Transcript Slide 1

Division of Science Resources
Statistics
Skilled Migrants in a (Human) Networked
World:
Beyond Brain Drain and Neuro-mercantilism
RESEARCH TRENDS SEMINAR:
Research Mobility & Brain Circulation: Scientific and
Economic Impacts
Washington, DC
October 9, 2012
Mark Regets
National Science Foundation: Arlington
(Affiliation for biographical purposes only)
[email protected]
Brain drain:
The idea that a geographic political unit is
harmed when highly educated workers leave.
Neuro-mercantilism:
The idea that a geographic political unit benefits
when highly educated workers move there. (a
pejorative used to link the idea to the economic
theory that doomed empires)
Some important considerations in thinking about
the effects of high-skilled migration:
• Understanding changes in the way both university and
industry R&D is done is key to understanding both the
migrations and their effects.
• While it is useful to analyze national economic effects,
ethical issues can arise from a too narrow accounting of
benefits and costs. Much of the gain to migration accrues
to the migrant (in terms of both economics and human
liberty).
•Many of the effects are global, and not specific to the
receiving and sending country.
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Changes in how S&T is done:
1. Global capacity for science and
technology growing rapidly in most
part of the world.
a) Research much less centralized,
U.S. now about 1/3 of world R&D
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Number of Postsecondary (Tertiary) degree holders: 1950-2010
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
Rest of World
250,000,000
USA
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release
2005
2010
Postsecondary
education has
increased in all
regions, leaving no
area with a share of
educated workers
comparable to the
42% for the U.S. in
1950
2010 Tertiary Degree Holders:
>350 million
Middle East
and North
Africa
5%
Latin America
and
Caribbean
8%
Eastern
Europe/Centr
al Asia
13%
South Asia
10%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1%
United States
18%
East
Asia/Pacific
23%
Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release
Other
Advanced
Economies
22%
The proportion of population earning degrees has increased
almost everywhere, including other developed countries.
(First University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)
Taiwan
Finland
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
Norway
Sweden
United Kingdom
Ireland
Japan
South Korea
France
Portugal
United States
Spain
Switzerland
Greece
Germany
Austria
Belgium
Singapore
China
1975
1990
2005
0
10
20
30
40
Ratio of first university degrees granted to 1/5 of population aged 20-24
50
60
Science and engineering degrees have also increased:
(First Natural S&E University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)
Taiwan
Finland
South Korea
Sweden
Italy
Singapore
United Kingdom
Portugal
France
Denmark
Spain
Japan
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
Norway
Greece
Switzerland
Austria
United States
Belgium
China
1975
1990
2005
0
5
10
15
20
Ratio of S&E first university diplomas granted to 1/5 population aged 20-24
25
US Share of Top 1% of Cited Articles in Science
Citation Index: 1998, 2008
1998
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008
U.S. Share of WIPO Patent: 1992, 2007
70
1992
60
2007
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
All Patents
Biotechnology
Information and
Computer Technology
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Changes in how S&T is done:
2. More S&T activity of all types is done
across borders
a. Teams and collaborations physically
located in multiple countries
b. Large increases in the migration of
researchers and other highly skilled
workers
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Thousands
R&D Employment by U.S. Multinational Corporations
Abroad and by Foreign MNC Affiliates in the United States
300
250
200
U.S. MNCs abroad
Foreign MNCs in United States
150
100
50
0
1994
Source: Science and Engineering Indicators 2012
1999
2004
2009
ENGLISH AS A COMMON LANGUAGE
• In several countries, the government funding
agencies will not accept research proposals in
the country’s native language.
• Many graduate programs are taught in English so
that:
– Its graduates are not isolated.
– It can recruit students with other native languages.
• English is the work language both at many
government funded research institutes and at
commercial R&D sites.
Country of enrollment for foreign students in
tertiary education: 2001 and 2008
SOURCE: IIE Atlas of Student Mobility
10 year growth rate in number of foreign students in higher education:
1998-2007
Korea
1159%
New Zealand
999%
Czech Republic
501%
Iceland
304%
Canada
302%
Japan
253%
Sweden
240%
Netherlands
176%
Norway
170%
Italy
147%
Ireland
143%
Poland
139%
Finland
132%
Hungary
128%
Australia
123%
United Kingdom
120%
Spain
106%
Denmark
89%
Switzerland
69%
France
67%
Portugal
61%
Austria
53%
Germany
51%
United States
Slovak Republic
Turkey
38%
26%
3%
Entries into Japan of workers with a type of
temporary work visa associated with high skills
250,000
200,000
150,000
Skilled laborers
Intracompany transferees
Engineers
Instructors
Researchers
Professors
100,000
50,000
-
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009
Source: Japan Statistical Handbook
Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and
engineering occupation in the U.S.: 1990-2004
45.0
40.0
35.0
1990 Census
2000 Census
2004 Census ACS
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
All college
educated
Bachelor’s
Master’s
Doctorate
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U.S. Resident Foreign-Born Individuals With
Degrees From Third Countries: 1993
(Other than U.S. or Country of Birth)
Percent of ForeignBorn with Same
Number in U.S. Education Level
All Degree Levels
Bachelor's Degree
Master's Degree
Professional Degrees
Doctorate
311,700
135,100
96,200
34,900
45,600
8.7
5.8
11.7
15.0
22.2
Source: NSF/Science Resources Statistics 1993 SESTAT
data and 1993 National Survey of College Graduates
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Multiple Node Knowledge Network
• Increased and more complex flows of students,
workers, and finances
• Increased regional S&T collaboration and links
between regions
• Global and regional labor markets for some skills
• Increased importance of individuals with high
“betweenness”—those connecting the nodes
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Two hypothetical cross-national knowledge networks NOT
based on actual countries or data:
(Size of circle related to size of R&D. Width of lines related to size of knowledge flows)
Central Node:
Dominant Country
Dominant Country:
• Country doing most R&D is connected to
most information flows.
