Transcript Water Pressure: Population Growth and the Middle Eastern

Water Pressure: Population
Growth and the Middle Eastern
and North African Water Crisis
By Ariella Kirtley
Holly Niebergall & Amy Schultz
Water scarcity: an average total renewable fresh water
resource of less than 1,000 cubic meters per
person per year.
Absolute scarcity: below 500 cubic meters per person per year.
Management[1]
[1]
Ancient Quanat in Iran [2]
Ataturk Dam in Turkey [3]
POPULATION[4]
– In 1960 , MENA's population was approximately 100 million.
– By 2007 this number quadrupled to 432 million.
– Estimates expect the region's population to reach 700 million by 2050.
WATER SCARCITY[1]
Water scarcity is estimated by looking at the population to water equation.
Renewable water is defined as water in streams, aquifers, lakes, etc. that can be
renewed over time by the water cycle of evaporation, accumulation and
percipitation.
– According to the 2007 MENA Development Report, per capita renewable water
resources in the region 1950 were 4,000 m3 per year.
– Currently, per capita renewable water resources are 1,100 m3 per year.
– Projections indicate that this number will reach 550 m3 per person per year in
2050, compared to a global average of 8,900 m3 per person per year today and
about 6,000 m3 per person per year in 2050, when the world’s population is
projected to reach more than 9 billion.
MENA’s life expectancy is increasing, and although fertility has started declining,
statistics show that one in every three people living in the region is between ages 10
and 24 [4], creating a “youth bulge”.
[2]
The following factors also contribute to increased population and therefore increased
pressure on the region’s already stressed water supply:
– Urbanization; and
– Migration.
DESALINATION
Desalination is the process of removing salt from seawater to make it potable, or fit for
consumption.
Thermal, or Distillation Process
With the thermal process, seawater is heated and the steam is collected and condensed.
– Multi-Stage Flash (MFS)
– Multiple Effect (ME)
– Vapor Compression (VC)
Membrane Process
With the membrane process, seawater is filtered through a membrane which traps the
salt.
– Electro Dialysis (ED)
– Reverse Osmosis (RO)
DESALINATION ISSUES & POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
Cost
Unfortunately, the energy required for this desalination today makes it
prohibitively expensive on for many countries. Thus, most of the Middle
Eastern countries using desalination technology on a large-scale are oil-rich
countries with money to invest in the technologies and a supply of low-cost
energy.
Research has shown that as
experience and technology have
developed, including through major
investments by Israel and other nonoil-producing countries, production
costs for desalination have fallen[1].
Land Use [5]
Most desalination plants are located near the shoreline, which uses valuable
land that could otherwise be used for tourism or wildlife preservation. A plant
that produces 100 million m³/y of freshwater requires about 25 acres of land.
One possible solution to minimize
land use in coastal areas is to locate
the plants further inland..
Groundwater
Supplies [5]
The danger of leaks developing in the pipes that pump seawater and brine to
and from the plants exists even when the plants are located relatively close to
the shoreline.
The risk of such leaks developing
can be minimized by using proper
sealing techniques when laying the
pipes and installing detectors so that
leaks can be corrected soon after
they develop.
The Marine
Environment
The main impact on the marine environment comes from returning the
remaining brine to the sea after desalinating the water.
The issue, then, is to create a method
for dispersing the concentrated brine
into the surrounding water to
ameliorate its effect on the marine
environment.
The energy consumption of desalination plants has an indirect impact on the
environment, since an increase in the production of energy means an increase
the fuels being burned. Although energy consumption varies from between
plants and different technologies, an average plant producing 100 million m³/y
water would require an electrical output of 5O-60 MW. Producing one MW of
energy requires 353.8kg of coal or 234.9kg of crude oil[5]
.
Through support of UNESCO, in
2005 a pilot solar powered direct
osmosis desalination plant was
installed in Turtkul village of the
Aral Sea region[6].
[5]
Energy
Consumption
PRESENTATION SOURCES
[1] MENA Development Report: Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability for Better Water
Management in the Middle East and North Africa. 2007. Washington (DC): The International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The World Bank.
[2] http://www.cais-soas.com/CAIS/Images2/Sasanian/Fire_Temples/Gor_Gor_Bridge.jpg
[3] http://www.jica.go.jp/turkey/img/ataturkbaraj.jpg
[4] Roudi-Fahimi F, Kent M. 2007. Challanges and Opportunities: The Population of the Middle
East and North Africa. Volume 63, No. 2. Population Reference Bureau. p. 5
[5] Einav R, Harussi K, Perry D. 2002. The footprint of desalination processes on the
environment. Desalination 152 (2002).
[6] Khaydarov Rashid, Khaydarov Renat. Solar Powered Direct Osmosis Desalination.
ScienceDirect [Internet]. 2007 [cited 2007 Nov 20]. Volume 217, Issues 1-3, 5, Pages 225232. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/.