Transcript Slide 1

Pulong Saliksikan
on
“Basic Climatology Concepts and Data”
April 21, 2005
Philippine Institute for Development Studies
NEDA-Makati Bldg., Amorsolo St., Legaspi Vill., Makati City
Weather Situation and Outlook
Hannagrace F. Cristi
Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch
PAGASA
Climate Prediction and Monitoring Center (CLIMPC)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, PAGASA
SERVICES/COMMITMENTS
•
Continuous monitoring of weather and climate of the Philippines
•
Collection and application of various global indicators
•
Preparation and issuance of CLIMPC products
•
Maintenance of historical and present records
• Resource speaker on scientific briefings/interviews
Climate Prediction and Monitoring Center
PRODUCTS
• Monthly Weather Situation & Outlook
• Seasonal Climate Outlook
• Drought / La Niña Advisories
• Press Releases
• Specialized climate forecast tailor-made for
clients specifications
CLIENTS / USERS
• General Public
• Tri-Media (Radio, Television and Print)
• Water, Agriculture, Health and Tourism Sectors
• Civic and Building Design Contractors
Schematic Diagram of CLIMPC
DATA BASES
HISTORICAL NORMALS
EPISODIC EVENTS
INFORMATION FROM
OTHER SOURCES
ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES AND
PROCEDURES
NEAR REAL-TIME
METEOROLOGICAL DATA
CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT
ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
END USERS
1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management
2. National Disaster Coordinating Council
3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and
Feed Grains
4. El Niño / La Niña Task Force
5. Media
6. General Public and other End-Users
CLIMPC PRODUCTS
Weather Situation and Outlook
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
PAGASA Central Office, Science Garden Complex, Agham Road, Quezon City
Weather Situation
•
•
•
•
Condition of the CEEP
Weather Systems
RR distribution
Prevailing average
maximum and minimum
temperature
Weather Outlook
Forecast on the following:
•
•
Weather Systems and no.
of tropical cyclones
Rainfall and temperature
ranges on major areas
Weather Situation in the Philippines
September 2004
The El Niño-like condition over the Central Equatorial Pacific has influenced Philippine
climate, as manifested in the behavior of the weather systems that affect the country.
The persistence of the ridge of the North Pacific high pressure area resulted in the early
termination of the southwest monsoon in the third week of September. The other weather
systems that contributed to weather conditions during the month were the intertropical
convergence zone (ITCZ) and the passage of four (4) tropical cyclones in the Philippine area of
responsibility (PAR), namely: T.Y. ‘Nina’ (Sep 3-4), T.S. ‘Ofel’ (Sep 11-12), T.D. ‘Pablo’ (Sep
15-17), and T.Y. ‘Quinta’ (Sep 23-25). Rainfall for the month was attributed to the ITCZ and
the passage of T.D. “Pablo”. The rest of the tropical cyclones were less rain -producing.
Rainfall analyses showed that most parts of the country experienced below normal
rainfall. Central Visayas, Negros Occidental, Southern Leyte and most parts of Southern and
Central Mindanao received near to above normal rainfall.
Warmer than normal temperatures were observed in most parts of the country. Average
temperature ranges were as follows: lowlands of Luzon and Visayas, from 23?C to 34?C;
lowlands of Mindanao, from 22?C to 33?C; mountainous areas of Cordillera region, from 15.7?C
to 23.1?C; and mountainous areas of Mindanao, from 18.8?C to 30.0?C.
Weather Outlook in the Philippines
October 2004
The developing weak El Niño over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific will
continue to influence the weather in the country during the month.
The weather systems that are likely to affect the country are the ridge of high pressure
area, the ITCZ the tail end of cold front and northeast monsoon. Two or three tropical cyclones
are expected to enter the PAR.
Below normal rainfall conditions are likely to be experienced in most parts of Luzon and
western Mindanao. The rest of the country will likely have near normal rainfall conditions.
Warmer than normal air temperatures are likely to be felt in most parts of the country.
The expected ranges of average temperature are 16?C to 23?C for the mountainous areas of
Luzon, 23?C to 33?C for the rest of Luzon, 23?C to 32?C for Visayas, 19?C to 29?C for the
mountainous areas of Mindanao, and 23?C to 32?C for the rest of Mindanao.
NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO
Deputy Director for Research and Development
Officer- in- Charge
Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch
Issued: October 1, 2004
Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction Center
website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
Monthly Rainfall Analyses
Total Rainfall
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
(Attachment)
September 2004
Rainfall (mm)
% Normal
Cumulative Rainfall During the Passage
of Tropical Cyclone
(Attachment)
Maximum Temperature
Maximum Temperature for August 2002 Compared with Normal
and Historical Climatic Records (in Deg C)
Region
NCR
REGION I
REGION II
REGION III
REGION IV
REGION V
REGION VI
REGION VII
Station Name
Maximum Temperature for August 2002 Compared with Normal
August 2002
Climatic Records
Region
Average Highest Normal Highest Date
NAIA
30.1
32.2
30.7
35.2
29-89
REGION VIII
Port Area
31.2
33.2
30.6
35.6
09-64
Science Garden
31.6
34.0
31.1
35.8
10-62
Baguio City, Benguet
22.4
25.4
16.1
27.7
30-88
Dagupan City, Pangasinan 31.3
36.0
31.3
36.4
10-06
REGION IX
Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
32.2
34.2
31.6
36.7
30-69
Aparri, Cagayan
32.4
34.0
32.5
37.2
01-98
REGION X
Basco, Batanes
31.3
33.2
31.6
37.5
04-75
Tuguegarao, Cagayan
32.4
35.4
33.7
39.4
29-60
REGION XI
Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija
32.4
35.0
31.7
36.0
14-98
Iba, Zambales
30.6
33.5
29.9
35.7
27-69
Alabat, Quezon
31.5
33.5
31.6
37.2
26-69
ARMM
Ambulong, Batangas
30.8
33.4
30.9
36.7
23-69
CARAGA
Tayabas,Quezon
30.5
32.8
30.9
35.6
27-83
Baler, Aurora
31.0
32.5
32.6
37.0
22-94
Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
32.0
34.5
31.6
37.6
01-14
Infanta, Quezon
33.2
36.6
32.4
37.0
27-89
Cuyo,Palawan
31.3
33.2
31.6
34.8
24-83
Puerto Princesa, Palawan
31.1
32.5
31.1
35.2
30-96
San Jose, Occ. Mindoro
29.7
32.0
30.8
35.0
02-98
Daet, Camarines Norte
31.7
34.4
32.2
36.7
06-39
Legaspi City, Albay
31.4
33.5
31.6
36.9
07-39
Virac, Catanduanes
32.2
34.6
31.6
36.7
27-60
Masbate, Masbate
32.5
35.0
32.7
35.8
31-81
Iloilo City, Iloilo
30.3
32.3
31.0
34.8
11-39
Roxas City, Capiz
31.2
31.6
31.6
36.9
01-67
Dumaguete City, Negros Or. 30.2
33.5
31.9
36.7
16-75
Mactan, Cebu
30.4
33.6
31.8
35.6
27-98
Tagbilaran City, Bohol
32.1
34.4
32.7
37.1
31-92
(Attachment)
and Historical Climatic Records (in Deg C)
Station Name
August 2002
Climatic Records
Average Highest Normal Highest Date
Catarman, N. Samar
30.9
34.0
32.8
37.1
14-50
Catbalogan,West Samar
31.6
34.5
32.7
36.0
11-88
Tacloban, N. Leyte
31.7
34.4
31.8
38.0
18-24
Dipolog, Zamboanga del N. 30.8
33.8
32.6
36.8
18-74
Zamboanga, Zambo. del S. 31.8
34.6
32.0
38.7
15-99
Lumbia, Misamis Oriental
31.5
35.4
31.9
37.8
28-90
Malaybalay, Bukidnon
28.5
32.0
28.9
33.0
30-91
Davao City, Daval del Sur
31.4
33.4
31.8
36.0
02-05
General Santos,S. Cotabato 30.8
32.8
31.7
36.1
02-73
Cotabato City, Maguindanao 30.9
32.8
32.3
35.3
15-96
Surigao City, Surigao del N. 31.8
35.0
32.6
37.0
19-16
Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
31.7
33.8
32.9
37.0
28-92
Butuan City, Agusan del N. 32.8
35.5
32.8
36.1
30-92
Minimum Temperature
Minimum Temperature for August 2002 Compared with Normal
Maximum Temperature for August 2002 Compared with Normal
and Historical Climatic Records (in Deg C)
Region
NCR
REGION I
REGION II
REGION III
REGION IV
REGION V
REGION VI
REGION VII
Region
August 2002
Climatic Records
Average Lowest Normal Lowest Date
NAIA
25.3
24.2
24.2
17.4
09-49 REGION VIII
Port Area
25.3
22.0
25.5
18.0
14-74
Science Garden
24.2
22.9
23.9
17.8
23-64
Baguio City, Benguet
16.1
15.0
22.5
12.8
12-36 REGION IX
Dagupan City, Pangasinan 24.3
23.0
24.2
19.0
03-99
Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
24.6
21.0
23.9
20.9
13-36 REGION X
Aparri, Cagayan
25.1
24.0
24.5
20.0
13-95
Basco, Batanes
25.2
23.0
25.2
19.2
28-94 REGION XI
Tuguegarao, Cagayan
25.2
20.0
23.4
19.3
02-05
Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija
24.2
23.5
23.5
19.0
19-97 ARMM
Iba, Zambales
22.7
21.2
22.7
14.0
26-92 CARAGA
Alabat, Quezon
23.2
22.5
23.4
20.0
28-72
Ambulong, Batangas
24.8
23.4
23.9
20.5
11-96
Tayabas,Quezon
23.8
22.5
23.4
19.3
11-71
Baler, Aurora
24.1
23.0
23.7
20.0
05-93
Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
31.1
22.0
23.5
17.6
10-93
Infanta, Quezon
24.9
23.2
24.8
21.7
21-53
Cuyo,Palawan
26.0
25.0
25.2
21.1
15-71
Puerto Princesa, Palawan
24.3
23.1
23.5
20.5
31-87
San Jose, Occ. Mindoro
24.9
23.5
23.9
18.0
29-80
Daet, Camarines Norte
25.0
22.5
24.5
20.0
13-95
Legaspi City, Albay
24.7
23.2
24.3
19.4
08-71
Virac, Catanduanes
24.4
23.2
23.7
19.0
14-87
Masbate, Masbate
25.4
24.0
24.8
20.1
29-81
Iloilo City, Iloilo
24.0
22.5
24.4
20.0
01-75
Roxas City, Capiz
25.3
24.0
24.1
19.0
06-07
Dumaguete City, Negros Or. 24.4
23.0
24.3
20.5
24-81
Mactan, Cebu
24.9
23.4
25.1
20.8
19-81
Tagbilaran City, Bohol
24.5
22.7
24.3
20.6
29-72
Station Name
(Attachment)
and Historical Climatic Records (in Deg C)
Station Name
August 2002
Climatic Records
Average Lowest Normal Lowest Date
Catarman, N. Samar
23.8
22.6
24.0
20.6
30-50
Catbalogan,West Samar
24.9
23.4
24.7
21.1
12-76
Tacloban, N. Leyte
24.8
23.9
24.6
20.6
01-20
Dipolog, Zamboanga del N. 21.2
19.0
23.2
18.5
03-99
Zamboanga, Zambo. del S. 24.9
23.6
23.9
19.0
12-17
Lumbia, Misamis Oriental
22.9
21.4
22.4
19.4
26-95
Malaybalay, Bukidnon
19.6
17.5
18.9
15.3
27-87
Davao City, Daval del Sur
25.0
23.4
23.4
18.5
07-18
General Santos,S. Cotabato 23.6
18.0
22.5
17.5
16-85
Cotabato City, Maguindanao 23.0
21.5
23.0
21.2
14-97
Surigao City, Surigao del N. 24.3
22.3
24.2
20.0
22-93
Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
24.3
23.5
23.3
19.0
04-87
Butuan City, Agusan del N. 25.1
23.5
23.5
19.0
11-90
Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005
Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005
Overview
Since July 2004, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than 0.5oC persisted across most
of the central and western equatorial Pacific and progressed towards an El Niño event in October. It is expected
that the current El Niño conditions will continue up to early 2005 and thereafter, gradually weaken until neutral
conditions are attained in the later part of the second quarter.
