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Cultures, Technology, and a Sustainable World View Pete Kaslik Overview of this Lecture Why is a Math Teacher Talking About a Sustainable World View? A Brief History of Humanity A Graphic Look at Humanity’s Current Situation – The Good, the Bad and the Scary Choosing a Goal For Humanity How To Achieve the Goal Why is a Math Teacher Talking About a Sustainable World View? • • • • • When will I use this? Not all math has authentic real world applications Show, don’t tell Math 107 has liberal course outcomes Theme-based vs diverse Why is this Math Teacher Talking About a Sustainable World View? • Increased understanding that my view of the world has been influenced by my culture, other people and things I’ve read • I have wondered how many times experts were wrong about what they taught. So how much of what I now believe to be true is also wrong? • What if we could strip away all cultural influences and expert opinions and give as unbiased as possible assessment of the current state of the Earth? A brief history of Humanity This graph about "hominids“ refers to members of the family of humans, Hominidae, which consists of all species on our side of the last common ancestor of humans and living apes. http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/homs/species.html A Brief History of Humanity Population Culture Technology / http://www.south-africa-tours-and-travel.com www.freewebs.com/msprzeklas/syllabus.htm http://seattleplace.com/images/Seattle_Skyline_Referral_Postcard.jpg Technology • Technology is the temporary state of matter as it transitions from being a resource to a useless element in a sink. Feedback Loop • Population + + + • Technological Development Cultural Development • Thousands of cultures on this planet • Probably millions or billions if life exists on other planets • Most accept the culture into which they were born Cultural Development “Other cultures are not a failed attempt at being us. They are a unique expression of what it means to be human and alive.” (Wade Davis) Other Cultural Ideas I Learned this Summer From “Don’t Sleep, There Are Snakes” by Daniel Everett – A book about the Pirahã (pee-da-HAN) • Treat young children as adults • Don’t understand war or suicide • Expect proof of claims • No creation myths or death myths • Non-materialistic • Do not seek revenge Other Cultural Ideas I Learned this Summer From “Born to Run” by Christopher McDougall – A book about the Tarahumara (Raramuri) • Running is a cultural value • The sole means of competition • Runs of 30 to 100 miles in a day are common • Gentle people who run from trouble My View of the Dominant Culture of Today • Individuals are more important than the community • Increasing individual and corporate wealth (and power) is the goal • Strive to be number 1 • Technology is always better than “non-technology” Cultural Transitions • Some cultures grew to become the dominant culture in a region or world • In spite of their population, cultural values and technology, all past dominant cultures are no longer dominant. • Can this happen to the US? • Can this happen to humanity? Reasons for the Collapse of Former Great Societies (from Collapse, by Jared Diamond) • • • • • Environmental collapse Climate change Hostile neighbors Decreased support of friendly neighbors Society’s response to its problems What if We Could Pick Our Cultural Ideas? • Shop at the Anthropology Super Mall • Each cultural idea would need a list of side effects • What would be the criteria for picking cultural values? Judging Our Cultural World Views • • • • • By knowledge? By technology? By health and longevity? By happiness? By the length of time the culture has survived? A Cultural Criterion • I propose we judge cultural world views by both their short term and the long term consequences to people, nature and the planet. • Short term – immediate though 1 generation • Long term – 1 to 1,000 generations A Graphic Look at Humanities Current Situation • The Good • The Bad • The Scary Quantitative Assessment of the World (QAW) • A mathematical (graphic) look at the short term consequences of the dominant culture’s world view with implications for the long term consequences Health and Wealth • Gapminder World Knowledge Scientific Papers Published Each Year http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/10/the_expansion_o.php Technology http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/10/the_expansion_o.php US Population Graph World Population Graph Gini Coefficient / http://www.visualeconomics.com/income-distribution-by-country Gini Coefficient http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient Consequences of Wealth Disparity Income Inequality and Homicides (r = 0.47, p = 0.02) SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Income Alternative Poverty Estimates in the United States: 2003, Report P60, n. 227, Tables B-1 and B-3, pp. 18, 20. Consequences