Transcript Slide 1
The State of the Church in Utah 1990-2000
Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Utah, and what the complete “State of the Church in Utah” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Utah that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UUT20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect.
Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in Utah Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Utah?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Utah will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Utah has the lowest attendance percentage in the nation (3.1%), much lower than the national average (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5
14.8% CA 14.0% WA 14.5% OR 9.7% NV 15.1% AK 11.4% ID 3.1% UT 14.3% AZ 17.5% MT Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 14.0% WY 15.2% CO 17.8% NM 11.8% NH 29.4% ND 28.0% SD 23.8% NE 19.1% TX 22.7% KS 22.0% OK 23.2% MN 29.4% LA 13.2% VT 11.2% ME 24.7% IA 24.6% 21.5% MO AR WI 25.0% 20.3% IL 26.7% MS 15.5% NY 20.6% MI 20.5% PA 20.3% OH 21.7% IN 17.4% WV 18.0% VA 22.1% KY 23.5% TN 26.9% AL 22.7% NC 23.3% GA 23.3% SC 16.0% NJ 14.4% 28.6% DC 16.0% DE 17.7% MD MA 20.1% RI 17.2% CT 15.1% FL 13.4% HI
0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Utah. (No Data indicates no Christian churches of that type in that county) © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7
Utah Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Christian Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
1.9% Box Elder 4.8% Tooele 1.5% Cache Rich 4.7% Weber 2.3% Davis 0.3% Morgan 3.7% Salt Lake 0.4% Wasatch 7.6% Summit 1.5% Duchesne 0.8% Utah 0.0% to 1.4% 1.4% to 2.5% 2.5% to 8.7% No data 0.0% Daggett 3.8% Uintah 0.5% Juab 7.7% Carbon 0.3% Sanpete 2.2% Millard 0.9% Emery 1.4% Sevier 1.7% Beaver Piute 0.3% Wayne 2.5% Iron 0.1% Garfield 2.1% Washington 4.9% Kane © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7.2% Grand 1.7% San Juan 8
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county in Utah. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9
Utah Counties 2000 Population
42,745 Box Elder 40,735 Tooele 91,391 Cache 1,961 Rich 196,533 Weber 238,994 Davis 7,129 Morgan 29,736 Summit 898,387 Salt Lake 0 to 10,000 10,000 to 40,000 40,000 to 898,388 921 Daggett 15,215 Wasatch 14,371 Duchesne 368,536 Utah 25,224 Uintah 8,238 Juab 20,422 Carbon 22,763 Sanpete 12,405 Millard 10,860 Emery 8,485 Grand 6,005 Beaver 1,435 Piute 18,842 Sevier 2,509 Wayne 33,779 Iron 4,735 Garfield 90,354 Washington 6,046 Kane © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 14,413 San Juan 10
Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Utah in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12
1990 Ethnicity of Utah Hispanic 5% Non-Hispanic Black 1% Asian 2% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic White
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13
Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Utah 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -6.6% -20.0% Non-Hispanic White 58.5% 87.1% Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian 52.7%
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Utah in 1990 and 2000. Overall, there has been an increase in the last decade of the number of people attending church. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has slowly increased, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16
Utah Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 23,093 28,674 20,000 10,000 11,364 12,408 21,772 26,883 57,797 69,538
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Utah in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19
Utah 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance Evangelical, 1.3% Mainline, 0.6% Catholic, 1.2%
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent
Absent, 96.9%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Utah - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population - 1990 & 2000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -4.2% Evangelical -15.8% -4.7% -7.2% Total Mainline Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Utah. Notice that every group is declining in percentage of the population attending.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22
Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families
Utah 1990-2000 Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church by "Denominational Family" 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -3.1% -0.8% -4.7% -8.0% -10.0% -11.4% -12.0% -12.2% -12.8% -13.0% -14.0% Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use
Other
Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic Other 25
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 26
1990 & 2000 Average Church Attendance 900 800 700 600 200 100 500 400 300 91 98 124 131 109 110 112 115 Evangelical Mainline 294 379 794 794 132 143 172 175 Catholic Total
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1990 Utah 2000 Utah 1990 US Average 2000 US Average 27
Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Utah in 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 29
Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County
Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County
Utah Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
0.5% Beaver 1.0% Iron 0.9% Washington 0.8% Box Elder 3.8% Tooele 0.3% Juab 0.1% Millard 0.6% Cache Rich 1.7% Weber 0.8% Davis 0.0% Morgan 1.7% Salt Lake 0.3% Utah 0.3% Wasatch 2.9% Summit 0.3% Duchesne 0.0% to 1.0% 1.0% to 2.0% 2.0% to 4.8% No data Daggett 0.7% Uintah 3.8% Carbon 0.1% Sanpete 0.2% Emery 1.4% Grand 0.3% Sevier Piute 0.1% Wayne 0.0% Garfield 0.2% San Juan 0.7% Kane
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 9 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 19 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 33
Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Utah between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 10 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 14 counties declined. For mainline churches, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 16 counties declined. For Catholics, 12 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 15 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 35
Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County
Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County
Utah Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday
15% Beaver 165% Iron 108% Washington 43% Box Elder 16% Tooele -81% Juab -15% Millard 5% Cache Rich -30% Weber 14% Davis -100% Morgan -5% Salt Lake -67% Wasatch 132% Summit -55% Duchesne 103% Utah Decline Growth No data -100% Daggett -8% Uintah -7% Carbon -32% Sanpete 101% Emery -20% Grand -69% Sevier Piute 46% Wayne -100% Garfield -42% San Juan 14% Kane
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches in Utah in the past decade. There was a net gain of 48 churches. However, 130 churches were needed to keep up with population growth in Utah from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 39
Increase in Churches in Utah Between 1990 & 2000 130 40 20 0 -20 140 120 100 80 60 41 Evangelical 9 -3 48 Mainline Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total Gain Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population
For More Information . . .
Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm.
htm The complete Utah Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UUT20.htm
The Complete Salt Lake City Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/SaltLakeCity.htm
A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Utah and Salt Lake City Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/UT0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41
The State of the Church in Utah . . .
Church attendance has grown numerically for all groups. However, because of rapid population growth, each group decreased in the percentage of the population attending church. This has resulted in a 7% decrease in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in the growing areas of Utah. Eighty-two additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42
A Final Note
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints is also having a hard time keeping up with population growth in Utah. From 1990 - 2000, the percentage of the population that was a member of a LDS church declined in 32 of the 33 counties.
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43
Information on the Information
The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 44
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.
1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 45
For More Information . . .
Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at [email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 46