Transcript China’s Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency Policies for

Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector
Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
Tsinghua University, China
EASS Workshop
23rd September 2010, Beijing
Part A: Targets, Efforts and Results
WANG, Yanjia [email protected]
Part B: China LEAP Modeling Efforts
GU, Alun [email protected]
Targets
• National 11th Five-Year Plan(2006-2010):
20% reduction of energy intensity of GDP
10% reduction of pollutant emission
• National 12nd Five-Year Plan(2011-2015):
may be another 20% EE
• Commitment to Copenhagen (2006-2020):
40-45% of reduction of carbon intensity of
GDP
Efforts
• Adjust economic structure
• Improve energy efficiency
• Develop low-carbon energy resources
Energy Intensity of Value-added
EI (current price)
calorific value
calculation
coal equivalent
calculation
Primary
0.21
0.29
Secondary
1.58
1.50
Tertiary
0.45
0.60
EI (2005 constant price)
calorific value
calculation
coal equivalent
calculation
Primary
0.25
0.34
Secondary
1.74
1.65
Tertiary
0.50
0.67
Data before census
A Long Way To Go …
Achieve EE target heavily relay on structure changed, but..
100%
90%
Composition of GDP
80%
40.1
40
40.4
40.1
70%
60%
Tertiary
Secondary
Primary
50%
40%
47.7
48.7
48.5
48.6
12.2
11.3
11.1
11.3
2005
2006
2007
2008
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2009(measured by current price)
Direct Input Coefficient of InputOutput Table(2005)
Input
Output
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Primary
0.37920
0.06904
0.03317
Secondary
0.45264
0.76709
0.56483
Tertiary
0.16816
0.16388
0.40201
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2009
Infrastructure construction consumed more
energy-intensive products
1400
1200
1000
Steel(Mt)
Cement (Mt)
800
Ethylene (10,000t)
600
Chemical Fertilizer
(100,000t)
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2001--2009
Energy Efficiency in Power Generation Plants
Average coal input for thermal power generation (gce/kWh)
400
390
380
392
370
360
350
340
330
319
320
310
316
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
300
Measures: shut down small plants(200MW), build SC, USC power plants
(600MW, 1000MW per generator)
Mandatory Standards to Energy-intensive Products
• Published norms of energy consumption per unit
product in various industrial sectors (affected on
June 1st 2008).
• Including three levels of EE: for existing plants,
for new-built plants and for targeted plants.
• Covered crude steel, ferroalloy, coke, cement,
ceramics, flat glass, caustic soda, calcium
carbide, synthetic ammonia, yellow phosphorus,
copper, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, magnesium,
antimony copper and copper-alloy tube, wrought
aluminum alloy extruded profiles for architecture,
electrolyzed aluminum.
• More norms are under development.
Award Energy Saving Projects
• Central government: 300 yuan/tce
(savings ≥10,000tce/a)
• Some provincial government: 200300yuan/tce (10,000 ≤savings ≥thousands)
• A few city government: 100yuan/tce
Efforts in Transport Sector
• Build mass transit and inter-city rapid transit
system
• Consumption tax reduction(5% to 2.5%) to
compact cars and hybrid cars (2009)
• Fuel tax on petrol consumption (2009)
• Subsidy vehicle buyers if old car eliminated
(2009)
• Mandatory limitation of vehicle ages
• Fuel economy standards
Improving fuel efficiency by 19%
• GB19578-2004 Limits of Fuel Consumption for
Passenger Cars
– Stage I: effected July 1st 2005 for new certified cars;
July 1st 2006 for current produced cars
– Stage II: effected January 1st 2008 for new certified
cars; January 1st 2009 for current produced cars
• Covered 2374 types of vehicles and 95
manufacturers in stage II, 444 types of vehicles
(produced by 55 manufacturers) are failure to
meet the standard. The manufacturers had to
stop producing these 444 types of vehicles.
Traffic Makes Real Fuel Consumption Much
Higher than the Standards
Source: Jin Yuefu (2005)
EE in Building Sector
• Appliance standards and labels
• Design standards for new buildings (big
progress)
• Retrofit existing buildings (no progress)
• Monitoring governmental buildings (trial
stage)
Saving Targets: 30%, 50% & 66%
•
•
•
•
•
Regional based
Baseline: 1980’s standard
30% saving standard: 1986
50% saving standards: 1996
65% savings standards: under
development, effected in some regions.
Space-heating Standard in Beijing
Standards
Average
spaceheating load
(W/m2)
Heating system efficiency (%)
Boiler house
Network
System
Energy
intensity
(W/m2)
1980
31.7
55
85
46.75
67.8
30%
25.3
60
90
54
46.9
50%
20.6
68
90
61.2
33.7
65%
11.1
68
90
61.2
23.7
Source: Kang Yanbin 2008
More Specific Requirements (Beijing)
Building type
Resident
Office
Business
Department store
Hotel
Elec. Cons. (kWh/M2 a)
18
53
88
200
87
Air conditioning
8
18
30
110
46
Lighting
--
14
22
65
18
Appliances
--
20
32
10
14
Elevators
--
--
3
14
3
Water system
--
1
1
0.2
5.8
Cooling (GJ/ M2 a)
0.29 (8 kWh/M2 a)
0.15
0.28
0.48
0.32
Heat (GJ/ M2 a)
2.33
(65.kWh/M2 a)
0.20
0.18
0.12
0.30
Hot water(GJ/ M2 person)
--
--
--
--
12
Source: 2009 Annual Report of Energy Conservation of Buildings
Wind Power Development
Wind Power Installation Capacity (GW)
100
86
80
60
40
20
0
12
20
0.764
2004
2008
2009
2020
Solar Power Development
PV Installation Capacity (GW)
2.5
2
2
1.5
1
0.5
0.3
0.07
0.14
2005
2008
0
2009
2020
Installed Capacity of Power
Generation (1980 – 2008)
900
792.5
800
Gigawatts
700
600
500
391.4
400
277.3
300
166.5
200
100
65.9
0
1980
1992
1998
2003
2008
Mix of Installed Capacity of
Power Generation(2008)
Other,
1.4%
Hydro,
21.6%
Nuclear,
1.1%
Thermal,
75.9%
Results Vs. Target
Energy Intensity of GDP (tce/10k RMB)
1.3
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
1
2005
After census
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Build Baseline
Economic census of 2008
conducted in 2009.
Revised GDP and energy data.
GHG inventory of 2005 is under
development.
General Published Data Source
1. Statistical Communiqué: Published by National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in February of Year
X+1, using statistical data of January to
November Year X and the growth rate of
December Year X-1 to estimate GDP and
energy of Year X.
2. Yearbook: Published by NBS in autumn of Year
X+1 to present GDP and energy of Year X.
3. National Economic Census: Leading by State
Council and NBS. Published in January of Year
X+1. Conducted in Year X to investigate data of
Year X-1. Once in every 4 years.
GDP Data
• Communiqué 2008 estimated GDP of
2008 was 30.067 trillion RMB.
• Yearbook 2009 adopted the same number
(30.067 trillion RMB).
• GDP of 2008 was adjusted to 31.4045
trillion RMB after census, increased 4.45%.
• Communiqué 2009 estimated GDP of
2009 was 33.5353 trillion RMB.
GDP Adjustment – Big difference
in service sector
Before
census
After
census
30067
31404.5 1337.5
4.45%
First
3400
Industry
3370.2
-0.88%
Second 14618.3
Industry
14900.3 282
1.93%
Tertiary 12048.7
Industry
13134.0 1085.3
9.01%
GDP
Discrepancy
-29.8
Regular statistical system (Yearbook)
collects value-added data mainly from
designated size of organizations
Designated size of organization:
– Mining, Manufacture, Elec. Gas, Water: All state-owned
and non-state-owned enterprises with annual revenue
from principle business ≥5 million RMB
– Construction: various types of ownership with
qualification certification and independent accounting
systems
– Wholesale: Sales ≥20 million RMB; Employer (yearend)>20
– Retail: Sales ≥5 million RMB; Employer (year-end)>60
– Hotel: rating stars
– Catering: Sales ≥2 million RMB; Employer (yearend)>40
Other sectors: spot check
Census collects value-added data from
all organizations
Wholesale, Yearbook
retail, hotel &
catering
Census
Census/
Yearbook
(times)
10.16
Number of
enterprises
Employee
138,086
1,403,000
Revenue
187,656.8
247,483
1.25
Total assets
75,118.3
121,619
1.62
11,374,819 18,912,000 1.66
Only collect gross output value
from industrial enterprises by year
• Following former Soviet system, industrial
enterprise accounting didn’t use the
concept of value-add before 2009.
• The concept of value-add in constant price
is even more difficult than for industrial
enterprises.
• All value-add data for agriculture and
industrial sectors are estimated by national
and local statistical bureaus.
Key Energy Data Points
• Statistical Communiqué on the 2008 National
Economic and Social Development (issued on
February 26th 2009) estimated total energy
consumption of 2008 was 2.85 billion tce (coal
equivalent calculation).
• China Statistical Yearbook 2009 (published in
September 2009) adopted the same
number(2.85 billion tce).
• Total energy consumption of 2008 was adjusted
to 2.91 billion tce after census, increased 2.12%.
• Statistical Communiqué on the 2009 National
Economic and Social Development (issued on
February 25th 2010) estimated total energy
consumption of 2009 was 3.10 billion tce.
Energy Yearbook 2009 revised energy
consumption data from 2005 to 2007 based on the
results of the 2nd national economic census in
2009
Primary Energy Consumption (10ktce, calorific value calculation )
Version of Yearbook
2009
2008
Discrepancy to 2nd
census (%)
2005
225781
214466
5.28
2006
247562
235156
5.28
2007
268413
253488
5.89
2008
277515
--
--
Differences mainly in coal from 2nd census
Source: Energy Statistical Yearbook 2008, 2009
2007 Before census
After census
Discrepancy
(%)
Primary Energy
Consumption(104tce)
253488
268413
5.89
Coal (104ton)
258641
272746
5.45
Petroleum (104ton)
36570
36659
0.24
NG(108cu.m)
695
705
1.47
Hydro power
(108kWh)
4853
4853
0.00
Nuclear power
(108kWh)
621
621
0.00
Energy Efficiency Improvement
Before
census
GDP
Constant
price
Energy
Consumption
(coal
equivalent
calculation)
EI
GDP
Decrease Current
rate(%)
price
EI
2005
183217.4
224682
1.23
2006
204556.1
246270
1.20
2007
231228.4
265583
2008
252039
285000
Inflation
(%)
183217.4
0
1.83
212923.5
4.09
1.15
4.60
257305.6
11.28
1.13
1.55
300670
19.30
2009
Source
Statistical
Yearbook
2009
Energy
Statistical,
Communiqué
EI decreased 8.13% from 2005 to 2008.
Cal.
Cal.
Statistical
Yearbook
2009
Cal.
Energy Efficiency Improvement
After
census
GDP
(constant
price)
Energy
Consumption
(coal
equivalent
calculation)
EI
decrease
rate
(%)
EI
2005
184937
235997
1.276
2006
208442
258676
1.241
2007
237920
280508
2008
260687
2009
284680
GDP
current price
Inflation
(%)
184937
0
2.74
216314
3.78
1.179
5.04
265810
11.72
291448
1.118
5.20
314045
20.47
306600
1.077
3.16
335353
17.80
NSB
Document
2010
NSB
Document
2010
Calculated
by EI and
Energy
Source:
energy
Statistical
consumption
Communiqué
Cal.
EI decreased 12.38% from 2005 to 2008; decreased 15.6% from 2005 to 2009
Energy Efficiency Improvement
After
census
GDP
(constant
price)
calorific value calculation
coal equivalent calculation
Energy
Consumption (% of
hydro & nuclear)
Energy
Consumption(% of
hydro & nuclear)
EI
EI
2005
184937
225781 (2.5)
1.221
235997 (6.8)
1.276
2008
260687
277515 (3.0)
1.065
291448 (7.7)
1.118
△2008-
75750
51734
55451
2005
EI decreased 2005 to
2008
12.78%
12.38%
1.
Total energy consumption coal equivalent calculation based is not
transparent since the data of coal consumption per kWh generated
changed year by year and not be published formally.
2.
Prefer to use coal-based number since it shows a bigger share of clean
energy while 15% target was set by 2020.
3.
May be change to use calorific-based number since it shows a big
improvement on EI.
Part B: China LEAP Modeling Efforts
Basic Assumptions
•
•
•
•
•
Base year: 2000 ->2005
Target year: 2030
Dataset: AES2007 Draft
LEAP2008
Three scenarios: BAU (considering regional
cooperation), Maximum Nuclear Path(MaNS),
Minimum Nuclear Path(MiNS)
• Data source
Per capita GDP
• China’s per capita GDP is expected to be quadrupled by the
year 2020 as against 2000 in the report of 17th NCCPC on
October 2007.
2000 yr: 7078 RMB (856 US$)
2020 yr: 28000 RMB (3500US$,
not considering rate fluctuation)
2006 yr: 2024 US$
3500
2024
856
• This goal is much higher than the target set by the CPC five
years ago at the 16th National Congress which was to
quadruple the GDP value, without the mention of per capita
by 2020.
• But the rapid growth will be under the condition of reduced
consumption of resources and greater efforts in environmental
protection.
Per capita house area and
urbanization
Per capita house area (m2)
Projection
1978
1980
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
• Industrialization and
50
urbanization have
45
speeded economic
40
development.
35
• Per capita income will 30
25
increase and people 20
15
living level will be
10
improved.