• Some regional activity, but greater
collaboration with dominant country.
• Very limited collaboration across regions,
except in collaborations that include
dominant country.
Geographically dispersed R&D capabilities:
• Country with the most R&D may still be
the one best connected to other R&D, but
there is much activity to which it has no
connection.
•Growth of knowledge flows and
collaborations within and between regions.
Sending Countries: Possible
Negatives
• “Brain drain”: lost productive capacity
due to at least temporary absence of
workers and students with higher skills
• Less support for public funding of
higher education
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Percent of foreign-born S&E degree holders with highest
degree from foreign institution: 2003
100.0
Percent with high degree from foreign school
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
All degrees
Doctorate
Master's
Bachelor's
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Year of entry to the United States
Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003
1980
Rapid increases in foreign-born scientists and engineers has
not prevented rapid growth in numbers of U.S.-born
Employment in S&E occupations by nativity and level of degree
Ph.D.
B.S. or higher
300,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
Foreignborn
U.S.-born
250,000
2,500,000
200,000
2,000,000
150,000
1,500,000
100,000
1,000,000
1990
2000
500,000
50,000
0
0
1980
1990
2000
Source: Lowell/Regets tabulations of 1980-2000 Census PUMS
1990
2000
Receiving Countries:
Possible Negatives
• Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher
skills
• Possibility of displacement of native students
from best schools
• Language and cultural barriers between native
and immigrant highly skilled workers
• Technology transfers to competitors and to
possibly hostile countries
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Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in U.S. native S&E
graduate enrollment associated with changes in graduate
temporary-visa foreign student enrollment
An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a S&E
graduate department is associated with:
+ 0.02 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority
+ 0.33 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white
- 0.07 full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian
Model: Departmental level fixed effects controlling for department size in the previous
period, dummy variables for year, and changes in the enrollment of other groups.
Data: NSF Graduate Student Survey, 1982-1995
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Many U.S. citizen grad students are in departments dependent
upon foreign students
SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2005
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Receiving Countries:
Possible Positives
• Increased R&D and economic activity due to
availability of additional highly skilled workers
and students.
• Knowledge flows and collaboration.
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions.
• Export opportunities for technology.
• Increased enrollment in graduate programs,
possibly keeping smaller programs alive.
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Sending Countries:
Possible Positives
• Increased incentive for natives to seek higher skills
• Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces risk and raises expected
return of personal education investments
• Increase in domestic economic return to skills
• Knowledge flows and collaboration
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions
• Export opportunities for technology
• Return of natives with foreign education and human capital
• Remittances and other support from diaspora networks
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Possibility of migration increases incentive to
invest in human capital even for those who stay
E(H) = Pm Ef(H) + (1 – Pm) Ed(H)
where :
Pm is the subjective individual probability of migration
Ef is the expected value of human capital H in the foreign labor market
Ed is the expected value of the same human capital in the domestic labor market
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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Relationship of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to their
country's scientific collaboration with United States: 1994–98
graduates and 1999–2003 articles
4.000
Foreign-born U.S. doctorate holders 1994–98 (log)
3.000
2.000
1.000
Correlation = +0 .66
0.000
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
-1.000
-2.000
Coauthored articles 1999–2003 (log)
SOURCES: Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, http://www.isinet.com/products/citation/; ipIQ, Inc.; National Science Foundation,
Division of Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned Doctorates (1994–98), special tabulations; and National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006.
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The U.S. does not have many college educated citizens abroad:
Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a tertiary-level education residing abroad in other OECD
countries (2000)
33
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Source: Docquier and Marfouk, International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000), World Bank
Possible Global Effects
• Better international flow of knowledge between centers of
innovation.
• Better job matches through global job searches conducted
by both workers and employers. The best person for a job
sometimes has a rare combination of skill sets
• Increased productivity of research: “Where can I do the best
work?” is at least one question considered by a potential
migrant.
• Net positive effect on incentives for individual human capital
investments as a result of international competition for
scarce human capital.
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