality)
restrictions and a Dependency Ratio Ceiling (DRC) that sets a cap on the
number of foreign workers the company can employ. Employers have to pay
monthly levies to hire WP holders.
•
We have introduced significant measures to moderate the inflow of Work
Permit holders, including raising the foreign worker levy and tightening the
levy tiers significantly, in phases, up to July 2013.
•
From July 2012, the DRCs for Services (from 50% to 45%) and
Manufacturing (65% to 60%) Sectors will be reduced. The Construction
sector, which employs more than one-third of all Work Permit holders
(WPHs), will also see further adjustments to moderate foreign manpower
demand.
Source: http://population.sg/dev/resources/work-passframework/
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
S Pass
•
S-Pass holders are middle-level skilled manpower such as associate
professionals and technicians. They must earn a fixed monthly salary of
at least $2,000 and are assessed on a points system based on multiple
criteria. The number of S Pass holders a company can employ is
capped at a sub-quota, or DRCs of the company's total workforce.
Employers have to pay monthly levies to hire employees who hold an S
Pass.
•
Significant measures to moderate the inflow of S Pass holders,
including raising the levy and tightening the levy tiers, in phases, up to
July 2013 have also been introduced. The qualifying salaries for S Pass
was raised in July 2011 to keep pace with rising salaries of the local
workforce.
•
The Sub-DRC for S Pass holders was also reduced from 25% to 20% in
July this year.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Employment Pass
• EP holders are higher-skilled foreign professionals, managers,
executives and specialists (PMEs).
• EP holders must earn a fixed monthly salary of at least $3,000 and
possess recognised qualifications. They are eligible to bring in their
family members on either Dependent Pass (DP) or Long Term Visit
Pass (LTVP).
• The qualifying salaries EP was also raised in July 2011 to keep pace
with rising salaries of the local workforce. We have tightened
eligibility requirements for EP holders entering lower and mid-level
professional, managerial and executive jobs since January 2012.
The more stringent requirements will include better educational
qualifications and higher qualifying salaries.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Immigration Framework
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
PRs
• PRs are granted to working individuals, or their spouses and
children. From 2007—2011, 48% of PRs were granted to
working individuals, and the remaining were dependants
(spouses and children) of SCs and PRs. 63% of all PRs
granted were under 30 years old and they help to mitigate our
ageing population. Most new PRs also have good educational
qualifications. Of those aged 20 and above, 74% had a
diploma or higher qualification.
• PRs are subject to greater obligations than non-residents. For
example, second generation male PRs are enlisted for
National Service. At the same time, while SCs receive more
benefits than PRs, PRs also receive more benefits than nonresidents, such as subsidies at restructured hospitals.
Source: http://population.sg/resources/immigration-framework/
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Citizenship
• Like PR applications, citizenship applications are subject
to a holistic and thorough assessment process. PRs are
granted citizenship only after they have completed the
Singapore Citizenship Journey and renounced their
foreign citizenships.
• From 2007—2011, 38% of new SCs were granted to
working individuals, while 62% were dependents. Like
new PRs, new citizens are generally young and have
good educational qualifications. 53% were under 30
years old, and of those over 20 years old, 61% had a
diploma or higher qualification.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Going forward (White Paper 2013)
Population
i. Encourage Marriage and Parenthood –
To create a family-friendly environment supported by the Government’s
Marriage & Parenthood Package …
ii. Remain Open to Immigration – To stop our citizen population from
shrinking and sustain the citizen population with a stable age distribution,
we will take in between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizens each year. The
citizen population could be between 3.5 and 3.6 million in 2020, and
between 3.6 and 3.8 million in 2030. We will grant about 30,000 PRs each
year, in order to maintain the PR population at between 0.5 and 0.6 million
for a stream of good quality candidates for citizenship;
iii. Enhance Integration Efforts – To help new immigrants adapt to our
local way of life and to reinforce our values and sense of belonging.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Economy
i. Create Good Jobs for Singaporean Core in Workforce – To
support a more qualified and skilled Singaporean workforce in a
dynamic economy where two out of three Singaporeans are in
Professional, Managerial, Executive and Technical (PMET) jobs in 2030
compared to about one in two today;
ii. Complement Singaporean Core with Foreign Workforce – To
have an overall workforce structure that serves our economic, social
and infrastructure needs;
iii. Moderate Overall Workforce Growth Rates to 1% to 2% per year
up to 2020, and about 1% per year up to 2030 – To drive the necessary
restructuring and productivity improvements, and to ensure that growth
is sustainable and does not outpace our infrastructure development.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
Living Environment
i. Plan and Invest in Infrastructure Ahead of Demand – To create
high quality urban spaces and ensure that our infrastructure can
support a range of population trajectories with a total population of
about 5.8 to 6.0 million in 2020, and 6.5 to 6.9 million in 2030;
ii. Implement Infrastructure Programmes – To expand our transport
network, build more public housing, health and community facilities,
and create new parks and interconnected green spaces all around
Singapore;
iii. Explore New Technology and Innovative Solutions – To expand
and optimise our land use, create new land capacity, and make use of
space more efficiently and effectively to enhance liveability and support
longer-term needs.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
White Paper hotly debated, particularly with
regard to immigration and projected
increase in population.
Not cast in stone – depends on future
development regarding marriage and
childbearing, productivity improvements,
etc.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas
END
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas