Transcript Slide 1

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)
and the
Plant Epidemiology and Risk
Analysis Laboratory (PERAL)
USDA, APHIS, PPQ
Center for Plant Health Science and Technology
Raleigh, North Carolina
Outline
Part I: Overview - who we are
Part II: Introduction to PRA
Our Mission:
…Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based
processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and
technical information for identifying and managing pest
risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the
protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and
export of agricultural commodities.
What we do:
The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and
evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health
threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests,
including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and
related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.
A Glimpse into PERAL’s World
PERAL’s world is populated by:
Robert Griffin, PERAL Director
20 Entomologists
11 Plant Pathologists
2 Ecologists
2 Botanists
1 Statistician
1 Economist
2 Biological Science Technicians
1 Librarian
1 Training Specialist
1 Technical Editor
2 Cooperators
1 IT Specialist
2 Administrative Assistants
2 Assistant Directors
1 Director
Total = 50 Staff
Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis
Develop and apply methods
that evaluate, predict, or
describe pest outbreak or
spread, including:
GIS
Modeling
Statistics
Economics
Commodity RA
Organism RA
Pathway RA
Risk management
Export support
Responsibilities
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Perform pest risk analyses (PRA)
Analyze risk-based operational questions
Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures
Provide scientific support to facilitate exports
Evaluate new pests and imminent threats
Research scientific and technical questions
Collect and manage pest risk information
Related activities
• Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and
methodologies
• Analyze offshore pest dynamics
• Identify data needs for risk-based decision
making
• Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk
prediction, modeling, and management
• Provide leadership to international and regional
standard-setting
Collaboration & linkage
• PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field)
• ARS (data, research needs, review)
• Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service)
• Technical experts (universities, other agencies,
international organizations)
• Stakeholders (States, producers)
• Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of
Excellence, research orgs)
Projects
• Long-term: 90 days to several years
– Typically require a budget
– Assigned and prioritized by the Agency
• Ongoing: Operational/functional
– New Pest Advisory Group
– Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56)
• Ad hoc: less than 90 days
2009 Productivity
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31 commodity assessments
19 organism assessments
64 new pest (NPAG) assessments
7 pathway and operational assessments
19 collaborative assessments
Database mgmt.
Capacity building
Standard setting
Ad Hoc Projects
Tolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes
exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato
(nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm))
Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard
sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source:
www.avocadocentral.com))
Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus
Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex
noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (www.forestryimages.org))
DoD Projects started in 2009
Wood Packaging with
Ammunition to Europe
• Export analysis
• Prove that untreated
wood is low risk
• Statistically designed
sampling
• Negotiation required
Base movement from
Okinawa to Guam
• Large pathway analysis
• Multiple pests and
multiple pathways
• Huge data collection
challenge
• Collaboration with
other agencies
Capacity Building, Training, and
Regulatory Curriculum
International training
Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas,
pest management, etc.
Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program
RA 101 training every year (summer)
Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing
Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU
- Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU
- Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU
Library Services
• Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library
of Congress classification order with electronic
catalog and checkout system
• 17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific
references in searchable electronic format
• Collections of posters, maps, photographs
Lucy Reid
PERAL Information Specialist
New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG)
Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent
threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and
recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take
Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations
Amaryllis weevil, undescribed
genus & species
Botryotinia sphaerosperma
Achatina fulica
NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting
Internet tool for pest prediction and detection
Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens,
and weeds
On-line national and international weather and climate databases
Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and
climate match
View of the NAPPFAST interface showing
map viewing capabilities. The map depicts
the predicted risk of one or more days
suitable for maize wilt infection in North
America based upon 10 years of derived
soil temperature data.
Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org)
The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system
of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO)
Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line
with CPHST’s mission to identify
pathways used by exotic pests and
weeds, and to assess the risks posed
by these pests
CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35%
of their work week
The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD)
Information provided includes: host
range, distribution maps, biology,
control, images (provided by
UGA), links to related APHIS
documents, references, etc.
PART II
Introduction to PRA
Initiation
• Request
• Prerequisites
• Prioritization
• Quarterly
• Assignment
• One + team
• Time
• Weeks to years
Analysis
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Comprehensive Pest List
Quarantine Pest List
Pathway List
Pest Analysis
• Identify Mitigations
• Formulate Recommendations
Literature review,
expert and country
consultation
Optional country
consultation
Initiation
Describe the concern which has created the need.
Understand the background and expectations.
Identify
hazard(s)
Estimate the
likelihood of
occurrence
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
Develop recommendations
and describe uncertainty
Decisionmaking
Estimate the magnitude
of the consequences
Mitigation
requires
assessment
Evaluate mitigation options for:
-Efficacy
-Feasibility
-Impacts
Develop conclusions
and describe
uncertainty
Risk
requires
mitigation
Identify mitigation
options
Evaluate recommendations against the current environment
and values to select an option.
Risk Assessment Questions
• What information is available?
• What quantity and quality of
information?
• What can go wrong (if nothing is
done)?
• What is the likelihood?
• What is the magnitude of the
consequences?
Elements of Pest Risk Assessment
Likelihood (X)
Consequences (+)
• Associated with host or
pathway
• Escapes certification
• Survives transit
• Undetected at entry
• Provided a favorable
environment
• Able to
reproduce/spread
• Direct economic or
health damage potential
• Indirect damage
potential
• Environmental damage
potential
• Perceived damage
potential (social,
political, aesthetic, etc.)
Risk Management Questions
• What can be done to eliminate or
mitigate the hazard?
• How effective are the options?
• How feasible are the options?
• What impacts do the options have?
• What is the recommended option?
• What is the level of uncertainty?
Variability and Uncertainty
• Variability is not reduced with more or
better information
• Uncertainty may be:
– modelling or measurement errors
– gaps in information
– incorrect assumptions
Risk Communication
• Two-way exchange of information
– consulting
– informing
– explaining or justifying
• Not for consensus, but understanding
• Demonstrates openness and concern
Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis
Laboratory
1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300
Raleigh, North Carolina USA
27606-5202
Tel: +1-919-855-7512
Fax: +1-919-855-7595
http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/cphst/per
al.shtmlhttp:/