of Wealth Disparity Income Inequality and Social Mobility (r = 0.93, p < 0.01) http://www.globalissues.org/article/4/poverty-around-the-world#WorldBanksPovertyEstimatesRevised National Debt Health Care http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/spend.php Prison Population Peak Oil in the US 240,000,000 14 220,000,000 12 200,000,000 10 180,000,000 8 160,000,000 6 140,000,000 4 120,000,000 2 100,000,000 0 80,000,000 U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Million Barrels Per Day )(L) U.S. Consumption of Crude Oil (Million Barrels Per Day )(L) US Population(R) US Population 16 Mar-2023 260,000,000 Jul-2009 18 Oct-1995 280,000,000 Feb-1982 20 Jun-1968 300,000,000 Oct-1954 22 Jan-1941 320,000,000 May-1927 24 Sep-1913 Quantity (Million Barrels Per Day) U.S. Crude Oil Daily Production and Consumption and US Population Peak Oil in the World World Oil Production and Consumption http://www.eia.doe.gov 90 85 Million Barrels of Oil per Day 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Production 1990 1995 Consumption 2000 2005 2010 Oil Discoveries Source: www.aspo-ireland.org Source: www.aspo-ireland.org http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php Summary of Oil Production Status • Of the 65 largest oil producing countries, 54 have passed their peak Country United States Peak Prod. 2008 Prod. % Off Peak Peak Year 11297 7337 -35% 1970 Venezuela 3754 2566 -32% 1970 Libya 3357 1846 -45% 1970 Kuwait 3339 2784 -17% 1972 Iran 6060 4325 -29% 1974 Indonesia 1685 1004 -41% 1977 Iraq 3489 2423 -31% 1979 United Kingdom 2909 1544 -47% 1999 Norway 3418 2455 -28% 2001 Mexico 3824 3157 -17% 2004 Russian Federation 11484 9886 -14% Saudi Arabia 11114 10846 -2% Nigeria 2580 2170 -16% Canada 3320 3238 -2% 2007 / Growing Algeria 2016 1993 -1% 2007 / Growing China 3795 3795 - Growing United Arab Emirates 2980 2980 - Growing Brazil 1899 1899 - Growing Angola 1875 1875 - Growing Kazakhstan 1554 1554 - Growing Qatar 1378 1378 - Growing 1987* 2005 / Growing 2005* Non-Conventional Oil http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/09/09/OilSandsWorld/ Tar Sands produce 82% more greenhouse gases than conventional oil According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the tar sands annually consumes 20 percent of Canada's natural gas demand. http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/08/30/MattSimmons/index.html Driving Mileage http://www.project.org/info.php?recordID=443 Natural Gas http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618 Coal Appalachia Coal – Peak in 1940 http://steveaustinlex.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/you%E2%80%99ve-met-peak-oil-welcome-peak-coal/ World Peak Coal Study Concludes “Peak Coal” Will Occur Close to 2011 2 August 2010 A multi-Hubbert analysis of coal production by Tadeusz Patzek at The University of Texas at Austin and Gregory Croft at the University of California, Berkeley concludes that the global peak of coal production from existing coalfields will occur close to the year 2011. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, according to the study, which was published in the journal Energy. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/08/peakcoal-20100802.html Electric Energy Production Distribution of Sources http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/pdf_graphs/USELEC.pdf EROEI http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786 Can we Solve the Energy Problem with Renewable Energy? • In 1965, humanity produced 5 TeraWatts (1012 Watts) of power. • In 2005, we produced 15 TeraWatts. All Energy information provided by Saul Griffith in a podcast from the Long Now Foundation. Saul Griffith is an inventor and a 2007 MacArthur Fellow http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/SALT.xml Friday, January 16, 2009, 4:00:00 PM | [email protected] (The Long Now Foundation) Climate Change Recalculated podcast-2009-01-16-griffith.mp3 http://fora.tv/2009/01/16/Saul_Griffith_Climate_Change_Recalculated A Potential Energy Portfolio • Currently Available • 3 TW from Fossil Fuels (to limit greenhouse gases) • 1 TW from Nuclear • 0.5 TW from Hydro • Need 11.5 more TW A Potential Energy Portfolio • Build over the next 25 years • 2 TW photovoltaic • 2 TW Solar Thermal • 2 TW Wind • 2 TW Geothermal • 3 TW Nuclear • 0.5 Biofuels (so we can fly jets) What is Needed to Achieve This? • Produce 100 square meters of photovoltaic cells every second for 25 years • Install 50 square meters of mirrors for solar thermal every second for 25 years • Build one 3-megawatt wind turbine (100 meter diameter) every 5 minutes for next 25 years What is Needed to Achieve This? • Build a 3 gigawatt nuclear plant every week for the next 25 years (US has 8-10 planned for next decade). • Bring a 300 MW steam turbine on line (for geothermal) every day for the next 25 years. • For biofuels, fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool with genetically engineered algae every second for the next 25 years. This would be approximately like covering Wyoming with the algae. An Effort Equivalent to Retooling for WWII • GM and Ford combined could make 1 wind turbine every 5 minutes • Nokia, Intel, AMD, Apple could produce the necessary photovoltaic cells • Coke and Pepsi in 10 years could make enough solar thermal mirrors using the aluminum that would be used for cans to produce 2 TW of power. • Necessary land area for all of this would be the 7th largest country in the world (between Australia and India). Nuclear Fusion • Combining nuclei of smaller atoms to make larger atoms, thereby releasing energy • This is what happens with stars • No radioactive or carbon waste • Potentially 20 or more years from being viable Nuclear Fusion The NIF & Photon Science Principal Directorate is one of five directorates at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, California. The directorate operates the National Ignition Facility (NIF), the world´s largest and highest–energy laser, which has the goal of achieving nuclear fusion and energy gain in the laboratory for the first time – in essence, creating a miniature star on Earth. A technician inspects a final optics assembly on the NIF target chamber. Water Resources http://webworld.unesco.org/water/ihp/db/shiklomanov/part'3/HTML/Fi_21.html 2010 1950 Thousand Cubic Meters per year per capita Fig. 28. Water availability by natural-economic regions of the world: 1950 - 2025. Climate Change http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/graphs-diagrams-of-global-warming-and-climate.html Ocean Acidification Figure 1: Changes in Sea-Surface pH from Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (pre-industrial to 1990s) Note: Lower pH indicates greater acidity (see Box 1: Understanding the pH Scale) Source: Pacific Science Association, 2007 http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245 Plastic Pollution September 4, 2009--Tangled with plastic, rope, and various aquatic animals, a "ghost net" drifts in August 2009 in the Eastern Pacific Garbage Patch, a loose, free-floating "dump" twice the size of Texas. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/photogalleries/pacific-garbage-patch-pictures/index.html Marine Fisheries Choosing A Goal For Humanity • Will humanity exist in 1 million years? • If so, how will we be different? • If not, is there anything we can change so we will survive? • For a universe that is billions of years old, billions of light years in diameter and that contains billions of galaxies with billions of planets and potentially billions of species, does it really matter if humans become extinct? We are the Keystone Generation Sample Production Curv e f or any Non-renewable Resource 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 We are the Keystone Generation Sample Production Curv e f or any Non-renewable Resource On a 4000 y ear time line 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Choosing a Goal for Humanity • Without goals, people tend to roam aimlessly or make short sighted decisions • Group goals benefit from input from all group members • The Keystone Generation should begin a global grassroots discussion of what we think our descendants would appreciate in the future. How to Achieve the Goal • Education • Solution to energy problem • Creation of a model of living that could be used by all humans for 1 million years • Sustainable world view • Sustainable technology • Development of new language Education • Every college graduate should have an understanding of these issues, presented through various disciplines. • Education should include knowledge from pre-industrial cultures such as finding food and understanding the sky. • Systems Thinking Systems Thinking • “A system is an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves something.” Donella Meadows, Thinking in Systems, A primer • Examples of systems • Colleges • Organisms • Biosphere Systems Thinking • All choices a person makes should be viewed in context of the impact on • The individual • Family/friends • Strangers • Non-human life • Resources Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell Phone? • • • • • Impact on me as an individual: I will be able to talk with my family and friends in a more convenient way I will have an additional monthly expense. This requires more money, perhaps more hours of working. I may become addicted to texting and constantly interrupt conversations with the person I am with to text with someone I’m not with. I may have health problems (cancer, brain tumor) from the microwave radiation that cell phones produce. Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell Phone? • Impact on family and friends • It may be easier to stay in touch without seeing each other. • We may get less exercise because we call instead of walk to visit each other. • Communication usually includes facial expressions, which is missing when we use a phone or text. Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell Phone? • • • • • • Impact on all strangers I may be contributing to corporate wealth and employment for people. My choice of cell phones can help make one company survive and another fail. I can report emergencies quicker, thereby helping people. Manufacturing and transportation contributes to climate change. I may cause an accident and hurt someone because of using a cell phone while driving (in spite of current law). Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell Phone? • • • • • Impact on non-human life We replace trees or vegetation with cell phone towers so I have better service. All the radiation from cell towers may have an effect on birds, bees or other animals, but we aren’t sure. Toxic chemicals from cell phones may poison the land, water and other life. Mining operations destroy ecosystems. Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell Phone? • Impact on resources • Cell phones are designed to last a year or two. Over 400,000 are retired every day in the US. They use petroleum and metals, both of which are not renewable. Small as each individual impact is, if resources are to last 1 million years, the small impacts add up. Educating Students in the Classroom • Steilacoom Valley – A way to make big numbers more manageable • Apply the concepts to the real world • Include issues as part of exam or essay questions Solve Energy Problem • Knowledge about energy needs to be increased. • We need a Manhattan type project for creating fusion and expanding other renewable energy production. Create a Model For Living That Could Last 1 Million Years • • • • • • • Adopt a sustainable world view Embrace a way of living in the short term that can extend our non-renewable resources Cultural shift toward small/childless families worldwide with the goal of reducing the world population Adopt sustainable technology Smaller homes Less stuff 100% of energy from renewable sources Create a Model For Living That Could Last 1 Million years • • • • • • • What would living with a sustainable world view be like? How much stuff would we need? What would we do for work if we weren’t simply a consumer society? What would we do with our time? How much government would we really need? How many problems would simply disappear if there was greater income equity? How much less stress could there be? Develop New Language • How does the language and things people discuss differ in places that live sustainably compared to those that don’t? • Are we missing words in our language that would change the way we live? (Do words guide actions or do actions lead to words?) Develop New Language • Example 1. a word or expression that indicates when a person has attained a sufficient state in life rather than being in either a deficient or surplus state, with the latter arising from the desire to always have more • Example 2. a word that merges individual and community The Ultimate Question • Is our current way of living so sacred that we will not voluntarily exchange it for a lower impact lifestyle? The Ultimate Challenges • Can we find a combination of culture and technology that will lead to a more just and sustainable world? • Can we extend our non-renewable energy resources until they can be replaced with nuclear fusion and other clean and renewable energy technology? • Can we decrease the population? Summary • Our development as a species in the last 200 years has been fueled by an unprecedented transfer of matter from resource to sink, thereby denying our descendants these resources. • I believe we have an obligation to make use of the knowledge we have gained because of this transfer to transition to a sustainable way of living, whatever form that takes. Summary • • • • • • • There is a need for a global, grassroots discussion that can address these questions in a thoughtful way: What things in our modern world can we live without? What things would we want all our descendants to be able to have? How can we transition from a consumer society to a different type of society? How can we reduce the size of the world population in a sane and just way? How do our answers change if we have only 10 years to make the changes voluntarily? How can we cope with the changes that will come if we ignore the problems? Summary • • • Finally, I believe this discussion needs to start immediately at the college level, and then spread into K-12. Educators must challenge students to understand the magnitude of the situation and envision other ways of living. This could be lead by, but not limited to, instructors of anthropology and philosophy. The Keystone Generation must become aware of the critical role they play in all of human history. Acknowledgements • I would like to thank Jo Anne Geron for asking me to give this lecture. It gave me the opportunity to organize my thoughts in a meaningful way so that I could envision a strategy for improving life on this planet.