Transcript Document

Division of Science Resources Statistics
The Complex National Effects of HighSkilled Migration
Council for Foreign Relations
New York, NY
February 18, 2007
Mark Regets
National Science Foundation: Arlington
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA): Bonn
(Affiliations for biographical purposes only)
[email protected] 703-292-7813
1
ETHICAL DISCLAIMER:
(No, not the one that says that my employer does not
necessarily share my views, although that is also true.)
While it is very useful for policy makers and social
scientists to study the effects of the movement of highlyskilled migrants:
• Freedom of movement is a human right that would
have positive value even if all economic effects were
negative.
• The greatest benefits of migration accrue to the
individuals choosing to move across borders.
2
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Changes in how S&T is done:
• More S&T activity of all types is done
across borders
– Teams and collaborations physically located in
multiple countries
– Both basic research & product development
• Global capacity for S&T growing rapidly in
most part of the world.
• S&T capacity much less centralized, U.S.
now less than ¼ of world R&D
3
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Sending Countries: Possible
Negatives
• “Brain drain”: lost productive capacity
due to at least temporary absence of
workers and students with higher skills
• Less support for public funding of
higher education
4
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Share of college-educated foreign-born individuals in the
United States who hold foreign degrees: 2003
(Percentages)
Bachelor’s
Master’s
Professional
Doctoral
All degree levels
Highest
Any
degree from
foreign
foreign
university
university
degree
47.9
49.7
26.8
58.6
58.5
49.5
36.3
78.6
41.4
54.8
Source: NSF/SRS 2003 National Survey of College Graduates.
Foreign
secondary
school
65.8
74.2
63.3
93.0
69.2
5
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Sending Countries:
Possible Positives
• Increased incentive for natives to seek higher skills
• Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces risk and raises
expected return of personal education investments
• Increase in domestic economic return to skills
• Knowledge flows and collaboration
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions
• Export opportunities for technology
• Return of natives with foreign education and human capital
• Remittances and other support from diaspora networks
6
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Relationship of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to their
country's scientific collaboration with United States: 1994–98
graduates and 1999–2003 articles
4.000
Foreign-born U.S. doctorate holders 1994–98 (log)
3.000
2.000
1.000
Correlation = +0 .66
0.000
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
-1.000
-2.000
Coauthored articles 1999–2003 (log)
SOURCES: Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, http://www.isinet.com/products/citation/; ipIQ, Inc.; National Science Foundation,
Division of Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned Doctorates (1994–98), special tabulations; and National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators,
2006.
7
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Chinese Student Flows: 1985-2005
Students Leaving
0.9
Students Returning
0.8
120,000
100,000
0.7
Ratio of Returning to Domestic
Postgraduate Degrees Awarded
0.6
80,000
0.5
60,000
0.4
0.3
40,000
0.2
20,000
0.1
05
04
20
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
99
Source: NSF/SRS analysis of data from the China National Bureau of Statistics
20
98
19
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
93
19
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
88
19
87
19
19
19
86
0
85
0
19
Students leaving & returning
Ratio of Returning to Leaving
Ratio
140,000
8
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Receiving Countries:
Possible Negatives
• Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher
skills
• Possibility of displacement of native students from
best schools
• Language and cultural barriers between native and
immigrant highly skilled workers
• Technology transfers to competitors and to
possibly hostile countries
9
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Relationship of share of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to median salary for all S&E
doctorate recipients in same S&E field: 1998–2002 graduates in 2003
Median salary $ thousands)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Correlation = + 0 .67
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Foreign-born U.S. doctorate recipients (%)
60
70
80
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Div ision of Science Resources Statistics, Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data Sy stem (SESTAT) (2003), http://sestat.nsf.gov .
10
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in U.S. native
S&E graduate enrollment associated with changes in
graduate temporary-visa foreign student enrollment
An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a S&E graduate
department is associated with:
+ 0.02 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority
+ 0.33 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white
- 0.07 full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian
Model: Departmental level fixed effects controlling for department size in the previous
period, dummy variables for year, and changes in the enrollment of other groups.
Data: NSF Graduate Student Survey, 1982-1995
11
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
12
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Receiving Countries:
Possible Positives
• Increased R&D and economic activity due to
availability of additional highly skilled workers
and students.
• Knowledge flows and collaboration.
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions.
• Export opportunities for technology.
• Increased enrollment in graduate programs,
possibly keeping smaller programs alive.