5
• Although there is a big 0
income gap between
urban and rural
residents, per capita
house area is expected
to be similar by 2050.
Urban
Rural
The urban-rural income disparity
has been increased recently
Source: LI Shantong, 2006
Population and GDP assumptions
• The BAU scenario reflects a 20-year economic development path
that yields average annual GDP growth rates of 8.38% between
2010 and 2020 and 7.11% between 2020 and 2030.
• China’s population forecast in the model, adopting national
population plans and projections, shows the peak of total
population arriving between 2030 and 2040, at 1.47 billion people,
with continued and pronounced movement of population from
rural to urban area.
8
Year
2005
2010
2020
2030
Population
(million persons)
1308
1360
1440
1470
Urban HH
(million)
190
222
288
337
Rural HH
(million)
183
190
181
160
GDP (10
yuan RMB)
183132
290505
649852
1291047
Nuclear power scenarios
changes
2005
2010
2020
Installed
Installed
Installed
capacity
share
capacity
share
capacity
share
(GW)
(GW)
(GW)
8.7
1.60%
25
3.50%
45
4.50%
8.7
1.60%
20
2.80%
40
4.00%
8.7
1.60%
15
2.10%
30
3.00%
AES2006
S1
S2 (BAU)
S3
2005
AES2007
Installed
capacity
(GW)
Maximum Nuclear Path
BAU
Minimum Nuclear Path
AES2010
8.7
8.7
8.7
2005
Installed
capacity
(GW)
2010
Installed
capacity
(GW)
share
1.60%
1.60%
1.60%
25
15
12
2010
share
Installed
capacity
(GW)
2020
share
Installed
capacity
(GW)
3.5%
2.1%
1.7%
80
40
20
2020
share
Installed
capacity
(GW)
share
8%
4%
2%
2030
share
Installed
capacity
(GW)
share
Maximum Nuclear Path
8.7
1.60%
25
3.5%
80
8%
134
8%
BAU
8.7
1.60%
15
2.1%
70
7%
100
4%
Minimum Nuclear Path
8.7
1.60%
12
1.7%
60
6%
80
2%
Industry assumptions
• Based on China’s government policy, growth in the most
energy-intensive industrial sectors will be controlled and
mainly used to fulfill domestic needs, and energy efficiency
measures will be implemented in those sectors to enhance
energy savings.
• In the steel, cement, and pulp and paper sectors, for
example, physical output is projected to rise through 2020,
but then fall slightly (steel), remain unchanged (cement), or
rise only slightly (pulp and paper) through 2030.
• At the same time, the energy intensities per unit physical
product in these industries is projected, in the BAU path, to
fall by 1.0 to 1.8% annually, varying by industry and time
period (China Low Carbon Scenario, 2009).
Results for BAU Scenario
• BAU Scenario Energy Demand by Sector, 2000-2030
4500
Agriculture
Transport
Commerce
3500
Industry
3000
Households
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
0
20
Million Tonnes Coal Equiv.
4000
Results for BAU Scenario
• BAU scenarios transport energy demand, 2000-2030
Million Tonnes Coal Equivalent
1200
Passenger Transport
1000
Freight Transport
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Results for BAU Scenario
• BAU Scenario Final Energy Demand by Fuel, 2000-2030
4500
Million Tonnes Coal Equiv.
4000
3500
Biomass
Crude Oil
Heat
Oil Products
Renewables
Coal Coke and Peat
Electricity
Natural Gas
Other fuels
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Results for BAU Scenario
• BAU Energy Supply Outputs by Fuel, 2000-2030
5000
Other fuels
4000
Oil Products
Natural Gas
Heat
3500
Electricity
Crude Oil
3000
Coal Coke and Peat
Biomass
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
0
20
Million Tonnes Coal Equiv.
4500
Results for three Scenarios
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2000-2030, Three Scenarios for
China
12000
10000
Maximum nuclear path
Minimum nuclear path
8000
6000
4000
2000
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
0
20
Million Tonnes CO2 Equiv.
BAU Reference
Conclusions
• China has experienced rapid growth in energy consumption in the
recent years. Large amounts of investment have been provided for
the power industry and for oil stockpile facility construction to secure
energy supplies to support rapid economic growth.
• To realize China’s sustainable development, the national energy
development strategy includes an energy conservation priority policy,
and at the same time is vigorously developing renewable energy
and new energy in China. A cleaner energy system and energy
development strategy are needed, and should be established
through government involvement leading to changes in all
production processes and lifestyles through the applications of laws,
regulations and fiscal policies.
• Vehicle emission problems in particular require special attention,
especially those associated with increases in freight and passenger
transport energy consumption.