Transcript IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The Netherlands and
IIASA Highlights
(2008-2015)
May 2015
CONTENTS
1. Summary
2. National Member Organization
3. Some Leading Dutch Personalities Associated with
IIASA
4. Research Partners
5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
6. Capacity Building
7. Further Information
SUMMARY (2008-2015)
National Member
Organization
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Membership start date
1977
Research partners
45 organizations in the Netherlands
Areas of research
collaborations
Research collaborations to tackle climate change
Advancing energy and integrated assessment modeling in the
Netherlands
Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands
Projecting demographic change in the Netherlands
Increasing flood resilience
Smarter ways to manage the agricultural and forestry sectors
Analyzing global and European water challenges
The future of fisheries and other evolutionary studies
Capacity building
21 doctoral students from the Netherlands have participated in
IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern
African version
Publication output
341 publications have resulted from IIASA-Dutch collaborations
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
• The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific
Research (NWO)
• Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO,
is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands
• Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth &
Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the
NMO Secretary for the Netherlands
SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS
AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Paul Crutzen
Leen Hordijk
Tjalling Koopmans
Peter Nijkamp
Pavel Kabat
Wim C Turkenburg
RESEARCH PARTNERS
• 45 institutions in the Netherlands, including:
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Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
KWR Watercycle Research Institute
Leiden University
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)
Royal Dutch Shell
University of Groningen
Utrecht University
VU University Amsterdam
Wageningen University
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100
• Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands
• Projecting changing population in the Netherlands
• European flood risk could double by 2050
• Climate change, energy & water nexus
• Better forest management could reduce forest fire danger in Europe
• Identifying climate impact hotspots on crop yields, water availability,
ecosystems, and health
• Improved fishing policies
• Research into policy
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & Dutch partners:
MESSAGE
(IIASA)
AIM
(NIES)
GCAM
(PNNL)
IMAGE
(PBL)
Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011).
Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic
Change, 109(1-2).
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GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE
NETHERLANDS
• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global
energy policy agenda—one that
transforms the way society thinks about,
uses, and delivers energy.
• Significant Dutch contribution:
– 5 Convening Lead Authors
– 15 Lead Authors
– 4 Contributors & 13 Reviewers
• One notable outcome: GEA guides
targets of UN Secretary-General’s
Sustainable Energy For All Initiative
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
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PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Base Year 2010
To update with Finland
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
16.6 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
17.9 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP1
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
19 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Base Year 2010
To update with Finland
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
16.6 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Projections 2030 - SSP5
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
18.5 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Age (in Years)
Netherlands - Projections 2060 - SSP5
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
22.1 Million
Males
0.8
0.6
Females
0.4
0.2
0.0
Population in Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS
Decrease in thermoelectric power
generating capacity due to lack of
cooling-water
Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European
electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.
EUROPEAN FLOOD RISK
COULD DOUBLE BY 2050
Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk
finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: 10.1038/nclimate2124
BETTER FOREST MANAGEMENT COULD REDUCE
FOREST FIRE DANGER IN EUROPE
Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy
Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca. 2014. Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental
Change. September 2014. Doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0
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IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS ON CROP YIELDS,
WATER AVAILABILITY, ECOSYSTEMS, AND HEALTH
Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES
• Northern Cod stock collapsed in
1992 and has not recovered
since
• Heavy exploitation favors earlier
maturation at smaller size
• We have documented a
15% drop in age at maturation
and a 30% drop in size at
maturation
• Such evolutionary impacts
of fishing are very slow and
difficult to reverse
• New tool: Evolutionary Impact
Assessments (Science
318:1247, Science 320:48)
Size at 50% maturation
probability at age 5 (cm)
80
70
Moratorium
60
50
40
30
1975
1992
Nature 428:932
2004
RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example)
Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a
new package of measures to reduce air
pollution. Poor air quality is the number one
environmental cause of premature death in the
European Union. By 2030, the package will:
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Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths
Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution
(more than half the area of Romania)
Save 19 000 km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.
IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every
step of this process.
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CAPACITY BUILDING
• 20 doctoral students studying in the Netherlands have won places
on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.
CAPACITY BUILDING
Southern-African Young
Scientist Summer
Program: (SA-YSSP)
•
Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 &
VU University Amsterdam) quantified
water flow regulation within a semi-arid
catchment and investigated the impact
of implementing rainwater harvesting
for more optimal water flow regulation.
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA
www.iiasa.ac.at
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research
(NWO)
www.nwo.nl