13
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and
engineering occupation in the U.S.: 1990-2004
45.0
40.0
35.0
1990 Census
2000 Census
2004 Census ACS
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
All college
educated
Bachelor’s
Master’s
Doctorate
14
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Number of Postdocs at U.S. Universities by
Citizenship Status
15
SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2005
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Multiple Node Knowledge Network
• Increased and more complex flows of
students, workers, and finances
• Increased regional S&T collaboration and
links between regions
• Global and regional labor markets for some
skills
• Increased importance of individuals with high
“betweenness”—those connecting the nodes
16
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Possible Global Effects
•
•
•
•
Better international flow of knowledge.
Better job matches through global job search.
Greater job options for workers and researchers.
Greater ability of employers to find rare or
unique skill sets.
• Formation of international research or
technology clusters—e.G., Silicon valley, CERN).
• Net positive effect on incentives for individual
human capital investments as a result of
international competition for scarce human
17
capital.
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Resources:
NSF Division of Science Resources Statistics:
www.nsf.gov/statistics/
Science and Engineering Indicators 2006:
www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers
www.iza.org
Mark Regets
703-292-7813
[email protected]
18
Supplemental
Slides
19
Foreign-born proportion of S&E degree
holders in the United States: 2003
Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003
20
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Lower bound estimates of foreign-born individuals with U.S.
science and engineering Ph.D.s and initial U.S. employment
working outside the United States in 1995
(Percent)
Decade of Ph.D.
1955–64
1965–74
1975–84
1985–94
Those residing
outside the
United States in 1995
13.7
22.7
22.2
19.4
Those who had
left the United
States between
1993 and 1995
0.8
1.3
2.3
4.1
Note: Data include foreign-born U.S. citizens, permanent residents, and those who
expressed definite plans to stay at time of receipt of their degree.
Source: NSF/SRS 1993, 1995 Survey of Doctorate Recipients.
21
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Is there much of a native-born
U.S. Diaspora?
• 485,000 college educated U.S. Citizens found in
2000/2001 censuses of OECD countries
(Docquier 2004)
• 1.2 million U.S. Individual tax returns filed
abroad (growing at 3.5% annual rate)
• 3 percent of U.S. Native-born Ph.D.s in science
and engineering have initial foreign
employment
22
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Simple model of expected value of human capital when
migration is an option
E(H) = Pm Ef(H) + (1 – Pm) Ed(H)
where
Pm is the subjective individual probability of migration
Ef is the expected value of human capital H in the foreign
labor market
Ed is the expected value of the same human capital in the
domestic labor market
23
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Doctorate-holders in U.S. Science and Engineering
Occupations by Selected Place of Birth
EU-15
OECD (ex. U.S.)
1990
2000
Asia-10
All Foreign-born
U.S.-born
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
24
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Percent of Stay
1998 foreign-born
of U.S.
doctorates
working in the
Five-year
Rate of 1998recipients
Temporary
Visa
Ph.D. Recipients
United States on a temporary visa (stay rate): 1999–2003
(Percent)
Degree field
1999
All fields
66
Agricultural science
48
Computer science
71
Economics
40
Life science
72
Mathematics
67
Physical science
75
Other social science
39
Computer/electrical engineering 78
Other engineering
69
2000
64
47
71
39
68
63
74
38
76
67
2001
63
47
72
37
67
62
72
37
75
67
2002
62
47
72
37
68
60
71
37
74
65
2003
61
46
70
36
67
59
69
37
70
64
25
SOURCE: Michael Finn, Stay Rates of Foreign Doctorate Recipients From U.S. Universities, 2005, Oak Ridge Insitute for Science and Education (2005).
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a tertiary-level education
residing abroad in OECD countries (2000)
26
Source: Docquier and Marfouk, International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000), World Bank
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Lower Bound Estimates of U.S. Citizens and Permanent Resident Ph.D. Graduates residing
outside the U.S.: 1995
Foreign-born with
citizenship at time Permanent resident
Native Born
of Ph.D.
at time of Ph.D.
Percent of
Percent
Percent
Number
Total
Number of Total Number of Total
Abroad Abroad Abroad Abroad Abroad Abroad
All S&E
Life Sciences
Math and Comp. Sci.
Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
Engineering
13,900
3,400
1,000
2,200
5,900
1,500
3.3
2.7
4.2
2.5
4.2
3.0
1,400
200
100
300
300
500
7.4
5.0
4.2
8.7
7.5
9.1
4,300
900
200
800
1,200
1,300
13.6
12.0
10.2
12.6
18.0
13.1
Total citizen or
permanent
resident at time of
Ph.D.
Percent
Number of Total
Abroad Abroad
19,600
4,500
1,200
3,200
7,400
3,300
4.1
3.3
4.6
3.3
4.9
5.0
27