January to March
This period is the second half of the northeast monsoon (Amihan) season. The continued presence of positive SST
anomalies greater than 0.5°C in the central and western equatorial Pacific is expected to influence rainfall
conditions in the country. Near normal to below average rainfall conditions are expected during this quarter in
most parts of the country. Weather systems likely to affect the country are the tail end of the cold front, easterly
wave, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and ridge of high pressure area. Luzon and Visayas will
experience slightly warmer temperatures while Mindanao is expected to have near normal temperature. One
tropical cyclone maybe expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) but will have a very slim
chance of crossing the country as tropical cyclone.
Most parts of eastern Luzon, Leyte, the eastern sections of Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental, the western part of
Agusan del Sur and Davao del Norte will receive rainfall ranging from 301-600 mm while the eastern sections of
Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Davao del Norte and Davao Oriental is expected to have rainfall in the range of
601-900 mm. The eastern sections of Mindanao will likely experience rainfall ranging from 901-1200 mm while the
rest of the country will receive less than 300 mm of rainfall.
Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005
April to June
The period signals the start of the southwest monsoon (Habagat) season in the country. Below normal rainfall
conditions are expected in most parts of the country in May with a slight delay in the onset of the rainy season over areas
under Type I climate. However, the overall rainfall patterns during the season are expected to be near average. Weather
systems likely to affect the country are the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), ridge of the high pressure area and the
southwest monsoon. Two (2) or three (3) tropical cyclones are likely to develop within the PAR. Surface temperatures over
most parts of the country will be near normal.
Less than 300 mm of rainfall will likely be experienced in Bohol, the extreme northern portion of Cagayan
and southern Palawan. The provinces of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Aurora, Davao del Norte and
Davao Oriental are expected to receive rainfall amounts from 601-900 mm while rainfall in the range of 301 to 600
mm is predicted over the rest of the archipelago.
July to September
This is the peak of the southwest monsoon. Eight (8) or nine (9) tropical cyclones are predicted to develop
within, or enter, the PAR with mean tracks passing through northern Luzon. Flash floods, strong winds and heavy
rains can be expected over areas affected by tropical cyclone activity during the period. Slightly cooler
temperatures will be experienced over most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely be near normal.
More than 1200 mm of rainfall can be expected in Benguet, La Union, western section of Pangasinan,
Zambales and Bataan. Rainfall ranging from 901-1200 can be expected in most parts of central Luzon, southern
Iloilo, and Camarines Sur. Likewise, rainfall in the range of 601 to 900 mm are expected in Region II, most parts
of Bicol, eastern Visayas, the western part of Mindoro, Negros Occidental, Agusan del Sur, Bukidnon, Davao del
Norte, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, North Cotobato and Lanao del Norte. Bohol, Cebu, Leyte, and Masbate and
the rest of Mindanao will receive rainfall amounts ranging from 301-600 mm while General Santos is expected to
have rainfall of less than 300 mm.
Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2005
October to December
The period signals the start of the northeast monsoon season in the country.
Four (4) or five (5) tropical cyclones are likely to enter the PAR with mean tropical
cyclone tracks across Luzon and Visayas.
Rainfall exceeding 1200 mm will be experienced in most parts of Bicol,
eastern Isabela and Quezon.
Northeastern Cagayan, most parts of western
Isabela, Samar and the eastern section of Mindanao is expected to have rainfall
amounts ranging from 901-1200. Rainfall over most parts of Cagayan, Masbate,
Leyte, Zamboanga del Sur, some areas of Bukidnon, Agusan and Davao will be in
the range of 601 to 900 mm. Most parts of Regions I, VI, VII, Mindoro, Palawan,
CAR, central and western Mindanao will likely have rainfall amounts ranging from
301-600 mm while central Luzon including Pangasinan and some areas of southern
Cotobato are expected to have rainfall of less than 300 mm. Near normal air
temperatures are expected in most parts of the archipelago.
The Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC) of the
Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, PAGASA will continue to monitor the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions affecting the country. Updates and advisories
will be issued as appropriate.
PRISCO D. NILO
(Deputy Director for Operations and
Services)
Officer-in-Charge, PAGASA
Issued: January 7, 2005
Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Center
website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
Press Release
PRESS RELEASE
Quezon City, July 31, 2002
EL NIÑO ADVISORY
Strong indications of warm episode (El Niño) continue to manifest as sea surface temperature anomalies for June 2002
increased to greater than 1°C throughout the equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperature anomalies also increased
throughout the central and east-central Pacific. Moreover, the Southern Oscillation Index has been consistently negative and
low-level equatorial easterly winds have gradually weakened over the central Pacific.
During this month, most parts of the country received near normal to above normal rainfall attributed to the presence of
tropical cyclones while Isabela, central Visayas and Mindanao except Misamis Oriental experienced below normal rainfall
conditions.
Most coupled model and statistical model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the end of
2002 and into the early part of 2003. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the forecasts about the timing and intensity
of the peak of the warm episode, all of the forecasts indicate that it will be much weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño. Thus, a
possibility of normal to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country for the next two months. However,
below normal rainfall is likely in Ilocos provinces and Cordillera region in August and in southern Leyte and northern
Mindanao during the month of September. Forecasts indicate that in the last quarter of the year, many parts of the country
will experience negative departure from normal rainfall condition especially in southern Tagalog, central Visayas and northern
Mindanao.
PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day rainfall / weather conditions, the large scale climatic patterns affecting the
Philippines and will release updates on the existing El Niño phenomenon from advanced global climate prediction centers.
Meanwhile, all concerned government agencies are advised to continue to take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential
adverse impacts of this El Niño event on Philippine agriculture, water resources, hydro power generation, health and
sanitation and other sectors.
LEONCIO A. AMADORE
Director
Issued by:
National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center
Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
Drought Advisory
EL NIÑO ADVISORY No. 7
Drier and warmer than normal conditions continue to be felt in some parts of the country. However, El Niño
indicators suggest a return to near average conditions over the Central Equatorial Pacific, ev en as sea surface
temperatures remain slightly warmer .
The weather systems that affected the country during March were the northeast monsoon, cold front, easterly
wave, ridge of high pressure area, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and one (1) tropical cyclone (TS
Auring, March 15-17, 2005). Below to way below normal rainfall were experienced in Region I (Ilocos Region),
Region 3 (Central Luzon), National Capital Region, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, northern portion of Mindoro Oriental,
Sorsogon, Palawan, most areas of Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Sultan Kudarat, and Region XI (Southern
Mindanao). The rest of the country experienced near to above normal rainfall.
Rainfall analysis for the past three months (Jan–Mar 2005) shows that Region I Palawan, Guimaras, and
Region XI are experiencing drought condition. In addition, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Iloilo, Negros Occidental,
Bohol, Cebu, and Zamboanga del Norte are under dry spell conditions.
Rainfall for April is forecast to be below normal in Ilocos Norte, Central Luzon, Misamis Occ, Lanao del
Norte, Lanao del Sur, Bukidnon, Maguindanao, North Cotabato and portions of Kalinga, Cagayan, Abra, Apayao,
Isabela, Benguet, Batangas, Mindoro Occ, Palawan, Leyte, Western Samar, Misamis Or, and northern part of
Zamboanga. Other areas will have near normal rainfall. The expected ranges of temperature are: for Luzon from
23oC to 35oC, the mountainous areas of Luzon from 16 oC to 25oC, Visayas from 23oC to 33oC, Mindanao from
22oC to 33oC, and the mountainous areas of Mindanao from 19 oC to 31oC. There is a slim chance of tropical
cyclone occurrence in the Philippine area of responsibility during the month.
PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day weather conditions and the large-scale climatic patterns
affecting the Philippines and will issue updates on ENSO conditions, as necessary. Meanwhile all concerned
government agencies are advised to continue implementing appropriate measures to mitigate the continuing
impacts of the weak El Niño 2004 on agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, health and sanitation,
and other sectors.
GRACIANO P. YUMUL, JR.
Officer-in-Charge
Issued: April 1, 2005
Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Center
websites: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab
http://www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
La Niña Update
Moderate cold episode (La Niña) conditions continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific during January.
Above normal rainfall with values more than 200% during the first month was experienced in large portion of the
country. Only western section of Luzon was observed to experience below normal rainfall. The rainfall –causing
weather phenomena that persisted and affected the country during the period were the tail-end of cold front, the
intertropical covergence zone (ITCZ), the enhanced northeast monsoon, and the passage of tropical depression
“Auring” (January 6-7).
Analyses of seasonal rainfall covering the period October 1998 to January 1999 showed that major parts of the
archipelago continued to have near normal to above normal rainfall conditions. Positive rainfall departures from
normal of more than 600 millimeters were observed over Benguet, Quezon, Mindoro, Camarines provinces, Albay,
Sorsogon and Catanduanes.
The current oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific together with the latest statistical and
dynamical model predictions, indicate persistence of cold episode. These conditions and based on the
manifestations of the past La Niña episodes in the country, wetter than normal weather condition is still expected
especially over the eastern section of the country although tropical cyclone formation within the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) in February is unlikely.
PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day rainfall/weather conditions and large scale climatic patterns that
affect the country. Meanwhile, all concerned agencies are advised to take appropriate measures to mitigate
potential adverse impacts of the La Niña-related climatic conditions in the country. The next La Niña Update will be
issued on the first week of March 1999.
Issued by:
National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center
Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
Press Release
Date: May 29, 2002
ONSET OF THE RAINY SEASON
The development of the so called monsoon trough and the occurrence of tropical cyclone “Hagibis” during the second
half of May 2002 at the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility triggered the start of the southwest wind
flow over the South China Sea and most parts of the Visayas and Luzon. Associated with the persistence of this
southwesterly wind flow are development of rainfall-causing convective cloud systems such as thunderstorms which
served as the precursor of possible start of rainy season. In May 28, a tropical depression “Dagul” was formed over the
South China Sea, thus reinforcing the actual onset of the rainy season from May 26-31. The usual start of the South China
Sea summer monsoon during the last 50 years occurs from May 16-20.
Large-scale rainfall-causing systems such as a tropical cyclone and the intertropical convergence zone will however be
modulated by the North Pacific high pressure area therefore some breaks in the rain period could still be expected before
the peak of the rainy season which usually occurs in July. The rainy season will start receding towards the ends of
August. A tendency for an early termination of the southwest monsoon season may be expected by the second half of
September.
LEONCIO A. AMADORE
Director
Issued by:
National ENSO Early Warning & Monitoring Center
Website: www.philonline.com.ph/~cab
Maraming Salamat Po !
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
August 16, 2002
•There is greater than a 95% probability that current
conditions represent the early stage of an El Niño
event that will persist through the remainder of 2002
and into early 2003.
•The strength of the El Niño is expected to be
significantly less than the 1997-98 event, and will
most likely be weak to moderate by
comparison.
•The associated climate effects are expected to be
generally weaker than those associated with the 199798 El Niño but may nonetheless be substantial in
some areas.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
e-mail: [email protected]
Location of Niño Regions
NINO 1+2
0-10S
90W-80W
NINO 3
5N-5S
150W-90W
NINO 3.4
5N-5S
170W-120W
NINO 4
5N-5S
160E-150W
N. ATL
5N-20N
60W-30W
S. ATL
0-20S
30W-10E
TROPICS
10N-10S
0W-360W
JUl 02
-0.8
21.0
0.5
26.0
0.9
28.0
0.9
29.5
-0.1
26.9
0.1
23.6
0.3
27.7
JUN 02
-0.4
22.7
0.7
27.1
0.9
28.4
1.0
29.6
-0.2
26.5
0.1
24.9
0.4
28.2
MAY 02
0.5
24.8
0.2
27.2
0.4
28.2
0.8
29.5
-0.1
26.2
0.4
26.4
0.3
28.7
APR 02
1.1
26.5
0.2
27.6
0.3
27.9
0.7
29.1
0.2
26.0
0.3
27.1
0.3
28.8
MAR 02
1.1
27.5
0.1
27.2
0.2
27.3
0.6
28.7
0.5
25.9
0.1
27.0
0.3
28.4
FEB 02
0.0
26.1
0.2
26.2
0.3
27.0
0.8
28.8
0.5
25.9
0.3
26.1
0.2
27.9
JAN 02
-0.9
23.6
0.5
25.1
0.0
26.5
0.7
28.8
0.7
26.5
0.2
25.3
0.2
27.7
DEC 01
-0.9
22.0
0.5
24.6
-0.3
26.2
0.3
28.6
0.7
27.3
0.2
24.4
0.1
27.6
NOV 01
-1.2
20.5
24.4
-0.1
26.5
0.6
29.0
0.6
28.0
0.0
23.9
0.1
27.6
OCT 01
-1.4
19.5
24.5
0.0
26.6
0.6
29.0
0.2
28.1
0.0
23.3
0.2
27.5
SEP 01
-1.1
19.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
24.3
-0.1
26.6
0.7
29.1
0.4
28.3
0.1
22.8
0.2
27.3
AUG 01
-0.9
19.9
0.2
24.7
0.2
26.9
0.5
29.0
0.2
27.8
0.0
23.0
0.1
27.2
TABLE T2 - Mean and anomalous sea surface temperature (°C) for the most recent 12 months. Anomalies are departures
from the 1971-2000 adjusted OI climatology (Smith and Reynolds 1998, J. Climate, 11, 3320-3323).
Forecast Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
SLP ANOMALIES
850-hPa ZONAL WIND INDEX
200hPa
WIND
INDEX
MONTH
TAHITI
minus
DARWIN
SOI
5N-5S
135E-180
140W
5N-5S
135W120W
5N-5S
165W110W
5N-5S
175W-
OLR
INDEX
5N5S
160E
160
W
TAHITI
DARWIN
JUL 02
0.6
1.8
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-1.5
-0.4
JUN 02
-0.3
0.8
-0.7
0.5
0.1
-0.5
0.1
-0.7
MAY 02
-0.7
1.2
-1.2
-0.5
-0.1
-1.0
-0.5
0.3
APR 02
0.0
0.6
-0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.5
MAR 02
0.3
1.7
-0.9
0.3
1.1
0.0
0.2
-0.7
FEB 02
1.6
0.2
0.9
-0.6
0.5
-0.6
2.3
-1.1
JAN 02
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.4
-0.6
1.0
0.2
DEC 01
-1.4
0.4
-1.2
-0.9
0.4
-0.2
0.8
-1.5
NOV 01
0.8
-0.3
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.1
OCT 01
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
0.2
SEP 01
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.6
-0.6
-0.1
-0.7
0.6
AUG 01
-0.8
0.7
-1.0
0.0
0.2
0.6
1.3
-0.2
0.5
Atmospheric index values for the most recent 12 months. Indices are standardized by the mean annual
standard deviation except for the Tahiti and Darwin SLP anomalies which are in hPa. Note that positive
(negative) values of the 200-hPa zonal wind index imply westerly (easterly) anomalies; positive (negative)
values of 850-hPa zonal wind indices imply easterly (westerly) anomalies.
Surface Isobaric Analysis
Surface Streamline Analysis
Satellite Image with Isobaric Analysis
Methodologies and Procedure
Local and Synoptic
Systems
Rainfall Analysis
Temperature Analysis
Global Numerical
Model
DRAFT
Revision
End-users/planners
W/
corrections
Forum discussion
& consultation
No Correction
Final Output
Min Temp = 23.3ºC
Calapan Station
Rainfall = 14.4 mm
Coded Messages of the observed weather elements
from the different PAGASA synoptic stations
Isohyetal Analysis
Information From Other Sources
• El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
• Forecast SST Anomalies
Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP)
• Climate Monitoring Bulletin
Australia Bureau of Meteorology
• El Niño Outlook
WMO/International Research Institute (IRI)
Near Real-Time Meteorological Data
• Rainfall
• Pressure
• Temperatures (Max/Min)
• Surface Wind Velocity
• Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
• Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
• Zonal Wind (Lower and Upper Levels)
• Tropical Cyclone
Min Temp = 23.3ºC
Calapan Station
Rainfall = 14.4 mm
Coded Messages of the observed weather elements
from the different PAGASA synoptic stations
Percent of Normal Interpretation
for Monthly Rainfall
PERCENTAGE
RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
way below normal
41% - 80%
below normal
81% - 120%
near normal
> 120 %
above normal