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Department of Economic Opportunity Bureau of Labor Market Statistics All College Day, St. Petersburg College Clearwater, Florida October 22, 2014 Labor Market Information Mission To Produce, Analyze, and Deliver Labor Statistics to Improve Economic DecisionMaking Employment data are the state’s most important economic indicator 1 LMI Statistics Produced/ Delivered Labor Force Total Employment Employment by Industry and Occupation Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation (Demand) Unemployment / Unemployment Rates Wage by Industry and Occupation Census 2 LMI Facts Data collected under Federal / State Cooperative Statistical Programs Data comparable nationwide for all counties and metro areas in the nation Data meet stringent probability sampling design statistical methods with required response rates of 75 percent Monthly data released 3 weeks after the reference month 3 How is LMI Collected? Sample-Designed Statistical Surveys from employers Econometric Modeling developed by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Administrative Records from Reemployment Assistance Thanks to employers …. Without them we would not be able to provide data 4 Who are the customers of Labor Market Statistics? Workforce / Economic Development Decision-Makers Employers / Job Seekers Education / Welfare Planners Career Counselors / Teachers Economists / Policy Makers Elected Officials Media 5 Labor Market Statistics Center Programs There are three main activities: data production, data analysis, data delivery Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)--Produces employment and wages by industry based on all employers covered by Unemployment Insurance Current Employment Statistics (CES)--Produces employment, hours, and earnings by industry based on a sample of employers Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)--Produces employment and wages by occupation based on a sample of employers Employment Projections--Produces projections of employment by industry and occupation based on a survey of employers and statistical models Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)--Produces labor force, employment, unemployment, and unemployment rates based on a survey of households and a statistical model Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)--Produces mass layoff statistics by industry based on Unemployment Insurance claims and employer contacts Workforce Information--Provides statistical services such as publications, websites, training, GIS mapping, economic impact analysis, and customized reports by request 6 Labor Force Conditions September 2014, Seasonally Adjusted • The current unemployment rate of 6.1 percent was down from the recessionary high rate of 11.4 percent reported in 2009-10 • Florida’s unemployment rate has been lower than or equal to the Nation’s for 14 of the past 17 months • Florida’s September 2014 annual rate of job growth was +2.7 percent, 0.8 percentage point greater than the national job growth rate. Florida’s annual job growth rate has exceeded the nation’s since April 2012. Area Florida United States Labor Force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate Year Ago Unemployment Rate 9,637,000 9,048,000 590,000 6.1 6.9 155,862,000 146,600,000 9,262,000 5.9 7.2 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released October 17, 2014. 7 Florida Unemployment Rates by County September 2014, Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released October 17, 2014. 8 Unemployment Rates in the Ten Most Populous States Ranked by Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted State North Carolina Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan Florida Georgia California Illinois Texas New York Unemployment Rate April 2014 (%) April 2013 (%) 6.2 5.7 5.7 7.4 6.2 7.0 7.8 7.9 5.2 6.7 8.4 7.6 7.3 8.8 7.6 8.3 9.1 9.2 6.4 7.8 Change Over the Year -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released May 16, 2014. 9 Nonagricultural Employment September 2014, Seasonally Adjusted • Florida’s jobs grew in September on an annual basis for 50 consecutive months. Prior to August 2010, the state had been losing jobs for over three years and reached a low point of -7.0 percent in March and April 2009. • September 2014 was the 26th consecutive month that the annual employment growth rate was 2.0 or higher • Florida’s job growth rate has equaled or exceeded the national rate since April 2012 Seasonally Adjusted Florida United States September 2014 September 2013 Change Percent Change 7,827,200 7,621,600 205,600 2.7% 139,435,000 136,800,000 2,635,000 1.9% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released October 17, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 10 Florida Total Nonagricultural Employment January 1974 – April 2014, Seasonally Adjusted 8,500,000 8,000,000 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 2,500,000 Recession Total Nonagricultural Employment, SA Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released May 16, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 11 Labor Market Information Online Websites and Web Applications 2 Labor Market Information Online Tools Websites: Labor Market Statistics (LMS) Census Bureau Occupational Information Network (O*NET) Employ Florida Marketplace Web Applications: Florida Research and Economic Information Data Base App (FREIDA) Florida Occupational Employment and Wages (Florida Wages) What People Are Asking (WPAA) Local Employment Dynamics/Quarterly Work Indicators (LED/QWI) Florida’s Career Information Delivery System (CHOICES) Transferable Occupation Relation Quotient (TORQ) Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Data Series 13 Labor Market Statistics (LMS) Website • Allows users to view or download Florida’s labor market data and products online in complete report formats. • LMS Home Page: http://www.floridajobs.org/labor-marketinformation 14 Labor Market Statistics (LMS) Website • • • • • • Latest Statistics Statistical Programs Florida Census Data Center GIS Mapping Reports STEM Jobs in Demand Publications 15 Florida Research and Economic Information Database App (FREIDA) • Provides comprehensive economic and labor market information based on easy to use customer-defined data queries. • FREIDA Home Page: http://freida.labormarketinfo.com/ 16 Florida Research and Economic Information Database (FREIDA) cont’d • Internet-based labor market and economic data base for analysts, businesses, and jobseekers • Designed to • View current and historical data • Ability to • Create, view, export, and print your own tables and profiles by area, industry, or occupation • Customize your own regions, graphs, maps 17 Florida Occupational Employment and Wages (Florida Wages) • Provides detailed occupational employment and wage information based on user-defined queries which can than be compared to similar information for other areas, industries or related occupations. • Florida Wages Home Page: http://www.floridawages.com/ 18 What People Are Asking (WPAA) • Provides employers and jobseekers a look at industry and occupational forecasts, current pay levels, occupational profiles, and workforce availability for Florida and the workforce regions based on a defined set of frequently asked questions. • WPAA Web Page: http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com/index.shtm 19 What People Are Asking (WPAA) Internet based FAQs – http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com Job Seekers • • • • • • • • • • What are the hot jobs? What do hot jobs pay? What kind of skills, knowledge, and experience do I need for the hot jobs? Who trains for the hot jobs? What companies employ the hot jobs? What kind of skills, knowledge, and experience do I need for jobs? What jobs use my skills? Where can I find a job? What jobs are available now? Where can I find training assistance? Businesses / Employers • • • • • • • • What is the size of the labor force in my area? What types of industries are in my area? What types of companies are expected to grow in my area? What are the hot jobs in my area? What do jobs pay in my area? What kind of skills, knowledge, and experience do jobs require? How many job seekers are available by occupation? Where do I go to hire available workers? 20 21 22 23 Occupational Information Network (O*NET) • Provides comprehensive information on key attributes and characteristics of workers and occupations. • O*NET Home Page: http://www.onetcenter.org/ 24 25 Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) • Help Wanted OnLine from The Conference Board is a measure of real-time labor demand captured through online job ads. TM • HWOL Home Page: http://www.wantedanalytics.com/hdd 26 Real-Time LMI Help Wanted OnLine ™ (HWOL) • States are to train workers for jobs in demand, according to the Workforce Investment Act • What are states to do in the depths of a recession when traditional LMI shows little or no jobs in demand? – Traditional LMI is based on net job gains and losses by month – In Florida, during the recession all industries were in decline except healthcare – Could all of Florida’s one million unemployed work in healthcare? 27 Real-Time LMI Help Wanted OnLine ™ (HWOL) • States need to catch the churning in the job market • Industries with a net decline in employment still have hiring needs • The answer: Real-Time LMI – Conference Board; Help-Wanted OnLine (HWOL) • Real-Time LMI is unduplicated job openings (ads) by occupation obtained by spidering technology 28 Real-Time LMI Help Wanted OnLine ™ (HWOL) • Source of job ads is The Conference Board • The Conference Board was established in 1916 and has been one of the leading private sector international economic forecasting firms with offices in New York City, Europe, and China • The Conference Board publishes economic data series including the Consumer Confidence Index and Leading Economic Indicators • The Conference Board has been publishing data on labor demand since the 1950s 29 Benefits of Real-Time LMI • Currency (continuously updated) • Geographically comprehensive • Nation, State, MSA, County, City • Actual posted openings—not an estimate • Has proven to be a leading indicator • May include new and emerging occupations • Useful for keyword searches • Industry specific searches • STEM • Supplement to traditional LMI—not a replacement 30 Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLine Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 31 Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLine Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 32 Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLine Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 33 Help-Wanted OnLine Occupations In Demand Top Advertised Occupations for Pinellas County Pinellas County Total Ads Registered Nurses Customer Service Representatives Retail Salespersons Medical and Health Services Managers First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Computer User Support Specialists Computer Systems Analysts Insurance Sales Agents Medical Secretaries Accountants Web Developers Medical Assistants Nursing Assistants Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg, Except Technical & Scientific Products Marketing Managers Software Developers, Applications Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants Online Ads Online Ads September 2014 September 2013 12,741 12,057 1,003 452 330 259 255 255 210 188 184 179 179 177 176 171 169 157 141 140 137 130 795 419 409 192 269 212 175 136 168 135 141 131 100 75 164 141 128 124 91 152 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 34 Help-Wanted OnLine STEM Occupations In Demand Top Advertised STEM Occupations for Pinellas County Pinellas County Total STEM Ads Registered Nurses Accountants Computer User Support Specialists Computer Systems Analysts Critical Care Nurses Software Developers, Applications Network and Computer Systems Administrators Surgical Technologists Industrial Engineers Information Technology Project Managers Financial Managers, Branch or Department Informatics Nurse Specialists Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists Software Quality Assurance Engineers and Testers Auditors Pharmacists Computer Programmers Computer Systems Engineers/Architects Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians Computer and Information Systems Managers Online Ads Online Ads September 2014 September 2013 3,758 2,711 1,253 236 195 184 146 137 115 93 83 79 73 69 65 53 46 44 43 42 38 36 800 157 169 117 59 88 109 40 66 76 76 19 33 66 29 31 57 42 19 38 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 35 Help-Wanted OnLine Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree In Demand Top Advertised Bachelor's Degree Occupations for Pinellas Pinellas County Total Bachelor Degree Ads Registered Nurses Medical and Health Services Managers Computer Systems Analysts Accountants Web Developers Marketing Managers Software Developers, Applications Sales Agents, Financial Services Network and Computer Systems Administrators Industrial Engineers Information Technology Project Managers Human Resources Specialists Software Quality Assurance Engineers and Testers Informatics Nurse Specialists Management Analysts Financial Managers, Branch or Department Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists Computer Systems Engineers/Architects Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists Public Relations Specialists Online Ads Online Ads September 2014 September 2013 7,875 6,329 1,003 259 188 179 177 140 137 118 108 79 72 68 67 62 61 60 56 55 55 52 795 192 136 141 131 124 91 134 128 76 56 90 63 17 80 79 55 28 30 53 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 36 Help-Wanted OnLine Cities With the Most Online Ads Pinellas County St. Petersburg Clearwater Largo Pinellas Park Palm Harbor Oldsmar Seminole Dunedin Tarpon Springs Safety Harbor Bay Pines St. Pete Beach Madeira Beach Treasure Island Gulfport 13,832 5,221 3,916 1,833 680 475 371 297 238 231 219 75 56 41 36 34 11,503 4,446 3,115 1,370 612 499 336 246 195 219 124 77 58 15 18 27 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 37 Help-Wanted OnLine Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine. Prepared by: The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 38 Long-Term and Short-Term Demand Indicators Occupational Supply/Demand System • The purpose of the Supply/Demand system is to improve education and training alignment to better meet the hiring needs of business • The Supply/Demand system has been designed for education, workforce, economic development, business, job seekers, and students • The web-based data are statewide and by region 39 Occupational Supply/Demand System Data Definitions • The indicators of Potential Labor Supply by occupation are: – – • • Public and private postsecondary education (enrollees, completers, and graduates by occupation based on CIP-SOC) Job seekers registered at career centers The indicators for Labor Demand are: – – Employment projections by occupation (for long-term analysis) Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) job ads by occupation (for short-term analysis) Other Information: – Current employment, wages, and education required by occupation 40 Data Sources of Potential Labor Supply by Occupation are: FLORIDA COLLEGE SYSTEM COMMISSION FOR INDEPENDENT EDUCATION STATE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM (FCS) (SUS) (CIE) DISTRICT POSTSECONDARY CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION (DPSEC) INDEPENDENT COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES OF FLORIDA WORKFORCE INVESTMENT ACT PARTICIPANTS (WIA) REGISTERED JOB SEEKERS IN WORKFORCE INFORMATION SYSTEM (ICUF) (JS) 41 Occupational Supply/Demand System Update Cycles Supply Demand • • • • • • Short-term (HWOL)— Monthly • Long-term (Occupational Projections)—Annual SUS and FCS—By term DPSEC—By term CIE—Annual Job Seekers—Daily ICUF—Annual from IPEDS (2 year old data) 42 Occupational Supply/Demand System Data Caveats • All supply data is potential supply • Completers/graduates are counted in each occupation related to their program of study • Enrollees may or may not complete training • Completers may already have a job or may have moved out of the geographic area • Most jobseekers do not register with the career centers and for those registered they may or may not be qualified for the job they are seeking 43 Data Caveats (continued) • Time frames for supply and demand data elements may differ • District and Florida College System enrollees and completers are based on supply in the workforce region and are not statewide based • University graduates are statewide only and cannot be parsed to workforce regions; the statewide report does include university graduates in supply 44 Occupational Supply/Demand System Data Uses • Education and workforce will use the data to create better alignment of education and training offerings in meeting the hiring demands of business • Economic developers will have the most comprehensive and timely occupational data to determine available labor supply to support business recruitment • Students will benefit from having real time information on jobs in demand now and in the future; jobseekers can use the information for re-employment purposes 45 Explanation of Supply/Demand Report Information… Regional Report Area Occupation 12 Registered Nurses SOC 291141 WIA-E 17 DPSECE FCS-E 2,984 CIE-E 942 WIA-C 10 DPSE C-C FCS-C 540 CIE-C 119 ICUF -C 972 SUS-C 2,111 JS 276 Total Supply 935 • Enrollees on the Supply/Demand report are signified with an –E suffix following the Supply acronym while Completers/Graduates are indicated by a -C suffix. • Notice that items in BLUE are used in creating the Total Supply (also in BLUE). • REGIONAL Reports DO NOT include ICUF and SUS data in total supply as university graduates are considered statewide supply and are not parsed to a regional level. They are provided as informational supply only. • STATEWIDE Reports DO include University graduates. When reviewing occupations for potential new training programs or programs to reduce, one should always review both the Regional and Statewide Reports. Statewide Report Area Occupation STW Registered Nurses SOC 291141 DPSECDPSE WIA-E E FCS-E CIE-E WIA-C C-C FCS-C 2,074 27,803 11,969 882 5,345 CIE-C 2,258 ICUF -C 972 SUS-C 2,111 JS 5,417 Total Supply 16,103 46 Explanation of Supply/Demand Report Information (Continued) … Area Occupation 12 Registered Nurses Total SOC Supply 291141 935 Ratio of Supply Short Term Supply to Gap or Demand Demand Overage 1,499 0.62 -564 CURR FL YR ENTRY MEDIAN EXP ON EDUC EMP WAGE WAGE WAGE TOL LEV 18,195 $22.31 $27.33 $31.19 Yes 4 Total Supply is contrasted against Short-Term Demand Total Supply of 935 vs. Short-Term Demand of 1,499 leaves a “Gap” of -564 trained individuals …and a ratio of .62 persons for each job ad existing Other Information: Current employment, wages, and education required by occupation Fl. Education Levels 1=<HS 2=HS 3=Postsecondary Adult Vocational (PSAV) 4=College Credit 5= Bachelor’s 6= Master’s or higher 47 Short-Term Demand This data series is based on employer generated job ads advertised on the internet. The source is The Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine data series which scrapes over 1,200 job boards. The data are available monthly and have been processed to reduce duplicate job ads. Long-Term Demand This data series is based on average annual openings based on long-term projections produced by the Occupations Projections program in DEO’s Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. These data are based on projected occupational growth and separations (includes projections of retirements and those changing occupations, not simply changing jobs). How do they Differ? Short-term demand is based upon ads resulting from occupational growth, separations, and job churning. Job churning is the movement of workers from one job to another, usually due to seeking a better job opportunity. As a result, short-term demand can exceed long-term demand. 48 TOP 15 BACHELOR LEVEL OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND USING ANNUAL LONG-TERM DEMAND DATA **Requires 1 to 5 years of experience; ***Requires more than 5 years of experience Offered at the Bachelor degree level Note: All data are statewide based, FCS, CIE and SUS data are based on 2012-2013 school year graduates, ICUF data are based on 2011-12 graduates. BLS education levels used for all occupations. 49 TOP 15 BACHELOR LEVEL OCCUPATIONS IN UNDERSUPPLY USING SHORT-TERM DEMAND DATA (JUNE 2014) Occupation Registered Nurses Computer Occupations, All Other Short Supply Ratio of Total Term Gap or Supply to CURR OUT YR ENTRY MEDIAN FCS-C CIE-C ICUF-C SUS-C Supply Demand Overage Demand YR EMP EMP WAGE WAGE EXP WAGE 2,038 $29.44 $33.55 3,051 25 1,380 506 6,975 15,487 -8,512 0.45 169,380 202,635 $23.76 326 251 602 3,105 -2,503 0.19 5,167 5,656 $21.90 $36.22 $42.28 Financial Managers*** 133 53 46 232 2,118 -1,886 0.11 18,448 20,113 $35.52 $55.22 $73.72 Accountants and Auditors 362 909 840 2,111 3,932 -1,821 0.54 84,311 96,461 $20.01 $29.05 $38.41 Computer Systems Analysts 252 56 370 691 1,369 2,934 -1,565 0.47 22,564 26,293 $28.69 $41.08 $50.09 Software Developers, Applications 133 813 195 313 1,454 2,455 -1,001 0.59 23,036 27,707 $24.56 $38.28 $46.25 29 23 52 1,032 -980 0.05 10,209 11,018 $20.92 $33.06 $40.66 80 108 480 1,262 -782 0.38 19,000 20,828 $21.68 $34.45 $43.71 61 200 261 788 -527 0.33 14,237 16,793 $27.12 $38.52 $47.39 7 530 -523 0.01 9,462 10,073 $21.73 $27.35 $30.20 278 571 -293 0.49 7,507 8,346 $28.33 $40.36 $48.77 266 -266 N/A 2,046 2,260 $34.69 $48.74 $66.78 Industrial Engineers Computer Programmers 211 81 Civil Engineers Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 7 Electrical Engineers 71 207 Sales Engineers Cost Estimators 4 Information Security Analysts 76 Mechanical Engineers 10 5 104 113 343 -230 0.33 11,197 14,830 $17.66 $26.01 $33.60 144 201 431 573 -142 0.75 3,833 4,603 $23.72 $36.35 $45.07 97 308 405 544 -139 0.74 6,828 7,526 $23.54 $36.92 $46.48 ***Requires more than 5 years of experience Offered at the Bachelor degree level Note: All data are statewide based, FCS, CIE and SUS data are based on 2012-2013 school year graduates, ICUF data are based on 2011-12 graduates. BLS education levels used for all occupations. 50 www.floridajobs.org/lms/jid 51 Education and Training pay … 2013 Annual Average Unemployment Rate Median Earnings (Percent) (Dollars) 3.4 4.0 5.4 7.0 7.5 11.0 2.2 Doctoral degree 2.3 Professional degree $84,396 $89,128 $69,108 Master’s degree $57,616 Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High-school graduate Some high-school, no diploma $40,404 $37,804 $33,852 $24,544 Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers. 2013 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by 52 weeks). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 2014. 52 Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Bureau of Labor Market Statistics Caldwell Building MSC G-020 107 E. Madison Street Tallahassee, Florida 32399-4111 Phone (850) 245-7227 Warren May [email protected] www.floridajobs.org/labor-market-information www.labormarketinfo.com freida.labormarketinfo.com www.floridawages.com http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com/index.shtm 53